July 2015 Boards forecast contest

Updates ... Friday 24th registered a grand total of five strikes, two in Wexford and two near the Meath-Louth border. As these are all borderline for counties I am going to score those three counties at three each which gets them honourable mention in our county by county log ...

DATE _______ TOTAL (land) STRIKES _________ Counties

01 Jul __________ 3
02 Jul _________ 20 ___________________ Galway (10 --> 4)
03 Jul _________ 12 ___________________ Waterford (4 --> 5)
04 Jul __________ 3
05 Jul ________ 220 ___________ Cavan (80-->100), Longford (30-->75), Monaghan (30--> 60),
______________________ Westmeath (20 --> 30), Louth (10--> 30), Donegal (30 --> 18), Offaly (10 --> 12)
06-15 Jul ______ 0-2
16 Jul _________ 15 __________ Waterford (10 ---> 13)
17-23 Jul ______ 0-2
24 Jul _________ 5 ___________ Wexford, Meath, Louth register min score of 3 (adjusted for area)

There appears to be some chance of Sunday and possibly Monday making a bit of noise in this contest, so stay tuned. Scoring this will be a nightmare but I brought it upon myself, so.

Yes -- the scoring is adjusted so that county size is weighted. Scroll back to middle of page one and you'll find a link that I posted for county sizes in square kms. Basically, the average is about 2500 sq km and I then adjust the count by the ratio of county size to that average (a smaller than average county sees an increase). In the case of Cavan on the 5th, I estimated 80 strikes and then adjusted that to 100 because Cavan is about 4/5 of the average size (so 80 x 5/4 = 100). This adjustment was made each time a county would score an adjusted total of 3 or more and you can see the results of that in the table.

Meanwhile, the update for the 25th (I suspect the days are GMT days which means they run 01h to 01h civil time) is as follows:

25 Jul ___________ 3 _______________ (Kerry had all three but the adjusted score is 2 due to size)

About 100 strikes were depicted 50-100 kms off the southwest coast so we may find that Sunday 26th registers a more impressive number.

Well, that worked out pretty nicely for me with plenty of lightning strikes on 28th in Wicklow ... here's my estimate of what happened, will consider any input.

27th ____________ 0

28th ____________ 70 ___________ Wicklow 20 ---> 25 Wexford 11

---

> 12, Kildare 8 ---> 12,
_____________________ Carlow 4 ---> 11 Dublin 3 ---> 9, Laois 5 --> 8, Waterford 5 ---> 6

Watch for updates on all contest data later today.

I will be posting the August thread in a few minutes, and the bonus will be essentially a real forecast this time, not speculation as usual. It hasn't been all that much work with the lightning, only two days really required much hunting on high-magnification maps, the rest were pretty much adding up single digit totals or maybe slightly higher a couple of times. I would imagine that Limerick and Tipps as well as Kilkenny do better most summer months than they managed this month.

It's going to be the 4th or 5th until we see the Monthly Summary official data, but from the daily and monthly data sections I have these estimates to confirm later:

IMT was 14.0 C

PRC was 151% (the final three days fairly dry)

SUN at 85% as final three days averaged 90% (29th was quite sunny in the south and west, otherwise rather cloudy).

We already have the MAX and MIN in earlier reports. There was no lightning reported on the 31st, so that can be given some scoring now.

Based on all that is known, these are the provisional scores for July. Several categories needed some help from the minimum progression rule.


Provisional scoring for July 2015


FORECASTER ________ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN __Bonus ____ TOTALS

Tae laidir _____________18* _ 15* _ 14* _ 14* _ 08 ___ 2 + 3 _____ 74
dasa29 ______________ 22* _ 18* _ 16* _ 06* _ 02 ___ 2 + 4 _____ 70
John mac ____________ 22* _ 10* _ 14* _ 11* _ 07 ___ 1 + 4 _____ 69
Joe Public ____________ 23* _ 14* _ 12* _ 11* _ 07 ___ 1 + 1 _____ 69
dacogawa ____________19* _ 10* _ 10* _ 14* _ 06 ___ 0 + 3 _____ 62
MrSkinner ____________12* _ 15* _ 18* _ 04* _ 08 ___ 3 + 1 _____ 61
kindredspirit __________18* _ 10* _ 15* _ 09* _ 05 ___ 2 + 2 _____ 61
pauldry ______________18* _ 12* _ 05* _ 13* _ 06 ___ 1 + 3 _____ 58
rameire ______________18* _ 14* _ 05* _ 10* _ 07 ___ 1 + 1 _____ 56
lostinashford __ (-5) ___ 20* _ 14* _ 06* _ 08* _ 04 ___ 4 + 4 _ 60-5=55

Con Sensus __________ 12* _ 12* _ 12* _ 09* _ 06 ___ 0 + 4 _____ 55

sunflower3 ___________ 08* _ 16* _ 08* _ 10* _ 08 ___ 2 + 2 _____ 54
jd __________________ 07* _ 06* _ 15* _ 12* _ 07 ___ 3 + 3 _____ 53
Lumi ____ (-5) ________09* _ 14* _ 15* _ 09* _ 07 ___ 0 + 4 _ 58-5=53
rikand _______________14* _ 12* _ 12* _ 07* _ 03 ___ 0 + 3 _____ 51
Bsal _________________12* _ 14* _ 06* _ 07* _ 05 ___ 0 + 4 _____ 48
M.T. Cranium _________ 05* _ 03* _ 12* _ 12* _ 06 ___ 4 + 4 _____ 46
Harps ___ (-5) ________ 12* _ 10* _ 10* _ 09* _ 03 ___ 1 + 5 _ 50-5=45
Jpmarn ______________ 02* _ 05* _ 12* _ 13* _ 10 ___ 0 + 2 _____ 44
DOCARCH ____________03* _ 10* _ 16* _ 04* _ 05 ___ 0 + 4 _____ 42
omicron ______________05* _ 12* _ 02* _ 11* _ 07 ___ 2 + 3 _____ 42
Schadenfreudia ________14* _ 07* _ 01* _ 07* _ 05 ___ 0 + 4 _____ 38
200motels ____________07* _ 01* _ 10* _ 06* _ 08 ___ 0 + 3 _____ 35
waterways ___________ 02* _ 12* _ 12* _ 01* _ 00 ___ 3 + 2 _____ 32
mickger844posts ______ 02* _ 14* _ 02* _ 04* _ 03 ___ 0 + 3 _____ 28

______________________________________________

* scores adjusted for minimum progression rule.

I would imagine that these provisional scores will become final since most of them are based on minimum progression so any slight changes in the final numbers will probably have no effect -- the IMT, SUN and Bonus can be considered final at this point anyway.

As most of the higher annual scores ended up below the average this month, I would expect the annual race to look much tighter when updated, but I will wait until these numbers are confirmed before doing that.

Meanwhile, congrats to Tae laidir, dasa29, Johnmac and Joe Public (who must be pleased with a score ending in 9) for leading the table.

Updated annual 2015 scoring January to July


FORECASTER _________ Jan _Feb_ Mar _Apr_ May _Jun _ Jul __ 2015 Total (rank) __ best 6/7 (rank)

Jpmarn ________________64 _ 57 _ 71 _ 78 _ 82 _ 67 _ 44 _____ 463 (1) ______ 419 (1)
M.T. Cranium ___________ 68 _ 17 _ 71 _ 86 _ 62 _ 70 _ 46 _____ 420 (5) ______ 403 (2)

Con Sensus ____________ 70 _ 71 _ 63 _ 65 _ 58 _ 62 _ 55 _____ 444 (2) ______ 389 (3)

Rikand ________________ 84 _ 59 _ 48 _ 73 _ 54 _ 66 _ 51 _____ 435 (3) _____ 387 (3)
Lumi __________________68 _ 72 _ 59 _ 66 _ 58 _ 61 _ 53 _____ 437 (2) _____ 384 (4)
Bsal __________________ 77 _ 55 _ 68 _ 50 _ 57 _ 71 _ 48 _____ 426 (4) _____ 378 (5)
MrSkinner ______________--- _ 71 _ 85 _ 54 _ 47 _ 59 _ 61 _____ 377 (17) ____ 377 (6)
Tae laidir ______________ 33 _ 60 _ 46 _ 68 _ 68 _ 56 _ 74 _____ 405 (11) _____ 372 (7)
Joe Public ______________ 69 _ 42 _ 64 _ 72 _ 39 _ 54 _ 69 _____ 409 (9) _____ 370 (8t)
dacogawa ______________ 48 _ 62 _ 63 _ 77 _ 58 _ --- _ 62 _____ 370 (19) ____ 370 (8t)
dasa29 ________________ 47 _ 69 _ 67 _ 45 _ 57 _ 57 _ 70 _____ 412 (7) _____ 367 (10)
sunflower3 _____________ 69 _ 61 _ 59 _ 44 _ 66 _ 57 _ 54 _____ 410 (8) _____ 366 (11t)
jd ____________________ 72 _ 61 _ 68 _ 62 _ 31 _ 50 _ 53 _____ 397 (14) ____ 366 (11t)
John mac ______________ 73 _ 55 _ 58 _ 60 _ 50 _ 50 _ 69 _____ 415 (6) _____ 365 (13t)
DOCARCH ______________75 _ 79 _ 40 _ 64 _ 36 _ 65 _ 42 _____ 401 (12) ____ 365 (13t)
lostinashford ___________ 56 _ --- _ 53 _ 64 _ 74 _ 62 _ 55 _____ 364 (21) ____ 364 (15)
Pauldry ________________51 _ 48 _ 70 _ 51 _ 67 _ 61 _ 58 _____ 406 (10) ____ 358 (16)
mickger844posts ________ 50 _ 90 _ 53 _ 61 _ 45 _ 57 _ 28 _____ 384 (16) ____ 356 (17t)
Harps _________________ 69 _ 57 _ 34 _ 70 _ 45 _ 70 _ 45 _____ 390 (15) ____ 356 (17t)
kindredspirit ____________ 63 _ 57 _ 52 _ 59 _ 47 _ 60 _ 61 _____ 399 (13) ____ 352 (19)
Schadenfreudia __________61 _ 67 _ 53 _ 60 _ 58 _ 36 _ 38 _____ 373 (18) ____ 337 (20)
rameire ________________ 55 _ 40 _ 46 _ 58 _ 61 _ 53 _ 56 _____ 369 (20) ____ 329 (21)
omicron ________________41 _ 77 _ 40 _ 67 _ 49 _ 36 _ 42 _____ 352 (22) ____ 316 (22)
waterways ______________--- _ 70 _ 58 _ 58 _ 40 _ 53 _ 32 _____ 311 (23) ____ 311 (23)
200motels ______________30 _ --- _ 59 _ 65 _ 58 _ 40 _ 35 _____ 287 (24) ____ 287 (24)
delw __________________ 48 _ --- _ 61 _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _____ 109 (25)
blue5000 _______________45 _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- ______ 45
BLIZZARD7 _____________--- _ 31 _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- ______ 31
__________________________________________________________

The table is ordered so that the best 6 out of 7 determine the order rather than total score. You can see your ranking in total score as well.

The ranks of Con Sensus do not alter your rank which explains why there are ties with Con Sensus that are not actually ties. But there are some ties between contestants shown with the letter t after the number.

The table generally tightened up considerably this month, many of those who beat Con Sensus in July were in the bottom half of the table previously and some have moved up as many as ten spots. Our table leaders generally fell back a bit and so there is a good race developing towards the second half of the contest.