Cheltenham Best & Worst Bet

longshotvalue

Best Aramon County
Worst Apples Champion

jj mac

lemush wrote: »

Not comparable. Annie Power had never even ran over 3m, Benie had won a grade 1 over 3m beating a French superstar in the process. Three miles holds no fear for them with Benie.

Agree that 3 miles holds no fears but paisley park might persuade them to go mares where honeysuckle is probably more beatable. I just think they will go easier option but a lot will probably depend on the ground too. If benie didcgo stayers I would definitely back her though.

Gavin "shels"

IAMAMORON wrote: »

I presume " worst " means your lay of the festival , yes ?

Could be, or worse value...

Tommy Pickle

Best bet - Itchy Feet in the Marsh Novice Chase 6/1

Worst favorite - Carefully Selected National Hunt Chase

supremenovice

Best - Monalee (Gold Cup)
Worst - Defie des Seuil (Champion Chase)

stretchaq

supremenovice wrote: »

Best - Monalee (Gold Cup)
Worst - Defie des Seuil (Champion Chase)

Two big calls, I tought Monalee would have being interesting in Ryanair but has no entry

spuddiesal

Best - Ard Abhainn Martin Pipe
Worst - Fakir D’

spuddiesal

Best - Ard Abhainn Martin Pipe
Worst - Fakir D’

Tommy Pickle

stretchaq wrote: »

Two big calls, I tought Monalee would have being interesting in Ryanair but has no entry

Think he wants 3M at Cheltenham, 2nd in a Bartlett, 2nd in a RSA, 4th in the Ryanair last year. Very decent festival record, I couldn't personally have him in a GC but who knows, maybe the longer trip will do the trick

stretchaq

Tommy Pickle wrote: »

Think he wants 3M at Cheltenham, 2nd in a Bartlett, 2nd in a RSA, 4th in the Ryanair last year. Very decent festival record, maybe the longer trip will do the trick

Good logic wouldn’t try put you off gold cup is very open and he was very close to delta work in lep

Tommy Pickle

stretchaq wrote: »

Good logic wouldn’t try put you off gold cup is very open and he was very close to delta work in lep

Yeah could be the forgotten horse, a head Behind Dalta work last time they met and hes 4 times the price 25/1. Could be a good call from Supremenovice, you have me thinking now

HarshOstrich

Surprised a few people have put up notebook as worst bet, he would be one of my stronger fancies, to my eye he only does enough and is improving all the time, it isn't a vintage renewel either.

BoldReason

I've no real strong fancy but jesus have no idea how in the name of God Ilikethewayyourthinking is a 5/1 shot in any race? He will go off 8/1+

Kauto

Tommy Pickle wrote: »

Think he wants 3M at Cheltenham, 2nd in a Bartlett, 2nd in a RSA, 4th in the Ryanair last year. Very decent festival record, I couldn't personally have him in a GC but who knows, maybe the longer trip will do the trick

He wont be getting 3M at Cheltenhan. It is 3M 2 1/2F. He got an easy lead last time and still couldn't win. Has little chance of staying the trip!

lemush

If Monalee placed in a gold cup I'd be amazed never mind win it.

Tommy Pickle

Kauto wrote: »

He wont be getting 3M at Cheltenhan. It is 3M 2 1/2F. He got an easy lead last time and still couldn't win. Has little chance of staying the trip!

I know its 3M 2 thats why I said maybe the longer trip will do the trick, we've never seen him over that trip. Look if Lord Windermere won a Gold Cup, id never rule any horse out

By the way, hes not my selection for the race I backed the winner last year and I think Al Boum Photo will win again. I'm merely pointing out how you can make a case for him at a huge price with form that ties in with a lot of the front running Irish horses, at 25/1 it would have to represent better value than the likes of Deltawork @6/1 or even Presenting Percy at around 9/1.

Croll

BoldReason wrote: »

I've no real strong fancy but jesus have no idea how in the name of God Ilikethewayyourthinking is a 5/1 shot in any race? He will go off 8/1+

I agree 5s isn’t much value but don’t think he will go off much if any higher, clear as day hes been plotted for this race not having run too hard his last 2 races but staying on well. Already has his English mark too unlike most others in the pipe so hes definitely worthy of being fav at the moment

Slattsy

Croll wrote: »

I agree 5s isn’t much value but don’t think he will go off much if any higher, clear as day hes been plotted for this race not having run too hard his last 2 races but staying on well. Already has his English mark too unlike most others in the pipe so hes definitely worthy of being fav at the moment

Its a horse that if you got on at much bigger prices you'd be laughing. He's the one that got away from me this year to be honest, missed those tasty prices.

Could still go off 7/2 or so.

IAMAMORON

lemush wrote: »

If Monalee placed in a gold cup I'd be amazed never mind win it.

Only an 8 year old, very unlucky not to win at Christmas(lost an iron on the run in), has about 6 inches to find with Delta work who could well go off favourite for the race. Rachel Blackmore and Henry De Bromhead and it would be a dream for the owners and connections.

I would not be shocked at all.

Croll

Slattsy wrote: »

Its a horse that if you got on at much bigger prices you'd be laughing. He's the one that got away from me this year to be honest, missed those tasty prices.

Could still go off 7/2 or so.

Yeah certainly could with Cromwell and JP involved, got 14s myself. Are you on glenloe?

hugh janus

BoldReason wrote: »

I've no real strong fancy but jesus have no idea how in the name of God Ilikethewayyourthinking is a 5/1 shot in any race? He will go off 8/1+

Jockey was very easy on Ilikethewayyourthinking at Leopardstown but not as easy as Keith Donoghue was on Ben Dundee.I missed the price on him too.

IAMAMORON

I don't know who wins the Albert Bartlett 3m novice hurdle. But I think if you wait until the final declarations you will definitely be in a position to find a big priced winner. The favs have an awful record in the race. Check out the prices of the winners over the last few years. Huge for a grade 1.

Previous Years
2019 Minella Indo 6 11-5 Rachael Blackmore 50/1 (Henry De Bromhead)
2018 Kilbricken Storm 7 11-5 Harry Cobden 33/1 (C L Tizzard)
2017 Penhill 6 11-5 P Townend 16/1 (W P Mullins)
2016 Unowhatimeanharry 8 11-5 N D Fehily 11/1 (H Fry)
2015 Martello Tower 7 11-7 A P Heskin 14/1 (Ms Margaret Mullins)
2014 Very Wood 5 11-7 P Carberry 33/1 (Noel Meade)
2013 At Fishers Cross 6 11-7 A P McCoy 11/8Fav (Miss Rebecca Curtis)
2012 Brindisi Breeze 6 11-7 Campell Gillies 7/1 (Miss L Russell)
2011 Bobs Worth 6 11-7 B J Geraghty 15/8Fav (Nicky Henderson)
2010 Berties Dream 7 11-7 A E Lynch 33/1 (Paul John Gilligan)
2009 Weapon's Amnesty 6 11-7 D N Russell 8/1 (C Byrnes)
2008 Nenuphar Collonges 7 11-7 R Thornton 9-1 (Alan King)
2007 Wichita Lineman 6 11-7 A P McCoy 11/8Fav (Jonjo O'Neill)
2006 Black Jack Ketchum 7 11-7 A P McCoy 1/1Fav (Jonjo O'Neill)
2005 Moulin Riche 5 11-7 R Thornton 9/1 (F Doumen)

Only 4 favs in the last 15 years. All of the winners had shown a degree of form during the year, they simply got overlooked in the betting.

It also has not produced a decent chaser since Bobs Worth, remarkable given the profile of the race. I will be dissecting the paper on the morning of the race looking for a lightly enough raced improver at a big price.

supremenovice

Kauto wrote: »

He wont be getting 3M at Cheltenhan. It is 3M 2 1/2F. He got an easy lead last time and still couldn't win. Has little chance of staying the trip!

I like the way Monalee has been minded this year by De Bromhead, who is arguably trainer of the season in my opinion. Not to mention the fact that the sport could have a new star on its hands if Blackmore wins the Gold Cup (although she certainly isnt media friendly like, say, Dettori is). His journey to the GC isnt too dissimilar to Don Cossack when you look into it.
RE Defi - I just dont think the form with 12yo Un de Sceaux is very good compared with Altior and Chacun, or even dark horse Cilaos Emery. Mullins will know exactly where he stands. Dynamite Dollars caught my eye big time at Newbury last week.

IAMAMORON

The worst value of the festival has to be the Queen Mother. The bookies are high fiving already, they have booked their annual bonus on it.

3 brilliant chasers at the top of the market and no one truly knows how the race will pan out. The fact remains that if one of them wins it, the rest of the punters are throwing their ticket on the ground, money gone.

The general price of the 3 is 5/2 or 2/1, brutal shight altogether.

I will be watching this one, (I reckon Defi de Sueil wins it btw, but he can win all day at 2 to fooooking 1, no thanks.)

https://www.oddschecker.com/cheltenham-festival/champion-chase/winner

realdanbreen

Gavin shels wrote: »

Best: Glenloe (Kim Muir)

Worst: Notebook (Arkle)

My fear for Glenloe would be irish horses don't have a great record in the Kim Muir

Margate

realdanbreen wrote: »

My fear for Glenloe would be irish horses don't have a great record in the Kim Muir

such an irrelevant stat

madmoose

realdanbreen wrote: »

My fear for Glenloe would be irish horses don't have a great record in the Kim Muir

Any Second Now last year won it and Cause of Causes won it not so long ago

yaboya1

realdanbreen wrote: »

My fear for Glenloe would be irish horses don't have a great record in the Kim Muir

Irish trained horses have won 3 of the last 6.

BumperD

Credit where credit due the lad on upping the Ante put up ilikethewayyourthinking to win any race at 25/1 couple months back

NaiveMelodies

BumperD wrote: »

Credit where credit due the lad on upping the Ante put up ilikethewayyourthinking to win any race at 25/1 couple months back

Great shout but how much is anyone getting on that type of special bet?