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Residential Property Data/Statistics/Reports

Marius34

I'm creating a separate thread in order to share and discuss or dispute some Statistics, Reports, Articles etc. on Residential Property
There is a similar Tread "Property Market 2020", but it's extremely fast moving, almost impossible to follow (I lost the track), and with very little information towards Data/Statistics, Reports.

For a start some statistics and comparison of covid vs 2008 crisis on Irish Household & Construction.

1) Housing stock/Population

Housing Stock:
2008/09 - 1,960,000
2018/19 - 2,032,000
https://www.statista.com/statistics/525497/housing-stock-in-republic-of-ireland/
Population:
2008 - 4,485,100
2019 - 4,921,500
https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/er/pme/populationandmigrationestimatesapril2019/
Housing stocks per 1000 population:
2008 - 437
2019 - 413

https://www.centralbank.ie/statistics/data-and-analysis/credit-and-banking-statistics/bank-balance-sheets/bank-balance-sheets-data

2) Construction output:
Completion (inc. social housing):
2006 - 93,4 K
2007 - 78,0 K
2008 - 51,7 K
...
2019 - 17,9 K
2020 - 21,2 K

https://www.housing.gov.ie/sites/default/files/migrated-files/en/Publications/StatisticsandRegularPublications/HousingStatistics/FileDownLoad,20957,en.pdf

3) Household Mortgage vs Household Deposits
Loans for House Purchase:
2008 Mar - 125,091 mil
2020 Mar - 73,351 mil
Household deposits:
2008 Mar - 83,352 mil
2020 Mar - 112,997 mil
https://www.centralbank.ie/statistics/data-and-analysis/credit-and-banking-statistics/bank-balance-sheets/bank-balance-sheets-data

4) Sale Price:
2008 crisis: Property price reached Peak in 2007 Q1/Q2, ant started to fall almost a year before crisis.
2020 Covid: Property prices are overly stable before Covid since 2018.
Daft was the first to report Asking price fall in their 30 March report. Actual transactions still yet to see the Covid impact. Stable before Covid:
https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/ep/p-rppi/residentialpropertypriceindexfebruary2020/

5) GDP/GNP
GDP change: 2008 -4,5% fall, 2009 -5,1% (GNP over -10% for 2009?)
Ideally would be to see GNP change.
https://www.statista.com/statistics/375215/gross-domestic-product-gdp-growth-rate-in-ireland/
2020 current GDP forecast by central bank: -8,3%
https://www.centralbank.ie/news/article/press-release-qb2-2020-3-april-2020

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Comments

beauf

I would have assumed that all models have some basis in historical performance.

Since The impact of Covid is not unlike a crash, or some natural disaster, or war etc.

Likewise unemployment https://tradingeconomics.com/ireland/unemployment-rate

Marius34

1) Housing stock/Population

Housing Stock (based on GeoDirectory):
Increased by 16,600 in a year
2019 Q2 - 2,009,089
2020 Q2 - 2,025,732
https://www.geodirectory.ie/getattachment/Knowledge-Centre/Reports-Blogs/GeoView-Residential-Buildings-Report-Q2-2020/GeoDirectory-GeoView-Residential-Issue-13-2.pdf?lang=en-IE

Population CSO:
Increased by 55,900
2019 April - 4,921,500
2020 April - 4,977,400
https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/er/pme/populationandmigrationestimatesapril2020/

Housing stocks per 1000 population decreased:
2019 Q2 - 408.2
2020 Q2 - 407.0

beauf

Not really reflecting lock down yet.

Marius34

beauf wrote: »

Not really reflecting lock down yet.

sorry, this was not response to your previous comment, in case you though so.
I have just found out that there were a new annual stats on CSO about population, so added to updated my very first comment with one of the main indicators.
Yes, it doesn't reflect lock down.

beauf

I realise that. It was just an observation (obvious I suppose) on the figures.

Marius34

Mortgage Approvals 2020 July
Approvals higher from very lows of previous 3 month, but still 34% below Pre-Covid levels.
"First-time buyer(FTB) mortgage approval volumes
decreased by 28.9% year-on-year to 1,883 while mover
purchase approval volumes decreased by 47.4%
year-on-year to 750."
https://www.bpfi.ie/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/BPFI-Mortgage-Approvals-Report-Jul-2020-for-web.pdf

Marius34

3) Household Mortgage vs Household Deposits
Update for July. Another increase in Household deposits (around €1,9 Billion), and as well as increase in Loans (around €0,8 Billion)
Details below.
Loans for Private House Purchase:
2020 Jul- 74,224 mil (increase +834 mil MoM & decrease -323 mil YoY),
Private Household deposits:
2020 Jul- 120,241 mil (increase +1,940 mil MoM & +11,791 mil YoY)

Marius34

Mortgage Approvals 2020 August
Surprising increase in Mortgage approvals for FTB, but overall, including all segments, still 11% below Pre-Covid level.
"First-time buyer(FTB) mortgage approval volumes
increased by 1.4% year-on-year to 2,259 while mover
purchase approval volumes decreased by 17.8%
year-on-year to 1,000."
https://www.bpfi.ie/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/BPFI-Mortgage-Approvals-Report-Aug-20-for-website.pdf

Marius34

3) Household Mortgage vs Household Deposits
Update for August. Smaller increase in Household deposits (around €0,2 Billion), and decrease in Loans (around €-0,1 Billion)
Details below.
Loans for Private House Purchase:
2020 Aug: 74,149 mil (decrease -75mil MoM & decrease -1,497 mil YoY),
Private Household deposits:
2020 Aug: 120,241 mil (increase +243 mil MoM & +11,366 mil YoY)

Marius34

Mortgage Approvals 2020 September
It appears Mortgage approvals are close to the record high, since 2008 crisis.
"First-time buyer(FTB) mortgage approval volumes
increased by 33.7% year-on-year to 2,636 while mover
purchase approval volumes increased by 19.0%
year-on-year to 1,191."
https://www.bpfi.ie/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/BPFI-Mortgage-Approvals-Report-September-2020.pdf

Mortgage Drawdowns 2020 Q3
"Mortgage drawdown activity fell in volume terms by 30.3% year-on-year"
"First-time buyer(FTB) mortgage drawdown volumes decreased by 29.7% year-on-year"
https://www.bpfi.ie/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/BPFI-Mortgage-Drawdowns-Report-Q3-2020.pdf

Marius34

3) Household Mortgage vs Household Deposits
Update for September. Monthly Increase in Loans and Deposits.
Details below.
Loans for Private House Purchase:
2020 Sep: 74,402 mil (increase +253mil MoM & decrease -1,637 mil YoY),
Private Household deposits:
2020 Sep: 121,180 mil (increase +696 mil MoM & +11,829 mil YoY)

Marius34

Another forecast on residential property price.
This one from S&P.
Fairly stable across Ireland&Europe for 2020&2021, and increase from 2022.

https://www.spglobal.com/ratings/en/research/articles/201020-economic-research-pandemic-won-t-derail-european-housing-price-rises-11701524

Marius34

3) Household Mortgage vs Household Deposits
Update for October. Another major increase in Household deposits (around €1,7 Billion).
Details below.
Loans for Private House Purchase:
2020 Oct: 74,507 mil (increase +105mil MoM & decrease -1,484 mil YoY),
Private Household deposits:
2020 Oct: 122,917 mil (increase +1,737 mil MoM & +12,593 mil YoY)

Marius34

Mortgage Approvals 2020 October
Monthly mortgage approvals reached record high, since 2008 crisis.
"First-time buyer(FTB) mortgage approval volumes
increased by 30.6% year-on-year to 3,041 while mover
purchase approval volumes increased by 3.9%
year-on-year to 1,267."
https://www.bpfi.ie/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/BPFI-Mortgage-Approvals-Report-October-2020.pdf

Reversal

Marius34 wrote: »

Mortgage Approvals 2020 October
Monthly mortgage approvals reached record high, since 2008 crisis.
"First-time buyer(FTB) mortgage approval volumes
increased by 30.6% year-on-year to 3,041 while mover
purchase approval volumes increased by 3.9%
year-on-year to 1,267."
https://www.bpfi.ie/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/BPFI-Mortgage-Approvals-Report-October-2020.pdf

How does the year as a whole compare? Considering lockdown effects will have compressed mortgage approvals into the months brokers and banks are actually open.

"mortgage approvals are down by 19 per cent in volume terms and 14 per cent in value terms in the first ten months of 2020 compared with the same period in 2019"

So despite the spin, there are less mortgage approved buyers out there than there was in 2019.

Marius34

Reversal wrote: »

How does the year as a whole compare? Considering lockdown effects will have compressed mortgage approvals into the months brokers and banks are actually open.

"mortgage approvals are down by 19 per cent in volume terms and 14 per cent in value terms in the first ten months of 2020 compared with the same period in 2019"

So despite the spin, there are less mortgage approved buyers out there than there was in 2019.

Yes, it's lower if we compare a year as a total. There were 41.1K mortgage approvals between 2019 Nov - 2020 Oct. And 48.9K mortgage approvals for the same period year ago.

We don't know how many approved buyers are out there currently on the market.
I would think there are more approved FTB's, than a year ago, but less Mover Purchasers than a year ago.
In total, I think the numbers of approved buyers should be similar to 2019 levels.

Marius34

Mortgage Approvals 2020 November
Another month of major annual increase in Mortgage approvals. This time for both FTB and Mover purchase.
"First-time buyer (FTB) mortgage approval volumes
increased by 34.0% year-on-year to 2,826 while mover
purchase approval volumes increased by 23.5%
year-on-year to 1,373."

https://bpfi.ie/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/BPFI-Mortgage-Approvals-Report-Nov-20-for-web.pdf

Marius34

3) Household Mortgage vs Household Deposits
Update for November. Increase in Household deposits (around €0,7 Billion). And large decrease in overall Loans (around €1,2 Billion) likely once-off revaluation.
Details below.
Loans for Private House Purchase:
2020 Nov: 73,324 mil (decrease -1,183 mil MoM & -3,460 mil YoY),
Private Household deposits:
2020 Nov: 123,602 mil (increase +685 mil MoM & +13,330 mil YoY)

Marius34

Mortgage Approvals 2020 December
Another month of large annual increase in Mortgage approvals. For both FTB and Mover purchase.
"First-timebuyer (FTB) mortgage approval volumes
increased by 39.7% year-on-year to 2,139 while mover
purchase approval volumes increased by 30.7%
year-on-year to 997."
https://bpfi.ie/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/BPFI-Mortgage-Approvals-December-2020-for-web.pdf

Mortgage Drawdowns 2020 Q4
Mortgage drawdowns similar to the Pre-Covid levels.
"Mortgage drawdown activity fell in volume terms by 0.9% year-on-year"
"First-time buyer(FTB) mortgage drawdown volumes
increased by 7.8% year-on-year to 6,884 while mover
purchase drawdown volumes decreased by 4.9%
year-on-year to 3,031."
https://bpfi.ie/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/BPFI-Mortgage-Drawdowns-Q4-2020-for-web.pdf

Marius34

3) Household Mortgage vs Household Deposits
Update for December. Increase in Household deposits (around €0,9 Billion). And increase in Loans (around €0,4 Billion).
Details below.
Loans for Private House Purchase:
2020 Dec: 73,770 mil (increase +446 mil MoM & -2,723 mil YoY),
Private Household deposits:
2020 Dec: 124,529 mil (increase +927 mil MoM & +14,064 mil YoY)

Marius34

Mortgage Approvals 2021 January.
On the levels similar to a previous years.
"First-time buyer(FTB) mortgage approval volumes
increased by 7.5% year-on-year to 1,709 while mover
purchase approval volumes increased by 2.9%
year-on-year to 911."
https://bpfi.ie/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/BPFI-Mortgage-Approvals-Report-Jan-21.pdf

Marius34

Some Stats on vacancy change during Covid.
There has been decrease in vacancy across most of the Counties, except Dublin, Cork & Limerick.
Dublin vacancy increased, this is likely due to decrease of interest in rental properties in City Center during Covid times.

https://www.geodirectory.ie/getattachment/News/Residential-Property-Transactions-fall-by-over-20/GeoDirectory_GeoView_Residential_Issue_14.pdf?lang=en-IE

hometruths

Marius34 wrote: »

Some Stats on vacancy change during Covid.
There has been decrease in vacancy across most of the Counties, except Dublin, Cork & Limerick.
Dublin vacancy increased, this is likely due to decrease of interest in rental properties in City Center during Covid times.

https://www.geodirectory.ie/getattachment/News/Residential-Property-Transactions-fall-by-over-20/GeoDirectory_GeoView_Residential_Issue_14.pdf?lang=en-IE

If you think latest increase in Dublin vacancies was due to coved, why do you think Dublin vacancies were increasing pre Covid?

Marius34

schmittel wrote: »

If you think latest increase in Dublin vacancies was due to coved, why do you think Dublin vacancies were increasing pre Covid?

Not sure, wouldn't be able to guess on vacancy rate change for Dublin on previous years. But I guess it was partially related to increase number of new build completion.

hometruths

Marius34 wrote: »

Not sure, wouldn't be able to guess on vacancy rate change for Dublin on previous years. But I guess it was partially related to increase number of new build completion.

How does new build completion increase vacancies?

Marius34

schmittel wrote: »

How does new build completion increase vacancies?

I don't know if it increase, but it may increase for some cases.
For some completed properties it may take time to sell, for some it may take time before someone moves in for whatever reasons, etc.

hometruths

Marius34 wrote: »

I don't know if it increase, but it may increase for some cases.
For some completed properties it may take time to sell, for some it may take time before someone moves in for whatever reasons, etc.

That doesn't make any sense, because if they are for sale they are not counted in Geodirectory vacancy figures as per their methodology.

And whilst delays moving in might account for a few vacancies on census night, Geodirectory figures are measured over 6 months by An Post. It's intuitively and mathematically improbable that the increases in vacancies can be meaningfully explained by people taking their time to move in.

Do you think a more likely explanation might be tenancies expiring and landlords deciding not to continue letting the property because of tenant hassles?

Marius34

schmittel wrote: »

That doesn't make any sense, because if they are for sale they are not counted in Geodirectory vacancy figures as per their methodology.

And whilst delays moving in might account for a few vacancies on census night, Geodirectory figures are measured over 6 months by An Post. It's intuitively and mathematically improbable that the increases in vacancies can be meaningfully explained by people taking their time to move in.

I'm not sure where do you get that GeoDirectory doesn't count any properties for sale as vacant? I would think those not sold for long term could be well counted as vacant.
When I'm talking about move in, I'm not just speaking about owner occupied primary or secondary home, but as well rentals, there could be some cases especially higher end, that it could take 1 year before someone moves in after construction completion.

Do you think a more likely explanation might be tenancies expiring and landlords deciding not to continue letting the property because of tenant hassles?

Yes, this may have impact as well on figures.

hometruths

Marius34 wrote: »

I'm not sure where do you get that GeoDirectory doesn't count any properties for sale as vacant? I would think those not sold for long term could be well counted as vacant.

From the Geodirectory 2017 report when they changed from quoting census figures and explained why:

Some of these categories could be considered to be dwellings which might not normally be classified as vacant in the context of long term vacancy, but which would represent more of a transitional or temporary vacancy rate, i.e.
properties waiting to be sold or rented out. In the aggregate they represent a
total of around 31,500 properties out of the 57,000, or 55%. This implies that
25,500 of this total would be deemed to be vacant. As these explanations
were only provided for one-third of vacant dwellings (if it is assumed that
55% of the remaining two-thirds were similarly classified, leaving 45% as
representing the true vacant total), this would reduce the CSO figure for the
number of vacant dwellings considerably to around 83,000, which would be
closer to the GeoDirectory figure of 96,243

I'm surprised you didn't know this, I have pointed it out to you a number of times.

Marius34

schmittel wrote: »

From the Geodirectory 2017 report when they changed from quoting census figures and explained why:

I'm surprised you didn't know this, I have pointed it out to you a number of times.

I'm well aware of what you posted. And that's what I mentioned many time, that its some of the properties from Census are not considered as vacant, those ones in in transition/temporary vacant, some of them are for sale, some for other reasons. It doesn't say that long term vacant unsold properties they don't consider as vacant. I don't think they have in their criteria for long term vacancy to separate those which ones are unsold, which ones are sold.