Brexit discussion thread XIII (Please read OP before posting)

CelticRambler · 27-11-2020 10:19am

McGiver wrote: »

listermint wrote: »

These people will have to pull their finger out of their arse and start making proper decisions. Either go home or normalise their citizenship or working visa. There is no other options. No one is coming to rescue them and the luxury to live and work and holiday freely in 27 EU nations is gone forever or until such a time when the UK acts like an adult and engages completely in the EU project.

Not necessarily. They can just join the EEA:
1. Sign here please from now on (all EU laws)
2. Annual fee
3. Freedom of movement

Individuals - those about whom I was posting and listermint replying - can't opt to join the EEA off their own bat.

My friend, just turned 25, is the "perfect" Brexit victim - she's as English as they come, an Oxford grad to boot, but a true European as well. I first met her in a field in France and put her to work selling CDs for Mairtín O'Connor (barefoot in the rain! :pac: ). These days, she spends 11 months of the year in the EU, but she's still at that stage of being not-quite-a-student-not-quite-settled, so she has next to no chance of meeting the criteria for a working visa because she hasn't been alive long enough to claim residency, has a typical insecure young adult job, and - ultimate irony - if you didn't hear her speak in a posh English accent, you couldn't tell her apart from the gang of young Europeans she hangs out with. She's British, but not the least bit "exceptional" in the pejorative sense - or for the purposes of ousting a European from the jobs market.

The Brexiters voted to put an end to migration, and that's what they've done - for their own people. There's a whole generation of young, enthusiastic British Europhiles who are going to pay for that ... while the UK continues to import thousands of brown and black non-Christian immigrants. :rolleyes: )

steddyeddy · 27-11-2020 11:42am

The UK suffers largest output fall in 300 years. Yes this is certainly covid related, however, it's foolish to assume that Brexit doesn't at least play some part. I'm convinced that the UK will be destroyed economically because of Brexit.

Banana Republic 1 · 27-11-2020 11:46am

dogbert27 wrote: »

They highlighted loyalists in their post.

A majority did, there was still those who voted for it.

They have now been shafted by Johnson I wonder if that will al be forgotten in time for the next election.

The Raging Bile Duct · 27-11-2020 11:52am

steddyeddy wrote: »

The UK suffers largest output fall in 300 years. Yes this is certainly covid related, however, it's foolish to assume that Brexit doesn't at least play some part. I'm convinced that the UK will be destroyed economically because of Brexit.

The UK's GDP fell by 11.3%. Ireland's has fallen by 2.5% - it was estimated to fall by 10.5%.

Ireland's export economy seems to have held up well and actually grown - I think this is dominated by multinationals - while the domestic economy has been hammered. Maybe someone else can correct me on this.

volchitsa · 27-11-2020 12:23pm

listermint wrote: »

Who said they were brexiteers ?

NI voted against Brexit.

Lots of them voted against Brexit,TBF - I meant it was ironic because they were loyalists who considered themselves to be British, but as soon as any little difficulty arose, suddenly they're claiming a nationality they swore they never wanted anything to do with. This was in the days after the vote, no real problems had even been identified at that point.

You don't find it ironic to see them suddenly deciding they're Irish? Why do we still have all the problems with the border question, in that case?

fly_agaric · 27-11-2020 12:33pm

volchitsa wrote: »

Lots of them voted against Brexit,TBF - I meant it was ironic because they were loyalists who considered themselves to be British, but as soon as any little difficulty arose, suddenly they're claiming a nationality they swore they never wanted anything to do with. This was in the days after the vote, no real problems had even been identified at that point.

You don't find it ironic to see them suddenly deciding they're Irish? Why do we still have all the problems with the border question, in that case?

Yes, it is ironic. Lots of irony in Brexit.
I'm curious, if you have personal experience do you have any anecdotal insight into the mindset/thinking there (as regards getting an Irish passport)?

I'd be imagining if they are "loyalists" they'd have gone with the DUP view and supported Brexit all the way along (incl. the absolutist/extreme version of it that Conservative party have executed since the 2016 vote).

My guess was:

"I voted to f-ck NI nationalists royally and destabilise the GFA and now the fools down South give me a passport I can use to dodge any personal blowback from my vote when I need to!"

but I admit I'm probably not a very nice/charitable person and a complete cynic with a dim view of NI loyalists.

Brussels Sprout · 27-11-2020 12:44pm

5 weeks to go. Honestly I thought there would be more of a fuss about this at this stage.

The BBC homepage doesn't appear to have any stories on it (although I think I'm seeing the international version of that site but still...).
The RTE homepage has a Barnier story as one of the less prominent stories.

Professor Moriarty · 27-11-2020 12:50pm

Brussels Sprout wrote: »

5 weeks to go. Honestly I thought there would be more of a fuss about this at this stage.

The BBC homepage doesn't appear to have any stories on it (although I think I'm seeing the international version of that site but still...).
The RTE homepage has a Barnier story as one of the less prominent stories.

You're reading the wrong news media. Top headline right now in The Express:
"Von der Leyen triggers emergency no-deal Brexit plans after Barnier's alarming update
BRUSSELS has been ordered to trigger immediate preparations for a no-deal Brexit after Michel Barnier issued a gloomy warning over the future of the trade talks."

MBSnr · 27-11-2020 1:03pm

Brussels Sprout wrote: »

5 weeks to go. Honestly I thought there would be more of a fuss about this at this stage.

The BBC homepage doesn't appear to have any stories on it (although I think I'm seeing the international version of that site but still...).
The RTE homepage has a Barnier story as one of the less prominent stories.

I think outside of those on forums, on twitter and political websites most UK people (and to be honest a fair few Irish) just don't care and the UK media doesn't necessary bother as a consequence.

I no longer mention the Brexit topic to most friends and family in the UK. It was apparent years ago it was pointless. No point rattling cages and causing issues, so it's left hanging - the elephant in the room. The UK friends general indifference to it (as they're not in Ireland) basically told me they aren't very interested, even though they know it'll be a problem for Ireland. Even at this stage the few family Leaver voters I know are probably aware it's gone horribly wrong but it's a subject that still can't be mentioned and it's just dismissed...

lawred2 · 27-11-2020 1:07pm

MBSnr wrote: »

I think outside of those on forums, on twitter and political websites most UK people (and to be honest a fair few Irish) just don't care and the UK media doesn't necessary bother as a consequence.

I no longer mention the Brexit topic to most friends and family in the UK. It was apparent years ago it was pointless. No point rattling cages and causing issues, so it's left hanging - the elephant in the room. The UK friends general indifference to it (as they're not in Ireland) basically told me they aren't very interested, even though they know it'll be a problem for Ireland. Even at this stage the few family Leaver voters I know are probably aware it's gone horribly wrong but it's a subject that still can't be mentioned and it's just dismissed...

sister lives in London (she's been in the UK since she started college) - effectively her entire adult life has been in the UK - but Brexit isn't even a topic for them..

they just roll their eyes when it's mentioned

I can pretty much gather from her that the general sentiment is that nothing much will change.

Incredible to me but there you go.

Leroy42 · 27-11-2020 1:10pm

Brussels Sprout wrote: »

5 weeks to go. Honestly I thought there would be more of a fuss about this at this stage.

The BBC homepage doesn't appear to have any stories on it (although I think I'm seeing the international version of that site but still...).
The RTE homepage has a Barnier story as one of the less prominent stories.

Sunak didn't even mention Brexit during his recent spending review. It is like it isn't happening at all.

I remember thinking back when Covid first started to hit, that it would be a great excuse for the UK government to hide the impact of Brexit, and thus far that is proving to be the case.

Anything and everything will be blamed on Covid. When asked about it, HMG ministers of spokespeople simply stick to the line that a deal can still be done, but it never followed up by asking what the actual impact of losing previous EU status will actually have.

Emily Thornbery did a great example of trying to cut through that this week when she asked yet again, what the comparative effects of the new UK-Japan trade deal were compared to the EU-Japan deal, since Liz Truss continues to exclaim that it is a great deal. The government either don't know, or won't give the details.

Zubeneschamali · 27-11-2020 1:10pm

The Raging Bile Duct wrote: »

Ireland's export economy seems to have held up well and actually grown - I think this is dominated by multinationals - while the domestic economy has been hammered.

This is the same in the UK, COVID hit the domestic service economy.

But now Brexit is going to hammer the parts of their economy that COVID missed, trade and exports.

MBSnr · 27-11-2020 1:13pm

lawred2 wrote: »

sister lives in London (she's been in the UK since she started college) - effectively her entire adult life has been in the UK - but Brexit isn't even a topic for them..

they just roll their eyes when it's mentioned

I can pretty much gather from her that the general sentiment is that nothing much will change.

Incredible to me but there you go.

Same for me. They think I'm overly obsessed by it (I am a little perhaps alright... :eek:)...

I rem at the time mentioning the NI border issue (I was sitting in their house in London watching Blair and Major on the news warning about it) and I said that's going to be a major problem you know.
Ah no, sure it'll be grand was the response...

Leroy42 · 27-11-2020 1:13pm

lawred2 wrote: »

sister lives in London (she's been in the UK since she started college) - effectively her entire adult life has been in the UK - but Brexit isn't even a topic for them..

they just roll their eyes when it's mentioned

I can pretty much gather from her that the general sentiment is that nothing much will change.

Incredible to me but there you go.

Yeah, they all seem to believe that a last minute deal will be done (it might) and that that deal will mean that nothing changes (it won't).

There is little doubt that the UK public, as evidenced by the fact that so few business appear to be even close to ready (or in some cases even considered that they might need to prepare). I think Give said a few months ago it was something like 35% had even considered doing something.

Somehow, everything will simply remain the way it was. It is the continuation of the very narrative of Brexit. Somehow everything is going to change, except for everything that they actually like.

Harry Palmr · 27-11-2020 1:13pm

Related news, a new six day service between Rosslare and Dunkirk has just been announced (as expected) by DFDS. Probably the first of a few such announcements.

https://www.agriland.ie/farming-news/new-ferry-service-announced-between-ireland-and-france/

A new ferry service between Ireland and France has been announced which will offer “lorries and their drivers direct and paperless transport between EU countries”.

On January 2, 2021, Danish international shipping and logistics firm DFDS will commence sailings on a new freight ferry route between Rosslare in the Republic of Ireland Dunkirk in northern France.

The route will be serviced by three ferries, each with a capacity for up to 125 lorries and their drivers in Covid-19 safe single cabins.

There will be six weekly departures from each port, either in the afternoon or evening, with a crossing time of 24 hours.

This will bring the number of direct sailings between Rosslare and Europe up to 13 every week during peak times.

CelticRambler · 27-11-2020 1:23pm

Brussels Sprout wrote: »

5 weeks to go. Honestly I thought there would be more of a fuss about this at this stage.

But sure didn't Boris get Brexit done back in January? And sure we hardly noticed any difference - what's there to be fussing about now, when all they're talking about is a who catches a few fish ... :rolleyes:

I genuinely believe that the vast majority of the British really don't have any idea of what's at stake if Johnson & Co. continue with their futile machinations for the domestic audience and the UK default's into an "Australia-style" (aka North-Korea-style) no-deal status on Jan 1st.

So far, almost all the reactions I've heard or read about are "we'll be grand ... I can live without [insert obviously exotic product here] ... sure you have to queue for ages at the regional airport anyway ... it'll be no different that selling to America ..." Some individuals do seem to have informed themselves of what they need to do for their business, but they're completely ignorant of what it'll mean for their life in general, where so many aspects of that are dependent on someone else's business.

CelticRambler · 27-11-2020 1:26pm

The Raging Bile Duct wrote: »

The UK's GDP fell by 11.3%. Ireland's has fallen by 2.5% - it was estimated to fall by 10.5%.

Ireland's export economy seems to have held up well and actually grown - I think this is dominated by multinationals - while the domestic economy has been hammered. Maybe someone else can correct me on this.

In a time of global pandemic, it helps to have a healthy pharma and medical devices sector!

An Ciarraioch · 27-11-2020 1:28pm

Barnier will offer the UK 15-18% of the current EU quota, as a mixture of flatfish, cod, mackerel etc - I can see this being a scenario whereby that is haggled up to 30-35%, and Johnson presents still ceding two-thirds of the current quota as a "great victory"!

Patser · 27-11-2020 1:30pm

Barnier has made an offer on UK fishing worth about €117 million a year.

Gives Johnson his big headline victory.
Hopefully gets the EU a Level playing field.
All for €118million.....

https://www.rte.ie/news/brexit/2020/1127/1180825-brexit/

ancapailldorcha · 27-11-2020 1:35pm

lawred2 wrote: »

sister lives in London (she's been in the UK since she started college) - effectively her entire adult life has been in the UK - but Brexit isn't even a topic for them..

they just roll their eyes when it's mentioned

I can pretty much gather from her that the general sentiment is that nothing much will change.

Incredible to me but there you go.

Fairly common attitude here to be honest. I think covid has deadened a lot of people's sense and just left them numb and that's not unreasonable. My understanding from my contact in the civil service is that preparations have been made to keep the essentials coming in.

That's not to say that this will prevent issues with lorry queues, inflation, etc. Just that it's not going to be immediately become apparent what sort of a disaster Brexit will be. It's be economic attrition over time as opposed to economic catastrophe.

That said, I say that as someone with another 18 months on their employment contract with said contract already having the requisite funds allocated and an EU passport so I won't be representative of those whose jobs are most vulnerable. Psychologically, I've lost my capacity to care if this country enters the completely artificial disaster that Brexit seems certain to cause. They voted in 2019 with all the facts to keep faith with the party who initiated the whole process so it's completely legitimate now as far as I'm concerned. My biggest issue would be shipping my gaming PC back home to rural Ireland so I'm fortunate enough in that regard.

It's sad. I like living here. The UK has a wonderfully interesting history and you can integrate as much or as little as you like so long as you're not interfering with other people. It's got some world-beating scenery, it's wonderfully diverse and most towns would have everything you need or want but there have been two elections since the referendum so some form of Brexit needs to happen before anything changes in political discourse here.

ancapailldorcha · 27-11-2020 1:36pm

Patser wrote: »

Barnier has made an offer on UK fishing worth about €117 million a year.

Gives Johnson his big headline victory.
Hopefully gets the EU a Level playing field.
All for €118million.....

https://www.rte.ie/news/brexit/2020/1127/1180825-brexit/

By my reckoning, that's less than a week's worth of their net contributions to Brussels.

Leroy42 · 27-11-2020 1:37pm

I certainly think the UK will win on the fish, the EU really have little real leverage on this particular area. It was something the UK had to trade to get access to the EU, thus it makes perfect sense they would get it back on leaving.

But, IMO, the EU have allowed it to be a main factor in the negotiations, when in reality it isn't. But it is very important to the UK and thus will use this fact, and dress it up as something more important to the EU than it actually is.

Why would the EU not listen to German Car makers but will give up things for the fishing fleets?

They will actually get more than they could have in terms of access, and get what they actually want which is level playing field etc.

ancapailldorcha · 27-11-2020 1:39pm

Leroy42 wrote: »

I certainly think the UK will win on the fish, the EU really have little real leverage on this particular area. It was something the UK had to trade to get access to the EU, thus it makes perfect sense they would get it back on leaving.

But, IMO, the EU have allowed it to be a main factor in the negotiations, when in reality it isn't. But it is very important to the UK and thus will use this fact, and dress it up as something more important to the EU than it actually is.

Why would the EU not listen to German Car makers but will give up things for the fishing fleets?

They will actually get more than they could have in terms of access, and get what they actually want which is level playing field etc.

I'm not so sure. Macron has been vocal about this and he's probably the loudest and most influential of the EU27. Then you have the Danes, the Spanish, the Dutch, the Belgians, the Norwegians and so on. Fish aren't just important to the UK.

I'd be waiting to see the nitty gritty of any deal before making a call myself. Some token concession for the tabloids and the resumption of the angling status quo seems likely to me.

Leroy42 · 27-11-2020 1:46pm

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

I'm not so sure. Macron has been vocal about this and he's probably the loudest and most influential of the EU27. Then you have the Danes, the Spanish, the Dutch, the Belgians, the Norwegians and so on. Fish aren't just important to the UK.

I'd be waiting to see the nitty gritty of any deal before making a call myself. Some token concession for the tabloids and the resumption of the angling status quo seems likely to me.

Macron has to be seen to be doing something. If they are allowed continued access, whatever the final % they can keep, that is a major win for the EU. For France etc. And remember that it isn't just the fleet itself. There are processing, markets, traders etc that are involved and they will all be relatively ok, compared to the alternative of no access.

Like Ireland, there is a cost to Brexit to this areas, and like Ireland there is really only mitigation that can be done, the damage cannot be avoided.

listermint · 27-11-2020 1:56pm

reading under the comments of Tony Connellys tweet on this would make your eyes bleed. There alot of brexiteers giving out about the paltry offering. Id imagine that mindset will be mirrored in cabinet.

I havent seen that many brexiteers turn up on Tonys tweets in a long time.

Strazdas · 27-11-2020 2:01pm

listermint wrote: »

reading under the comments of Tony Connellys tweet on this would make your eyes bleed. There alot of brexiteers giving out about the paltry offering. Id imagine that mindset will be mirrored in cabinet.

I havent seen that many brexiteers turn up on Tonys tweets in a long time.

Fish, fish, fish, that's all that matters to them.

None of them seem to be in business and they are definitely not involved in imports or exports.

ancapailldorcha · 27-11-2020 2:04pm

Leroy42 wrote: »

Macron has to be seen to be doing something. If they are allowed continued access, whatever the final % they can keep, that is a major win for the EU. For France etc. And remember that it isn't just the fleet itself. There are processing, markets, traders etc that are involved and they will all be relatively ok, compared to the alternative of no access.

Like Ireland, there is a cost to Brexit to this areas, and like Ireland there is really only mitigation that can be done, the damage cannot be avoided.

Sure but Macron has a veto and can ultimately sink the whole deal if he chooses to. We saw him act the same way with the last extension in 2019.

I agree regarding damage but each of the EU27 has their own set of priorities and they're going to act accordingly. Damage mitigation is important but so is protecting the single market.

Strazdas wrote: »

Fish, fish, fish, that's all that matters to them.

None of them seem to be in business and they are definitely not involved in imports or exports.

It's not fish, it's the idea of compromising that some here detest. If it were fish then access to the EU's market would be a much higher priority.

Strazdas · 27-11-2020 2:06pm

lawred2 wrote: »

sister lives in London (she's been in the UK since she started college) - effectively her entire adult life has been in the UK - but Brexit isn't even a topic for them..

they just roll their eyes when it's mentioned

I can pretty much gather from her that the general sentiment is that nothing much will change.

Incredible to me but there you go.

It almost explains the disaster coming down the tracks. They think they can take a sledgehammer to UK-EU relations, leave the SMCU and yet somehow everything will remain the same. A total lack of awareness of how interdependent the UK was with the EU.

declanflynn · 27-11-2020 2:10pm

Patser wrote: »

Barnier has made an offer on UK fishing worth about €117 million a year.

Gives Johnson his big headline victory.
Hopefully gets the EU a Level playing field.
All for €118million.....

https://www.rte.ie/news/brexit/2020/1127/1180825-brexit/

It was smart negotiating by the EU to get the uk to agree to a level playing field in return for less than the value of the fish finger market in england

Leroy42 · 27-11-2020 2:16pm

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

117 million is nothing in grand scheme of things, EU already pays farmers billions every year literally not to grow/produce food, paying fishermen in France, Ireland, Belgium, Spain etc 117 million a year to catch less fish would be more of the same.

Now UK losing access to single market when it comes to services on the other hand would alone cost UK economy billions year on year and grow EU economy.

On the face of it it looks really quite clever. The UK have been demanding that the EU recognise the UK rights to control their waters, and this offer is very much agreeing to that. It also have the added benefit of some in the UK fishing industry basically getting almost 20% of the annual catch for free, since the EU boats will do all the work, take all the risks, just to hand it over to the UK.

It is clearly nowhere close to being enough, but it is a starting point, and now the UK, after crying for months that the EU are not trying, will have to reject it and thus No Deal is firmly at their feet.

Imreoir2 · 27-11-2020 2:23pm

Patser wrote: »

Barnier has made an offer on UK fishing worth about €117 million a year.

Gives Johnson his big headline victory.
Hopefully gets the EU a Level playing field.
All for €118million.....

https://www.rte.ie/news/brexit/2020/1127/1180825-brexit/

A cheap victory for the EU. Fishing communities can easily be compensated by increasing subsidies and FLAGS funding.

Strazdas · 27-11-2020 2:28pm

Leroy42 wrote: »

On the face of it it looks really quite clever. The UK have been demanding that the EU recognise the UK rights to control their waters, and this offer is very much agreeing to that. It also have the added benefit of some in the UK fishing industry basically getting almost 20% of the annual catch for free, since the EU boats will do all the work, take all the risks, just to hand it over to the UK.

It is clearly nowhere close to being enough, but it is a starting point, and now the UK, after crying for months that the EU are not trying, will have to reject it and thus No Deal is firmly at their feet.

But the Brexit crowd seem to think the offer is utterly derisory if social media is anything to go by. I'm not convinced these guys are in the humour for any sort of compromise.

ancapailldorcha · 27-11-2020 2:32pm

Strazdas wrote: »

But the Brexit crowd seem to think the offer is utterly derisory if social media is anything to go by. I'm not convinced these guys are in the humour for any sort of compromise.

I don't think social media is anything other than an appalling metric. Polls would be a much better choice once they appear.

Imreoir2 · 27-11-2020 2:34pm

Strazdas wrote: »

But the Brexit crowd seem to think the offer is utterly derisory if social media is anything to go by. I'm not convinced these guys are in the humour for any sort of compromise.

They were in no humour for a border in the Irish sea either, but then Borris said it was a great deal and they went into cheerleader mode.

EU offers 18%, Borris demands more, a figure is agreed in the middle. The EU makes a cheap concession to get a suitable deal, the Brexiters cheer, and the British economey goes to sleep with the fish.

Mezcita · 27-11-2020 2:34pm

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

Fairly common attitude here to be honest. I think covid has deadened a lot of people's sense and just left them numb and that's not unreasonable. My understanding from my contact in the civil service is that preparations have been made to keep the essentials coming in.

That's not to say that this will prevent issues with lorry queues, inflation, etc. Just that it's not going to be immediately become apparent what sort of a disaster Brexit will be. It's be economic attrition over time as opposed to economic catastrophe.

That said, I say that as someone with another 18 months on their employment contract with said contract already having the requisite funds allocated and an EU passport so I won't be representative of those whose jobs are most vulnerable. Psychologically, I've lost my capacity to care if this country enters the completely artificial disaster that Brexit seems certain to cause. They voted in 2019 with all the facts to keep faith with the party who initiated the whole process so it's completely legitimate now as far as I'm concerned. My biggest issue would be shipping my gaming PC back home to rural Ireland so I'm fortunate enough in that regard.

It's sad. I like living here. The UK has a wonderfully interesting history and you can integrate as much or as little as you like so long as you're not interfering with other people. It's got some world-beating scenery, it's wonderfully diverse and most towns would have everything you need or want but there have been two elections since the referendum so some form of Brexit needs to happen before anything changes in political discourse here.

100%. Also living here and it's just not really a major discussion point for people I know.

Assuming Johnson gets a deal it can be spun in a way which will lead people to believe that they have just got one over the EU. I wonder what the tipping point will be in people's minds though?

Strazdas · 27-11-2020 2:46pm

Mezcita wrote: »

100%. Also living here and it's just not really a major discussion point for people I know.

Assuming Johnson gets a deal it can be spun in a way which will lead people to believe that they have just got one over the EU. I wonder what the tipping point will be in people's minds though?

Well, the border chaos at Dover (and other ports) is going to happen on January 1st no matter what. It has nothing to do with the trade deal.

Brussels Sprout · 27-11-2020 2:51pm

So is this fishing thing the final impediment in the way of a larger deal? If they get this resolved what's the broader agreement? Will the UK then have some form of single market access? Will there still be chaos in Kent in January?

Edit: I think you answered my second question in the post above Strazdas

Strazdas · 27-11-2020 3:12pm

Brussels Sprout wrote: »

So is this fishing thing the final impediment in the way of a larger deal? If they get this resolved what's the broader agreement? Will the UK then have some form of single market access? Will there still be chaos in Kent in January?

Edit: I think you answered my second question in the post above Strazdas

Yes, still a hard border (including with the island of Ireland) and a need for customs forms and customs declarations on all goods, no matter whether there is a trade deal or not.

Things are about to get very messy.

ancapailldorcha · 27-11-2020 3:22pm

Mezcita wrote: »

100%. Also living here and it's just not really a major discussion point for people I know.

Assuming Johnson gets a deal it can be spun in a way which will lead people to believe that they have just got one over the EU. I wonder what the tipping point will be in people's minds though?

I think Covid and Brexit fatigue will give Johnson considerable leeway. The tabloids can start screaming about Brexit betrayal but even if that's not entirely ineffectual, all it will do is split the Tory vote while Labour have an electable leader.

In a culture of 24-hour, disposable outrage, an unsatisfactory Brexit deal will just be replaced by something equally vapid very quickly. Nobody voted for increased trade. If they think they've left and that freedom of movement has ended that'll satisfy the vast majority of people.

Brussels Sprout · 27-11-2020 5:16pm

Strazdas wrote: »

Yes, still a hard border (including with the island of Ireland) and a need for customs forms and customs declarations on all goods, no matter whether there is a trade deal or not.

Things are about to get very messy.

Wait what? There's going to be a hard border in Ireland in 5 weeks time regardless of what happens? Who's going to establish that?

Nate--IRL-- · 27-11-2020 5:22pm

Brussels Sprout wrote: »

Wait what? There's going to be a hard border in Ireland in 5 weeks time regardless of what happens? Who's going to establish that?

With the Island of Ireland, not in Ireland.

Nate

Strazdas · 27-11-2020 5:28pm

Brussels Sprout wrote: »

Wait what? There's going to be a hard border in Ireland in 5 weeks time regardless of what happens? Who's going to establish that?

No, I meant a border down the Irish Sea. The entire island will be considered a separate customs entity to the UK after January 1st.

Brussels Sprout · 27-11-2020 5:41pm

Ah ok - say basically back to Boris's "oven ready deal" but with extra fish?

Patser · 27-11-2020 5:58pm

Positive sounds coming out about Northern Ireland (another big sticking point), and talk of a deal by mid-December. Jaysus that's cutting it close, and God help anyone trying to plan for next year

https://twitter.com/tconnellyRTE/status/1332360480858501122

tanko · 27-11-2020 6:12pm

A deal is inevitable, it'll go down to the wire but it will be done.
Everyone sitting around the table knows that there is no way the UK economy could cope with the damage a no deal Brexit would involve. They are in a hopeless negotiating position.
Their economy is already a basket case because of Covid.
The deal will be more BRINO than BREXIT which was never a realistic proposition to start with.

Seth Brundle · 27-11-2020 6:15pm

Patser wrote: »

Positive sounds coming out about Northern Ireland (another big sticking point), and talk of a deal by mid-December. Jaysus that's cutting it close, and God help anyone trying to plan for next year

https://twitter.com/tconnellyRTE/status/1332360480858501122

That really isn't giving the British businesses or the civil service much time to make any necessary arrangements. Whilst the EU may provide a phasing in period (which the transition period was really supposed to be), it just shows how badly the British government have managed this.
I can't think of any project in my life that was as badly planned and carried out as this.

Enzokk · 27-11-2020 6:15pm

Patser wrote: »

Positive sounds coming out about Northern Ireland (another big sticking point), and talk of a deal by mid-December. Jaysus that's cutting it close, and God help anyone trying to plan for next year

https://twitter.com/tconnellyRTE/status/1332360480858501122

That isn't about the FTA but the Withdrawal Agreement, right? The outstanding issue on level playing field, fisheries and governance still remain. There is also scope to implement a deal temporarily once it has been agreed before the 1st January I believe, so negotiations can go on for most of the next month still and avoid a crash out. That is why most people seem relaxed about it all right now.

Infini · 27-11-2020 6:32pm

tanko wrote: »

A deal is inevitable, it'll go down to the wire but it will be done.
Everyone sitting around the table knows that there is no way the UK economy could cope with the damage a no deal Brexit would involve. They are in a hopeless negotiating position.
Their economy is already a basket case because of Covid.
The deal will be more BRINO than BREXIT which was never a realistic proposition to start with.

All well and good believing this and in most cases you'd be right but this British Goverment is the most incompetent and idiotic in modern times, none of this was needed and should have been sorted well before now and all it takes is something to bring the whole lot down by accident weather it be someone in the right position at the wrong time or something else.

The talk's honestly SHOULD be successful but they could easily fail as well if events over the last number of years have shown it's that rank stupidity can be found at any level of a government and it's so easy for someone to make a needless mess of things either by accident or with malicious intent. It aint over till everything is signed.

Patser · 27-11-2020 6:39pm

Enzokk wrote: »

That isn't about the FTA but the Withdrawal Agreement, right? The outstanding issue on level playing field, fisheries and governance still remain. There is also scope to implement a deal temporarily once it has been agreed before the 1st January I believe, so negotiations can go on for most of the next month still and avoid a crash out. That is why most people seem relaxed about it all right now.

So in theory, the sorting out of the withdrawal agreement could make a no deal exit more likely, as the back up plan is now sorted? Or this is something that has to be sorted one way or another

Strazdas · 27-11-2020 6:48pm

Patser wrote: »

So in theory, the sorting out of the withdrawal agreement could make a no deal exit more likely, as the back up plan is now sorted? Or this is something that has to be sorted one way or another

The Irish Protocol has to be implemented by the UK no matter what, so the issue of the trade deal is a completely separate one. It's rather unclear what the implications would be for a trade deal.

Brexit discussion thread XIII (Please read OP before posting)

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