Boards.ie uses cookies. By continuing to browse this site you are agreeing to our use of cookies. Click here to find out more x
Post Reply  
 
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread
04-09-2020, 14:30   #46
SeaBreezes
Registered User
 
Join Date: Feb 2014
Posts: 1,436
My Hopes are definately up after HatrickPatrick and Syran updates!!

(Assuming i understood it correctly)

Thank you both.
SeaBreezes is offline  
(3) thanks from:
Advertisement
04-09-2020, 20:59   #47
pauldry
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jul 2009
Posts: 4,577
When you give up on the weather the weather gives.

I've given up on ever seeing a cold snowy Winter like 2010 ever again but who knows. Maybe this year.

One thing that's almost a given now is that we will get lots of rain.
pauldry is online now  
04-09-2020, 22:49   #48
Graces7
Registered User
 
Join Date: Dec 2009
Posts: 27,459
About 2010?

"Age and forgetfulness sweeten memory" applies. OK? OK!
Graces7 is offline  
(2) thanks from:
04-09-2020, 23:33   #49
Banned
 
Join Date: Aug 2020
Posts: 541
I hope we get a bitterly cold winter with loads of snow.
I am not sure exactly how I managed it but I have packed my shed with about 3 years of turf and logs. Stockpiling I guess.
My stove will be hopping and I also plan to do a lot of winter hiking.
Hawthorn Tree is offline  
Thanks from:
05-09-2020, 14:25   #50
hatrickpatrick
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 17,010
So, just to recap here:

Quote:
Originally Posted by hatrickpatrick View Post
Not saying this to get anyone's hopes up, just an observation!
Quote:
Originally Posted by SeaBreezes View Post
My Hopes are definately up after HatrickPatrick and Syran updates!!
hatrickpatrick is offline  
Advertisement
05-09-2020, 14:29   #51
NickNickleby
Registered User
 
NickNickleby's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2016
Posts: 1,173
Quote:
Originally Posted by hatrickpatrick View Post
So, just to recap here:





heheheh

Too late. You've created a monster:

Now, where are those snow-shoes I bought in 2011??
NickNickleby is online now  
11-09-2020, 11:54   #52
leahyl
Registered User
 
leahyl's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2007
Posts: 12,620
10 year anniversary this year.....could it happen again??! Hey, it's 2020!

leahyl is online now  
20-09-2020, 12:35   #53
sryanbruen
Registered User
 
sryanbruen's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2015
Posts: 11,064
This likely won't be much an issue here as compared to Netweather but I thought I should mention it anyway.

A weak stratospheric polar vortex in late autumn is a good starting point but rarely does it coincide with a season of consistently weak SPV, 2009-10 being such a year. Recent years have had the tendency to feature a weak SPV through the autumn period or a disconnection between the trop and strat before a big ramp up or reconnection by December or January. This was especially the case in 2016-17. The life span of the SPV is non-linear, every season has maximum and minimum spikes to various degrees.

I used models like the CFSv2 in years such as 2018-19 (my most recent winter forecast) in helping to anticipate major sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) events at long ranges. The issue with this is the model has a negative bias with hindcasting zonal mean zonal winds at 60N 10hPa that might not necessarily reflect the actual forecast. Simon Lee has a great thread on this matter below.

https://twitter.com/SimonLeeWx/statu...288178176?s=20

I felt confident on using this model to anticipate a major SSW of some kind during December 2018 or January 2019 due to a theory regarding increased risk of such when the QBO is transitioning from easterly to westerly. Fortunately, this indeed verified but the effects were very different from the major SSW event in February 2018 of course. The hindcast of the CFSv2 is again showing weak zonal mean zonal winds for the autumn into the winter period but not to be relied upon and I don't have any other factors like the QBO in 2018-19 to make me consider otherwise this time.

To answer a question set forth by hatrickpatrick, I think the earliest the annual stratosphere watch thread should be created is late October. You or anybody else are obviously more than welcome to do so any time but that's just my opinion.

Meanwhile, on the ENSO side of things, we are firmly into weak La Nina now and it's looking more like an East Pacific (EP) Nina at the moment. Models like Glosea5 and CanSIPS show the possibility of this La Nina strengthening to strong levels by the end of the year. As mentioned prior, strong ENSO events historically do not correlate well for high latitude blocking dominated winters in our part of the world though the analog record of such is small. I think the chances of a strong La Nina are low at the moment with moderate having the highest probability. La Nina events favour the earlier part of the winter to having an increased chance of -NAO whilst the latter part favours +NAO so La Nina winters tend to be more front-loaded although, especially with weak events, this link is weak with decent number of exceptions from the past.

Anyway, I digress.
sryanbruen is offline  
21-09-2020, 21:28   #54
Oneiric 3
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jan 2013
Posts: 4,392
Fairly typical 'La Nina' pattern over the N. American continent:



which would suggest that explosive lows would easier develop of the eastern seaboard, but which really means nothing for us as 1. this could amplify high pressure zone over the central or NE Atlantic or, just keep the pattern flat and stormy over us, with the latter pattern slightly more likely if the La Nina remains in weak state.
Oneiric 3 is offline  
Advertisement
25-09-2020, 18:02   #55
sryanbruen
Registered User
 
sryanbruen's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2015
Posts: 11,064
Could not resist sharing this super interesting thread.

https://twitter.com/griteater/status...803998721?s=20

https://twitter.com/griteater/status...480949250?s=20

https://twitter.com/griteater/status...832198148?s=20
sryanbruen is offline  
25-09-2020, 18:18   #56
sryanbruen
Registered User
 
sryanbruen's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2015
Posts: 11,064
And to simplify what the above showed, most of the negative Arctic Oscillation / North Atlantic Oscillation combo (which indicates blocking in the high latitudes and cold air displaced into the mid latitudes like Ireland) winters have been associated with cool ENSO or La Nina events since 1990 as compared to El Nino.

The pattern of the Octobers preceding these La Nina winters bears a striking resemblance to the projected synoptic profile across the Northern Hemisphere in late September / early October 2020 with including, but not limited to, blocking high pressure over the Urals and a corresponding trough near or over Ireland.

The last tweet shows the 500mb height anomaly for the following November/December which both feature Greenland blocking and a southerly tracking jet stream. This is an overall average for the analog years and of course, extreme years like 2010 will skew things somewhat but interesting nonetheless and each of the years featured high latitude blocking at some point through their respective months.

All food for thought and for fun, nothing more, nothing less.
sryanbruen is offline  
01-10-2020, 14:42   #57
lapua20grain
Registered User
 
lapua20grain's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2013
Posts: 638
https://twitter.com/judah47/status/1...597131265?s=19
lapua20grain is offline  
(2) thanks from:
01-10-2020, 21:55   #58
SeaBreezes
Registered User
 
Join Date: Feb 2014
Posts: 1,436
Quote:
Originally Posted by lapua20grain View Post
Warm east might mean cold for us?
SeaBreezes is offline  
02-10-2020, 09:46   #59
Graces7
Registered User
 
Join Date: Dec 2009
Posts: 27,459
Memories keep coming of my Orkney decade. Snow was part of every winter at some stage. But we were well equipped, not like the disruption in less experienced places. My home help would arrive with the shopping on the family tractor in two feet of snow.

The island lorry ( rubbish collection etc) had a snowplough attachment. One year ( and I could see the lane from my door, but, thankfully, not hear the language..) it got stuck in the snow and had to be pulled out by a tractor....

Watching my hens emerge into the snow, and be horrified to LOSE THEIR FEET! They have such expressive faces.

" Ah yes, I remember it well.!"
Graces7 is offline  
02-10-2020, 22:16   #60
Graces7
Registered User
 
Join Date: Dec 2009
Posts: 27,459
There was one week when the power failed on the whole island; there was thick snow on the ground..

Romantic soul that I am, I stood at my front door in the moonlight, gazing at the silent expanses of white, dreaming of the "old days" when no one had electricity and life was a balancing act.... Then my practicai streak reminded me that there was a freezer and cupboards full of food behind me and that thankfully we will never know that kind of dire poverty again.

But it was so utterly lovely, that snow silence. Whiteness in the moonlight.

Snow seems to do that; take us back to "times long past"; maybe as it is blessedly rare we romanticise it? It is an adventure! And the utter silence it instils, So you hold your breath.,

In those Orkney years I saw the reality of annual snow. The last snowman I made was there; I made it too near the back window and it used to make me jump as I thought someone was out there!

If we get snow , I will put a large snowman on guard on the drive!

Well, we can dream ..How about a thread on snow dreams! Later I mean..We have the autumn gales to get through first...
Graces7 is offline  
Post Reply

Quick Reply
Message:
Remove Text Formatting
Bold
Italic
Underline

Insert Image
Wrap [QUOTE] tags around selected text
 
Decrease Size
Increase Size
Please sign up or log in to join the discussion

Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search



Share Tweet