June 2015 Boards forecast contest

Well, for sure we reached 12 days on Saturday with Casement at 20.6 ... I am not sure about today (Sunday) anyone notice? Will check later. Think the next two days are a lock so either 14 or 15.

The IMT had reached 12.6 after Saturday, my estimate is that it will finish on 13.0 or 13.1 which is still below normal slightly despite this recent and future warmth.

Thanks, I see that Casement hit 20.5 on the early portion of the report so we can now say 13 with 2 to go.

After four weeks ...

IMT has struggled up to 12.7(4) and I continue to project 13.0 as the finish using 15 and 18 for today and tomorrow. This is 0.4 lower than our lowest forecast.

PRC is now on 64% with another rather dry week (70% although Cork did manage a normal amount). This won't change much as any heavier rain will probably arrive after midnight Tuesday. This will also be a bit lower than our lowest forecast which was 78% from 200motels.

SUN is now at 108% with the fourth week almost bang on normal at 98%. It would take about 6 hours daily today and tomorrow to maintain this average so it might fall back to about 106 if my figures have been accurate all along (and given that all data were available, they should be).

BONUS was 13 days after Sunday, appears to be 14 now and should end at 15. The location is entirely up for grabs because tomorrow looks likely to be warmer than the previous max of 22.6 and that was at Phoenix Park. I would say Mullingar might be the favourite although any station inland has a good chance.

Okay, the Monthly Summary has been published and here are the official numbers for June ...

IMT was 13.0 (actually 13.04 rounded down).

MAX is listed as 25.6 C at Phoenix Park on 30th.

MIN was 0.7 at Dublin on 9th, a new station record for June (opened 1942).

PRC was bang on 60%.

SUN -- I found that they have changed the format from a graph of the six stations in percentages to all eight in absolute numbers. At first I was quite stunned to see the numbers much higher than I was expecting but then realized it was hours and not percent. Anyway, as I had an accurate log of this going week to week, I looked up actual values on 29th and 30th and did a bit of a calculation (it was sunny in Dublin but mostly overcast in the west) and reduced the value of 108% that was current to 28th to a final value of 105%. In future if I am confronted with any problems on this, will be getting a monthly normal value figured out from weekly data and doing my own calculations.

BONUS -- As is already known from our daily log and chat about this, 15 days and the correct location Phoenix Park.

Scoring will begin as soon as I put a shirt on and finish this coffee.

Updated annual scoring Jan to June 2015


FORECASTER __________ Jan _ Feb_ Mar _ Apr_ May _ Jun __ 2015 Total (rank) __ best 5/6 (rank)

Jpmarn ________________64 _ 57 _ 71 _ 78 _ 82 _ 67 _____ 419 (1) ______ 362 (1)
M.T. Cranium ___________ 68 _ 17 _ 71 _ 86 _ 62 _ 70 _____ 374 (5) ______ 357 (2)
Rikand ________________ 84 _ 59 _ 48 _ 73 _ 54 _ 66 _____ 384 (t2) _____ 336 (3)

Con Sensus ____________ 70 _ 71 _ 63 _ 65 _ 58 _ 62 _____ 389 (2) ______ 331 (4)

Bsal __________________ 77 _ 55 _ 68 _ 50 _ 57 _ 71 _____ 378 (4) ______ 328 (4)
Lumi __________________68 _ 72 _ 59 _ 66 _ 58 _ 61 _____ 384 (t2) _____ 326 (5)
DOCARCH ______________75 _ 79 _ 40 _ 64 _ 36 _ 65 _____ 359 (6) ______ 323 (6)
MrSkinner ______________--- _ 71 _ 85 _ 54 _ 47 _ 59 _____ 316 (18) _____ 316 (7)
jd ____________________ 72 _ 61 _ 68 _ 62 _ 31 _ 50 _____ 344 (12) _____ 313 (8)
sunflower3 _____________ 69 _ 61 _ 59 _ 44 _ 66 _ 57 _____ 356 (t7) _____ 312 (9)
mickger844posts ________ 50 _ 90 _ 53 _ 61 _ 45 _ 57 _____ 356 (t7) _____ 311 (t10)
Harps _________________ 69 _ 57 _ 34 _ 70 _ 45 _ 70 _____ 345 (11) _____ 311 (t10)
lostinashford ___________ 56 _ --- _ 53 _ 64 _ 74 _ 62 _____ 309 (21) _____ 309 (12)
dacogawa ______________48 _ 62 _ 63 _ 77 _ 58 _ --- _____ 308 (22) _____ 308 (13)
Joe Public ______________69 _ 42 _ 64 _ 72 _ 39 _ 54 _____ 340 (14) _____ 301 (14)
Pauldry ________________51 _ 48 _ 70 _ 51 _ 67 _ 61 _____ 348 (9) _______ 300 (15)
Schadenfreudia __________61 _ 67 _ 53 _ 60 _ 58 _ 36 _____ 335 (16) _____ 299 (16)
John mac ______________ 73 _ 55 _ 58 _ 60 _ 50 _ 50 _____ 346 (10) _____ 298 (t17)
Tae laidir ______________ 33 _ 60 _ 46 _ 68 _ 68 _ 56 _____ 331 (17) _____ 298 (t17)
dasa29 ________________ 47 _ 69 _ 67 _ 45 _ 57 _ 57 _____ 342 (13) _____ 297 (19)
kindredspirit ____________ 63 _ 57 _ 52 _ 59 _ 47 _ 60 _____ 338 (15) _____ 293 (20)
waterways ______________--- _ 70 _ 58 _ 58 _ 40 _ 53 _____ 279 (23) _____ 279 (21)
omicron ________________41 _ 77 _ 40 _ 67 _ 49 _ 36 _____ 310 (20) _____ 274 (22)
rameire ________________ 55 _ 40 _ 46 _ 58 _ 61 _ 53 _____ 313 (19) _____ 273 (23)
200motels ______________30 _ --- _ 59 _ 65 _ 58 _ 40 _____ 252 (24) _____ 252 (24)
delw __________________ 48 _ --- _ 61 _ --- _ --- _ --- _____ 109 (25)
blue5000 _______________45 _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- ______ 45
BLIZZARD7 _____________ --- _ 31 _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- ______ 31
__________________________________________________________

This month I have re-ordered the table so that the best 5 out of 6 determine the order rather than total score. You can see your ranking in total score as well. Last month I mentioned that I would adjust the May scores down, but actually I added 2 points after looking more carefully at the minimum progression rule. It makes almost no difference except that it might determine whether May is used or not in the best scores. So your May score is now 2 higher than before (if you played and everybody who is active did have a score in May).

The ranks of Con Sensus do not alter your rank which explains why there are ties with Con Sensus that are not actually ties. But there are some ties between contestants shown with the letter t in front of the number.