June 2015 Boards forecast contest

M.T. Cranium

1. Predict the IMT, an average of five selected stations, which has averaged 13.7 C for the 30-yr period 1981 to 2010.

2. Predict the highest daily maximum at any reporting (met.ie) station.

3. Predict the lowest daily minimum at any reporting (met.ie) station.

4. Predict the monthly precip as a percentage of normal (for 11 reporting stations in met.ie Monthly Summary)

5. Predict the monthly sunshine as a percentage of normal (for 6 reporting stations in met.ie Monthly Summary)

6. BONUS -- Okay, let's sort out this alleged heat wave in June. Predict the number of days in June when any reporting station in the usual list of stations in "Yesterday's weather" on the met.ie site manages a maximum of at least 20.0 C. If your number is outside the range zero to 30, you cannot score the super-bonus for getting this exactly right and naming the station with the highest value. You don't have to predict what day that will be, and your regular "MAX" forecast will say what value you have in mind for that.

(Example of a bonus forecast, don't use this as any sort of a guide because I have not even looked into it myself yet, but 12 -- Shannon would work).

As there is a bank holiday (and snowstorm;)) on Monday 1st of June, the usual deadline of 0300h Tuesday may need to be extended, or at least penalties could be lenient, I will decide on Tuesday when I see how we are doing with entries.

pauldry

14.4...26.2....1.5....100.....100....12 oak park

M.T. Cranium

Good start there, will post one because I have big plans for next week (invading Russia, I hear this often works out well) ...

13.8 __ 26.4 __ 2.0 __ 080 __ 120 __ 13 Newport Furnace indeed

dasa29

14.0 __ 28.0 __ 1.0 __ 090 __ 125 __ 14 Mullingar

200motels

14.1__ 29.2__ 4.2__ 0.78__ 133__ 11 Mullingar

Bsal

14.0 __ 25.8 __ 2.7 __ 085 __ 104 __ 14 Oak Park

Tae laidir

13.9 __ 25.5 __ 3.0 __ 130 __ 110 __ 7 Phoenix Park

John mac

13.4...24.2....2.1....106.....95....4 oak park

Schadenfreudia

14.4.....27.5....4.0.....100.....120.....Casement, 16

Harps

14.1 __ 25.4 __ 2.0 __ 085 __ 110 __ 12 Claremorris

omicron

14.0...22.5....3.0....105.....110....8 oak park

DOCARCH

13.9 __ 26.3 __ 1.9 __ 97 __ 110 __ 12 Shannon

jd

14.3....26.8....2.4.....97....109....12..Oak Park

kindredspirit

13.7___27___2.0___95___120___Johnstown Castle...14

mrskinner

14.2.....26.6.....2......90....106....12 Johnstown

Rikand

14.0 ........ 25.5 .......... 1.5 ........... 110 ............ 120 ........... 12 Johnstown Castle

Joe Public

14.9...25.9....1.9....89.....129....9 Mullingar

mickger844posts

14.0 __ 25.0 __ 2.0 __ 095 __ 125 __ 11 Mullingar

sunflower3

13.9.....25.1.....3.0......98........104.......7 oakpark

rameire

Rameire 13.8.....24.8.....3.4......103.......98.......10 oakpark

waterways

14.0 __ 27.7 __ 1.8 __ 92 __ 112 __ 17 Shannon

Lumi

13.9 __ 26.1 __ 2.2 __ 95 __ 100__ 9 Oak Park

M.T. Cranium

Okay, looks like most of the regulars have remembered despite the distraction of the long weekend, but no penalties until 1500h this time, so basically a 5-point freebie for anyone who enters now until then or any time afterwards when smaller than usual penalties will kick in. To be fair, anyone who has entered can edit up to 1500h today without consequences. You won't need to post again, I won't harvest the forecasts until after 1500h (I had a look to see what sort of consensus was developing, basically none).

I will get a table together tomorrow perhaps, still have May to finish up yet.

lostinashford

14.4...25.7...1.2....110.....99....9 Oak Park

Sorry got distracted swimming/running the Cork marathon yesterday

Jpmarn

13.4 __ 24.8__ 1.5__ 120__ 105__ 10 Shannon

M.T. Cranium

Table of Forecasts for June 2015


FORECASTER _________ IMT__MAX__MIN__PRC__SUN____ 20C days, max loc'n

Joe Public ____________ 14.9 _ 25.9 _ 1.9 _ 089 _ 129 _____ 9 __ Mullingar
Scadenfreudia _________14.4 _ 27.5 _ 4.0 _ 100 _ 120 ____ 16 __ Casement
Pauldry ______________ 14.4 _ 26.2 _ 1.5 _ 100 _ 100 ____ 12 __ Oak Park
lostinashford __________ 14.4 _ 25.7 _ 1.2 _ 110 _ 099 _____ 9 __ Oak Park
jd ___________________14.3 _ 26.8 _ 2.4 _ 097 _ 109 ____ 12 __ Oak Park
MrSkinner ____________ 14.2 _ 26.6 _ 2.0 _ 090 _ 106 ____ 12 __ Johnstown
200motels ____________14.1 _ 29.2 _ 4.2 _ 078 _ 133 ____ 11 __ Mullingar
Harps ________________14.1 _ 25.4 _ 2.0 _ 085 _ 110 ____ 12 __ Claremorris
Dasa29 ______________ 14.0 _ 28.0 _ 1.0 _ 090 _ 125 ____ 14 __ Mullingar
waterways ____________14.0 _ 27.7 _ 1.8 _ 092 _ 112 ____ 17 __ Shannon
Bsal _________________14.0 _ 25.8 _ 2.7 _ 085 _ 104 ____ 14 __ Oak Park
rikand _______________ 14.0 _ 25.5 _ 1.5 _ 110 _ 120 ____ 12 __ Johnstown

Con Sensus ___________ 14.0 _ 25.9 _ 2.0 _ 097 _ 110 ____ 11 __ Oak Park

mickger844posts _______14.0 _ 25.0 _ 2.0 _ 095 _ 125 ____ 11 __ Mullingar
omicron ______________14.0 _ 22.5 _ 3.0 _ 105 _ 110 _____ 8 __ Oak Park
DOCARCH ____________ 13.9 _ 26.3 _ 1.9 _ 097 _ 110 ____ 12 __ Shannon
Lumi ________________ 13.9 _ 26.1 _ 2.2 _ 095 _ 100 _____ 9 __ Oak Park
Tae Laidir _____________13.9 _ 25.5 _ 3.0 _ 130 _ 110 _____ 7 __ Phoenix Park
sunflower3 ____________13.9 _ 25.1 _ 3.0 _ 098 _ 104 _____ 7 __ Oak Park
M.T. Cranium __________13.8 _ 26.4 _ 2.0 _ 080 _ 120 ____ 13 __ Newport
rameire ______________ 13.8 _ 24.8 _ 3.4 _ 103 _ 098 ____ 10 __ Oak Park
kindredspirit __________ 13.7 _ 27.0 _ 2.0 _ 095 _ 120 ____ 14 __ Johnstown
Jpmarn ______________ 13.4 _ 24.8 _ 1.5 _ 120 _ 105 ____ 10 __ Shannon
John mac _____________13.4 _ 24.2 _ 2.1 _ 106 _ 095 _____ 4 __ Oak Park

_________________________________________________________

The consensus (median of 23 forecasts or 12th ranked) is slightly tilted towards warm, dry and sunny despite the opposite kind of start. For the number of warm (20.0 +) days, the spread is from 4 to 17, the consensus is 11 and these are the locations favoured:

Oak Park _______ 9
Mullingar _______ 4
Shannon _______ 3
Johnstown ______ 3
Casement ______ 1
Claremorris _____ 1
Newport ________ 1
Phoenix Park ____ 1

dacogawa

Apologies, missed this month, could not be helped. best of luck everyone (apart from Con!)

M.T. Cranium

After one week of Junuary ...


IMT at 10.7 (brr)

no MAX yet above 20

MIN will probably come in lower than what I've seen so far (3 deg)

PRC at 141% of normal but that will be falling off steadily.

SUN at 116% of normal (finally a good thing we can say about June 2015)

BONUS -- Congrats John mac I believe.

John mac

1 in Dublin airport at 4am this morning

M.T. Cranium

Also 1 C reported at Dublin, Markree and Mountdillon at 0500h. Waiting for the exact value now.

rameire

Evelyn was on RTE news and said over night air temp at Dublin Airport at 0.7*c
Ground temp was at -3.0*c.

Expecting roughly the same tomight.