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View Poll Results: What will be average property price change by the end of 2021 (vs end of 2019)?
Increase 5 7.69%
Decrease 0-10% 24 36.92%
Fall 10-20% 24 36.92%
Fall 20-30% 10 15.38%
Fall Over 30% 2 3.08%
Voters: 65. You may not vote on this poll

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20-05-2020, 17:38   #16
Marius34
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Another report with House Price prediction, this one from ESRI.
https://www.esri.ie/system/files/pub...ns/WP661_0.pdf

Unfortunately they don't have base case scenario, but rather 2 scenarios: "V-shaped" & "Sluggish", which I believe would be equivalent of Optimistic & Pessimist scenarios.
In "V-shaped" scenario they see no change in price for 2021 Q4 vs 2020 Q1
In "Sluggish" scenario they see 12% decrease for 2021 Q4 vs 2020 Q1.
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29-05-2020, 11:38   #17
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3) Household Mortgage vs Household Deposits
Update for April. It has recorded a big increase in Household deposits (around €3 Billion), details below.
Loans for Private House Purchase:
2020 April - 73,277 mil (decrease -74 mil MoM & -925 mil YoY),
Private Household deposits:
2020 April - 115,978 mil (increase +2,981 mil MoM & +9,699 mil YoY)
https://www.centralbank.ie/statistic...ce-sheets-data

Last edited by Marius34; 29-05-2020 at 11:42.
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04-06-2020, 10:35   #18
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Mortgage Approvals 2020 April
Published Mortgage Approvals for April. First full month of the Lockdown.
"First-time buyer(FTB) mortgage approval volumes
decreased by 51.0% year-on-year to 1,034 while mover
purchase approval volumes decreased by 51.0%
year-on-year to 528."
https://www.bpfi.ie/wp-content/uploa...20-for-web.pdf
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11-06-2020, 13:55   #19
Marius34
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Just reminder, Poll on the TOP of this Thread will close today at 10PM.
This should give an idea of general consensus for this Group.
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11-06-2020, 14:49   #20
Hubertj
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8.2% believe prices will increase!!!!!!???!!!!!
i admire the optimism!
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17-06-2020, 11:16   #21
Marius34
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Today CSO published Residential Property Price Index April 2020.
Overly property price stable.
"Residential property prices increased by 0.5% nationally in the year to April."
"In Dublin, residential property prices decreased by 0.1% in the year to April "

https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpub...ndexapril2020/
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30-06-2020, 13:42   #22
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Mortgage Approvals 2020 May
Second Month of lock-down, as expected April-June should show very low number of Approvals before some kind of recovery.
"First-time buyer (FTB) mortgage approval volumes decreased by 66.2% year-on-year to 852
while mover purchase approval volumes decreased by 67.3% year-on-year to 424."

https://www.bpfi.ie/wp-content/uploa...t-May-2020.pdf
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30-06-2020, 13:50   #23
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3) Household Mortgage vs Household Deposits
Update for May. It has recorded another big increase in Household deposits (around €1,5 Billion), but not as big as in April.
Details below.
Loans for Private House Purchase:
2020 May- 73,177 mil (decrease -98 mil MoM & -1,123 mil YoY),
Private Household deposits:
2020 May- 117,490 mil (increase +1,483 mil MoM & +10,489 mil YoY)
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30-06-2020, 21:32   #24
Pivot Eoin
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Thanks Marius, very useful reports today.
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