Winter 2011/2012

Fionagus wrote: »

Here's one for ya

When leaves fall early,
Autumn and Winter will be mild;
When leaves fall late,
Winter will be severe.

and I suppose the other ones are only optimistic if you're a Snow Bunny and you get a warm foggy August following a hot July - not looking good is it?
:)

How common are warm foggy Augusts?! According to met.ie there are an average of 4.6 days with fog in Kilkenny in August . . . which would lead to 4.6 snowfalls. Not enough!!! :P

Btw, that rhyme doesn't rhyme . . . just being pedantic about it!!!!

Fionagus wrote: »

True - so I just thought I'd toss some August weather lore into the mix

thetonynator wrote: »

Damn optimistic rhymes!

thetonynator wrote: »

Btw, that rhyme doesn't rhyme . . . just being pedantic about it!!!!

Does lore have to rhyme?? :pac:

In any case, it looks like we're truly fecked snow-wise if any of that non-rhyming lore is true I mean

thetonynator wrote: »

Oops!

Lets make up some of our own . . .IF June and July are cool with slightly below average rainfall and sunshine and August starts dull and broken then there will be blizzards of epic proportions for 3 months of winter . . .:D

Sounds pretty damn good to me!!! :D:D

Think I'll even make it my Boards Sig as well !:D

moniga wrote: »

Anyone have any idea why the trees are turning so early? Have noticed it over past couple weeks.

Welcome to Boards and the Weather Forum

I can't say that I've noticed any significant leaf fall as yet here in Galway though there are reports from other parts of the country.

Wind burn may be playing some part though I also suspect that the lower than average rainfall in parts of the country may also be responsible for some trees shedding leaves early

http://www.irishweatheronline.com/news/atmosphere/cold/colder-than-average-winter-forecast-for-ireland-and-uk/33130.html

Min wrote: »

Drier than normal, can see water restrictions in Dublin - dry weather and cold weather freezing pipes and people leaving their taps on...

I'd be happy to have the worst of winter over by the new year like last winter.

Combined with Blessington lake being at it's lowest level in 35 years now, I can see serious problems looming in the future.

Sooner they start pumping from the Shannon to Dublin the better!!!

Deleted User wrote: »

Fyp

Even if water loss was down to 5% there still won't be enough water in a few years time. It's at about 20% now.

If you saw that prime time program about it, you'd realise that this really is the only solution, the liffey simply can't provide enough water.

Heres James Maddens latest thoughts.


http://www.exactaweather.com/UK_Long_Range_Forecast.html

Autumn 2011




The UK can expect a similar theme to continue as we head into Autumn, with a notable increase in usual wind strengths for this time of year across many parts of the UK, that will result in frequent and potentially damaging gale force winds and strong stormy features throughout Autumn and Winter. Although some places further South may see some spells of settled weather at times, the general theme for Autumn as a whole looks largely wet and very windy with dominant grey skies. It will be generally unsettled and turn progressively colder with an early start to winter, especially more so in the regions of Scotland, Northern England, and Northern Ireland.

Winter 2011-12 Update

As we head towards winter, I expect to see the first signs of some moderate to heavy snowfalls as early as October or November in certain parts of the UK. In terms of the meteorological winter, I expect December, January, and February to experience below average temperatures, with the heaviest snowfalls occurring within the time frame of November to January across many parts of the UK.

The most important factor within our weather forecasting calculations is solar activity and other major natural factors that it influences. Radiant energy from the sun is the primary influence on both the earth's ocean and atmosphere.

Low solar activity and ocean behaviour alter atmospheric circulation and block jet stream patterns that create enhanced moisture in terms of snowfall. The UK and Ireland is hit by prolonged periods of extreme cold and snow from the Arctic regions, as cold easterlies or north-easterlies develop. Huge swirly low pressure systems also offer the potential for widespread disruption from heavy snowfall across many parts of the UK including the South, as they clash with the predominant cold air over the UK.

Coupled with other in depth factors such as recent volcanic activity and changes to the Gulf Stream/North Atlantic drift that we consider, this does not bode well for the severity of the UK and Northern European winter of winter 2011-12. Frequent and prolonged cold spells with heavy dumps of snow from blizzard like conditions is likely across many parts of the UK. The areas we expect to be worse hit throughout include the vast majority of Scotland and the Scottish Highlands, Northern England, and Northern Ireland. We have particular concerns as to the huge implications that this may pose to the infrastructure of the UK and Ireland transportation systems/economy.

James Madden (UK Long Range Forecaster)

The one good thing about these cold Winters is that they're usually lovely and bright, endless bands of rain and grey overcast skies are a real mood killer!