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View Poll Results: What will be average property price change by the end of 2021 (vs end of 2019)?
Increase 5 7.69%
Decrease 0-10% 24 36.92%
Fall 10-20% 24 36.92%
Fall 20-30% 10 15.38%
Fall Over 30% 2 3.08%
Voters: 65. You may not vote on this poll

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12-05-2020, 14:30   #1
Marius34
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Residential Property Data/Statistics/Reports

I'm creating a separate thread in order to share and discuss or dispute some Statistics, Reports, Articles etc. on Residential Property
There is a similar Tread "Property Market 2020", but it's extremely fast moving, almost impossible to follow (I lost the track), and with very little information towards Data/Statistics, Reports.

For a start some statistics and comparison of covid vs 2008 crisis on Irish Household & Construction.

1) Housing stock/Population

Housing Stock:
2008/09 - 1,960,000
2018/19 - 2,032,000
https://www.statista.com/statistics/...ic-of-ireland/
Population:
2008 - 4,485,100
2019 - 4,921,500
https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpub...atesapril2019/
Housing stocks per 1000 population:
2008 - 437
2019 - 413

https://www.centralbank.ie/statistic...ce-sheets-data

2) Construction output:
Completion (inc. social housing):
2006 - 93,4 K
2007 - 78,0 K
2008 - 51,7 K
...
2019 - 17,9 K
2020 - 21,2 K

https://www.housing.gov.ie/sites/def...d,20957,en.pdf

3) Household Mortgage vs Household Deposits
Loans for House Purchase:
2008 Mar - 125,091 mil
2020 Mar - 73,351 mil
Household deposits:
2008 Mar - 83,352 mil
2020 Mar - 112,997 mil
https://www.centralbank.ie/statistic...ce-sheets-data

4) Sale Price:
2008 crisis: Property price reached Peak in 2007 Q1/Q2, ant started to fall almost a year before crisis.
2020 Covid: Property prices are overly stable before Covid since 2018.
Daft was the first to report Asking price fall in their 30 March report. Actual transactions still yet to see the Covid impact. Stable before Covid:
https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpub...xfebruary2020/

5) GDP/GNP
GDP change: 2008 -4,5% fall, 2009 -5,1% (GNP over -10% for 2009?)
Ideally would be to see GNP change.
https://www.statista.com/statistics/...te-in-ireland/
2020 current GDP forecast by central bank: -8,3%
https://www.centralbank.ie/news/arti...0-3-april-2020
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12-05-2020, 22:28   #2
Marius34
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Adding opinion Poll, hope it works...
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13-05-2020, 15:01   #3
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Mortgage Approvals 2020 March
Visible some impact of Covid, overall Annual decrease 9,9% Year-on-Year, for March.
https://www.bpfi.ie/wp-content/uploa...20-website.pdf

Mortgage Drawdowns 2020 Q1
In overall there are no much change:
"Mortgage drawdown activity rose in volume terms by 1.8% year-on-year and increased in value terms by 6.0% over the same period."
Where as highest increase comes from FTB:
"First-time buyer (FTB) mortgage drawdown volumes increased by 8.4% year-on-year to 4,400"
Highest decrease from Investment:
"Residential investment letting (RIL) mortgage drawdown volumes decreased by 14.7% year-on-year to 232."
https://www.bpfi.ie/wp-content/uploa...or-website.pdf

In comparison with 2008 Q1, it has similar number of Second hand drawdowns, but around 4 times lower on Total New builds drawdowns.

Year_Q FTB New FTB Secondhand MP New MP Secondhand RIL New RIL Secondhand Total
2007_Q1 3,871 4,048 3,936 3,883 2,092 3,136 20,967
2008_Q1 2,786 1,542 3,137 2,032 2,147 1,653 13,299
2009_Q1 1,176 1,180 808 1,378 215 752 5,509
2019_Q1 1,186 2,875 610 1,730 13 259 6,673
2020_Q1 1,411 2,989 552 1,748 11 221 6,932
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13-05-2020, 20:03   #4
Pivot Eoin
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Thanks for this Marius, would be keen to get some engagement going on this to keep it near the top of the Accom/Property Boards- both for the benefit of Relevant stats on the current market, but also to gauge people's views in the Poll above.
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14-05-2020, 10:24   #5
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Bump
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14-05-2020, 11:06   #6
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Today CSO published Residential Property Price Index March 2020, this can be seen as the last Pre-Covid transaction report.
Overly property price stable, with minor increase on Year-to-Year basis.
"Residential property prices increased by 1% nationally in the year to March. "
"In Dublin, residential property prices increased by 0.6% in the year to March"

https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpub...ndexmarch2020/
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14-05-2020, 18:44   #7
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Bump: Please answer Poll at the top
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14-05-2020, 18:48   #8
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Thanks for creating a thread like this!
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14-05-2020, 19:13   #9
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Facts are good. Too many in this forum prefer fiction.
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14-05-2020, 20:35   #10
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I had a look at KBC report published today.
It’s the first Financial institution, that I have seen, which provides forecast for Irish Property price, during the Covid crisis.
https://www.kbc.com/content/dam/kbcc...esentation.pdf

Here is their forecast for the Base scenario for Ireland:
Metric 2020 2021 2022
GDP -5.0% +4.0% +3.5%
Unemployment 14.0% 9.0% 6.0%
House Price -12.0% +8.0% +5.0%

I understand in current uncertainty it’s very difficult to forecast, but their numbers looks a bit premature to me, if that’s the right term. Property price typically is not as volatile, in other words does not fluctuate that fast. It definitely can happen, in unexpected events, but it’s weird to see it in their base case forecast scenario for 2020 vs 2021.
As well 2020 GDP for Ireland, base forecast is more optimistic than any other reports I've seen, with -5%, whereas for Euro Area their base scenario -11.3%. I can’t grasp how they are getting such massive differences.

Last edited by Marius34; 14-05-2020 at 20:38.
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14-05-2020, 20:48   #11
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Marius34 View Post
I had a look at KBC report published today.
It’s the first Financial institution, that I have seen, which provides forecast for Irish Property price, during the Covid crisis.
https://www.kbc.com/content/dam/kbcc...esentation.pdf

Here is their forecast for the Base scenario for Ireland:
Metric 2020 2021 2022
GDP -5.0% +4.0% +3.5%
Unemployment 14.0% 9.0% 6.0%
House Price -12.0% +8.0% +5.0%

I understand in current uncertainty it’s very difficult to forecast, but their numbers looks a bit premature to me, if that’s the right term. Property price typically is not as volatile, in other words does not fluctuate that fast. It definitely can happen, in unexpected events, but it’s weird to see it in their base case forecast scenario for 2020 vs 2021.
As well 2020 GDP for Ireland, base forecast is more optimistic than any other reports I've seen, with -5%, whereas for Euro Area their base scenario -11.3%. I can’t grasp how they are getting such massive differences.
I think slide says situation as of March 31st? Just above tables starting side 21
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14-05-2020, 20:59   #12
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Hubertj View Post
I think slide says situation as of March 31st? Just above tables starting side 21
Correct, but it was released today to the press, as well as on their website:
https://www.kbc.com/en/investor-rela...ions-2020.html

I guess "situation at March 31,2020", it means based on 2020 Q1 data.
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15-05-2020, 11:11   #13
schmittel
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Marius34 View Post
I had a look at KBC report published today.
It’s the first Financial institution, that I have seen, which provides forecast for Irish Property price, during the Covid crisis.
https://www.kbc.com/content/dam/kbcc...esentation.pdf

Here is their forecast for the Base scenario for Ireland:
Metric 2020 2021 2022
GDP -5.0% +4.0% +3.5%
Unemployment 14.0% 9.0% 6.0%
House Price -12.0% +8.0% +5.0%

I understand in current uncertainty it’s very difficult to forecast, but their numbers looks a bit premature to me, if that’s the right term. Property price typically is not as volatile, in other words does not fluctuate that fast. It definitely can happen, in unexpected events, but it’s weird to see it in their base case forecast scenario for 2020 vs 2021.
As well 2020 GDP for Ireland, base forecast is more optimistic than any other reports I've seen, with -5%, whereas for Euro Area their base scenario -11.3%. I can’t grasp how they are getting such massive differences.
The difference in the different impacts relative to the other countries are quite odd as well.

The base case prediction for 2020 GDP Ireland vs Belgium is -5% vs -9.5%; at first glance that looks kind of encouraging.

But they say they this expect to occur alongside 14% unemployment and a 12% drop in house prices in Ireland, vs 6.2% and houses down 3% in Belgium.

And then in 2021 they expect Belgiums GDP to bounce back strongly at 12.3% vs us at 4%.

And that meanwhile Belgian house prices will continue to fall by 2% and that ours will bounce back strongly by 8%.

SO over the three years to 2022 they are predicting that Belgium will have a net gain in GDP with a net fall in house prices and we are the opposite - our economy will be in recession but our house prices will have risen.

Are KBC telling us they think our house prices are fundamentally undervalued? Seems to be the logical conclusion from just looking at their numbers.
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16-05-2020, 08:59   #14
Pivot Eoin
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Bump - Please vote on the Poll at Top.
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16-05-2020, 12:57   #15
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Originally Posted by Pivot Eoin View Post
Bump - Please vote on the Poll at Top.
Stop bumping threads
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