July 2015 Boards forecast contest

M.T. Cranium

Predict the following stats and then ponder the bonus question ....

1. IMT for the five stations, 1981-2010 average was 15.2

2. MAX for the met.ie stations.

3. MIN for the met.ie stations.

4. PRC (rainfall) as % of normal for the eleven stations used.

5. SUN as % of normal for the six stations used.

6. BONUS -- We will turn to a new element this month, namely lightning, which is logged by met.ie in the "Past Weather" section under lightning.

Predict the date with the most lightning strikes on land in the Republic of Ireland. Then with reference to the traditional 26 counties name the county where you expect the most strikes. I will factor in the different sizes of the counties when awarding points.

Basically, for the date, it will be 5 points if you hit the date of the max, 4 points if you hit the second place date, etc, and these will also be reduced by one point for each day you miss, best possible score to count. And for the county, it will be 5 points if you are correct (note that this stat might not fall on the same date as the national max, depends on how things play out), and then 4 for second highest, 3 for third etc. And as mentioned, you are protected by a scaling factor that I will employ for the smaller counties.

Watch the thread for updates on counts of daily lightning strikes and which counties have significant numbers.

Enter by 0300h Thursday 2nd of July, or face the usual 5-pt half-day penalties. If there is a lot of lightning on 1st or 2nd, I will discount any guesses entered after the lightning occurs, for the 2nd, but you can play in real time using the 1st. I've noticed in past years that the last third of July seems to be a particularly active time for lightning so just because there's an outbreak next week won't necessarily invalidate guesses for later in the month.

Here's my very early estimates that I may change later, to give you some guidance on the template if not the details ...

16.0 _ 28.5 _ 4.5 _ 120 _ 105 _ 28th Wicklow

When it comes to the scaling, I will go with values derived from actual land area. And the question is sure to arise, lightning strikes off the coast will not be counted, the hatch mark has to be on land in the Republic at its central point to count.

Have fun and don't rush to enter, just wanted to let folks know in case you have holiday plans or whatever.

sunflower3

15.8 _ 26.3 _ 5.1_ 105 _ 95 _ 2nd Cork

200motels

15.9 _ 28.9 _ 4.9 _ 89 _ 94 _ 19th Wexford

omicron

16.0 _ 27.0 _ 6.5_ 110 _ 100 _ 25th Wexford

Schadenfreudia

15.5 _ 27.8 _ 7.0 _ 95 _ 110 _ 21st, Westmeath

pauldry

15.4_ 27.1 _ 6.2_ 121_ 103_ 31st Offaly

Bsal

15.6 _ 26.9 _ 6.0 _ 98 _ 112 _ 22nd Wicklow

dasa29

15.0 _ 24.5 _ 2.5 _ 90 _ 125 _ 15th Wicklow

Rikand

15.5 _ 27.0 _ 4.5 _ 95 _ 120 _ 21st Kildare

M.T. Cranium

This link will assist me (and perhaps you) in adjusting the numbers of lightning strikes in various counties.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Irish_counties_by_area

As the average county (close to the area of Roscommon or Limerick) has 2500 square kms, I will adjust each count by the required fraction, up or down, to that standard. It means that Cork's total will be divided by 3, Galway by about 2.5 etc. and some of the smaller counties will see a multiplier of as much as 3 times in the case of Louth. I'll work these out and use an excel table to modify the data as they come in. As for locating the strikes in the right county, you can check my estimates and raise any objections as we go along. Hopefully it won't be too big an issue. Looking forward to tracking this as it may have some applications to my research so certainly not a time waster for me anyway. And also, sticking with my posted forecast in post 1.

Some may be wondering, what if there's a big outbreak on the first? Well, you can scoop that real time information and guarantee yourself at least a medium score in the bonus, or tempt the fates and call for a larger total in the future. But what if you wait until late 2nd and use data from the 2nd? That may not be an issue but if anyone does reference past data on the 2nd (or later days) then bonus scores will be reduced by 50%. That does not apply to late forecasts which refer to the 1st, their penalty will be only the standard late penalty overall.

jd

15.9 _ 28.1 _ 4.1 _ 118 _ 101 _ 26th Wexford

waterways

Dear Mrs. M.T. Cranium, you must be very lucky to have a husband, who is baking special lightening cakes.

waterways

Is the national sea area of the counties regarding the lightening strikes included?

Rikand

waterways wrote: »

Is the national sea area of the counties regarding the lightening strikes included?

Question says " on land " so I'd guess no

waterways

16.5 _ 27 _ 4.5 _ 67 _ 135

Schadenfreudia

waterways wrote: »

16.5 _ 27 _ 4.5 _ 67 _ 135

I fear you have left some questions unanswered.....;)

rameire

15.4_ 26.9 _ 6.4_ 105_ 98_ 24th Tipperary

dacogawa

15.3 _ 27.5 _ 4.9 _ 135 _ 104 _ 20th Wexford

Joe Public

14.9 _ 26.9 _ 1.9 _ 109 _ 99 _ 1st Belmullet

Jpmarn

16.5_ 27.9_ 4.5_ 130_ 85 _ 22nd Dublin

John mac

15.0 _ 27.5 _ 4.2 _ 110 _ 98 _ 1st Westmeath

DOCARCH

16.1 _ 27.2 _ 3.9 _ 85 _ 110 _ 21st Westmeath

kindredspirit

15.4 _ 27.5 _ 4.0 _ 100 _ 110 _ 15 _ Kerry.

waterways

Schadenfreudia wrote: »

I fear you have left some questions unanswered.....;)

oops, ok
16.5 _ 27 _ 4.5 _ 67 _ 135 _ 27th _ Kerry

mickger844posts

16.5 _ 26.8 _ 6.5 _ 85 _ 119 _ 12th Waterford

mrskinner

15.6...26.6...3.6...86...96...16 Kilkenny

Tae laidir

15.4 _ 26.5 _ 4.2 _ 135 _ 95 _ 25th Carlow

Lumi

15.7 _ 26.9 _ 4.0 _ 100 _ 100 _ 23th Westmeath

Harps

15.6 _ 27.4 _ 4.9 _ 100 _ 120 _ 18th Cavan

lostinashford

15.2 _ 26.8 _ 5.5 _ 96 _ 115 _ 4th Wicklow

M.T. Cranium

Table of forecasts July 2015

FORECASTER _________ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN __ Lightning max

Jpmarn ______________ 16.5 _ 27.9 _ 4.5 _ 130 _ 085 ___ 22nd Dublin
waterways ____________16.5 _ 27.0 _ 4.5 _ 067 _ 135 ___ 27th Kerry
mickger844posts _______16.5 _ 26.8 _ 6.5 _ 085 _ 119 ___ 12th Waterford
DOCARCH ____________ 16.1 _ 27.2 _ 3.9 _ 085 _ 110 ___ 21st Westmeath
M.T. Cranium __________16.0 _ 28.5 _ 4.5 _ 120 _ 105 ___ 28th Wicklow
omicron ______________ 16.0 _ 27.0 _ 6.5 _ 110 _ 100 ___ 25th Wexford
200motels ____________ 15.9 _ 28.9 _ 4.9 _ 089 _ 094 ___ 19th Wexford
jd ___________________ 15.9 _ 28.1 _ 4.1 _ 118 _ 101 ___ 26th Wexford
sunflower3 ____________15.8 _ 26.3 _ 5.1 _ 105 _ 095 ___ 2nd Cork
Lumi ____ (-5) ________ 15.7 _ 26.9 _ 4.0 _ 100 _ 100 ___ 23th Westmeath
Harps ___ (-5) ________ 15.6 _ 27.4 _ 4.9 _ 100 _ 120 ___ 18th Cavan
Bsal _________________ 15.6 _ 26.9 _ 6.0 _ 098 _ 112 ___ 22nd Wicklow

Con Sensus ___________ 15.6 _ 27.0 _ 4.5 _ 100 _ 104 ___ 21st Wexford/Wicklow/Westmeath

MrSkinner ____________ 15.6 _ 26.6 _ 3.6 _ 086 _ 096 ___ 16th Kilkenny
Schadenfreudia ________ 15.5 _ 27.8 _ 7.0 _ 095 _ 110 ___ 21st Westmeath
rikand _______________ 15.5 _ 27.0 _ 4.5 _ 095 _ 120 ___ 21st Kildare
kindredspirit __________ 15.4 _ 27.5 _ 4.0 _ 100 _ 110 ___ 15th Kerry
pauldry ______________ 15.4 _ 27.1 _ 6.2 _ 121 _ 103 ___ 31st Offaly
rameire ______________ 15.4 _ 26.9 _ 6.4 _ 105 _ 098 ___ 24th Tipperary
Tae laidir _____________ 15.4 _ 26.5 _ 4.2 _ 135 _ 095 ___ 25th Carlow
dacogawa ____________ 15.3 _ 27.5 _ 4.9 _ 135 _ 104 ___ 20th Wexford
lostinashford __ (-5) ____15.2 _ 26.8 _ 5.5 _ 096 _ 115 ___ 4th Wicklow
John mac _____________15.0 _ 27.5 _ 4.2 _ 110 _ 098 ___ 1st Westmeath
dasa29 ______________ 15.0 _ 24.5 _ 2.5 _ 090 _ 125 ___ 15th Wicklow
Joe Public ____________ 14.9 _ 26.9 _ 1.9 _ 109 _ 099 ___ 1st Belmullet --> Mayo

______________________________________________

24 forecasts, median is average of 12th and 13th ranked (determines Con Sensus).

Counties selected for maximum daily lightning ...

Westmeath _ 4
Wexford ___ 4
Wicklow ___ 4
Kerry _____ 2
Carlow ____ 1
Cavan _____ 1
Cork ______ 1
Dublin _____ 1
Kildare ____ 1
Kilkenny ___ 1
Mayo ______1
Offaly _____ 1
Tipperary __ 1
Waterford __ 1

Now that I have amended the table of entries, there are three tied for top spot and I will score Con Sensus for any of those (let's hope it will be elsewhere).

pauldry

How does lightning prediction work MT? There were 2500 flashes over northern france july 2nd. What if theres that many. How u count?

M.T. Cranium

I will just be counting those hatch marks on the met.ie map, whether that's the total number or a scaled down version, it would be the same ratio to compare days. Also if it gets crowded on the maps, I can use large scale magnification, so we'll have to see what comes.

Here's the count for 1 and 2 July according to the maps. ... I will only list counties if any county has 3 or more strikes after adjusting to area ... that means 9 for Cork or 1 for Louth, etc. We will keep this table going day by day ...

DATE _______ TOTAL (land) STRIKES _________ Counties

01 Jul _________ 3
02 Jul _________ 20 ___________________ Galway (10 --> 4)

Schadenfreudia

Hmmmm....there is a very important name missing from the July forecast list

Joe Public

Schadenfreudia wrote: »

Hmmmm....there is a very important name missing from the July forecast list

Just as well he got in a provisional shot!

M.T. Cranium

Yeah, I even thought to myself, hmm there are 24 regulars, who forgot to post?

Will fix up that table and it may change Con Sensus slightly.

M.T. Cranium

Lightning tracker updated for 3rd, watch this post because I will edit in the 4th after midnight rather than posting again. The county numbers are adjusted by area so that the number of strikes per unit of area will be comparable in the table. See previous posts for some details on that. If we ever get to saturation coverage and I can't magnify the map enough to count the strikes, I will go from a reasonable estimate based on the reported totals. So far that has not been an issue.


DATE _______ TOTAL (land) STRIKES _________ Counties

01 Jul __________ 3
02 Jul _________ 20 ___________________ Galway (10 --> 4)
03 Jul _________ 12 ___________________ Waterford (4 --> 5)
04 Jul __________ 3


NOTE: IMT was 16.9 C after three days.

(On 4th, the met.ie map does not show about 10-20 strikes that I saw in real time on other lightning displays on meteociel ... but I am constrained by the rules to report what the source specified for the contest recorded ... I would say there would have been a max over Wexford in the weighted county numbers of about 5 or 6 ... hope this won't be an issue down the road if we see any really good outbreaks).

M.T. Cranium

Updated lightning tracker, Sunday 5th was by far the most active day yet ... heavy showers on Monday 6th had very few returns (post edit on 7th).

DATE _______ TOTAL (land) STRIKES _________ Counties

01 Jul __________ 3
02 Jul _________ 20 ___________________ Galway (10 --> 4)
03 Jul _________ 12 ___________________ Waterford (4 --> 5)
04 Jul __________ 3
05 Jul ________ 220 ___________ Cavan (80-->100), Longford (30-->75), Monaghan (30--> 60),
__________Westmeath (20 --> 30), Louth (10--> 30), Donegal (30 --> 18), Offaly (10 --> 12)
06 Jul __________ 1


note: the adjusted numbers are from my estimates of strikes by county to strikes per average county size -- Roscommon is just about the standard for average size (using 2500 square km). The counties are listed in order of this adjusted figure not the raw count. So at this point, Cavan leads.

Let me know if you think these are reasonable estimates, I am going from a total number that includes some outside of the Republic land mass.

M.T. Cranium

Next time I update the lightning tracker, I will add in

07 Jul ________________ 1

Meanwhile, the first seven days are in the books and we have ...

IMT at 15.8 C

PRC at 200% even.

SUN at 101% of normal.

Doubt that either MAX or MIN were set last week, we'll pick up on that later.

M.T. Cranium

This needs updating although nothing much has happened since 6th ...

DATE _______ TOTAL (land) STRIKES _________ Counties

01 Jul __________ 3
02 Jul _________ 20 ___________________ Galway (10 --> 4)
03 Jul _________ 12 ___________________ Waterford (4 --> 5)
04 Jul __________ 3
05 Jul ________ 220 ___________ Cavan (80-->100), Longford (30-->75), Monaghan (30--> 60),
__________Westmeath (20 --> 30), Louth (10--> 30), Donegal (30 --> 18), Offaly (10 --> 12)
06 Jul __________ 1
07 Jul __________ 1
08 Jul __________ 0
09 Jul __________ 2
10 Jul __________ 1

The IMT has dropped like a stone to 15.1 C. MIN on 9th of 4.0 at Dunsany (Grange). If MAX was that 24 deg reading on 1st then we're in trouble.

M.T. Cranium

Next update of lightning (non) tracker will show 1 measly strike for each day 11-13.

Perhaps Thursday will give us some action.

M.T. Cranium

14th also had no lightning activity ...

Meanwhile, second week data gives us the following:

IMT at 15.1 after a cool week (14.4).

PRC now at 161% with the second week a somewhat less objectionable 122%.

SUN has lost ground with the mean now at 74% after a week that managed only 46% -- the southwest was particularly overcast at about 20% of normal values.

I don't see any of these trends changing much in the near term with considerable amounts of rain likely to keep the values at least as high as now if not higher, and not a lot of sun expected either after today (perhaps 75% will be maintained anyway).

M.T. Cranium

No lightning reached land on 15th, meanwhile slightly lower MIN with Dublin reporting 3.9 C on 15th. DOCARCH had that value with just three forecasts lower. Meanwhile dasa29 has the lowest MAX forecast of 24.5 which is looking more like a winner every day.

M.T. Cranium

Finally some activity to update the lightning tracker ... only Waterford qualified on Thursday for the county census and it barely edged past Offaly on 5th into 7th place overall (after weighting for areas of counties). All the leaders remain from the 5th. As many of the guesses were in the last third of the month, lots left to decide on this bonus.

DATE _______ TOTAL (land) STRIKES _________ Counties

01 Jul __________ 3
02 Jul _________ 20 ___________________ Galway (10 --> 4)
03 Jul _________ 12 ___________________ Waterford (4 --> 5)
04 Jul __________ 3
05 Jul ________ 220 ___________ Cavan (80-->100), Longford (30-->75), Monaghan (30--> 60),
__________Westmeath (20 --> 30), Louth (10--> 30), Donegal (30 --> 18), Offaly (10 --> 12)
06 Jul __________ 1
07 Jul __________ 1
08 Jul __________ 0
09 Jul __________ 2
10-13 Jul ________1
14-15 Jul ________0
16 Jul _________ 15 __________ Waterford (10 ---> 13)

Tae laidir

ME forecasting lightening tomorrow.
Harps hopes it's centred in Cavan for bullseye.

Schadenfreudia

Tae laidir wrote: »

ME forecasting lightening tomorrow.
Harps hopes it's centred in Cavan for bullseye.

Cavan would be in the 25-ring; Westmeath is the bullseye!

Jpmarn

I hope Dublin will get the best or the worst of the lightning what ever way you put it today or tonight.

Schadenfreudia

Jpmarn wrote: »

I hope Dublin will get the best or the worst of the lightning what ever way you put it

Dublin would be the bedroom wall

M.T. Cranium

Despite the potential and radar appearance, only one confirmed lightning strike on land for the 18th. However, the system was not quite done at midnight so we'll have to see what the map for Sunday 19th shows.

M.T. Cranium

19th and 20th failed to register more than 2 strikes on either day, so on to the next event which looks like being around Monday 27th at this rate.

M.T. Cranium

After three weeks now ...

IMT has sunk to 14.7 after a very cool third week (13.8).

PRC back up to 170% of normal with the week at 187%.

SUN has improved to 82% thanks to almost normal amounts in third week (98%).

Lightning tracker saw no further action on 21st.