June 2015 Boards forecast contest

M.T. Cranium

1. Predict the IMT, an average of five selected stations, which has averaged 13.7 C for the 30-yr period 1981 to 2010.

2. Predict the highest daily maximum at any reporting (met.ie) station.

3. Predict the lowest daily minimum at any reporting (met.ie) station.

4. Predict the monthly precip as a percentage of normal (for 11 reporting stations in met.ie Monthly Summary)

5. Predict the monthly sunshine as a percentage of normal (for 6 reporting stations in met.ie Monthly Summary)

6. BONUS -- Okay, let's sort out this alleged heat wave in June. Predict the number of days in June when any reporting station in the usual list of stations in "Yesterday's weather" on the met.ie site manages a maximum of at least 20.0 C. If your number is outside the range zero to 30, you cannot score the super-bonus for getting this exactly right and naming the station with the highest value. You don't have to predict what day that will be, and your regular "MAX" forecast will say what value you have in mind for that.

(Example of a bonus forecast, don't use this as any sort of a guide because I have not even looked into it myself yet, but 12 -- Shannon would work).

As there is a bank holiday (and snowstorm;)) on Monday 1st of June, the usual deadline of 0300h Tuesday may need to be extended, or at least penalties could be lenient, I will decide on Tuesday when I see how we are doing with entries.

pauldry

14.4...26.2....1.5....100.....100....12 oak park

M.T. Cranium

Good start there, will post one because I have big plans for next week (invading Russia, I hear this often works out well) ...

13.8 __ 26.4 __ 2.0 __ 080 __ 120 __ 13 Newport Furnace indeed

dasa29

14.0 __ 28.0 __ 1.0 __ 090 __ 125 __ 14 Mullingar

200motels

14.1__ 29.2__ 4.2__ 0.78__ 133__ 11 Mullingar

Bsal

14.0 __ 25.8 __ 2.7 __ 085 __ 104 __ 14 Oak Park

Tae laidir

13.9 __ 25.5 __ 3.0 __ 130 __ 110 __ 7 Phoenix Park

John mac

13.4...24.2....2.1....106.....95....4 oak park

Schadenfreudia

14.4.....27.5....4.0.....100.....120.....Casement, 16

Harps

14.1 __ 25.4 __ 2.0 __ 085 __ 110 __ 12 Claremorris

omicron

14.0...22.5....3.0....105.....110....8 oak park

DOCARCH

13.9 __ 26.3 __ 1.9 __ 97 __ 110 __ 12 Shannon

jd

14.3....26.8....2.4.....97....109....12..Oak Park

kindredspirit

13.7___27___2.0___95___120___Johnstown Castle...14

mrskinner

14.2.....26.6.....2......90....106....12 Johnstown

Rikand

14.0 ........ 25.5 .......... 1.5 ........... 110 ............ 120 ........... 12 Johnstown Castle

Joe Public

14.9...25.9....1.9....89.....129....9 Mullingar

mickger844posts

14.0 __ 25.0 __ 2.0 __ 095 __ 125 __ 11 Mullingar

sunflower3

13.9.....25.1.....3.0......98........104.......7 oakpark

rameire

Rameire 13.8.....24.8.....3.4......103.......98.......10 oakpark

waterways

14.0 __ 27.7 __ 1.8 __ 92 __ 112 __ 17 Shannon

Lumi

13.9 __ 26.1 __ 2.2 __ 95 __ 100__ 9 Oak Park

M.T. Cranium

Okay, looks like most of the regulars have remembered despite the distraction of the long weekend, but no penalties until 1500h this time, so basically a 5-point freebie for anyone who enters now until then or any time afterwards when smaller than usual penalties will kick in. To be fair, anyone who has entered can edit up to 1500h today without consequences. You won't need to post again, I won't harvest the forecasts until after 1500h (I had a look to see what sort of consensus was developing, basically none).

I will get a table together tomorrow perhaps, still have May to finish up yet.

lostinashford

14.4...25.7...1.2....110.....99....9 Oak Park

Sorry got distracted swimming/running the Cork marathon yesterday

Jpmarn

13.4 __ 24.8__ 1.5__ 120__ 105__ 10 Shannon

M.T. Cranium

Table of Forecasts for June 2015


FORECASTER _________ IMT__MAX__MIN__PRC__SUN____ 20C days, max loc'n

Joe Public ____________ 14.9 _ 25.9 _ 1.9 _ 089 _ 129 _____ 9 __ Mullingar
Scadenfreudia _________14.4 _ 27.5 _ 4.0 _ 100 _ 120 ____ 16 __ Casement
Pauldry ______________ 14.4 _ 26.2 _ 1.5 _ 100 _ 100 ____ 12 __ Oak Park
lostinashford __________ 14.4 _ 25.7 _ 1.2 _ 110 _ 099 _____ 9 __ Oak Park
jd ___________________14.3 _ 26.8 _ 2.4 _ 097 _ 109 ____ 12 __ Oak Park
MrSkinner ____________ 14.2 _ 26.6 _ 2.0 _ 090 _ 106 ____ 12 __ Johnstown
200motels ____________14.1 _ 29.2 _ 4.2 _ 078 _ 133 ____ 11 __ Mullingar
Harps ________________14.1 _ 25.4 _ 2.0 _ 085 _ 110 ____ 12 __ Claremorris
Dasa29 ______________ 14.0 _ 28.0 _ 1.0 _ 090 _ 125 ____ 14 __ Mullingar
waterways ____________14.0 _ 27.7 _ 1.8 _ 092 _ 112 ____ 17 __ Shannon
Bsal _________________14.0 _ 25.8 _ 2.7 _ 085 _ 104 ____ 14 __ Oak Park
rikand _______________ 14.0 _ 25.5 _ 1.5 _ 110 _ 120 ____ 12 __ Johnstown

Con Sensus ___________ 14.0 _ 25.9 _ 2.0 _ 097 _ 110 ____ 11 __ Oak Park

mickger844posts _______14.0 _ 25.0 _ 2.0 _ 095 _ 125 ____ 11 __ Mullingar
omicron ______________14.0 _ 22.5 _ 3.0 _ 105 _ 110 _____ 8 __ Oak Park
DOCARCH ____________ 13.9 _ 26.3 _ 1.9 _ 097 _ 110 ____ 12 __ Shannon
Lumi ________________ 13.9 _ 26.1 _ 2.2 _ 095 _ 100 _____ 9 __ Oak Park
Tae Laidir _____________13.9 _ 25.5 _ 3.0 _ 130 _ 110 _____ 7 __ Phoenix Park
sunflower3 ____________13.9 _ 25.1 _ 3.0 _ 098 _ 104 _____ 7 __ Oak Park
M.T. Cranium __________13.8 _ 26.4 _ 2.0 _ 080 _ 120 ____ 13 __ Newport
rameire ______________ 13.8 _ 24.8 _ 3.4 _ 103 _ 098 ____ 10 __ Oak Park
kindredspirit __________ 13.7 _ 27.0 _ 2.0 _ 095 _ 120 ____ 14 __ Johnstown
Jpmarn ______________ 13.4 _ 24.8 _ 1.5 _ 120 _ 105 ____ 10 __ Shannon
John mac _____________13.4 _ 24.2 _ 2.1 _ 106 _ 095 _____ 4 __ Oak Park

_________________________________________________________

The consensus (median of 23 forecasts or 12th ranked) is slightly tilted towards warm, dry and sunny despite the opposite kind of start. For the number of warm (20.0 +) days, the spread is from 4 to 17, the consensus is 11 and these are the locations favoured:

Oak Park _______ 9
Mullingar _______ 4
Shannon _______ 3
Johnstown ______ 3
Casement ______ 1
Claremorris _____ 1
Newport ________ 1
Phoenix Park ____ 1

dacogawa

Apologies, missed this month, could not be helped. best of luck everyone (apart from Con!)

M.T. Cranium

After one week of Junuary ...


IMT at 10.7 (brr)

no MAX yet above 20

MIN will probably come in lower than what I've seen so far (3 deg)

PRC at 141% of normal but that will be falling off steadily.

SUN at 116% of normal (finally a good thing we can say about June 2015)

BONUS -- Congrats John mac I believe.

John mac

1 in Dublin airport at 4am this morning

M.T. Cranium

Also 1 C reported at Dublin, Markree and Mountdillon at 0500h. Waiting for the exact value now.

rameire

Evelyn was on RTE news and said over night air temp at Dublin Airport at 0.7*c
Ground temp was at -3.0*c.

Expecting roughly the same tomight.

M.T. Cranium

I think that I posted the "minimum progression" scores that come into play when raw scores are generally low, but that was several years back and I tend to go from my memory or whatever seems fair.

The reason for the minimum progression rule is primarily to equalize the monthly scoring so that it tends not to matter very much which two months you drop from your totals, also, to reward better efforts in extreme cases where our normal scoring rules would require a broader error category. It's one thing to be 15% out on 90% of normal PRC (worth 10/15) but if you say 140 when it's 174 as our May leader Jpmarn did, then I think you deserve more than the raw score of 4/15 anyway, and with that nobody else would have scored anything (even those who said 120 or 130). Then there was the Dec 2010 IMT and MIN which would have generally left the scores all near zero.

However, just to give a reference point that I may remember in future cases (the June 2015 chill), and as a comment on this case, sometimes the numbers are marginally close to the standard and so they don't all need adjusting. Anyway, from now on, these will be the minimum progression values and you can probably figure out your score for the June MIN from this:

IMT -- must match or exceed
... 23,22,21,20,19,18,17,16,15,14,13,12,11,10,9,8,7,6,5,4,3,2,1.

MAX,MIN -- must match or exceed
... 18,17,16,15,14,13,12,11,10,9,9,8,8,7,7,6,6,5,5,4,4,3,3,2,2,1,1

PRC -- must match or exceed
... 15,14,13,12,11,10,10,9,9,8,8,7,7,6,6,5,5,4,4,3,3,2,2,1,1

SUN -- must match or exceed
... 10,9,9,8,8,7,7,6,6,5,5,4,4,3,3,2,2,1,1

BONUS is always scored in a rank order system and usually no issues arise.

Now as I went through those I realized that the May IMT did not start from 23 as the top scores were 20, but if I go back and correct those it will simply add roughly equal amounts to all scores and there were a lot of ties near the top so I think the fairness factor there would say to leave them as is. Also I would benefit more than most, so I'm happy to leave them alone. There have probably been one or two cases in the past where technically, these rules could have kicked in and boosted one or two scores, but I might not notice unless the general run of scores looks way too low, then we start up the machine and spit out the scores.

At this rate, the MAX will be the next problem child in our scoring family, but maybe that will adjust itself later. So whatever else happens with the MIN now, I think you can determine your score. When there are ties, the unused numbers in the progression are bumped out. Example, let's say three forecasts are tied for 3rd best MIN, then the scores actually go 18,17,16,16,16,13 etc. ... There can also be cases where some raw scores break through the slope and would be higher than minimum progression, in which case, those scores stand. Nobody ever loses in the min-prog game. I'm actually on the short list to be the next FIFA dictator-general or whatever that guy is called.

John mac

0.7 Dublin airport 09-Jun-2015

pauldry

Day one of bonus

20.4c shannon

At least 3 or 4 more id say before a cold end to June

John mac

pauldry wrote: »

Day one of bonus

20.4c shannon

At least 3 or 4 more id say before a cold end to June

3 more and thats it :D;)

Jpmarn

pauldry wrote: »

Day one of bonus

20.4c shannon

At least 3 or 4 more id say before a cold end to June

1 day down hopefully at least 9 more days with temperatures over 20c

Schadenfreudia

All I need is for sixteen of the next 19 days to record 20c+ at Casement.

Slam dunk.

pauldry

Schadenfreudia wrote: »

All I need is for sixteen of the next 19 days to record 20c+ at Casement.

Slam dunk.

Alls I need is for the temperature to average 24 by day and 10 by night one 26.2c day, dublin airport to not exist. Sun to shine normally , rain to fall normally in near 2 weeks of 20c in carlow. Eazy peezy.

Tae laidir

21 yesterday. Claremorris anyone?

Tae laidir

Mullingar exactly 20.0 yesterday.
A few more next week please.

M.T. Cranium

After the second week ...

IMT now 11.3 with a somewhat warmer 11.7 mean (project this to be 12.5 within a week).

MAX so far 21.0 (Claremorris)

MIN 0.7 (Dublin) rather likely to hang in and scores are set anyway.

PRC now 73% of normal after an almost dry week (4% due to small amounts mainly in the south).

SUN at an impressive 138% of normal after the second week managed 161% of normal values.

BONUS sits at 3 days before today, could gain a few this week. Claremorris is the winning location so far.

M.T. Cranium

Bonus moves to 4 as of today, Monday 15th missed by 0.4 with Shannon at 19.6 the highest. Will edit in the details for today or perhaps somebody else will post them, at the 1500h hour I can see two stations at 21 C.

pauldry

Casement leads on 21.6c

Maybe pheonix park

Tae laidir

Phoenix Park 22.6 yesterday new max.

M.T. Cranium

Bonus has reached five days as Cork reporting 21 C at the 1500h reports.

By the way, in the unlikely event that the Monthly Summary reports a monthly max from a station that we don't see in the daily list (yesterday's weather) that will count for the actual max in the contest but not in the bonus, we'll go with our own log of events for the bonus. I seem to recall this happening just once in the past, those other stations such as Kerry airport might make it into the later Monthly Bulletin. Perhaps what I recall is when they surprised me one month with Phoenix Park before it got into the daily list.

Anyway, that's the ruling just in case. Even the more pessimistic readings of the current charts would probably allow for one or two more days so most of us are now in play as John Mac crosses his fingerrs and hopes for a lot of days at 19 C. One more after today and the lead swings over to Tae laidir and sunflower3 who guessed seven days, but Tae laidir also guessed Phoenix Park so at this point is eligible for the super-bonus. Sunflower3 has Oak Park in case one of the the next additions is warmer than 22.6 there. Then it's omicron at 8 days.

M.T. Cranium

Thursday 18th was a narrow miss for the bonus with 19.3 (JC) the max. Holding at five days.

Tae laidir

Bonus has reached five six days as Cork reporting 21 C at the 1600h reports.

pauldry

Safe to say 7 days now as cork n carlow 19c at 11am

Schadenfreudia

Yep, Phoenix Park is now at 20C - my predicted 16 is looking good :rolleyes:

Tae laidir

pauldry wrote: »

Safe to say 7 days now as cork n carlow 19c at 11am

Yes, Oak Park and Moore Park 21.8

Schadenfreudia

I doubt anywhere made 20 today; miserable midsummers...