Cheltenham Best & Worst Bet

hugh janus · 14-02-2020 1:30pm

BoldReason wrote: »

I've no real strong fancy but jesus have no idea how in the name of God Ilikethewayyourthinking is a 5/1 shot in any race? He will go off 8/1+

Jockey was very easy on Ilikethewayyourthinking at Leopardstown but not as easy as Keith Donoghue was on Ben Dundee.I missed the price on him too.

IAMAMORON · 14-02-2020 1:34pm

I don't know who wins the Albert Bartlett 3m novice hurdle. But I think if you wait until the final declarations you will definitely be in a position to find a big priced winner. The favs have an awful record in the race. Check out the prices of the winners over the last few years. Huge for a grade 1.

Previous Years
2019 Minella Indo 6 11-5 Rachael Blackmore 50/1 (Henry De Bromhead)
2018 Kilbricken Storm 7 11-5 Harry Cobden 33/1 (C L Tizzard)
2017 Penhill 6 11-5 P Townend 16/1 (W P Mullins)
2016 Unowhatimeanharry 8 11-5 N D Fehily 11/1 (H Fry)
2015 Martello Tower 7 11-7 A P Heskin 14/1 (Ms Margaret Mullins)
2014 Very Wood 5 11-7 P Carberry 33/1 (Noel Meade)
2013 At Fishers Cross 6 11-7 A P McCoy 11/8Fav (Miss Rebecca Curtis)
2012 Brindisi Breeze 6 11-7 Campell Gillies 7/1 (Miss L Russell)
2011 Bobs Worth 6 11-7 B J Geraghty 15/8Fav (Nicky Henderson)
2010 Berties Dream 7 11-7 A E Lynch 33/1 (Paul John Gilligan)
2009 Weapon's Amnesty 6 11-7 D N Russell 8/1 (C Byrnes)
2008 Nenuphar Collonges 7 11-7 R Thornton 9-1 (Alan King)
2007 Wichita Lineman 6 11-7 A P McCoy 11/8Fav (Jonjo O'Neill)
2006 Black Jack Ketchum 7 11-7 A P McCoy 1/1Fav (Jonjo O'Neill)
2005 Moulin Riche 5 11-7 R Thornton 9/1 (F Doumen)

Only 4 favs in the last 15 years. All of the winners had shown a degree of form during the year, they simply got overlooked in the betting.

It also has not produced a decent chaser since Bobs Worth, remarkable given the profile of the race. I will be dissecting the paper on the morning of the race looking for a lightly enough raced improver at a big price.

supremenovice · 14-02-2020 2:33pm

Kauto wrote: »

He wont be getting 3M at Cheltenhan. It is 3M 2 1/2F. He got an easy lead last time and still couldn't win. Has little chance of staying the trip!

I like the way Monalee has been minded this year by De Bromhead, who is arguably trainer of the season in my opinion. Not to mention the fact that the sport could have a new star on its hands if Blackmore wins the Gold Cup (although she certainly isnt media friendly like, say, Dettori is). His journey to the GC isnt too dissimilar to Don Cossack when you look into it.
RE Defi - I just dont think the form with 12yo Un de Sceaux is very good compared with Altior and Chacun, or even dark horse Cilaos Emery. Mullins will know exactly where he stands. Dynamite Dollars caught my eye big time at Newbury last week.

IAMAMORON · 14-02-2020 3:32pm

The worst value of the festival has to be the Queen Mother. The bookies are high fiving already, they have booked their annual bonus on it.

3 brilliant chasers at the top of the market and no one truly knows how the race will pan out. The fact remains that if one of them wins it, the rest of the punters are throwing their ticket on the ground, money gone.

The general price of the 3 is 5/2 or 2/1, brutal shight altogether.

I will be watching this one, (I reckon Defi de Sueil wins it btw, but he can win all day at 2 to fooooking 1, no thanks.)

https://www.oddschecker.com/cheltenham-festival/champion-chase/winner

realdanbreen · 14-02-2020 4:42pm

Gavin shels wrote: »

Best: Glenloe (Kim Muir)

Worst: Notebook (Arkle)

My fear for Glenloe would be irish horses don't have a great record in the Kim Muir

Margate · 14-02-2020 4:47pm

realdanbreen wrote: »

My fear for Glenloe would be irish horses don't have a great record in the Kim Muir

such an irrelevant stat

madmoose · 14-02-2020 5:43pm

realdanbreen wrote: »

My fear for Glenloe would be irish horses don't have a great record in the Kim Muir

Any Second Now last year won it and Cause of Causes won it not so long ago

yaboya1 · 14-02-2020 7:03pm

realdanbreen wrote: »

My fear for Glenloe would be irish horses don't have a great record in the Kim Muir

Irish trained horses have won 3 of the last 6.

BumperD · 14-02-2020 7:17pm

Credit where credit due the lad on upping the Ante put up ilikethewayyourthinking to win any race at 25/1 couple months back

NaiveMelodies · 14-02-2020 7:30pm

BumperD wrote: »

Credit where credit due the lad on upping the Ante put up ilikethewayyourthinking to win any race at 25/1 couple months back

Great shout but how much is anyone getting on that type of special bet?

Slattsy · 14-02-2020 10:01pm

NaiveMelodies wrote: »

Great shout but how much is anyone getting on that type of special bet?

If I had 50 quid on it I'd be happy.

BumperD · 15-02-2020 12:03am

NaiveMelodies wrote: »

Great shout but how much is anyone getting on that type of special bet?

I’ve no idea may 100 or less I guess

BumperD · 15-02-2020 12:04am

Slattsy wrote: »

If I had 50 quid on it I'd be happy.

That would be a tasty docket to be sleeping on

Always Tired · 15-02-2020 12:29am

Best: Delta Work (Gold cup) tho ill probably back Native River too as I have a soft spot for him

Worst: Al Boum Photo (Gold Cup) rarely has a horse won the race back to back, even Kauto Star when it won twice didnt do it back to back.

Croll · 19-02-2020 10:15am

Considering it's only 3 weeks away give me your best bet of the Wednesday.

Tiger roll - Appreciate it double for me, almost 5-1

supremenovice · 19-02-2020 10:47am

Croll wrote: »

Considering it's only 3 weeks away give me your best bet of the Wednesday

Dynamite Dollars in the Queen Mother. Love how he ran against Altior and was nowhere near fit. Defi is over-hyped and Chacun as well. Altior prep has been woeful so I'm willing to take a big punt on the maestro Paul Nicholls getting another Champion Chase win. You's will all be sick of me piping on about him for the next 3 weeks

Croll · 19-02-2020 10:52am

supremenovice wrote: »

Dynamite Dollars in the Queen Mother. Love how he ran against Altior and was nowhere near fit. Defi is over-hyped and Chacun as well. Altior prep has been woeful so I'm willing to take a big punt on the maestro Paul Nicholls getting another Champion Chase win. You's will all be sick of me piping on about him for the next 3 weeks

Thought he was very impressive against Altior the last day too, only worry is there might not be enough runners to make it a good race for en each way bet and I wouldnt be certain that none of the 3 at the top wont turn up to make him worth backing to win

Pogue eile · 19-02-2020 11:53am

Chacun is going to a lovely price on the day I think, the natives will wade into the other two, he is already out to 11/4. If he had any course form I would be very confident but at the same time don't see any reason why he wont like Cheltenham, could be the race of the festival, great to have a number of high class two mile chasers like the great days of Moscow Flyer, Well Chief and Azertyioup.

Gavin "shels" · 21-02-2020 10:05am

Gavin shels wrote: »

Best: Glenloe (Kim Muir)

Worst: Notebook (Arkle)

Can I change my best?

Slattsy · 21-02-2020 10:13am

Slattsy wrote: »

Best: Champagne Classic

Worst: Shishkin

I actually had CC down as my best bet

RivetingRoger · 21-02-2020 10:36am

Is Champagne Classic going the NHC or RSA do we think

Slattsy · 21-02-2020 10:38am

RivetingRoger wrote: »

Is Champagne Classic going the NHC or RSA do we think

If CC goes RSA i'm packing it in and taking up fishing.

Charlie George · 21-02-2020 10:58am

Best - staker Wallace 20/1...(foxhunters)
Lay- Tiger roll 1/1. ( Xcountry)

Croll · 21-02-2020 11:10am

Charlie George wrote: »

Best - staker Wallace 20/1...(foxhunters)
Lay- Tiger roll 1/1. ( Xcountry)

How could you lay tiger roll

Slattsy · 21-02-2020 11:19am

Croll wrote: »

How could you lay tiger roll

Easily, he's way too short in what looks a tougher race than previous years and he's only back form injury.

Croll · 21-02-2020 11:44am

Slattsy wrote: »

Easily, he's way too short in what looks a tougher race than previous years and he's only back form injury.

Bar Easysland who is a bit of an unknown he has no challengers at all, he looked great for 2 miles lto on heavy ground, theyll have him fit for cheltenham and same thing will happen as last year

Slattsy · 21-02-2020 1:01pm

Croll wrote: »

Bar Easysland who is a bit of an unknown he has no challengers at all, he looked great for 2 miles lto on heavy ground, theyll have him fit for cheltenham and same thing will happen as last year

Yanworth and Might Bite too.

Earendil · 21-02-2020 1:43pm

Slattsy wrote: »

Yanworth and Might Bite too.

a non-genuine animal in my John Humble.

Will be interested to see how Might Bite gets on....the mad bastard.

Slattsy · 21-02-2020 1:48pm

Earendil wrote: »

a non-genuine animal in my John Humble.

Will be interested to see how Might Bite gets on....the mad bastard.

Oh most definitely, but a good animal on his day. Jumps slow, but i think the race will suit him. I tend not to bet on this race but Yanworth will carry my 10er.

Croll · 21-02-2020 1:51pm

Slattsy wrote: »

Yanworth and Might Bite too.

Don't think Yanworth is of the quality to compete with the top 2 and might bite just needs retirement, Tiger at evens in which is basically a match bet between him and easysland aint bad

Earendil · 21-02-2020 2:02pm

Croll wrote: »

Don't think Yanworth is of the quality to compete with the top 2 and might bite just needs retirement, Tiger at evens in which is basically a match bet between him and easysland aint bad

Yanworth has never been short of quality....a bottler though.

Easyland without doubt the biggest threat this year to the Tiger that Rolls.

Loved On the Fringe for these a few years back.

madmoose · 21-02-2020 2:19pm

Earendil wrote: »

Yanworth has never been short of quality....a bottler though.

Easyland without doubt the biggest threat this year to the Tiger that Rolls.

Loved On the Fringe for these a few years back.

I havent rewatched the replay but wasnt easysland very dodgy over some of the obstacles in december from what i recall and this race is level weights but it was a handicap back when he won so im not sure he can beat a Tiger Roll that will come on from the boyne race

Croll · 21-02-2020 2:27pm

madmoose wrote: »

I havent rewatched the replay but wasnt easysland very dodgy over some of the obstacles in december from what i recall and this race is level weights but it was a handicap back when he won so im not sure he can beat a Tiger Roll that will come on from the boyne race

Yeah and he was off 139 I think when winning that handicap which is a long way off, the jockey was the main problem with the jumping but with JP now the owner i'm sure a different jockey will be on for cc

realdanbreen · 21-02-2020 4:22pm

madmoose wrote: »

Any Second Now last year won it and Cause of Causes won it not so long ago

Oh right, so disregard years 2007 to 2015, plus 2017 and 2018!

realdanbreen · 21-02-2020 4:28pm

yaboya1 wrote: »

Irish trained horses have won 3 of the last 6.

You could also say that English trained have won 3 of the last 6 + the 9 years before that!

Charlie George · 21-02-2020 6:54pm

Croll wrote: »

How could you lay tiger roll

Too short at evens, worth a lay me thinks.

Outlaw Pete · 07-03-2020 7:25pm

Best: A Plus Tard.
Worst: Paisley Park.

longshotvalue · 07-03-2020 8:55pm

Best Discrorama 33/1 a few times .ðŸ€žðŸ½..
Worst apples jade champion, and mares .

Gavin "shels" · 10-03-2020 3:18pm

Gavin shels wrote: »

Best: Glenloe (Kim Muir)

Worst: Notebook (Arkle)

Worst bet.... :cool: pity I was on Fakir!

Slattsy · 10-03-2020 3:29pm

Slattsy wrote: »

Best: Champagne Classic

Worst: Shishkin

Got both these spot on. Might start a tipping service on the back of this success.

Tbf Shiskin was 5/2 at the time. May not have put up otherwise.

Croll · 10-03-2020 3:29pm

Slattsy wrote: »

Got both these spot on. My start a tipping service on the back of this success. Tbf Shiskin was 5/2 at the time. May not have put up otherwise.

:D:D

akelly02 · 10-03-2020 4:27pm

Outlaw Pete wrote: »

Best: A Plus Tard.
Worst: Paisley Park.

Paisley park worst bet how?

Croll · 11-03-2020 3:22pm

RivetingRoger wrote: »

Best - Abadacadabras while its 11/2
Worst - Champ

piplip87 · 11-03-2020 4:10pm

Worst Everything I've done so far

Best: The Machine and Percy Double.

SAM SO NITE · 11-03-2020 5:54pm

stroking horses all year.

Slattsy · 11-03-2020 9:34pm

SAM SO NITE wrote: »

stroking horses all year.

Whatever you're into kid. Get help though.

jay1988 · 11-03-2020 9:36pm

Slattsy wrote: »

Whatever you're into kid. Get help though.

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Cheltenham Best & Worst Bet

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