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01-11-2019, 09:28   #1
Rebelbrowser
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10th Annual White Christmas Thread!

Its that day again, 1 November, when, with Halloween over us, thoughts turn to the next big event on the horizon - yup Christmas is coming....

This particular thread turns 10 today - if you don't believe me the first from 2010 is still available at - https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/show...php?p=68686802 but in fact I found White Christmas threads dating back to 2004 (when there was a White Christmas for many!) at https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/show....php?p=2209623 . Some familiar names posted in that thread too I note!

As usual this thread is solely concerned with the weather over the Christmas period, primarily 24 & 25 December and, in particular, is concerned with whether it might snow on Christmas day itself.

The last white Christmas (as in lying snow) for most of us was 2010 of course. However I don't think there was any Christmas day snowfall that year. The last actual technically correct white Christmas (1cm of falling snow I think?) for most of us was 2004. That's 15 years ago so statistically we are way overdue a white one this year (Met.ie say that historically Dublin airport gets a technically correct white Christmas every 5.9 years).

The CFS (a longe range weather model of doubtful accuracy) is probably the best source at this stage for making any sort of guess as to what weather we might have on the big day. And the good news is that over the last 10 days or so the CFS (which updates daily but using data from the previous day I believe) has been showing plenty of cold and snow around over Christmas with several iterations showing snow falling on the big day itself.

However, and unfortunately, that has all changed and at present the CFS shows the following:-



Unfortunately, for the uninitiated, that's a horrible day with heavy rain, strong winds and mildish temps. Yuk.

As most of you will know the big UK weather sites run their own White Christmas pages, some of which have been running since September!

The excellent www.theweatheroutlook.com have their 8th update posted this morning which unfortunately follows the pattern of today's CFS and states:-

"Christmas weather forecast

TheWeatherOutlook says is based on computer models and the weather patterns during the autumn.

The Computer says uses raw computer model data. Daily updates have now started.

TheWeatherOutlook says - Update 8: No change to the percentage chance.

The eighth update makes no change to the percentage chance of snow in the north and south.

The latest considerations are:

Seasonal forecast model updates suggesting a mild and Atlantic dominated winter is favoured.

October weather patterns. Unsettled conditions have continued.

Recent output from seasonal computer models has generally been pointing towards a milder than average winter. Although seasonal models display a low skill level for the UK they are taken into account.

Chance of snow on Christmas Day

North of Yorkshire / Lancashire: 14%

South of Yorkshire / Lancashire: 8%

Updates 1: 01/09/2019, 2: 08/09, 3: 15/09, 4: 22/09, 5: 29/09, 6: 06/10, 7: 13/10, 8: 20/10

The Computer says
It's expected to be too mild for snow in the south
It's expected to be too mild for snow in Wales
Cold conditions in the Midlands are expected, marginal for rain or snow.
Cold conditions in the north are expected, marginal for rain or snow.
Cold conditions in Scotland are expected, marginal for rain or snow.
It's expected to be too mild for snow in Northern Ireland
It's expected to be too mild for snow in the Republic of Ireland
It's expected to be too mild for snow in the Netherlands

Forecast issued 01/11/2019 06:53:43"


Meanwhile Netweather's famous Santa Shaker Christmas Forecast tool gives the Republic of Ireland an encouraging "zero per cent" change of snow on the big day this year!

Ah well, chin up and all of that. Happily, there are still 53.5 days (or over 1300 hours) still to go so there are many, many model runs to go between now and then to post here - at least some of which will undoubtedly hold out the promise of white gold.

Until then, here's a pic courtesy of the journal.ie of the last big white Christmas in 2004...

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08-11-2019, 08:11   #2
bazlers
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Always liked this thread.
I'm predicting I will wake up to a foot of snow christmas morning which will quickly accumulate to a foot and a half as we sit for christmas dinner. (Yes Ireland)
The south west not doing quiet as well. They will just have to settle for a foot of snow.
Word of warning though I have been wrong once before
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08-11-2019, 08:22   #3
Graces7
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"If wishes were horses, beggars would ride.."

If wishes were snowfall, some folk would have us buried to the rooftops

Still seeking to build my last snowman
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08-11-2019, 08:25   #4
Call me Al
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"If wishes were horses, beggars would ride.."

If wishes were snowfall, some folk would have us buried to the rooftops

Still seeking to build my last snowman
Ah graces7, the day we see the sea freezing over you might have a chance :-)
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08-11-2019, 10:31   #5
Graces7
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Ah graces7, the day we see the sea freezing over you might have a chance :-)
It did at Killybegs in 2010...Literally .. all I need is enough for a decent SNOWMAN! lol
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08-11-2019, 11:51   #6
Billcarson
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I would like for the weather this Xmas to feel at least a bit seasonal. Most xmases since 2010 have often felt unseasonal. Last dec for example was such a crap month ,day after day of mild cloudy dull nothingness. Didn't feel seasonal at all.
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08-11-2019, 12:06   #7
KingdomRushed
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Weirdly, I find mild christmas weather to be perfectly seasonal. I guess in my thirty odd years I have experienced more mild christmas days than cold, so a mild christmas day feels apt and perfectly christmassy! I think I firmly recall a maximum of 3 christmas days with snow on the ground. In each case I believe a melt was already underway in the morning.
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08-11-2019, 13:33   #8
pauldry
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Even a potent Northerly on Christmas eve evening would do.

Hell even a shower of hail and some fog to follow Xmas morning.
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08-11-2019, 14:13   #9
esposito
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Even a potent Northerly on Christmas eve evening would do.

Hell even a shower of hail and some fog to follow Xmas morning.
I’d settle for a frosty Christmas Eve and morning, Cold and dry Christmas Day with plenty of sunshine, a high of 5°C followed by a frosty night. And rinse and repeat for St Stephens day.

Last edited by esposito; 08-11-2019 at 14:28.
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08-11-2019, 15:22   #10
Graces7
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Even a potent Northerly on Christmas eve evening would do.

Hell even a shower of hail and some fog to follow Xmas morning.
Ah now come on! Not a kind thought when folk need to be out to families... Ah maybe you are in jest! Sorry! Just the thought of it gave me fear.

Need sweet mild weather or a small sprinkling of snow!
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08-11-2019, 15:23   #11
Graces7
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I’d settle for a frosty Christmas Eve and morning, Cold and dry Christmas Day with plenty of sunshine, a high of 5°C followed by a frosty night. And rinse and repeat for St Stephens day.
Ah that is better! Thank you
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08-11-2019, 21:20   #12
nacho libre
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"

If wishes were snowfall, some folk would have us buried to the rooftops

:
Guilty

Well, to be honest i'd settle for one or two prolonged heavy snow showers on Christmas Eve from 10 till midnight, so there was a good covering on the ground. I would go to bed happy then.
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08-11-2019, 21:42   #13
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A few inches of snow will make the place Christmassy.
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09-11-2019, 01:33   #14
Graces7
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A few inches of snow will make the place Christmassy.
So you will all be happy helping us old ones get to Mass and to families! Christmas is in the heart as well... Means a lot to folk #to get out that day!
Not that our wishes count for anything

Just a pretty inch? Then after St stephens. let it rip!
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10-11-2019, 05:56   #15
Graces7
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I have a confession to make!

Something I had forgotten ( old age..) came ….. drifting into my memory...

The second winter I was in Ireland, high on a Leitrim mountain, I was getting ready to drive down to Midnight Mass on Christmas Eve..

At the door when slowly snow started to fall... gently, silently... Sheer magic. There was no way I could get down safely. or back up again

So I stayed home in the peace and enchantment of falling Christmas snow,,, put the outside light on as the white flakes fell

If it snows it snows!
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