Snow/Ice warning: 26 / 27 / 28 Jan 2020

sdanseo · 25-01-2020 8:38am

highdef wrote: »

Sorry but where in the animation is there a suggestion of snowmageddon/Armageddon? The GIF suggests nothing more than wintry showers with some snow showers in places, mainly high ground and inland from the north and west coasts. There's nothing at all to suggest anything of significance bar perhaps in areas at an altitude that few people live at.

Am I missing something?

I was poking fun at the GFS showing quite a large amount of wintry precipitation, it goes completely overboard. The gif does plainly show widespread wintry precip for a few days (which will not materialise).

Maybe I didn't make it clear the snowmageddon comment was a tad sarcastic but I did follow by saying there's not a hope of it.

Kermit.de.frog · 25-01-2020 8:44am

I don't think the GFS is going over board at all meself. Looks close to spot on to me.

Sunday night needs to be watched though as a trough line crosses the country - this could bring snowfall to low levels particularly to the west, north west and north midlands and maybe further south too.

Jin luk · 25-01-2020 9:29am

This thread is overboard for a little dusting, rain with a mix of white flaakes is all anyone who isnt on mountain is going to get

Goldfinch8 · 25-01-2020 10:14am

Jin luk wrote: »

This thread is overboard for a little dusting, rain with a mix of white flaakes is all anyone who isnt on mountain is going to get

Personally I don't mind the thread. It is a weather forum after all. In a winter so far lacking much 'wintry weather', it is a little bit of added interest. We have just come through a fairly bland few days weather wise, pleasant for some including my own location in the West, but a little more miserable for others, in particular those in Donegal who endured a fair bit of miserable drizzle.
A few posters have said over the past few days that they would be happy with seeing the first few flakes of the year so I think that most peoples hopes are fairly well tempered here. It is not the easiest to get snow here at times and some of us even get a bit of a kick watching wintry showers coming in on the radar and wondering will they deliver anything white at all. As somebody who enjoys the weather, I am interested to see what tomorrow and the next few days will bring. Most of us don't expect much but it is the 'possibility' which is the fun bit!

esposito · 25-01-2020 10:22am

Jin luk wrote: »

This thread is overboard for a little dusting, rain with a mix of white flaakes is all anyone who isnt on mountain is going to get

We have to take what we can get! This will be mainly a west, northwest, southwest and midlands 3 day event. Snow occasionally getting down to lower levels. It will probably not amount to much accumulation given it’s coming from the Atlantic but it’s better than nothing.

We may get an easterly or northerly sourced event in late Feb or early March which might produce higher accumulations

Meteorite58 · 25-01-2020 11:27am

ARPEGE and ICON not showing the same cold air as ECM or UKMO. Noticed in the past ARPEGE can delay showing cold mid level and uppers right up to the get go.

EURO4 possibly over doing it a bit, still would favor the ECM

nthclare · 25-01-2020 11:31am

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

I don't think the GFS is going over board at all meself. Looks close to spot on to me.

Sunday night needs to be watched though as a trough line crosses the country - this could bring snowfall to low levels particularly to the west, north west and north midlands and maybe further south too.

You're always good with the snow forecast, usually when you suggest something concerning snow you're bang on target.

Jin luk · 25-01-2020 11:34am

Goldfinch8 wrote: »

Personally I don't mind the thread. It is a weather forum after all. In a winter so far lacking much 'wintry weather', it is a little bit of added interest. We have just come through a fairly bland few days weather wise, pleasant for some including my own location in the West, but a little more miserable for others, in particular those in Donegal who endured a fair bit of miserable drizzle.
A few posters have said over the past few days that they would be happy with seeing the first few flakes of the year so I think that most peoples hopes are fairly well tempered here. It is not the easiest to get snow here at times and some of us even get a bit of a kick watching wintry showers coming in on the radar and wondering will they deliver anything white at all. As somebody who enjoys the weather, I am interested to see what tomorrow and the next few days will bring. Most of us don't expect much but it is the 'possibility' which is the fun bit!

Come on though lets be honest how many times has kermit started a snow thread and it turns out to be a damp squib espescially when its almost a straight westerly ill eat my words if am wrong but the charts are not mpressive for this 1 look at MTs forecast he even keeps to hills and a small chance of low lying snow

Hooter23 · 25-01-2020 12:04pm

I cant wait for more imaginary snow to arrive;)

sparrowcar · 25-01-2020 12:10pm

Jin luk wrote: »

Come on though lets be honest how many times has kermit started a snow thread and it turns out to be a damp squib espescially when its almost a straight westerly ill eat my words if am wrong but the charts are not mpressive for this 1 look at MTs forecast he even keeps to hills and a small chance of low lying snow

MT uses the words "growing risk" at lower levels as below. He's not discounting it.

I see you're new to boards, your confidence in posting is confusing, have you had other accounts in the past?.....

SUNDAY will become windy and quite cold, with passing showers, these becoming increasingly wintry with a growing risk of sleet or snow accumulations mainly on hills in west and north at first, but also at lower elevations by later in the day (and overnight to Monday morning). Highs only 4 to 7 C. Winds southwest to west 50 to 80 km/hr.

Goldfinch8 · 25-01-2020 1:18pm

Jin luk wrote: »

Come on though lets be honest how many times has kermit started a snow thread and it turns out to be a damp squib espescially when its almost a straight westerly ill eat my words if am wrong but the charts are not mpressive for this 1 look at MTs forecast he even keeps to hills and a small chance of low lying snow

I am being honest when I said that I had no issue with this thread being here. I am certainly making no snow predictions myself. I see most snow threats in this country as usually a battle against being a damp squib and more often than not the latter wins. That's living in Ireland for you. I like you have far less confidence in a westerly delivering a little bit of snow, but I certainly don't mind this thread being in existence. There is the potential for some wintry showers and that's it. One thing is certain, we will not have to wait long for the mild stuff to come back.

Jin luk · 25-01-2020 1:22pm

sparrowcar wrote: »

MT uses the words "growing risk" at lower levels as below. He's not discounting it.

I see you're new to boards, your confidence in posting is confusing, have you had other accounts in the past?.....

SUNDAY will become windy and quite cold, with passing showers, these becoming increasingly wintry with a growing risk of sleet or snow accumulations mainly on hills in west and north at first, but also at lower elevations by later in the day (and overnight to Monday morning). Highs only 4 to 7 C. Winds southwest to west 50 to 80 km/hr.

No other accounts ive been a reader and not a poster but starting a thread for the chance of prob 3-4cm of snow at best is reaching tbh

Kermit.de.frog · 25-01-2020 2:11pm

Jin luk wrote: »

Come on though lets be honest how many times has kermit started a snow thread and it turns out to be a damp squib espescially when its almost a straight westerly ill eat my words if am wrong but the charts are not mpressive for this 1 look at MTs forecast he even keeps to hills and a small chance of low lying snow

How many times have I started a thread that has turned out to be a damp squib?

Stick with me, you'll be grand :cool:

OP stands as my forecast. Nothing has changed.

sdanseo · 25-01-2020 2:43pm

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

I don't think the GFS is going over board at all meself. Looks close to spot on to me.

Sunday night needs to be watched though as a trough line crosses the country - this could bring snowfall to low levels particularly to the west, north west and north midlands and maybe further south too.

Its precip indications seem to be very low res. The area it shows as snow is basically the area for potential and even then it's so marginal that the fact GFS always seems to keep us that bit colder than other models in the last few events has always seemed to result in dissapointment.

Not wanting to snow on your parade.. in fact for what it's worth, I'd love you to be correct, since it shows some potential for Dublin also

Oneiric 3 · 25-01-2020 3:23pm

The is the latest ECMWF run showing total 'accumulation' between now and late Tues.

As with other charts that show something similar, they are not to be taken literally. They just show forecast depths if every single snowflake were not to melt. Better to use this kind of chart for assessing which areas are more likely to see snow falling at any given stage between now and then rather than where it will shtick.

Kermit.de.frog · 25-01-2020 3:24pm

Donegal Ken · 25-01-2020 3:30pm

For Donegal the main snow accumulations will be around the hills but some accumulations occurring during dark hours also.

Main areas for Donegal see snowfall in this set up would be around the Barnesmore Gap, Drumkeen, mountain top Letterkenny, Meenaroy, the roads around Errigal.

Main risk for some lowland snowfall will be across Donegal, Derry, Fermanagh, Tyrone, Sligo, Leitrim, Mayo, Galway and Roscommon.

Some of the convective showers that occur will also more than likely produce lightning mainly across Donegal, Sligo, Leitrim and Mayo.

In the past these sort of set ups are very good for big lightning strikes and have found myself that north Sligo, Leitrim and south Donegal is a hotspot for lightning in a polar Maritime airmass.

As for Met Éireann warnings they probably will issue a Status Yellow snow and ice warning for western and northwestern counties but in this sort of set up the normally just issue a nationwide warning.

Snow Garden · 25-01-2020 3:47pm

I am beginning to believe....

JCX BXC · 25-01-2020 3:50pm

You can already tell this is a now-cast situation.

JanuarySnowstor · 25-01-2020 4:19pm

I'm surprised a snow ice warning hasn't been issued by Met Eireann yet. They'll surely issue one before the 6PM evening forecast!

Donegal Ken · 25-01-2020 4:54pm

With it not been a major weather event Met Eireann will wait closer to the time. Wouldn't be suprised if its tomorrow morning or close to midday Sunday before they issue any warnings if any.

JCX BXC · 25-01-2020 7:15pm

In these scenarios, it would be certainly wise, as any warning issued today would be utterly hyped by the media.

Then, those who don't get snow will blame Met Éireann.

nthclare · 25-01-2020 8:47pm

JCX BXC wrote: »

In these scenarios, it would be certainly wise, as any warning issued today would be utterly hyped by the media.

Then, those who don't get snow will blame Met Éireann.

You won't see much anyway with the salty air etc
But then again I've seen Milltown Malbay get pasted sometimes

pad199207 · 25-01-2020 9:01pm

Weather Advisory for Ireland

Cold and wintry weather will develop from Sunday evening. Showers of hail, sleet and snow will occur in places. Snow showers most frequent in Ulster and Connacht and especially so on high ground.

Valid: 18:00 Sunday 26/01/2020 to 15:00 Tuesday 28/01/2020

Issued: 19:00 Saturday 25/01/2020

JanuarySnowstor · 25-01-2020 9:14pm

Warning looks spot on tbh. I don't really buy it being a Northern event though. Quite clearly the coldest uppers late Monday and Tuesday are over the South!! Cork is poised late Monday

Gaoth Laidir · 25-01-2020 9:41pm

This was the setup at 18Z, with the cold fronts showing the colder and colder air back towards Baffin Bay. The GFS sounding for 53N 30W at the same time, which is roughly the air that will cross Ireland tomorrow night, shows its 850 hPa temperature around -13 C, surface temp 0 C, wbt around -2 C, around 508 dam. The air's going the long way around, heading first southeastwards, then northeastwards towards Ireland, so its sea track is a little longer than a direct northwesterly from Greenland. It has around 1300 km to go, so we'll see how much it modifies in that time. The GFS sounding for just inland NW Mayo midnight tomorrow shows that air has modified to a surface wbt of around +2 C. That would suggest too marginal except in the heaviest showers, but then it is only the GFS...

Gaoth Laidir · 25-01-2020 9:54pm

GFS route forecast for the route between Belmullet and Knock at midnight tomorrow night and 06Z Monday. Both shows snow melting in the bottom 1-200 m amsl, so a marginal situation in general.

squarecircles · 25-01-2020 11:04pm

Snow on high ground - Michelle Dillion.

complete scutter.

Gonzo · 25-01-2020 11:25pm

squarecircles wrote: »

Snow on high ground - Michelle Dillion.

complete scutter.

Sadly that is the case with most 'cold' zonal, it's mostly wet slop or if it's cold enough scattered snow showers that die off at night about 100km inland and lead to just temporary dusting. There is far too much sea, salty air and warm sectors to make most westerlies decent for snow away from the highest of peaks. The best scenario is cold bottled air from the east over us and an atlantic low cutting into Ireland but not letting the mild air in, those are rare as hens teeth. January 2018 also proved good with a very strong track of deep cold from Canada/Southern Greenland over Ireland and was enough to produce snow showers, yet mild and windy enough to get them across the country intact. I feel this Monday/Tuesdays event will be nothing like those and a big disappointment for most of us here including many in the west who may be looking at some flakes over a very wet ground.

nacho libre · 26-01-2020 1:10am

I will be happy just to see falling snow at this stage. I think there will be a dusting of snow during the early hours of Monday in the west and north west. I still have a feeling we will get great synoptics for wintry weather in late February to early March-Mother nature likes to play tricks on us like that.

Kermit.de.frog · 26-01-2020 1:20am

Hopefully some will see snow over the next couple of days. I know it's frustrating with people being told different forecasts but that's because it's knife edge between rain and snow.

For the northwest you'll do reasonably well for snow out of this with a few cm by Tuesday night.

Elsewhere as mentioned by others it's a marginal set up but as per the OP if you get snow you'll get at least dusting.

As per Met Eireann it's always the west and midlands with the best chance outside of the northwest and of course on high ground.

It's a nowcast from tomorrow evening.

Fingers crossed

Meteorite58 · 26-01-2020 1:53am

IMO : ARPEGE and ICON not backing down one bit with the milder 850 hPa temperatures, on the other hand ECM, EURO4 and HIRLAM still maintaining their colder mid level temperatures.

UKMO showing a frontal system passing over the country late afternoon/ early night ,will be interesting to see what this produces early in the night, probably rain and sleety mix low down in areas and a bit more like snow on higher terrain more so in the W, NW and N, air mass should get colder as the night progresses, the Trough that follows close behind tomorrow night and the shower field with it giving best chance of producing snow, more so on higher ground. Might snow lower down but will it stick ? don't think much lasting long at sea level if it makes it down that far but wouldn't be surprised to see reports of some snow lower down early Monday morning in the W and NW and more so snow covered roads on hills in the W, NW, N on Monday morning and the highest roads in the SW perhaps like the county bounds on the Killarney to Cork road.

One thing the models seem to agree on is a bit of potential for some sporadic lightning, more so along the coasts and probably best chance up along the W and NW, tomorrow night with convective clouds in the mix should be getting reports of big hail showers into Monday. Plenty of wintry showers to follow on Monday with longer spells of wintry mix possible, higher ground in the the SW could see some small accumulations Monday evening into Tues.

Should be getting some reports of wintry showers in the NW tomorrow daytime, some of snow.

Windy along the coasts tomorrow evening and blustery overland for a time.

Would love to see EURO4 produce what it is currently predicting but think it is over doing it . Will stick with ECM on this one .

Currently moderate rainfall as the cold fronts pass over, 1.8mm so far, relatively mild at 9.2C. Whatever happens it's a good opportunity to focus on the weather for a couple of days and see how it unfolds and how the various models handle it.

These are just my thoughts be they right or wrong.

Pangea · 26-01-2020 9:48am

Hailstones are banging against the window I guess the cold air is here

Graces7 · 26-01-2020 9:59am

Pangea wrote: »

Hailstones are banging against the window I guess the cold air is here

Ah that reached you! Passed over here a while back; I recorded it on the winter thread..Just before 7 am followed by heavy rain and we have no mountains etc in view now .

Rodar08 · 26-01-2020 10:10am

Have been keeping a lose eye on the charts. Real knife edge stuff but I fear we’re falling on the wrong side of the edge .. last night I recorded a snowflake emoji at 21:00. I can report that this has now chanced to the rainy emoji. It’s a nowcast scenario that’s for sure.

Oscar Bravo · 26-01-2020 10:18am

9am
Knock Airport 3 degrees , dew point 1.

Be right back · 26-01-2020 10:27am

Pangea wrote: »

Hailstones are banging against the window I guess the cold air is here

Where's that?

watlantic · 26-01-2020 10:34am

Recent shower of soft hail in Westport. Temp.: 3,1ºC

amadangomor · 26-01-2020 10:41am

Would hail be classed as wintry weather? I've seen very heavy hail in mid summer. Maybe in this context it is?

JanuarySnowstor · 26-01-2020 10:56am

For Cork:

Showers kicking off this evening mainly rain and sleet reserved for the highest ground. Tomorrow afternoon is where our interest lies as a band of sleet and snow moves across the area after about 3pm leaving accumulations on high ground. Roads could quickly become hazardous during rush hour! Further sleet and snow showers through Monday night.
Tuesday will start quite icy with yet another band of showers crossing the area leaving further accumulations on high ground. Showers easing through the evening with roads becoming icy. Wednesday morning could potentially be very icy before a thaw sets in through the morning.

Overall a potent spell of weather though short in duration! As always the case higherground is key..

typhoony · 26-01-2020 11:03am

A couple of stations showing temp of only 3c this morning, that's promising for later when you consider the colder air hasn't yet arrived, I think this event could be a bit better than predicted. On the satellite there's a rash of showers out to the west in mid Atlantic, they have our name on it later this afternoon/evening, they could pack a punch also with thunder and lightning

Oscar Bravo · 26-01-2020 11:07am

Knock just 2 degrees at 1000. Certainly be some snow there overnight.

Graces7 · 26-01-2020 11:23am

Bitter intense cold out here. Almost hurts to breathe

Goldfinch8 · 26-01-2020 11:24am

Oscar Bravo wrote: »

Knock just 2 degrees at 1000. Certainly be some snow there overnight.

I also see Jou's station on the Roscommon/Mayo border that regularly updates in the current reports thread showed a drop from 4.2c to 2.9c in the two hours up to 9.26am this morning. Might indeed be a little more promising for those looking for some snow later. As ever it will probably be a borderline affair but a few tentative steps in the right direction this morning if you want to see a few flakes.

pad199207 · 26-01-2020 12:00pm

Status Yellow - Snow/Ice warning for Connacht, Cavan and Donegal

Tonight and on Monday morning, wintry showers will bring some accumulations of snow, especially on high ground.

Valid: 18:00 Sunday 26/01/2020 to 11:00 Monday 27/01/2020

Issued: 10:00 Sunday 26/01/2020

Oscar Bravo · 26-01-2020 12:12pm

Knock,showers of sleet moving in early tonight followed by light showers of Snow

EIKN 261100Z 2612/2712 22012KT 9999 FEW012 BKN020
TEMPO 2612/2616 4900 SHRA BKN012 SCT018CB PROB30
TEMPO 2612/2613 3000 -SHRASN BKN006 BECMG 2613/2615 18010KT
BECMG 2616/2618 16016G26KT
TEMPO 2620/2712 3000 SHRASN BKN004 SCT017CB
BECMG 2621/2623 20013KT TEMPO 2621/2712 20015G25KT 1000 -SHSN BKN002 FEW018

Graces7 · 26-01-2020 12:13pm

met ie advisory is now a Yellow Warning.. Connacht, Cavan and Donegal.. Under starters orders!

Jin luk · 26-01-2020 12:25pm

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

How many times have I started a thread that has turned out to be a damp squib?

Stick with me, you'll be grand :cool:

OP stands as my forecast. Nothing has changed.

At least 3 for the past 2 or 3 winters lol checked the weather again this morning the only chance we have of a shower up this end is from 7 to 11 tonight otherwise dry and frosty for 3 days

Meteorite58 · 26-01-2020 12:28pm

High cloud thinning out here near Tralee, 6.1C Plenty of showers out there to make its way inland later. Wind SW

pad199207 · 26-01-2020 12:34pm

Decent fall of hail in Kildare now. Roofs turning a little white with it. The excitement is surreal....

Snow/Ice warning: 26 / 27 / 28 Jan 2020

Comments