[M.T. Cranium]

Sunday, 24 November, 2019

Forecasts for Ireland


TRENDS for the week of 24 to 30 Nov 2019

-- Temperatures will average within a degree of normal values.
-- Rainfall will also likely finish close to normal for the week.
-- Sunshine could do a bit better than average especially in the west.


FORECASTS


TODAY ... Some brighter intervals once the fog and mist clears, although that may take some time in Leinster and Ulster. Rain will arrive in west Munster but will make rather slow progress further east, amounts not expected to be heavy today. Highs 8 to 10 C.

TONIGHT ... Overcast with some light rain at times, 5 to 10 mm amounts likely, lows 4 to 7 C.

MONDAY ... Overcast with showers, then some partial clearing by afternoon in western counties. Highs 8 to 10 C.

TUESDAY ... Rain will become heavier and spread further north, with strong east winds developing for the east coast, turning more to strong northerly winds in some western counties. About 20 mm of rain possible, lows near 4 C and highs near 9 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Variable cloud, showers, moderate westerly winds. Lows near 2 C and highs near 8 C.

THURSDAY ... Partly cloudy, isolated showers, colder. Lows -1 to +2 C and highs 5 to 8 C.

OUTLOOK ... Guidance has split somewhat, colder air is coming towards Ireland and may last for several days but it's somewhat questionable how deep the cold will become at least in the south which remains close to a weak but still active storm track that could bring along further light rain or sleety mixtures around next weekend. Further north there's more chance of it staying cold and dry for a while. Eventually that cold spell will yield to milder weather for several days in the first week of December, after which it looks rather variable with a few more outbreaks of colder air at intervals of three or four days and brief milder turns between them.

My local weather on Saturday turned to light snow which accumulated to 3 cms and made it look quite wintry although the temperature remains in the same range about 2 to 4 C.

[M.T. Cranium]

Monday, 25 November, 2019

Forecasts for Ireland


TRENDS for the week of 25 Nov to 1st Dec 2019

-- Temperatures will average between normal values and 1.0 deg below normal, colder to the north.
-- Rainfall will average 75 to 100 per cent of normal values, although possibly closer to 50 in the north.
-- Sunshine will be infrequent for the first half of the weekly interval and relatively generous after that, the balance will be 25% above normal.


FORECASTS

TODAY will have scattered showers but no heavy accumulations are expected with 2 to 7 mm on average, heavier amounts towards the north of Connacht and west Ulster. Some brighter intervals are likely to develop across the south with highs reaching 11 C.

TONIGHT will become overcast with outbreaks of rain developing in parts of west Munster. Lows 2 to 6 C.

TUESDAY the remnants of Tropical Storm Sebastien will arrive in west Munster, spreading moderate rain across much of the country in several bands, 15 to 25 mm likely. Some locally strong southeast winds gusting to 100 km/hr are possible but the circulation is quite small in scale and these might only affect various parts of the south coast for several hours at a time. More widespread moderate southeast winds of 50 to 80 km/hr are expected over most regions. Highs 8 to 11 C (12 to 14 C possible in southwest).

WEDNESDAY by early morning the meandering remnant low will be passing the southeast coast en route to southern England and rain will begin to taper off to showers, then further intervals of cloud and partly cloudy skies with passing showers for the daytime with moderate westerly winds at times. Lows near 4 C and highs near 9 C.

THURSDAY will also be partly cloudy with a few showers and winds turning gradually to the northwest, lows near 3 C and highs near 8 C.

FRIDAY will become sunny and colder in most areas, with a few weak bands of mixed showers forming in a brisk northerly flow. Lows near -1 C and highs around 6 C.

SATURDAY the south coast may be brushed by a disturbance tracking east off the coast, with some sleety light rain possible and a coating of snow on some hills inland. The rest of the country will likely escape this precipitation and remain cold and bright if rather cloudy from higher cloud layers extending northwards. This will trend to sunny skies in parts of the north. Lows -2 to +2 C and highs near 6 C.

SUNDAY the cold and dry weather will continue and may turn a few degrees colder especially over the inland north, with lows of -4 to -1 C and highs of 4 to 7 C expected.

By Monday of the following week (2 Dec) milder air will be pushing in from the west with a band of light rain or drizzle moving through northern counties possibly preceded by sleet or wet snow. It will then turn considerably milder for several days with highs above 10 C for much of the week. Once that milder sector has come and gone, a variable rather windy and unsettled pattern will follow with frequent wet intervals, occasional strong wind gusts and temperatures oscillating either side of normal values (which by then are near 8 C daytime and near 2 C at night).

My local weather on Sunday was partly sunny despite occasional mist, and cold with the Saturday snow not melting much, and highs close to the freezing mark.

[M.T. Cranium]

Tuesday, 26 November, 2019

Forecasts for Ireland


TRENDS for the week of 26 Nov to 2 Dec 2019

-- Temperatures will average near normal in the south to 1.0 deg below normal in the north.
-- Rainfall will average near normal in the south, to only 25 per cent of normal in the north.
-- Sunshine will average about 25% above normal but that will mostly happen between Friday and Sunday.

FORECASTS

TODAY will see bands of moderate rainfall through south-central counties spreading some distance further north, with much less rain expected in the far north. The south coast will get into a partly cloudy, showery regime by later this morning and with some breaks in the overcast temperatures could reach 12 C there, otherwise highs 9 to 11 C. Rainfalls of about 20-30 mm are possible, heaviest amounts will come later today in south Wexford but there could be pockets of locally heavy rainfall anywhere in the southern half of the country as the remnants of TS Sebastien circle around before the system drifts off to the east tonight. Winds southeast to east 50 to 80 km/hr with the chance of some isolated and brief gusty intervals to about 100 km/hr, most likely in parts of the south.

TONIGHT will bring further outbreaks of light rain across parts of the south and scattered showers further north, with the winds diminishing and turning northerly for a time at 30 to 50 km/hr. Lows 4 to 7 C.

WEDNESDAY will be cloudy with a few breaks and there will be a few showers, only 3 to 7 mm expected, and moderate northwest winds at times, highs 8 to 10 C.

THURSDAY will also be partly to mostly cloudy with a few showers, lows near 2 C and highs 7 to 9 C.

FRIDAY will become more sunny than cloudy in most areas, and a bit colder with morning lows -1 to +2 C and highs 6 to 8 C.

SATURDAY will bring light rain to some areas near the south coast and a sleety mix of rain and snow over hills in the south. Further north it will be dry with high cloud layers from the southern disturbance, trending to sunny skies in parts of Ulster. Lows -2 to +2 C and highs about 5 C in most areas.

SUNDAY will be sunny and quite cold with sharp morning frosts, lows -5 to -2 C and afternoon highs near 5 C.

MONDAY will bring variable cloud and the chance of some brief drizzle or light rain as warm fronts pass through the north, otherwise dry and turning considerably milder with afternoon temperatures reaching 10 or 11 C.

NEXT WEEK will then continue rather mild with highs 10 to 13 C, nights will be mostly frost free and there may be some rain in the mix by about Thursday. It will be breezy at times becoming windy by Thursday and Friday. Colder for a time around the end of next week into the weekend of the 7th-8th December, before a more variable regime sets in towards mid-December.

My local weather on Monday was partly to mostly cloudy but dry with highs around 2 C.

[M.T. Cranium]

Wednesday, 27 November, 2019

Forecasts for Ireland


TRENDS for the week of 27 Nov to 3 Dec 2019

-- Temperatures will average near normal in the south to 1.0 deg below normal in the north. The interval will end with milder temperatures after turning quite cold this weekend.
-- Rainfall will average about 50% of normal in the south, to only 25 per cent of normal in the north.
-- Sunshine will average about 25% to 50% above normal but that will be concentrated on the weekend, however it looks like at least normal amounts of sunshine even on the cloudier days before and after that too.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be cloudy with a few breaks more frequent in central counties, and there will be a few showers, but amounts of only 2 to 5 mm expected, with moderate northwest winds at times, highs 8 to 10 C.

TONIGHT will remain partly to mostly cloudy with a few light showers, and lows around 2 C.

THURSDAY will also be partly to mostly cloudy with a few showers, lows near 2 C and highs 7 to 9 C. Winds will continue to be rather light (for November especially) from a northwest direction although somewhat variable, and it will begin to turn colder late in the day.

FRIDAY will become more sunny than cloudy in most areas, and a bit colder with morning lows -3 to +2 C and highs 6 to 8 C.

SATURDAY will bring light rain to some areas near the south coast and a sleety mix of rain and snow over hills in south coastal counties. Further north it will be dry with high cloud layers from the southern disturbance, trending to sunny skies in parts of Ulster. Lows -4 to +3 C (the colder values inland north and higher values near south coast) and highs about 5 C in most areas.

SUNDAY will be sunny and quite cold with sharp morning frosts, lows -5 to -2 C and afternoon highs near 5 C.

MONDAY will bring variable cloud and the chance of some brief drizzle or light rain as warm fronts pass through the north, otherwise dry and turning considerably milder with rising temperatures through the night followed by afternoon temperatures reaching 10 or 11 C.

TUESDAY will also be breezy and mild with highs 10 to 13 C.

NEXT WEEK will then continue rather mild with highs 10 to 13 C, nights will be mostly frost free and there may be some rain in the mix by about Thursday. It will be breezy at times becoming windy by Thursday and Friday. It now appears just slightly cooler for a time around the end of next week into the weekend of the 7th-8th December, before a more variable regime sets in towards mid-December.

My local weather on Tuesday was overcast with mist patches on nearby hills and a high of about 3 C. There is a bit of ice and snow on the ground although more ice than snow at this point. Local hills are snow covered but the ski resorts are hoping for much more than we've had so far. Heavy snow did fall to the east of here across the northern plains states and is now heading east from there towards the inland portions of New York state and New England, eastern Ontario and southern Quebec.

I am going to post monthly outlooks (for Ireland) around the 28th of each month from now on. For December, I am predicting temperatures 1.5 to 2.5 degrees above normal, rainfall near normal to 25% above normal, and occasionally stormy with strong winds especially towards end of the month. Just an educated guess but I think it is more likely to be a windy holiday period than a white Christmas scenario but perhaps some northern hills will see some snow out of that kind of pattern.

[M.T. Cranium]

Thursday, 28 November, 2019

Forecasts for Ireland


TRENDS for the week of 28 Nov to 4 Dec 2019

-- Temperatures will average slightly below normal, but the main trend will be colder Friday to Sunday and milder again from Monday onward.
-- Rainfall will average very much below average, some places may be almost entirely dry, few will get to 10% of normal during this period.
-- Sunshine will average a little more than normal, to as much as twice normal values in some parts.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be a rather inactive weather day with mostly cloudy skies and a few breaks of sunshine, perhaps interrupted in some parts of the east by a weak area of showery rain moving south from Ulster. Amounts of 1-3 mm are possible with that, and isolated brief showers could happen elsewhere, but it will be generally dry with light northerly winds. Highs 8 to 11 C, and turning a bit colder by afternoon from north to south.

TONIGHT will be partly cloudy and colder with lows -2 to +2 C. There could be patchy frost by morning.

FRIDAY will be partly cloudy to sunny, with the chance of sunshine greater towards the west and north. It should remain dry for most places. Highs about 7 C.

SATURDAY ... There will be some early morning sleety light rain near the south coast and that could change over to wet snow on hills in Waterford, Cork and south Kerry. Not much accumulation is expected though. Cloud from that offshore low will spread back further north for most of the morning then will retreat back to the south later, allowing some filtered sunshine in rather cold but not overly windy conditions, although some moderate easterly gusts may accompany the rain along the south coast. Morning lows will vary from about -3 C inland north to +3 C on the south coast, and highs throughout the country will be in the range of 5 to 8 C.

SUNDAY will be a cold but pleasant day with light winds, a sharp frost and lows near -4 C giving way to temperatures around 5 or 6 C by mid-day under partly sunny skies.

MONDAY may become rather cloudy as warm fronts sweep through from the west. Frost could still occur in some parts of the inland south but the risk diminishes further north as it will become breezy and cloudy there. Temperatures are likely to rise after midnight in most places from lows of about -2 C to readings closer to 5 C then it will continue to turn milder reaching 11 or 12 C by late in the day. Some light rain or drizzle could briefly reach the ground from a rather dry air mass as the fronts pass.

TUESDAY looks partly cloudy and mild for most, perhaps a cold and frosty start to the day in a few inland southern valleys though, and that fog could be a bit slow to clear due to temperature inversions and light winds. But for most, lows about 2 to 5 C and highs 10 to 13 C.

The OUTLOOK is for mild weather to continue with a greater chance of light rain later in the week, nothing very heavy is expected in moderate westerly winds and temperatures near 10 C. Nights will become milder even in the south as the wind gradient increases there. The longer term charts are hinting at a colder outbreak mid-month, but quite often these get downgraded into brief dry intervals between frontal systems closer to the time. We don't have reliable guidance for the Christmas period yet but my research suggests it could become a rather active pattern with the chance of strong winds entering the forecast but that's about four weeks away so plenty of weather to come and go before that.

My local weather turned quite windy and cold as a major storm system moved past us well to our south, bringing snow to areas of Oregon and Idaho even into Utah on Wednesday; our skies were overcast with a dim patch of brightness where the Sun was trying to break through, and while it stayed dry, we could see that it was snowing lightly on higher mountain peaks in the vicinity. Easterly winds were quite strong at times and it was about -2 C feeling more like -10 C. Today is American Thanksgiving but in Canada we celebrate that in mid-October and it's just a regular work day here. The snowstorm crossing the inland northeast is going to pull in colder air and create strong wind gusts in New York City which may interfere with the annual parade they have with the large balloons etc. At least that may make it more entertaining.

[M.T. Cranium]

Friday, 29 November, 2019

Forecasts for Ireland


TRENDS for the week of 29 Nov to 5 Dec 2019

-- Temperatures will average near normal or slightly above in the north and west but may come in 1 to 2 deg below normal in the south and east where colder air this weekend may linger through parts of Monday and even Tuesday while other regions warm up faster.
-- Rainfall will average no more than 25 per cent of normal and some places may remain almost dry.
-- Sunshine will average 25 to 50 per cent above normal, higher values likely in the inland north and central counties.

FORECASTS

TODAY will become sunny but cool in the north, with cloudy skies occasionally breaking to partly cloudy across the south, where some isolated showers are possible, in particular along the Wicklow coast from weak streamer bands forming over the Irish Sea. These showers could bring some mixed forms of precipitation on higher parts of east-facing slopes. Highs of 5 to 8 C from north to south.

TONIGHT will see clear and cold conditions in the north with lows of -3 C and patchy freezing fog. The south will remain more overcast with lows 2 to 4 C.

SATURDAY will continue sunny in the north and cloudy in the south where it could rain (1-3 mm expected) with sleet or snow accumulations on a few hills inland from the south coast. Central regions from west to east will be under the cloud also but with some brighter intervals, and it should remain dry for all but the south coastal districts. Highs around 5 or 6 C.

SUNDAY will bring more widespread clearing of skies but there could be some lingering fog in valleys after a cold start, with morning lows of about -5 C possible inland, to -2 C on coastal fringes. The day will remain quite cold with light winds; some places may not warm up much past the freezing point while coastal areas could reach 5 or 6 C.

MONDAY and TUESDAY, the cold air is going to be somewhat reluctant to leave the inland southeast as light winds and a temperature inversion make full mixing of the air difficult. Much milder air will be seeping into the north and west, somewhat more readily in coastal areas and in between there will be a slight rise in temperatures. Skies will remain partly cloudy to overcast in many areas with some trapped low level cloud and fog in the inland southeast. With that mixture, expect temperatures as mild as 8 to 11 C in the north and west, but possibly much lower in the inland southeast, -3 to +4 C may be the range there. In between, readings around 5 to 8 C are likely in parts of the midlands and north Leinster, east Ulster. There may be variations over short distances as pockets of colder air remain unmoved. It should remain dry except for some drizzle near the north coast at times.

By WEDNESDAY and THURSDAY, stronger westerly winds will complete the transition to milder air in most regions and temperatures will respond by moving closer to 10 C in all regions. There may be some light rain in parts of the north.

The OUTLOOK is for this milder spell to continue into next weekend (7 and 8 Dec) with stronger winds at times, gusting over 80 km/hr, and a few intervals of rain, with temperatures near 11 or 12 C, then much colder air will push in by about Monday 9th as winds turn northerly for a time. Most of the guidance towards mid-December goes back to a cool, dry theme similar to this coming few days.

My local weather on Thursday turned sunny and it was quite cold especially in shaded areas which never got much above -5 C. It was closer to +3 C in the Columbia valley where the ground is still snow-free.

[M.T. Cranium]

Saturday, 30 November, 2019

Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS for the week of 30 Nov to 6 Dec 2019

-- Temperatures will average near normal except for a few parts of the southeast which may average 2-3 deg below normal as cold temperatures in all areas at start of the interval persist longer there; most other places will eventually become 2-3 deg above normal.
-- Rainfall will average 25 to 50 per cent of normal, a little in the south today, then sporadic amounts from mid-week in other areas.
-- Sunshine will probably average a bit above normal but cloud will be persistent in some places so the results will be rather variable.

FORECASTS

TODAY will start out rather cloudy except in parts of Ulster where the sun will be able to break through patchy cloud at times. Some light rain will continue over the southwest with isolated drizzly patches in the southeast. As the low responsible is a long way south and pulling away towards Spain, the cloud will begin to break up slowly in central regions and the rain will largely come to an end over the south. Moderate east winds caused by the distant disturbance will also moderate later but it won't be very windy at all in most of the inland central and northern counties. Highs near 5 C in the north to 10 C in the south.

TONIGHT will see clearing but with some remnant patchy cloud and then isolated patches of fog in valleys, with a widespread frost likely, and lows near -3 C to perhaps -5 C in a few spots.

SUNDAY will become partly to mostly sunny but cold, although there could be some areas of rather persistent low cloud due to the fog not totally dispersing in some valleys. Highs 4 to 7 C. Another rather cold night will follow with lows -2 to -5 C by Monday morning, except a bit milder near Atlantic coasts.

MONDAY milder air will brush up against the west coast and will rather lethargically attempt to push further inland. The colder air is likely to hang on in most of the inland south and east. Some coastal locations will get a slight warming too. Temperatures will be rising to 8-10 C near the west coast, 4-7 C central and east coast, and 2-5 C inland southeast. Skies are likely to be partly cloudy to overcast at times.

TUESDAY will see the milder air making a bit more progress but with very slight wind gradients in the south it may be another day before all of the colder air is scoured out of low-lying areas. The results will be similar to Monday but perhaps several degrees warmer in some places in particular the central and inland northern counties which could benefit from a bit of a wind gradient developing there.

WEDNESDAY will complete the transition to milder air in a stronger southwest wind, and there will be outbreaks of rain across most areas, not expected to be very heavy (3-5 mm). Winds will increase to 50 or 60 km/hr and temperatures will be steady in the 8-11 C range.

THURSDAY will also be overcast and breezy with occasional rain, temperatures steady near 9 C.

FRIDAY may see more broken cloud as a slight change in air mass brings in a somewhat drier regime but temperatures will likely remain fairly similar, 7 to 9 C.

The WEEKEND of 7-8 Dec appears likely to become quite unsettled with rain at times on Saturday, rain and strong winds by Sunday, but staying mild until late Sunday night, with temperatures generally 8 to 11 C. Winds could exceed 110 km/hr by Sunday evening near the west coast, veering from southwest to northwest by Monday morning.

The OUTLOOK for the following week calls for colder weather. It will remain somewhat unsettled and there could be mixed falls of sleet or even snow as well as cold rain at times during this interval. Typical highs will be around 4 C.

My local weather on Friday remained clear and cold with a bit of moderation in the strong east winds as we get closer to the core of high pressure located over Alberta. Over that side of the Rockies it is below -15 C but we had a high close to -1 C here. Snow went well to our south, Salt Lake City Utah had 10 cms and the cold air has pushed almost as far south as northern Mexico. This storm is quickly crossing the plains states with 3-5 cm snowfalls in places and will redevelop over the inland northeastern states later tonight into Sunday, bringing a widespread light snowfall to New England and New York state, parts of PA and the mid-Atlantic states inland from the coastal cities.

[M.T. Cranium]

Sunday, 1 December, 2019

Forecasts for Ireland


TRENDS for the week of 1 to 7 Dec 2019

-- Temperatures will average near normal except for a few parts of the southeast which may average 2-3 deg below normal as cold temperatures in all areas at start of the interval persist longer there; most other places will eventually become 2-3 deg above normal.
-- Rainfall will average 25 to 50 per cent of normal, with most of that coming around Wednesday 4th.
-- Sunshine will probably average a bit above normal but cloud will be persistent in some places so the results will be rather variable.

FORECASTS

TODAY will become partly to mostly sunny but cold, although there could be some areas of rather persistent low cloud due to the fog not totally dispersing in some valleys. Highs 4 to 7 C. There are also a few very weak showers still present due to the easterly winds over the past day; these may drop small amounts of rain or soft hail in Leinster and east Ulster this morning. Most of that activity will dissipate by afternoon as skies become more generally clear.

TONIGHT will see clear intervals and frost with some fog patches, very cold with lows -2 to -5 C, except a bit milder near Atlantic coasts.

MONDAY milder air will brush up against the west coast and will rather lethargically attempt to push further inland. The colder air is likely to hang on in most of the inland south and east. Some coastal locations will get a slight warming too. Temperatures will be rising to 8-10 C near the west coast, 4-7 C central and east coast, and 2-5 C inland southeast. Skies are likely to be partly cloudy to overcast at times.

TUESDAY will see the milder air making a bit more progress but with very slight wind gradients in the south it may be another day before all of the colder air is scoured out of low-lying areas. The results will be similar to Monday but perhaps several degrees warmer in some places in particular the central and inland northern counties which could benefit from a bit of a wind gradient developing there.

WEDNESDAY will complete the transition to milder air in a stronger southwest wind, and there will be outbreaks of rain across most areas, not expected to be very heavy (3-5 mm). Winds will increase to 50 or 60 km/hr and temperatures will be steady in the 8-11 C range.

THURSDAY will also be overcast and breezy with occasional rain, temperatures steady near 9 C.

FRIDAY may see more broken cloud as a slight change in air mass brings in a somewhat drier regime but temperatures will likely remain fairly similar, 7 to 9 C.

The WEEKEND of 7-8 Dec appears likely to become quite unsettled with rain at times on Saturday, rain and strong winds by Sunday, but staying mild until late Sunday night, with temperatures generally 8 to 11 C. Winds could exceed 110 km/hr by Sunday evening near the west coast, veering from southwest to northwest by Monday morning.

MONDAY (9th Dec) is looking like quite a cold day with northerly winds and the risk of mixed wintry showers in northern and eastern counties, but that won't last too long before a slight warming trend sets in with lighter westerly winds by Tuesday. The rest of the week will remain somewhat unsettled and there could be mixed falls of sleet or even snow as well as cold rain at times during this interval. Typical highs will be around 4 C.

My local weather on Saturday was overcast but it was a patchy and rather high cloud deck that allowed a bit of sunshine at times, and the high was around 2 C. With light winds, it was fairly tolerable and probably better than anything that might include precipitation at this time of year. This was probably the driest November on record around here, certainly among the driest ten per cent anyway.

[M.T. Cranium]

Monday, 2 December 2019

Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS for the week of 2 to 8 December 2019

-- Temperatures will average slightly above normal in parts of the west and north, trending to near normal central and east coast, and below normal inland south and southeast (by 1-2 deg).
-- Rainfall will average near normal but most of that will occur around mid-week and again around Sunday. Most other days will be dry.
-- Sunshine will average near normal as there will be a lot of broken cloud layers during dry weather.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be partly cloudy to overcast with some persistent fog or mist over some valleys especially in the south and southeast. There it will also remain rather cold with highs of 4 to 7 C while further north and west it could reach 10 or even 12 degrees in some places.

TONIGHT will be partly cloudy with some dense fog in valleys, frosts returning to some parts of the inland southeast, lows -2 to +2 C, but milder elsewhere (3-6 C).

TUESDAY will continue similar to today with perhaps a slight rise in temperatures where the colder air is trapped in the southeast, highs closer to 7 C there, and again near 10 or 11 C further west and north.

WEDNESDAY will become quite windy with intervals of rain, 5 to 15 mm expected, heavier in the north and west. Winds southwest 60 to 90 km/hr will remove any lingering cold air and spread the 10-13 C milder air to all areas.

THURSDAY will continue windy with outbreaks of rain, temperatures steady near 10 C.

FRIDAY will become partly cloudy, breezy and a bit cooler with highs near 7 or 8 C in gusty west to northwest winds.

SATURDAY will bring increasing cloud and some showers of rain with moderate southwest winds, highs near 10 C.

SUNDAY will be windy with rain and temperatures steady 10 to 12 C.

MONDAY will become colder with strong west to northwest winds and passing showers, some wintry on higher terrain in the north. Highs near 6 or 7 C.

TUESDAY will then turn a bit milder again with rain and highs near 9 C.

The further outlook calls for this unsettled and at times windy pattern to continue.

My local weather brought a change to snow with 10 cms on the ground, and highs near -2 C.

[M.T. Cranium]

Tuesday, 3 December, 2019

Forecasts for Ireland


TRENDS for the week of 3 to 9 December 2019

-- Temperatures will average near normal values in many areas, with above normal readings likely for several days between Thursday and Sunday balanced by colder than average at either end of the interval. However, western counties may run somewhat above normal on balance and the southeast as much as 1.5 below normal due to the colder start there.
-- Rainfall will eventually top up to near normal amounts in the west and north and may reach 50% of normal in the south and east.
-- Sunshine will probably appear at least as frequently as normal for December which is only 1.5 to 2 hours a day. Some places may do better than that in the south and east.

FORECASTS

TODAY will see some lingering frost and fog in parts of Leinster and northeast Munster, with the best chance for sunshine in areas a bit further west where patchy mist will dissipate faster. The slow warming trend will continue with Atlantic counties generally around 10 or 11 C and from there eastward, a degree or two higher than Monday's values, so reaching about 5 to 7 C at least in the inland southeast. Winds will continue rather light but may pick up to moderate south-southwest where it has turned milder.

TONIGHT will see patchy mist and fog returning and it will continue somewhat cold in a few parts of the east, but milder air will make inroads and rain may follow onto the west coast. Lows -1 to +3 C east to about 5 to 8 C west.

WEDNESDAY will become breezy with increasing cloud east, overcast west with occasional rain, 5 to 15 mm likely there. Highs 8 to 11 C.

THURSDAY will see stronger winds from the southwest (60 to 90 km/hr) and outbreaks of heavier rain at times, 10 to 20 mm possible. Temperatures will be steady in the 9 to 13 C range.

FRIDAY will become partly cloudy, breezy and slightly cooler again with a few passing showers and highs near 8 C.

SATURDAY will see mostly cloudy skies and rain becoming heavier late in the day, another 10 to 20 mm fall is likely, with southwest winds increasing to the 70-110 km/hr range, temperatures peaking around 10-12 C in the evening and overnight hours.

SUNDAY will continue to be windy (westerly 70 to 100 km/hr) with sporadic rain but somewhat cooler at about 8 to 10 C.

MONDAY will turn sharply colder as winds veer to the northwest, temperatures will slide down to around 5 C and there may be wintry falls on higher ground in the north otherwise showers of rain or hail at lower elevations.

TUESDAY will bring in yet another mild sector with rain and temperatures of 7 to 9 C, but this storm will be weaker and a last gasp against colder air building up over the northern regions of the Atlantic.

The outlook calls for that colder air to dominate for about a week although with a few episodes where the Atlantic fights back with fast-moving disturbances. This could set up some of those battleground scenarios mentioned in our earlier long-range forecast. Too early to speculate on details but within the week of 10th to 16th there could be some situations with snow in northern areas and rain in the south. At other times it will be generally cold but more settled throughout, but with some wintry streamers (ocean-fed lines of showers) possible in a few areas. The temperatures will likely be moderately rather than severely cold, in the 3 to 7 C range daytimes and frosts at night. If I had to guess at the Christmas holiday weather, in the pattern upcoming the most likely outcome would be strong winds and either rain or mixed forms of precipitation in an active weather situation that could even become stormy. So I will be tracking that potential as we get closer, but maps already out to the 19th are pointing in that direction.

My local weather on Monday was cloudy with a bit of light snow mixed with freezing drizzle, no real change to the Sunday accumulation on the ground of about 15-20 cms. Temperatures were around -1 C. Meanwhile, another storm over the northeast U.S. has dumped very heavy snow in a few places from near Albany NY to Worcester MA and into southern VT and NH. Reports of over 50 cms have come in, but along the coast in the big cities, just a slick mixture of wet snow, freezing rain or sleet, and a coating of 1 to 2 cms here and there. The low responsible for this is south of Cape Cod moving northeast towards New Brunswick later tonight, placing Maine in the firing line today for heavy snow.

[M.T. Cranium]

Wednesday, 4 December, 2019

Forecasts for Ireland


TRENDS for the week of 4 to 10 December 2019

-- Temperatures will average near normal values to 1.0 above normal in many areas, with further above normal readings likely for several days between Thursday and Sunday although occasionally colder than average at the end of the interval. However, western counties may run somewhat more above normal on balance (2.0 or more).
-- Rainfall will eventually top up to near normal amounts in the west and north and may reach 50% of normal in the south and east.
-- Sunshine will probably appear at least as frequently as normal for December which is only 1.5 to 2 hours a day. Some places may do better than that in the south and east.

FORECASTS

TODAY will become breezy with increasing cloud east, overcast west with occasional rain, 5 to 15 mm likely there. Highs 8 to 11 C.

TONIGHT will be breezy to windy and mild with occasional rain, southwest winds increasing to 60 to 90 km/hr, lows 6 to 10 C.

THURSDAY will see stronger winds from the southwest (60 to 90 km/hr) and outbreaks of heavier rain at times, 10 to 20 mm possible. Temperatures will be steady in the 9 to 13 C range.

FRIDAY will become partly cloudy, breezy and slightly cooler again with a few passing showers and lows near 5 C with highs near 8 C.

SATURDAY will see mostly cloudy skies and rain becoming heavier late in the day, another 10 to 20 mm fall is likely, with southwest winds increasing to the 70-110 km/hr range, temperatures starting out 4-6 C and peaking around 10-12 C in the evening and overnight hours.

SUNDAY will continue to be windy (westerly 70 to 100 km/hr) with sporadic rain and temperatures will drop steadily from morning highs near 8 to 10 C. By evening it could be as cold as 2 to 5 C with mixed wintry showers possible over higher parts of Connacht and Ulster.

MONDAY will turn sharply colder as winds veer to the northwest, temperatures will slide down to around 3 to 5 C and there may be wintry falls on higher ground in the north otherwise showers of rain or hail at lower elevations. This cold shot will last only a few hours as the next Atlantic frontal disturbance pushes it away to the east by later Monday afternoon and evening. This will cause temperatures to become steady then rise overnight into Tuesday morning. Winds will back from north-northwest to west-southwest in that time, and will remain strong and gusty throughout.

TUESDAY will bring in yet another mild sector with rain and temperatures of 7 to 9 C, but this storm will be somewhat weaker and a last gasp against colder air building up over the northern regions of the Atlantic. Even so, it will produce some briefly stronger wind gusts near 90 km/hr before the wind turns northerly mid-week.

The OUTLOOK remains variable as discussed in more detail yesterday. Some colder intervals will be fighting for control against the Atlantic and its strong westerly flow. Temperatures are likely to be quite variable although average may be a bit below normal in this period. And it is still looking quite volatile and stormy towards the Christmas holiday period, even by the 20th signs of considerable storminess in the charts now coming into view. Some northern areas may have disruptive wintry falls by then, not so sure that the south will see them as a strong temperature gradient will develop north to south.

My local weather remained overcast and generally inactive with the addition of 3-5 cms of snow early morning hours, followed by temperatures steady near -1 C. The eastern U.S. storm has lost most of its strength in recent hours as it moves into New Brunswick and eastern Maine. Some further 10-20 cm amounts were reported in Maine on Monday, and further west they are digging out from 50 cms in some places near Albany NY and western MA. Some very cold outbreaks are on the charts for the next two weeks in eastern and central regions of North America, heavy lake effect snows and the occasional coastal snowstorm appear likely. It will be a cold, dry pattern in other places.

[M.T. Cranium]

Thursday, 5 December, 2019

Forecasts for Ireland


TRENDS for the week of 5 to 11 December 2019

-- Temperatures will average 1 to 2 deg above normal values. Colder intervals will not last long enough to make a full impact on daily extremes, so while it may seem colder at times, by the numbers it will average milder.
-- Rainfall will eventually top up to near normal amounts in the west and north and may reach 50% of normal in the south and east. The heaviest falls will be today, Saturday and Tuesday.
-- Sunshine will probably appear at least as frequently as normal for December which is only 1.5 to 2 hours a day. Some places may do better than that in the south and east.

FORECASTS

TODAY will have stronger winds from the southwest (60 to 90 km/hr) and outbreaks of heavier rain at times, 10 to 20 mm possible in western counties, closer to 5 mm further east. Temperatures will be steady in the 9 to 13 C range.

TONIGHT ... Winds will ease somewhat becoming westerly 40 to 70 km/hr, and there will be partial clearing with just a few showers. Continued rather mild with lows around 5 C.

FRIDAY will become partly cloudy, breezy and slightly cooler again with a few passing showers and lows near 5 C with highs near 8 C.

SATURDAY will see mostly cloudy skies and rain becoming heavier late in the day, another 10 to 20 mm fall is likely, with southwest winds increasing to the 70-110 km/hr range, temperatures starting out 4-6 C and peaking around 10-12 C in the evening and overnight hours.

SUNDAY will continue to be windy (westerly 70 to 100 km/hr) with sporadic rain and temperatures will drop steadily from morning highs near 8 to 10 C. By evening it could be as cold as 2 to 5 C with mixed wintry showers possible over higher parts of Connacht and Ulster. Very strong west to northwest winds will develop by afternoon and evening in Connacht, west Ulster and parts of west Munster, 70 to 120 km/hr with some minor damage possible in those areas. Further east, the winds will also increase but not to quite such intense levels, 60 to 100 km/hr can be expected.

MONDAY after it has turned sharply colder overnight, temperatures will be quite cold at first in the range of 3 to 5 C and there may be wintry showers over higher ground in the north otherwise showers of rain or hail at lower elevations. This cold shot will last only a few hours as the next Atlantic frontal disturbance pushes it away to the east by later Monday morning to mid-day. This will cause temperatures to become steady near 8 C and then rise a bit further overnight into Tuesday morning. Winds will back from north-northwest to west-southwest in that time, and will remain strong and gusty throughout although easing somewhat from peak gust speeds of 110 km/hr early in the day.

TUESDAY will bring in yet another mild sector with rain and temperatures of 8 to 11 C, but this storm will be somewhat weaker and a last gasp against colder air building up over the northern regions of the Atlantic. Even so, it will produce some briefly stronger wind gusts near 90 km/hr before the wind turns northerly mid-week.

The OUTLOOK calls for colder weather for a day or two with readings of 2 to 7 C mid-week, largely dry during that colder spell with isolated mixed wintry showers, but renewed battles between that colder air and still very active Atlantic jet stream driven disturbances will dominate mid-month and temperatures will be back up around 10 C by the end of the week with more rain and wind. There will likely be several more similar oscillations between air masses as the upper level winds remain very strong from a westerly direction, allowing milder and colder shots to take turns lasting a day or two. This still looks like it is building towards a possible major disturbance and with the highest energy peak around 25-26 December, it is likely to come around then (unless the upper level winds relax by then which could allow the storm track to re-set further south).

My local weather on Wednesday was overcast and foggy as milder air oozed into the region, changing light snow to drizzle and causing a partial thaw of ground cover snow which has settled now to about 8 cms. Temperatures rose gradually to about 3 C.

[M.T. Cranium]

Friday, 6 December, 2019

Forecasts for Ireland


TRENDS for the week of 6 to 12 Dec 2019

-- Temperatures will average 0.5 to 1.5 deg above normal values. Colder intervals will not last long enough to make a full impact on daily extremes, so while it may seem colder at times, by the numbers it will average slightly milder.
-- Rainfall will range from near normal in the west and north to less than 50% of normal in the south and east.
-- Sunshine will probably appear at least as frequently as normal for December which is only 1.5 to 2 hours a day. Some places may do better than that in the south and east.
-- Strong winds will be a significant factor on several occasions.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be partly cloudy, breezy and slightly cooler again with a few passing showers and the risk of a brief thunderstorm in parts of north Connacht and west Ulster this morning, with highs near 8 C in the north, 11 C south.

TONIGHT will continue partly cloudy to overcast with a few outbreaks of light rain towards morning, in moderate westerly winds backing to southwest by morning, 30 to 50 km/hr, temperatures generally in the range of 4 to 6 C.

SATURDAY will see mostly cloudy skies and rain becoming heavier late in the day, another 10 to 20 mm fall is likely, with southwest winds increasing to the 70-110 km/hr range, temperatures starting out 4-6 C and peaking around 10-12 C in the evening and overnight hours. Very windy at times on Saturday night with squally showers continuing as temperatures start to fall back after midnight to the 4-6 C range.

SUNDAY will continue to be windy (westerly 70 to 100 km/hr) with some rather squally showers that may include hail and thunder. Temperatures will drop steadily from early morning highs near 8 to 10 C. By evening it could be as cold as 2 to 5 C with mixed wintry showers possible over higher parts of Connacht and Ulster. Very strong west to northwest winds will develop by afternoon and evening in Connacht, west Ulster and parts of west Munster, 70 to 120 km/hr with some minor damage possible in those areas. Further east, the winds will also increase but not to quite such intense levels, 60 to 100 km/hr can be expected. Feeling very cold in the strong winds most of the day and certainly on Sunday evening and overnight.

MONDAY ... The coldest and windiest interval should come and go during the early morning hours and conditions will gradually moderate during the morning, with generally dry conditions for much of the daylight hours on Monday, winds backing to westerly 40 to 70 km/hr and temperatures recovering to around 8 C. It may start to cool down in the evening in the east but another storm will arrive on the west coast around midnight and spread strong southwest winds and rain across the country by Tuesday morning.

TUESDAY will continue windy and will turn colder in stages, with mixed wintry showers possible by later in the day in northern upland districts. Highs will be in the 6 to 8 C range but temperatures may fall to 2-4 C at times in the afternoon.

WEDNESDAY will also be cold and windy with passing showers, some becoming wintry, and highs of 4 to 7 C.

By Thursday of next week, another milder wedge will develop and temperatures will rebound to the 8-11 C range with rain at times and strong westerly winds. That regime may persist to about Saturday 14th before colder air takes another turn. These alternating periods of mild and cold will probably continue for a while longer.

My local weather on Thursday was a bit more pleasant than recently with some breaks in the general overcast and a milder high of 5 C. It has since fallen below freezing and refrozen some of the ambient slush and wet snow surfaces. We're expecting several days of mixed wet snow and drizzle with fog lasting through the weekend and a dry spell next week hopefully. Charts are looking very cold for eastern and central regions of North America later next week and lasting for at least two weeks once that trend has developed. This may help to keep the Atlantic regime active over the regions downstream.

[M.T. Cranium]

Saturday, 7 December, 2019

Forecasts for Ireland


TRENDS for the week of 7 to 13 Dec 2019

-- Temperatures will average near normal values. This would now be about 8-9 C for daytime highs and 2-3 C for overnight lows.
-- Rainfall will average about normal in the west and north, to 50% of normal in the south and east.
-- Sunshine will average close to normal, or about 2 hours a day on average.
-- Strong winds will be a frequent element also.

FORECASTS

TODAY will start out dry for most with a few breaks in overcast skies, then it will become rather windy by afternoon with rain developing across western counties, spreading to the east by this evening. Rather mild with highs 9 to 12 C.

TONIGHT will become windy with 10-20 mm rainfalls and southwest winds 80-110 km/hr. Continued mild at first then temperatures will drop sharply towards morning reaching 2-5 C. Rain will turn to squally showers during this colder phase.

TOMORROW (Sunday 8th) -- Alert for strong winds from Storm "Atiyah" -- while most of the day will be quite windy (westerly 70-110 km/hr), blustery and cold, with passing squally showers (mixed with snow on higher terrain), the evening hours will become stormy with even stronger winds especially in two areas (a) Atlantic coastal counties and (b) places inland south and east with local wind enhancement from nearby hills. Very strong northwest winds are expected, 80 to 130 km/hr, and these could peak even higher in a few areas with those enhanced conditions, for example, to the south of the Galtees in Waterford. The very strong winds will begin to moderate towards Monday morning after howling most of the night. Some places may be sheltered from the full force of these winds by high terrain (for example, parts of the Wicklow coast and possibly some parts of Dublin). Temperatures on Sunday will remain rather cold in the 4 to 7 C range for most, and could rise slightly during the strong winds before falling back again.

MONDAY will start out with a few remnant gusts of the departing windstorm but it will quickly moderate to become a relatively pleasant and dry day between that storm and another one due in on Monday night. Highs will reach about 8 to 10 C in moderate westerly breezes.

MONDAY NIGHT into TUESDAY will become very windy again with rain (15-25 mm potential) and temperatures steady 10 to 12 C. Winds will be south to southwest 70 to 120 km/hr. Then Tuesday will be rather similar to Sunday in seeing a falling temperature trend in strong westerly winds, and squally showers, but this time there won't be an interval of stronger winds as the following day remains similar in moderate to strong westerly winds, blustery showers and cool for WEDNESDAY with highs near 6 or 7 C.

The outlook calls for somewhat milder temperatures to return by THURSDAY into the first part of the weekend of 14th-15th, then colder for a few days before much milder towards the end of the second week of our outlook period. So the roller coaster ride will continue with rather frequent strong winds and outbreaks of rain.

My local weather on Friday was overcast and mild (for here) with a high near 5 C. The slush factor continues to grow as snow cover slowly melts.

[M.T. Cranium]

Sunday, 8 December, 2019

Forecasts for Ireland


TRENDS for the week will return tomorrow, no large changes foreseen from earlier.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be quite windy all day but even stronger winds will develop by late afternoon in west Munster. This will be the first part of storm "Atiyah" which continues into tonight. With the strong winds today, westerly 70 to 110 km/hr, passing showers that may be squally at times with hail and thunder, temperatures fairly steady in the range of 5 to 8 C, and wintry falls possible on higher ground as freezing levels will be down around summit levels in general. Winds increasing in west Munster to 80 to 120 km/hr with some local damage possible especially where strong winds are enhanced by terrain.

TONIGHT the first batch of strong winds will rapidly move through Munster and south Leinster with further minor damage potential and gusts to 120 km/hr. A second part of the storm will follow further north, moving into the Donegal Bay region around 7-9 p.m. and then rapidly sweeping through central counties towards Dublin by about midnight. This portion of the storm will contain northwesterly winds of 80 to 130 km/hr and could produce some damage especially in places not as frequently visited by strong winds. This will be an unusual wind direction for very strong gusts, by recent standards, so would advise not to assume anything about local conditions only based on these wind speeds in previous storms which might have been more of a southwest to west wind direction. Temperatures overnight will be steady in the 3 to 7 C range with further squally showers, or intervals of pelting rain (those more likely in Ulster and north Leinster).

MONDAY the stormy conditions will rapidly moderate in the hours after sunrise and by mid-day the weather will be much more tranquil with partly cloudy skies, perhaps an isolated shower, and westerly winds of only 50 to 70 km/hr. Highs will be 9 or 10 C late in the day.

MONDAY NIGHT into TUESDAY MORNING another storm arrives, this one also fairly powerful but with the more traditional southwest winds at 70 to 120 km/hr. About 10 to 20 mm of rain is likely. Temperatures will edge up to about 11 C and remain there until a cold front passes after sunrise on Tuesday. Clearing will begin around mid-day, followed by squally showers in a colder air mass. Temperatures will begin to drop off slowly at first, then faster towards evening on TUESDAY with squally showers, gusty westerly winds and temperatures 2 to 5 C.

WEDNESDAY will be cold and windy with passing wintry showers, mixed falls likely except near sea level in the south where mostly rain or hail, and snow on some hills. Winds westerly 50 to 80 km/hr will add a chill to temperatures steady in the 2 to 5 C range. It may turn a bit milder late in the afternoon.

THURSDAY will be milder again with more rain, not expected to be quite as windy as the earlier events, but with some gusts around 80 km/hr, and temperatures back up to near 10 C.

FRIDAY and SATURDAY will stay a bit milder than average with some rain at times, highs near 9 C.

It is likely to turn cold again for several days around Sunday 15th, and then more variable conditions after that cold interval.

My local weather on Saturday was overcast with wet snow melting as it fell, more slushy conditions and temperatures around 4 C. It would be preferable to have either rain or snow and not the messy mix, but it looks like more of these set-ups down the road although a few days of dry and settled weather will intervene. Very cold air has formed over the Canadian prairies, we are not going to get much of that as it goes by to our east, but the Great Lakes and Midwest, northeastern U.S. will be getting it full blast soon, with much below normal temperatures in those regions, some locally heavy lake effect and perhaps light coastal snow events forming.

Watch for possible updates, and stay in touch with the dedicated forum thread on storm Atiyah which will give you all the latest views of our resident weather experts and gurus. As I've already noted, the northwest wind direction has the potential to drive strong winds further inland than many of the more typical southwest gales that are mainly coastal impacts. Some of the guidance still has slight differences in the details too, at this rather short lead time, so it's fair to say that the outcome is not precisely defined by any means.