Fierce Cold Spell from Sunday (February 1st)

bassy · 28-01-2009 8:43pm #1

http://uk.news.yahoo.com/21/20090128/tuk-temperatures-to-plunge-next-week-6323e80.html

M.T. Cranium · 28-01-2009 9:26pm

Have a look in the model thread here, but in general yes, it looks like several cold spells could develop in February, the first one could last much of next week starting later Sunday in Ireland but the most promising day being Monday 2nd of February. Another cold spell could develop later in the week towards the following weekend. As I say, would suggest looking in the model thread for more details. I will post more extensively on this tonight, seeing if this thread is still open, or if not, I will post in whatever thread seems most appropriate given the circumstances that develop in the 00z model runs.

Pangea · 28-01-2009 11:29pm

Wow, its fantastic that yet another cold spell is on its way, What a great winter we are having , Frost began on halloween , plenty of cold spells since then

Pangea · 28-01-2009 11:50pm

"There are growing signs that heavy snow showers will accompany this frigid air during Monday and Tuesday, more especially across southern and eastern parts of England, with the north and west probably staying mainly fine and frosty"

:mad:
This obviously means we wont get snow here in Ireland right?

MUSEIST · 28-01-2009 11:54pm

Pangea wrote: »

"There are growing signs that heavy snow showers will accompany this frigid air during Monday and Tuesday, more especially across southern and eastern parts of England, with the north and west probably staying mainly fine and frosty" :mad:
This obviously means we wont get snow here in Ireland right?

Well the east side of the country is more at risk due to showers from the irish sea, just like the east side of the uk is most at risk from precipitation from the north sea.

The gfs run shows showers of snow for the east and south of ireland from sunday night till tuesday .How many showers ,how much snow is impossible to say at this stage but if you live in the east or south there is a good chance you will see snow.

Pangea · 29-01-2009 12:07am

lol dam im in donegal

TheGreenGiant · 29-01-2009 1:24am

Aye, its looking fairly good for a god cold spell again, lasting for most of next week. Quite possibly some snow especially along southern to north eastern coasts depending on precipitation of course. Here's what the chart looks like for Monday at 850hPa

jon burrows · 29-01-2009 8:57am

Met Eireann: 29th of Jan, SUNDAY NIGHT, MONDAY : Very cold, with east to northeast winds. Widespread night frost. Scattered hail or snow showers likely, especially in east and southeast - but most places dry and clear.

M.T. Cranium · 29-01-2009 9:31am

Keep your fingers crossed, there could be a country-wide snowfall coming by Tuesday. Low pressure is indicated to approach from the southeast but never makes it past Cornwall. This would be ideal for forcing the cold air mass to drop its potential snow load over Ireland. If the models verify, you could be looking at widespread sea-effect snow bands on Monday, consolidating into a snowstorm on Tuesday. Amounts could be quite heavy, I will keep an eye on it and give some estimates closer to the time, but I am talking several inches in many parts of Ireland. A historic snowstorm in 1933 does not look vastly different on the maps.

munsterlegend · 29-01-2009 10:34am

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Keep your fingers crossed, there could be a country-wide snowfall coming by Tuesday. Low pressure is indicated to approach from the southeast but never makes it past Cornwall. This would be ideal for forcing the cold air mass to drop its potential snow load over Ireland. If the models verify, you could be looking at widespread sea-effect snow bands on Monday, consolidating into a snowstorm on Tuesday. Amounts could be quite heavy, I will keep an eye on it and give some estimates closer to the time, but I am talking several inches in many parts of Ireland. A historic snowstorm in 1933 does not look vastly different on the maps.

I love your post M.T. and hope it materialises. My confidence is a little broken given the let downs to date but i'm optimistic again given the recent posts.

29-01-2009 10:52am

I'm pretty confident at this stage.Also Met Éireann forecast hail and snow showers in the East for sunday night and monday on their 755am radio forecast.
Not a mention of the word sleet or rain.

This looks very 80's esque.

synoptically it more january 87 I think than feb 91 in the sense that the winds are progged to go more NE after an initial East.
Thats what they did in '87.
I'm not sure if it will be as cold as then but that easterly whitened Dublin at first with plenty of Irish sea snow showers and was followed by an active low that pushed down from Scandinavia dumping close to a foot of snow in south Dublin and snow all the way to valentia in Kerry as it exited out into the atlantic.

Reverse zonality all the way.

I hope I havent jinxed this.

ninebeanrows · 29-01-2009 11:22am

I thought i'd start a new thread and merge the other one in.

The outlook is sensational, probably the best if it were to occur since the age of the internet.

A fiercely cold easterly blast is expected to set in from Sunday evening with the cold persisting for a prolonged period.

At first extremely cold easterly winds take hold with 850hpa temperatures expected to reach -12c in some areas of Ireland.

From Monday the easterly winds will bring in heavy and possibly prolonged showers of snow to the east coast and these will move inland at times. Temperatures will be very suppressed rising to 1 or 2c at most, the most notable aspect will be the very low dewpoints ranging from -6c to -2c. For once marginality looks like it will be less of a concern.

The intense easterly flow will last through Tuesday and Wednesday with snow lying in many eastern areas.

From Thursday winds will turn more northeasterly as pressure rises over Greenland at first it may turn slightly less cold for a while with rain, sleet and snow pushing from the north. Then it would seem the Arctic is expected to flood south with a prolonged Northeasterly flow with bands of snow moving southwards. At this point the details beyond Wednesday are subject to change but very likely to remain extremely cold and snowy.

It could well be the best cold spell for Eastern Ireland for over a decade. Finer details are still being firmed up as we speak. If your reading NW and other UK fora, they will be getting restless over these fine detail changes as these are all from south England and if the cold pool and low moves slightly north so does the snow risk, that's what has happened on this mornings 6z! However we should no complain :pac:

This could be it folks, we could really need to buy a sleigh!!:D:D

munsterlegend · 29-01-2009 11:24am

Deleted User wrote: »

I'm pretty confident at this stage.Also Met Éireann forecast hail and snow showers in the East for sunday night and monday on their 755am radio forecast.
Not a mention of the word sleet or rain.

This looks very 80's esque.

synoptically it more january 87 I think than feb 91 in the sense that the winds are progged to go more NE after an initial East.
Thats what they did in '87.
I'm not sure if it will be as cold as then but that easterly whitened Dublin at first with plenty of Irish sea snow showers and was followed by an active low that pushed down from Scandinavia dumping close to a foot of snow in south Dublin and snow all the way to valentia in Kerry as it exited out into the atlantic.

Reverse zonality all the way.

I hope I havent jinxed this.

yes i remember '87 and was off school for most of the week. looking at other sites for the UK they are 100% certain there will be snow so hopefully it will feed over here in the easterly breezes! snow is marginal here at the best of times but at east there is hope..

darkman2 · 29-01-2009 1:17pm

LMAO at some of the stuff on NW. It's all over apparently because Southern England might miss out again:pac: We aint gonna miss out though for the second year in a row - is Ireland about to do better again from an Easterly? Me thinks so:)

Pangea · 29-01-2009 2:27pm

darkman2 wrote: »

LMAO at some of the stuff on NW. It's all over apparently because Southern England might miss out again:pac: We aint gonna miss out though for the second year in a row - is Ireland about to do better again from an Easterly? Me thinks so:)

whats NW?

WorriedSick · 29-01-2009 2:29pm

I must say guys.. Its pretty quiet in here this afternoon, especially since we could be on the brink of something great!! Where's Snowaddict, I enjoy his regular updates. Wouldn't it be great if we had Weather reports like these on Sunday / Monday... We can always dream!!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hd6DuebHliY

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qc49oYbAIr4

I remember this clearly, it snowed on my Birthday (Feb 5th) and from what I remember we got a few days off school. I'm in Shankill which is right on the coast so its very unusual!! Hopefully this time round, it will deliver! what a way to commemorate the 18th Anniversary of the snow of 1991!! God, I hope I didn't jinx it.. I'll shut up now!!

arctictree · 29-01-2009 2:39pm

WorriedSick wrote: »

I must say guys.. Its pretty quiet in here this afternoon, especially since we could be on the brink of something great!! Where's Snowaddict, I enjoy his regular updates. Wouldn't it be great if we had Weather reports like these on Sunday / Monday... We can always dream!!

They've gone to the Irish Weather Network forum : http://www.irelandsweather.com/forum/index.php

I think it is quite here because people don't want to jinx it - the main event is still quite far out...

29-01-2009 2:39pm

Pangea wrote: »

whats NW?

Cough

It's a UK centric weather forum.

By the way going back to the 80's esque nature of this beast,it was often the case that southern Britain warmed up a bit as say a channel low dragged in milder air to the south coast of England.
That usually strenthens the flow of cold over us further north though.

Hit and miss moderate or heavy snow showers from late sunday night right through to Tuesday are still very likely especially in Eastern areas but not exclusively.
I'm fairly hopefull that this will be heavy enough where it falls and that it will be cold enough for it to settle at sea level.

Goodness knows what will be happening up in the likes of artictree's place and annamoe...but it WILL be pretty

I think I just ramped...

I hope I havent jinxed this.

nacho libre · 29-01-2009 3:04pm

so it seems this month could go down in snow folklore, at least for those in the East anyway.

in fact if the snow won't come to me i'm tempted to take a trip eastwards

blackgold>> · 29-01-2009 3:06pm

we won't get snow. You guys cry wolf every few weeks.......

ninebeanrows · 29-01-2009 3:35pm

The great snow of 1991

ECM projection for Monday at T+96hrs this morning for 0000hrs Tuesday

Redsunset · 29-01-2009 3:40pm

blackgold>> wrote: »

we won't get snow. You guys cry wolf every few weeks.......

Ah did someone not get their porridge this morning.sorry no party poopers allowed.GET IN THE ZONE MAN.it will snow in east.end of story.:p

kerry1960 · 29-01-2009 3:41pm

Thats it then ...im leaving....selling the house...... loading up the chickens .......and going to live in wicklow....on sunday....:p.

Pangea · 29-01-2009 3:47pm

kerry1960 wrote: »

Thats it then ...im leaving....selling the house...... loading up the chickens .......and going to live in wicklow....on sunday....:p.

lol I think i wont be leaving donegal just yet

blackgold>> · 29-01-2009 3:51pm

redsunset wrote: »

Ah did someone not get their porridge this morning.sorry no party poopers allowed.GET IN THE ZONE MAN.it will snow in east.end of story.:p

Lol

Im in cork so i better be getting sneachta or there will be war.!!!!!

WorriedSick · 29-01-2009 3:52pm

kerry1960 wrote: »

Thats it then ...im leaving....selling the house...... loading up the chickens .......and going to live in wicklow....on sunday....:p.

Ok Guys, I got 3 spare rooms.. I'm right in the firing line.. €100 per room for the week.. Dinner included!! would suit someone from The Whest!

My map reading skills are non existant but just wondering if there are any similarities between the chart posted above by Weathercheck and the current charts for early next week? :rolleyes:

darkman2 · 29-01-2009 3:53pm

WC the FEB 91 event was somewhat colder then what is coming up, cold though it is. Synoptically very similar though.

29-01-2009 3:55pm

Weathercheck wrote: »

The great snow of 1991

ECM projection for Monday at T+96hrs this morning for 0000hrs Tuesday

Pretty similar isnt it.
I remember being in the yard here at home with swirling blinding dry snow coming down in a fog it was so heavy during that and being in the depth of my wellington boots and going uhm wow!

It was hit and miss though.On the monday [a week after it started] We drove to wicklow[had a hard time getting through Arklow due to the frozen snow on the road] and discovered that beyond the beehive and into Wicklow town there was very little snow.
Reason? A big blob had came in off the Irish sea overnight on the previous friday and into saturday and basically sat south of Wicklow head down to Mid Wexford.
Glorious stuff.

I hope I havent jinxed this...

29-01-2009 3:57pm

darkman2 wrote: »

WC the FEB 91 event was somewhat colder then what is coming up, cold though it is. Synoptically very similar though.

Agreed.
We have the dewpoints though so we're into safe territory.
All we need is the cover and enough of a freeze to get over the hump of mid week

I hope I havent jinxed this.

blackgold>> · 29-01-2009 4:03pm

What dewpoint point do we need for snow and what do those 1000's on the chart above mean?

nacho libre · 29-01-2009 4:08pm

the midlands and part of the southwest could also do well out of this cold period if a few troughs move south east wards across the country when the winds swing around to the northeast. the best those of us in sligo, donegal, leitrim, and mayo will likely get is a few meagre flurries. the east though will definitely be the place to be - the likes of supercell could be snowed in for days:)

Fierce Cold Spell from Sunday (February 1st)

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