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02-10-2020, 22:19   #61
mcburns07
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I wasn't aware that snow was a common thing in Orkney, I know it's quite far north but it's surprising considering it's in a small island.
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02-10-2020, 22:22   #62
nacho libre
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Warm east might mean cold for us?
When places like Alberta get milder weather during winter than they are used to, it can be good news for us.
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02-10-2020, 23:13   #63
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I wasn't aware that snow was a common thing in Orkney, I know it's quite far north but it's surprising considering it's in a small island.
It is between the far north of Scotland and Shetland so of course it gets snow. Not sure why it would not? Regardless of size. It snows at sea too .. And not just one island but a whole collection of islands. I was on one of the Outer North Islands. One larger and many smaller. Ours was about six miles by two. At least 2 hours from mainland Orkney by boat...

We had snow every winter. There is a website listing the Top Ten snowiest places in the UK. and Orkney comes 4th with snow on 59 days of the year. Lovely photos if you google "snow Orkney". The gales were amazing so imagine the drifts....
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03-10-2020, 12:48   #64
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09-10-2020, 18:28   #65
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I had hailstones today in Connemara. Nasty shower. Nice to see some white stuff.
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12-10-2020, 10:59   #66
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Has anyone put out any entertaining winter forecast yet?
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12-10-2020, 12:10   #67
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Has anyone put out any entertaining winter forecast yet?
it's a bit early really as we are only half way through Autumn. Alot can happen between now and December. Gavs weather will issue his winter forecast around December 2nd.
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12-10-2020, 22:56   #68
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13-10-2020, 12:13   #69
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Im sure MT Craniums' Winter forecast will be along quiet soon.
My prediction is for a colder than average winter.
Second half of November might bring first snowfalls.
December will be average enough but after xamas another lengthy spell of frigid air will encroach from the north east and decend upon us for the first two to 3 weeks of january. This will be bitter cold with some of the coldest temps recorded for january for up to 40 Years.
It will be dry though with only maybe one big snowfall.
February will be average with March also cold but not near as cold as January.
Time will tell.
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13-10-2020, 12:37   #70
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Well, bazlers, that's a real pick-me-up

however, can I ask you to move November's snowfall to the 2nd and 3rd week of December, just to make it more Chrismassy, like.

Failing that, we may have to burn down the observatory .
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13-10-2020, 12:50   #71
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Well, bazlers, that's a real pick-me-up

however, can I ask you to move November's snowfall to the 2nd and 3rd week of December, just to make it more Chrismassy, like.

Failing that, we may have to burn down the observatory .
Yes burning down the observatory always helps ; )
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13-10-2020, 15:14   #72
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This winter is likely to be colder than the past two winters which is an easy target to beat. It remains to be seen if we get anything special this winter but I've a feeling we will definitely see more in the way of frost and precipitation of a wintry nature this winter compared to recent winters with perhaps the first half of winter being the coldest half.

One of my main wishes for this winter apart from cold and snow is an overall dryer winter than last winter, completely fed up of the Atlantic and it's deluges, the past 12 months has overall been very wet aside from Spring.
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13-10-2020, 23:44   #73
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This winter is likely to be colder than the past two winters which is an easy target to beat. It remains to be seen if we get anything special this winter but I've a feeling we will definitely see more in the way of frost and precipitation of a wintry nature this winter compared to recent winters with perhaps the first half of winter being the coldest half.

One of my main wishes for this winter apart from cold and snow is an overall dryer winter than last winter, completely fed up of the Atlantic and it's deluges, the past 12 months has overall been very wet aside from Spring.
Thank you. My immediate response to this, being of a practical nature, is to make sure I lag the pipe from the gas tank outside, and to store some water..
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14-10-2020, 06:56   #74
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We had our first snow at my location earlier today, about 3-5 cm of wet slushy accumulation, trending towards 15 cm on higher slopes around here (my elevation is 1080 m). This is actually two weeks later than 2019 but still a bit earlier than long-term average for this location.

I am as alleged working on a winter outlook, not very far into the process yet and hoping to have something ready by the weekend perhaps, 20th absolute deadline.

No preliminary hunches or impressions. I do know people who are gung-ho about this winter in Britain, but I think quiet sun is the main foundation of their optimism and we've had that for several years now.

Like the patient gambler at the blackjack table, the chances of hitting a winning streak are always better the longer you play, so there is that. Even if this is the modern equivalent of the 1920s you could hit a 1929.

Looks like some transient cold in central to eastern N America in coming week, but that's not a good omen statistically at least, the years I came up with as analogues all sucked for European cold winters (Oct 1972, 74, 87, 88, 2006 were among the colder ones). Could be a case of firing up the jet at an inopportune time and tilting the odds towards zonal flow.

I suspect the indicators and trends will be weak favouring a near-average outcome but will go through the whole process and see what the number crunch indicates.
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14-10-2020, 10:16   #75
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This winter is likely to be colder than the past two winters which is an easy target to beat. It remains to be seen if we get anything special this winter but I've a feeling we will definitely see more in the way of frost and precipitation of a wintry nature this winter compared to recent winters with perhaps the first half of winter being the coldest half.

One of my main wishes for this winter apart from cold and snow is an overall dryer winter than last winter, completely fed up of the Atlantic and it's deluges, the past 12 months has overall been very wet aside from Spring.
I would bad weather and would love nothing more than a bad Winter, but it would have to my a dry winter for me to enjoy.
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