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29-10-2020, 23:40   #46
Meteorite58
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Southern counties getting a lot of rainfall by the looks of it.

https://twitter.com/MetEireann/statu...860478977?s=20
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30-10-2020, 00:33   #47
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ECM 18Z looking Stormy now along the SW, W and NW coasts on Saturday, initially early from the SW . Very windy in the SE also and very windy at times inland especially on higher and exposed ground. thundery rain also.

Deepening all the way up along the Western coasts. Those charts could produce some damaging winds along coastal areas. Very much in Orange territory now from probably Cork all the way up to Donegal, maybe the SE also. Most areas could get winds gusting 90Km/h+ at some stage, maybe higher on elevated ground going by these charts. Fairly consistent now for a few runs but increasing the wind speed the last few runs .





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30-10-2020, 00:40   #48
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The wind has eased. Bliss. Heavy rain but no howling. The dragon sleeps.

Catching up here, we are in for a bad time now this weekend. Being utterly selfish(!) I am only concerned today, Friday, about my supplies getting here! That is what island life does! Focusses on life's basic realities.

Then hunkering down with candles and torch at the ready.

Watching and listening.

As all good weather folk do.
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30-10-2020, 00:46   #49
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ECM not showing the second round of winds on Sat night/ Sun morning as strong as earlier, still windy along coasts , but goes on to show the third system later Sun into Mon Morning looking very strong across a good swathe of the country. All subject to change.

Get the feeling that with Met Eireann drawing so much attention to the potential for stormy conditions that they could give a widespread Orange warning for Saturday and possibly Orange retreating to W, NW coastal counties later for a time. There is so much uncertainty with this that it could give very strong winds in inland areas also along with driving squally rain so maybe taking the attitude better safe than sorry. Still time for changes one way or the other of course.

With the way the models have been struggling with this set up a lot could still change with track and strength.





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30-10-2020, 05:10   #50
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Some potential for model error even at this range because the core of Zeta has moved even faster into the Atlantic than models were suggesting over first 6-12 hours, which could give it less time to gain latitude (as the second round of strong winds). Not sure if this would impact any of the evolution of the first round earlier Saturday. Waiting to see if ECM has caught this because so far GEM, GFS and Arpege have not quite got the speed, it may be that cloud formations have accelerated past pressure patterns too.

Anyway, I think we need to underline the potential for last-minute changes in forecasts especially with the late Saturday early Sunday time frame.

There could also be late stage changes in the evolution of third wave in the series due to pass south coast Sunday night. Not sold on this one being suppressed as shown.
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30-10-2020, 06:16   #51
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Charts firming up on something significant this morning.
ECM, bullish all along is particularly potent at 24hours
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30-10-2020, 08:11   #52
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Ship report of 59 knot westerly winds at 37N 66W which is between post-tropical Zeta and the developing tail end low.

The GFS perturbations give some more intense solutions for Saturday night into Sunday morning, but not a big spread, implying moderately high confidence in the solution as presented.

However, I have to wonder if the intensity of the upper flow dynamics will merge the two storms so that the mid-day frontal passage becomes a sort of occlusion of the fast-approaching remnant low of Zeta, then a two-part windstorm ensues with peaks at mid-day Saturday and just after midnight (0300h Nov 1st).

Something to watch in future model runs. Full moon is Saturday (around 15z) so tidal surges may need to be considered for Galway Bay.
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30-10-2020, 08:19   #53
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ME may upgrade warnings later this morning.
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30-10-2020, 09:38   #54
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Significant looking rainfall for the southeast tonight/tomorrow morning, and then wet and wild around lunchtime tomorrow in the west, a day for the fire.
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30-10-2020, 09:50   #55
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Originally Posted by redsteveireland View Post
Significant looking rainfall for the southeast tonight/tomorrow morning, and then wet and wild around lunchtime tomorrow in the west, a day for the fire.
Every day is a day for the fire at the moment unfortunately.
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30-10-2020, 10:18   #56
Graces7
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Every day is a day for the fire at the moment unfortunately.
Yesterday was so mild the fire was not needed here; but today is a diferent matter with clearer skies and no cloud blanket. Decidedly parky out there
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30-10-2020, 10:36   #57
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Looks like we should get a few hours respite with the heavy wind and rain around 5pm-9pm just in time for Wexford V Galway
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30-10-2020, 10:52   #58
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Status Orange - Wind warning for Carlow, Kilkenny, Wexford, Wicklow, Cork, Kerry and Waterford

Met Éireann Weather Warning

On Saturday morning strong southerly winds veering southwesterly associated with Storm Aiden will reach mean speeds of 65 to 80km/h, with severe and damaging gusts of 100 to 130km/h.

Valid: 05:00 Saturday 31/10/2020 to 10:00 Saturday 31/10/2020

Issued: 10:00 Friday 30/10/2020

———————————————————————-

Status Orange - Wind warning for Donegal, Galway, Mayo, Sligo and Clare

Met Éireann Weather Warning

On Saturday morning and afternoon strong southwest to west winds associated with Storm Aiden will reach mean speeds of 65 to 80km/h, with severe and damaging gusts of 100 to 130km/h.

Valid: 08:00 Saturday 31/10/2020 to 16:00 Saturday 31/10/2020

Issued: 10:00 Friday 30/10/2020


Last edited by pad199207; 30-10-2020 at 11:03.
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30-10-2020, 11:03   #59
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Calm and clear in Limerick at the moment.

A great day

The calm before the storm.
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30-10-2020, 11:09   #60
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Originally Posted by pad199207 View Post
Status Orange - Wind warning for Carlow, Kilkenny, Wexford, Wicklow, Cork, Kerry and Waterford

Met Éireann Weather Warning

I still can't get over how the weather sticks to county borders.
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