Recession predictions

Hairy Japanese BASTARDS! · 03-06-2020 10:22pm

Increased unemployment.
Another pension levy.
CGT / Inheritance tax to go through the roof.
Teachers will demand more money due to the restructuring of the exams (money which we won't have).
Public transport cuts.
More fuel levies.
More motor tax levies.
Cycling infrastructure will unfortunately suffer.

Poor_old_gill · 04-06-2020 7:01am

When the f*ck are banks going to be forced/encouraged to drop interest rates?
People paying 3% interest on a mortgage or 6/7% on a personal loan now is just crazy - especially with the economy about to tank.

Drifter50 · 04-06-2020 7:36am

CBear1993 wrote: »

Interesting thread. Working in the construction industry as a small subcontractor - own it with my father. I have a very negative outlook for the rest of the year unfortunately, despite always being a positive person.

Really finding it hard to see if we’ll make it to the end of the year- a lot of construction projects that were to go ahead pre Covid have all been shelved and clients are holding their money back now. Only construction projects that are going at the moment are ones that are already on site pre Covid.

Yep, I`d agree with all that. Have a look at the "buying/selling a house in the current climate" thread here and the way the banks are holding back completing mortgages, pulling back on approvals etc etc is an indicator of things to come. I`m in the contracting game too and while I`ve had stuff to do in the last couple of months on emergency call outs, most of the project work I had lined up have gone on the back burner. As we allegedly come out of lockdown, it appears at the moment I`ll have less to do. Also people are holding back on paying creditors, maintenance contracts are being revisited and held back

Zenify · 04-06-2020 8:34am

Poor_old_gill wrote: »

When the f*ck are banks going to be forced/encouraged to drop interest rates?
People paying 3% interest on a mortgage or 6/7% on a personal loan now is just crazy - especially with the economy about to tank.

A banks goal is to make profit, not to support the public during a downturn. We have higher mortgage rates because we dont repossess that many properties
from non performing loans. We also dont have very much competition in our banking sector, I've heard people mentioning that we dont allow competition in order to support our state owned banks.... not sure the truth to that though.

Poor_old_gill · 04-06-2020 9:04am

Zenify wrote: »

A banks goal is to make profit, not to support the public during a downturn. We have higher mortgage rates because we dont repossess that many properties
from non performing loans. We also dont have very much competition in our banking sector, I've heard people mentioning that we dont allow competition in order to support our state owned banks.... not sure the truth to that though.

If our banks are (majority) state owned then they should be used like any other lever of the state to help lessen the impending recession.

Lowering interest rates will put more money into peoples hands and thus increase the flow of $$.
Also if rates stay as high as they are then it's very likely that the rate of default will increase as we get deeper into this downturn

A crisis like this takes proper leadership & vision - not just leaving things as they are and hoping for the best

Geuze · 04-06-2020 9:51am

Poor_old_gill wrote: »

When the f*ck are banks going to be forced/encouraged to drop interest rates?
People paying 3% interest on a mortgage or 6/7% on a personal loan now is just crazy - especially with the economy about to tank.

Banks here must hold more capital against mortgages than in other countries.

So charging the same rate as elsewhere means less profit than elsewhere.

Charging more than elsewhere could even be less profitable than a mortgage abroad.

They have to hold more capital due to our bad debts and repossessions.

https://assets.gov.ie/6836/664f5174ebd34f7e938aea654bed6757.pdf

Poor_old_gill · 04-06-2020 10:07am

Geuze wrote: »

Banks here must hold more capital against mortgages than in other countries.

So charging the same rate as elsewhere means less profit than elsewhere.

Charging more than elsewhere could even be less profitable than a mortgage abroad.

They have to hold more capital due to our bad debts and repossessions.

https://assets.gov.ie/6836/664f5174ebd34f7e938aea654bed6757.pdf

With rates at 3% - you will see default increase.
This is what I mean by showing vision & leadership - the ability to see that household incomes are going to fall and making changes ahead of time is necessary here.

Not waiting for additional & inevitable defaults at 3% then having to hike up rates for others and seeing the whole banking sector in crisis again.

The economy is a long term play but the long term will never be realised if we cripple people in the short term

Looking at the factors that determine the mortgage interest rate in the doc you attached:

The return that shareholders seek - we are the shareholders and our returns will be diminished with inevitable defaults at higher rates
Operating costs - are falling as banks lay off staff
The cost of risk - this will only increase with higher rates and thus will lead to the example I gave above.
Support growth in new lending - if unemployment is high, interest rates high & disposable income low then who will be borrowing?
An expected ROE of 9-10% with a realised ROE of twice that of Germany? This is not necessary at all

There's almost a smug approach taken by banks here that 'well as we cant repossess then we'll just make everyone pay and that'll learn them' but that's all well & good in an economy that is growing but ours is screwed in the short term.

wassie · 04-06-2020 4:07pm

Zenify wrote: »

A banks goal is to make profit, not to support the public during a downturn. We have higher mortgage rates because we dont repossess that many properties
from non performing loans. We also dont have very much competition in our banking sector, I've heard people mentioning that we dont allow competition in order to support our state owned banks.... not sure the truth to that though.

There is nothing stopping new entrants provided they meet all Central Bank requirements.

My take would be that the competition is not interested in coming because the difficulties associated with repossessing homes. As a result, we have higher mortgage rates because of a lack of competition.

All the while the banks feed us all these 'reasons' why rates are higher that are unique to Ireland.

Geuze · 05-06-2020 11:36am

Both GDP and GNP grew in Q1, compared to 2019 Q4.

Although personal consumption did fall.

https://www.cso.ie/en/csolatestnews/presspages/2020/quarterlynationalaccountsandinternationalaccountsquarter12020provisional/

https://www.cso.ie/en/media/csoie/newsevents/presentations/Q1_2020_QNA_IA_Final.pdf

Geuze · 05-06-2020 11:38am

Let's assume sharp falls in GDP in Q2, but a slight rise in Q3.

Is a recession defined as two consecutive quarters of falling GDP?

We might have one very sharp quarterly fall in Q2, then growth?

If all the decline is concentrated into Q2, but 2020 GDP still ends up lower than 2019, is that a recession?

I assume it is.

Voltex · 06-06-2020 10:16am

Geuze wrote: »

Let's assume sharp falls in GDP in Q2, but a slight rise in Q3.

Is a recession defined as two consecutive quarters of falling GDP?

We might have one very sharp quarterly fall in Q2, then growth?

If all the decline is concentrated into Q2, but 2020 GDP still ends up lower than 2019, is that a recession?

I assume it is.

This is a weird one. The decline is the same as 2-3 negative qtrs wrapped up in 1.

Geuze · 10-06-2020 11:44am

John Cochrane on public debt and inflation:

https://johnhcochrane.blogspot.com/2020/06/perpetuities-debt-crises-and-inflation.html#more

Geuze · 11-06-2020 11:10am

We have moved slightly further into deflation.

CPI May 2020

https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/er/cpi/consumerpriceindexmay2020/

KyussB · 11-06-2020 11:14am

^^ Replacing debt with reserves/money isn't inflationary - bonds are already almost as good as money. The interest payments on bonds make them more inflationary over time than money alone, as they compel greater government spending than is needed (which means issuing more debt, which is inflationary etc.).

There is little difference between the perpetuities he advocates, and printing money - just that the perpetuities pay interest.

Think about it: If you have €100 worth of perpetual bonds e.g. printed on a certificate, you can exchange it just like money (almost). The money you exchange for the bond gets spent by the government, and the bond that you have of equal value (more even, given it pays interest) is almost just as exchangeable.

Mainstreaam economists like Cochrane don't have a very good understanding of this, due to holding neoclassical macroeconomic views.

Geuze · 23-06-2020 11:26pm

KyussB wrote: »

^^ Replacing debt with reserves/money isn't inflationary - bonds are already almost as good as money. The interest payments on bonds make them more inflationary over time than money alone, as they compel greater government spending than is needed (which means issuing more debt, which is inflationary etc.).

There is little difference between the perpetuities he advocates, and printing money - just that the perpetuities pay interest.

I think I see what you are getting at:

There isn't much difference between Govt bonds and central bank reserves?

They are both liabilities of the GG sector, as is discussed here:

https://voxeu.org/article/money-and-debt-paying-crisis

He compares the two liabilities.

Money and debt
Consider a consolidated balance sheet of the government and central bank. From this perspective, central bank money (reserves) and government bonds appear very similar. Both are liabilities of the consolidated government. Both are, ultimately, backed by the future flow of fiscal surpluses. Today, both carry interest (as monetary policy is conducted by paying interest on reserves). When interest rates are at zero, reserves and short-term bonds are very close substitutes in the portfolios of investors

Geuze · 23-06-2020 11:51pm

I am thinking about the close equivalence of Govt debt and CB reserves, as you suggested.

Govt debt is an asset of the general public, via banks/insurers/CU/pension funds.

Govt debt trades in a secondary market.

CB base money / reserves are an asset of comm banks.

Comm banks hold reserves, either because they have to (min reserves), or they choose to.

I have to think further about this.

KyussB · 24-06-2020 3:22pm

Short answer:
That's not quite what I meant, but is similar - bonds are just about 'as good as money' regardless - and I'm talking about money in general, not bank reserves.

The different types of risk between money/bonds don't really have a significant effect on this, outside of extreme circumstances - so day to day, they are practically the same - and both have practically the same effect on inflation when issued.

Ireland's banking closure in the 70's, provides a very interesting and useful way to think about this - when cheques/IOU's were exchanged as money:
https://www.bbc.com/news/business-40189959

They aren't government bonds, but bonds are a form of IOU/debt (and obviously a lot more stable/secure than in above article

) - and are exchangeable almost as good as money - making them just as inflationary.

Longer answer (picks apart the article, but risks muddying my answer, as it isn't directly relevant to your question):
That article has the problem of talking about the 'real equilibrium interest rate', which is based on unsound and empircally unsupported theory, that there is a 'natural' rate of interest at which economic activity is optimal (which, long-story short, leads to assuming a 'natural rate of unemployment' - i.e. deliberately leaving huge numbers of people unemployed, sometimes for years and years on end - which is economically/morally unjust).

This is part of neoclassical equilibrium assumptions in economics, which are disproved by the long-term reality of states of disequilibrium - e.g. caused by debt-deflation, and again cases like Japan (even referenced in the article, at not having met inflation targets for decades) - and because this is part of decisionmaking in how policy is made, it contributes to unjustified levels of unemployment.

Instead of using monetary policy and blunt tools like interest rates to manage the level of economic activity (which is incredibly inefficient, as raising interest rates to deflate overheating regions/sectors, also deflates regions/sectors that aren't overheating, which is critically relevant/important in the Eurozone) - fiscal policy should be used instead, which is far more efficient as taxation can properly be directed at overheating sectors/regions, and spending into programs like the Job Guarantee can permanently end unemployment, while boosting the private sector - which also makes fiscal policy better at managing inflation (due to directly targetting overheating sectors).

With that set of policy, the interest rate should be permanently parked at 0% - which would be the true 'natural' rate of interest. This sort of ties in with the part of the article you quote. The ECB will not be doing things this way, though...

I don't agree that reserves/debt are backed by the future flow of fiscal surpluses, but not important/relevant here. Nor that government bonds need to have a date for redeeming. You can also guarantee government bonds by allowing them to be used at face value for paying taxes (and limits can be put on this, so your whole tax base isn't made up of bonds), mostly eliminating default risk (on the principal anyway). Inflation risk - due to what I describe above of fiscal policy being a better tool for inflation management - isn't solely determined by monetary policy either.

Snow Garden · 24-06-2020 9:02pm

I am convinced that we will see massive redundancies when the Covid payments end. It will be scary.
I already know a few companies that are waiting to pull the trigger.

Geuze · 25-06-2020 10:54am

KyussB wrote: »

That article has the problem of talking about the 'real equilibrium interest rate', which is based on unsound and empircally unsupported theory, that there is a 'natural' rate of interest at which economic activity is optimal (which, long-story short, leads to assuming a 'natural rate of unemployment' - i.e. deliberately leaving huge numbers of people unemployed, sometimes for years and years on end - which is economically/morally unjust).

Off-topic, but the natural rate of unemployment does not means "large numbers unemployed for years and years".

A typical natural rate of UN might be 4-5% of the labour force.

Of these, maybe typically 25% are LT unemployed.

So maybe 1% of the labour force is LT unemployed.

https://data.oecd.org/unemp/long-term-unemployment-rate.htm

It's safe to assume that these people are unskilled / need re-training, etc.

I see LT UN at 10% of UN in Swedeen, so that means that approx 0.5% of the LF are LT UN.

Roger the cabin boy · 25-06-2020 12:22pm

Snow Garden wrote: »

I am convinced that we will see massive redundancies when the Covid payments end. It will be scary.
I already know a few companies that are waiting to pull the trigger.

I get this feeling as well. I am just tempering it with a notion that i am being over pessimistic.

Deub · 25-06-2020 12:36pm

Roger the cabin boy wrote: »

I get this feeling as well. I am just tempering it with a notion that i am being over pessimistic.

Not related to jobs in Ireland but you have this thread on Twitter that gives you a first idea:

https://twitter.com/NorthmanTrader/status/1259965427679182848

KyussB · 25-06-2020 12:50pm

Geuze wrote: »

Off-topic, but the natural rate of unemployment does not means "large numbers unemployed for years and years".

A typical natural rate of UN might be 4-5% of the labour force.

Of these, maybe typically 25% are LT unemployed.

So maybe 1% of the labour force is LT unemployed.

https://data.oecd.org/unemp/long-term-unemployment-rate.htm

It's safe to assume that these people are unskilled / need re-training, etc.

I see LT UN at 10% of UN in Swedeen, so that means that approx 0.5% of the LF are LT UN.

Unemployment should be little above 2% in a state with a Job Guarantee. There should be no underemployment, no seasonal unemployment, no cyclical unemployment - and the labour market should be tight enough, so that businesses will have to compete for workers, making them less able to discriminate (e.g. against unionized workers) nor externalize the cost of training/upskilling to workers and the state (the common case of the business who "can't find any workers

", when they are demanding a masters/PhD and 10+ years experience, for entry-level pay).

There are a lot of problems with traditional concepts of Full Employment, and e.g. the concept of structural unemployment hides nearly the entire politicized issue of conflict between business and labour, and takes a business-centric point of view - as if businesses shouldn't be paying for upskilling/training - as if businesses don't use the threat of unemployment as leverage against labour (thus giving a very strong motivate for wanting to stay below Full Employment) - as if there aren't things businesses unneccessarily discriminate against in hiring (unionized workers, socioeconomic background, political views, being too uppity about labour conditons/pay etc.).

So ya, I don't agree with the traditional view of Full Employment

Unemployment rates of 4-5% are way too high, and I don't view them as Full Employment at all.

Roger the cabin boy · 25-06-2020 1:27pm

Deub wrote: »

Not related to jobs in Ireland but you have this thread on Twitter that gives you a first idea:

https://twitter.com/NorthmanTrader/status/1259965427679182848

Jeypers.

Once the Covid payments end, its going to be interesting.

Xmas should be a hoot....

Wanderer78 · 25-06-2020 1:31pm

Roger the cabin boy wrote: »

Jeypers.

Once the Covid payments end, its going to be interesting.

Xmas should be a hoot....

christmas could be scary for many

25-06-2020 2:14pm

Wanderer78 wrote: »

christmas could be scary for many

Scary for parents of "Little darlings" who want the power rangers tigerzord.

Smyths take stock of 3 for all stores nationwide.

Wanderer78 · 25-06-2020 2:15pm

Deleted User wrote: »

Scary for parents of "Little darlings" who want the power rangers tigerzord.

Smyths take stock of 3 for all stores nationwide.

scary for parents that find themselves outta work more like

Roger the cabin boy · 25-06-2020 4:36pm

Wanderer78 wrote: »

scary for parents that find themselves outta work more like

Scary for the country.

Its a major revenue generator for a lot of business.
If Covid is going to continue to dampen economic activity through the summer/Autumn, Xmas will be a sorry affair this year and it will be carnage in the jobs market.

Ask yourself, why we are exiting lockdown without any evidence whatsoever that Covid has been eliminated. Its because we are now at the point where economically, we have no choice.

The last 3 months were the easy bit. Now its time for the difficult stuff.

Snow Garden · 25-06-2020 4:48pm

Roger the cabin boy wrote: »

Scary for the country.

Its a major revenue generator for a lot of business.
If Covid is going to continue to dampen economic activity through the summer/Autumn, Xmas will be a sorry affair this year and it will be carnage in the jobs market.

Ask yourself, why we are exiting lockdown without any evidence whatsoever that Covid has been eliminated. Its because we are now at the point where economically, we have no choice.

The last 3 months were the easy bit. Now its time for the difficult stuff.

Absolutely and I am not sure our politicians or media are focusing on the economic damage looming. The Irish economy is being artificially enhanced using massive borrowing (30bn in 2020?) but they need to analyse fully what the fallout will be after the Covid payments end and prepare an action plan for it. Not the program for government nonsense.

zerosugarbuzz · 25-06-2020 6:37pm

Roger the cabin boy wrote: »

Scary for the country.

Its a major revenue generator for a lot of business.
If Covid is going to continue to dampen economic activity through the summer/Autumn, Xmas will be a sorry affair this year and it will be carnage in the jobs market.

Ask yourself, why we are exiting lockdown without any evidence whatsoever that Covid has been eliminated. Its because we are now at the point where economically, we have no choice.

The last 3 months were the easy bit. Now its time for the difficult stuff.

Jeees, Id say you're the fun one at a party.

lisasimpson · 25-06-2020 11:15pm

I dont think we will see the full impact until Q4 this year and the 1st quarter next year.
Since the start of covid the following headline job losses (yes some of these were going to happen regardless)
Debenhams
Oasis
Wearhouse
Ryanair
Air Lingus
DAA job losses, career breaks etc
Sam Mcculeys beauty division of stores not re opening
Number of job losses in local/regional newspapers
Muckross House Heritage group
Bewleys Cafe on Grafton st.
Jam cafe group headquartered in Kenmare.(cork/kerry people would be familar with)
Fexco in Kenmare..

Not to meant the number of pubs restaurants that wont open. Private bus companies, theater staff and the live entertain music scene in general.
HSBC announced they paused their global review a few months back but last week announces they will resume this review..bound to impact Irish operations

This time round its not as easy to feck off to australia like after 2007. Major job losses announced over there the last week or 2

Snow Garden · 26-06-2020 11:40am

lisasimpson wrote: »

I dont think we will see the full impact until Q4 this year and the 1st quarter next year....

You took the words right out of my mouth. I have been saying this for months. We will not see the real economic impact of all this until Q1 2021. The economy has hit a wall and it is being artificially kept afloat (using 30bn of loans). Those subsidies cannot last forever and then the we shall see the damage. The 2007/2008 crash took years to unravel and peak and this one will be much worse. You are right, the lack of an emigration escape valve will make it worse.
Also the recovery will be dependent on how quickly our trading partners recover and so far they are making a mess of it (UK and USA in particular).

Wanderer78 · 26-06-2020 11:58am

Snow Garden wrote:

You took the words right out of my mouth. I have been saying this for months. We will not see the real economic impact of all this until Q1 2021. The economy has hit a wall and it is being artificially kept afloat (using 30bn of loans). Those subsidies cannot last forever and then the we shall see the damage. The 2007/2008 crash took years to unravel and peak and this one will be much worse. You are right, the lack of an emigration escape valve will make it worse. Also the recovery will be dependent on how quickly our trading partners recover and so far they are making a mess of it (UK and USA in particular).

The 30bn is probably keeping many businesses open, we need the government to continue borrowing or this wil turn out to be a very long and difficult downturn

Deub · 26-06-2020 12:34pm

Wanderer78 wrote: »

The 30bn is probably keeping many businesses open, we need the government to continue borrowing or this wil turn out to be a very long and difficult downturn

But government borrowing is just an advanced tax payment. There is a point where it makes more economical sense to stop subsiding businesses and just have an increase of people getting the dole, etc. Especially with the assumption that tax collection will decrease in the coming months/years.

However I agree that it was a good decision at the start but it could become the wrong one if it lasts too long.

AlmightyCushion · 26-06-2020 1:58pm

Wanderer78 wrote: »

The 30bn is probably keeping many businesses open, we need the government to continue borrowing or this wil turn out to be a very long and difficult downturn

I imagine they will keep borrowing but they will wind down the increased welfare payments and use borrowings for capital investment like public transport and housing. At least I hope they do.

combat14 · 26-06-2020 2:33pm

Wanderer78 wrote: »

The 30bn is probably keeping many businesses open, we need the government to continue borrowing or this wil turn out to be a very long and difficult downturn

all this borrowing is just subsidising over priced commercial and residential landlords

rents and rates are absolutely ridiculous we have learned nothing from 2008 recession

theguzman · 26-06-2020 2:52pm

The trouble with Socialism is that eventually you run out of other people's money. - Margaret Thatcher.

We should do nothing and let the market correct itself, there should be no bailouts or subsidies, the Covid Dole of €350 was a scandal. We should be slimming down Govt and only investing into infrastructure to build up the economy, not wrecking it with debt like this. What lays ahead now is far worse than anyone can even imagine.

Wanderer78 · 26-06-2020 4:46pm

theguzman wrote:

The trouble with Socialism is that eventually you run out of other people's money. - Margaret Thatcher.

....and the problem with free market libertarianism is its abilities are a myth, the market isn't actually fully capable of providing us with all our needs. Always interesting to see free market libertarians talk about money, when they advocate the markets money creators, I. E. Banks, can create as much of it as it wants via credit creation, which in turn just drives up asset prices, particularly related to housing.

The covid payment was not a scandal, but it was amazing to see a normally very conservative government, economically speaking realise, if we don't create money here via borrowing, our economy will crash, I. E. They done the right thing, in fact I think they should extent it, because it's looking highly unlikely the private sector is gonna be able to react to this downturn for a while. If you contract both private and public methods of money creation at the same time in a major downturn, expect big trouble

26-06-2020 5:40pm

theguzman wrote: »

The trouble with Socialism is that eventually you run out of other people's money. - Margaret Thatcher.

We should do nothing and let the market correct itself,

"Laissez faire" capitalism so:
Then there's a a brain drain of the entrepreneurs who emigrate so.

KyussB · 26-06-2020 6:35pm

AlmightyCushion wrote: »

I imagine they will keep borrowing but they will wind down the increased welfare payments and use borrowings for capital investment like public transport and housing. At least I hope they do.

If the current government coalition is approved today, they intend to balance the budget in as little as 2/2.5 years - which means (unless there is a V shaped recovery pretty much) we will very likely have austerity again.

They also have no intention of building enough houses to meet demand, judging by the plan they published.

Wanderer78 · 26-06-2020 6:42pm

KyussB wrote: »

If the current government coalition is approved today, they intend to balance the budget in as little as 2/2.5 years - which means (unless there is a V shaped recovery pretty much) we will very likely have austerity again.

They also have no intention of building enough houses to meet demand, judging by the plan they published.

i think if they default, they ll end up in trouble eventually at the ballet boxes, the youth know theyre being screwed, they will continue to go rogue if their most critical of needs, particularly housing, arent addressed

brisan · 27-06-2020 12:36pm

zerosugarbuzz wrote: »

Jeees, Id say you're the fun one at a party.

I would say he’s the truthful one at the party

Roger the cabin boy · 29-06-2020 8:09am

brisan wrote: »

I would say he’s the truthful one at the party

Remember Bertie?

brisan · 29-06-2020 8:36am

Roger the cabin boy wrote: »

Remember Bertie?

Considering Bertie was Charlie's apprentice I doubt anyone ever believed Bertie to be truthful

29-06-2020 8:42am

Retail Stores and fast food restaurants are going to treat the market audience here more than ever before like children in their advertising campaigns.

Macdonalds are a shining example here: Just watch their TV ad.

combat14 · 29-06-2020 9:59am

Snow Garden wrote: »

I am convinced that we will see massive redundancies when the Covid payments end. It will be scary.
I already know a few companies that are waiting to pull the trigger.

job losses and lots of pay cuts too
all before the green party taxes kick In

fgordonie · 29-06-2020 10:51am

There is an article on nielson.com that really concerns me from a company that makes its living from "forecasting" future customer sentiment.
scenarios-beyond-covid-19-rebound-reboot-reinvent

Horizion 3 is very concerning to me, we're 3 months away from it.

50% of my business is gone so I'm in Horizion 2 "Reliant on essentials" since the beginning of June.

If the car breaks down or needs a major service I'll have to get rid of it that'll put me into Horizion 3 "Survive on absolute basics", i.e. can I pay the rent and buy enough to eat?

The split between those who will get through the economic impact un-affected and those that will be impoverished is particularly interesting.

Roger the cabin boy · 30-06-2020 8:18pm

Airbus chop 15000 jobs.

Wanderer78 · 30-06-2020 9:45pm

Roger the cabin boy wrote:

Airbus chop 15000 jobs.

I wonder were some of them coming anyway due to the end of production of the a380

Snow Garden · 03-07-2020 11:37am

No 2nd wave is crucial to the economic recovery.

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/ireland-faces-deep-downturn-this-year-and-may-not-rebound-until-2024-if-there-is-a-second-wave-1.4294913

Ireland faces 'deep downturn' this year and may not rebound until 2024 if there is a second wave.

This warning is based on the worst-case scenario laid out in the Central Bank’s latest quarterly analysis of the economy. This scenario assumes the strict lockdown period has a more damaging impact on economic activity and that there is a resurgence of coronavirus at some point over the next year, with the economy contracting by nearly 14 per cent for 2020 and the Government’s budget deficit ballooning to €30 billion.

In a more benign scenario, the Central Bank predicts that the economy could rebound by 2022, provided there is a gradual reopening of the economy this year and no resurgence of coronavirus.

03-07-2020 11:40am

Snow Garden wrote: »

No 2nd wave is crucial to the economic recovery.

PRAY that there isn't a 2nd wave.

Hard to convince many "Koolkidz" though:

I was snarked at by another goon my age for wearing a "gas mask" ( it is an N95, good sir) in the Square Tallaght the other day.

Recession predictions

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