Fierce Cold Spell from Sunday (February 1st)

DOCARCH · 29-01-2009 6:15pm

Fantastic charts - this must be the payback for WC becoming a mod.

:

Is there/will there be enough precip to make an 'event'? Or are we relying on 'lake effect' snow?

ninebeanrows · 29-01-2009 6:17pm

DOCARCH wrote: »

Is there/will there be enough precip to make an 'event'? Or are we relying on 'lake effect' snow?

Looks like lake effect Sunday night/ Monday then perhaps organised snow during Tuesday into Wednesday.

Look far too good to be true at this stage :eek::D

Supercell · 29-01-2009 6:25pm

DOCARCH wrote: »

Fantastic charts - this must be the payback for WC becoming a mod. :

Lollers, you know I was thinking the exact same thing!

, he's got special powers now to make these things happen you see :pac::pac::pac:

Pangea · 29-01-2009 6:28pm

Im still gona be cautious ,because this sounds like the perfect letdown, keeping the snow thoughts to myself , instead of crying wolf to loved ones..... again....... lol :pac::D

DOCARCH · 29-01-2009 6:29pm

Pangea wrote: »

Im still gona be cautious ,because this sounds like the perfect letdown, keeping the snow thoughts to myself , instead of crying wolf to loved ones..... again....... lol :pac::D

+ 1......but quietly confident and currently minimising meetings next week to ensure I am close to computer!

Pangea · 29-01-2009 6:30pm

Supercell wrote: »

Lol, sure!, these charts are looking rather special. I'm frankly starting to worry that I wont be able to make it to the airport on February 9th!!

lol , where u fllying to?
I have to make the airport for feb 18th ,will i make it ? lol

200motels · 29-01-2009 6:33pm

It's really looking good for snow next week. What's the chances of snow in Waterford City?

darkman2 · 29-01-2009 6:35pm

Im gonna take a more cautious approach I think(since no one else will!). Don't be going OTT with it. Nothing is nailed yet.

The charts look good, a couple of nagging issues from Monday night for the East coast. Things look like getting a bit marginal. Still good charts and hopefully something actually materialises this time.

ninebeanrows · 29-01-2009 6:42pm

Loving the UKM 72hrs.

Show that this could actually happen, look at the cold pool. Corrrrrrrrrrr:D

UW72-7.GIF?29-18

200motels · 29-01-2009 6:45pm

darkman2 wrote: »

Im gonna take a more cautious approach I think(since no one else will!). Don't be going OTT with it. Nothing is nailed yet.

The charts look good, a couple of nagging issues from Monday night for the East coast. Things look like getting a bit marginal. Still good charts and hopefully something actually materialises this time.

[URL="javascript: viewimage(1);"]

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This chart looks very tasty.

munsterlegend · 29-01-2009 6:52pm

darkman2 wrote: »

Im gonna take a more cautious approach I think(since no one else will!). Don't be going OTT with it. Nothing is nailed yet.

The charts look good, a couple of nagging issues from Monday night for the East coast. Things look like getting a bit marginal. Still good charts and hopefully something actually materialises this time.

yeah the uk met office only show for monday/tuesday any weather warning for the east of the uk and not further west. not great at the reading charts but why are people so confident we will be effected?

Supercell · 29-01-2009 6:56pm

munsterlegend wrote: »

yeah the uk met office only show for monday/tuesday any weather warning for the east of the uk and not further west. not great at the reading charts but why are people so confident we will be effected?

I'd guess because most of southern England looks to be in the warmish sector of the low tracking over them on Monday, thus likely to be mostly rain/sleet there. The same cannot be said for Ireland though. That said the exact track of these things is very hard to forecast accurately. Also the main precip from the low may only be in the SE of the country but its likely to be snow on the northern edges and on high ground.. Literally anything can happen, its all very exciting

darkman2 · 29-01-2009 6:58pm

munsterlegend wrote: »

yeah the uk met office only show for monday/tuesday any weather warning for the east of the uk and not further west. not great at the reading charts but why are people so confident we will be effected?

Well, it is not the UKMO's business to be giving warnings for here but we have a similar effect off the Irish sea.

The GFS shows lying snow actually from Monday to Wednesday

Alot of snow in parts of the UK.

Pangea · 29-01-2009 7:07pm

^^^ hmmm not much snow for ireland on there, more green than white.

darkman2 · 29-01-2009 7:29pm

Good ECM to 120 hrs

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1201.gif

After that im not sure. Don't think it will be as good as this morning.

ninebeanrows · 29-01-2009 7:32pm

Most exceptional ECM i have ever seen.

Just wow, wow.

And at the earliest stage of the output.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm721.gif
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm961.gif
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1201.gif
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1441.gif

My god

Cornilius · 29-01-2009 7:36pm

Oh this looks too good to be true!Its been so long, is this time different to the so many close calls in the past? Will the snow that hopefully falls will it lie and freeze or will it thaw away quickly? It will be interesting to see how met eireann deal with it although there are still 3full days before the first flakes fall on sunday evening!

deromalley · 29-01-2009 7:38pm

Im sorry but I gotta ask the question - why do all you people post the weather in your area?

Shulgin · 29-01-2009 7:55pm

deromalley wrote: »

Im sorry but I gotta ask the question - why do all you people post the weather in your area?

Why not?

I find this stuff v interesting even if I don`t post here a lot.

Can`t wait for this cold/snowy spell

29-01-2009 7:58pm

Weathercheck wrote: »

Most exceptional ECM i have ever seen.

Just wow, wow.

And at the earliest stage of the output.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm721.gif
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm961.gif
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1201.gif
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1441.gif

My god

Have you any suggestions as to why Eveyln Cusack said cold dry and sunny first few days of february on RTE just now ?

deromalley · 29-01-2009 7:58pm

Fair enough. Everyone to their own...

Redsunset · 29-01-2009 7:59pm

Èvelyn is still not my friend.she just says no precip at all for the first few days of feb.she wants a good slap:mad::mad:

ninebeanrows · 29-01-2009 8:02pm

redsunset wrote: »

Èvelyn is still not my friend.she just says no precip at all for the first few days of feb.she wants a good slap:mad::mad:

Did she

Wrong she will be .Might be try in the west mind for Monday and some of Tuesday mind.

Lads no worries the charts this evening have never looked better

:D

Supercell · 29-01-2009 8:06pm

deromalley wrote: »

Im sorry but I gotta ask the question - why do all you people post the weather in your area?

Its the weather forum, whats the weather like in your area

?

Supercell · 29-01-2009 8:07pm

Why do I have the feeling this forum is going into utter meltdown next week when snow starved Dubliners go wild!!

:pac::p

Redsunset · 29-01-2009 8:12pm

hey sc is there something we're missing.cause evelyn is not seein any precip.or are they being just plain silly

darkman2 · 29-01-2009 8:14pm

Better inject a dose of realism

http://www.meteociel.com/modeles/ecmwf/run/ECM0-120.GIF?29-0 Tuesday

GFS is much better but very marginal on that evidence above for the East.

patneve · 29-01-2009 8:23pm

darkman2 wrote: »

Better inject a dose of realism

http://www.meteociel.com/modeles/ecmwf/run/ECM0-120.GIF?29-0 Tuesday

GFS is much better but very marginal on that evidence above for the East.

I trust GFS more than ECMWF fortunately;)

arctictree · 29-01-2009 8:23pm

Deleted User wrote: »

Have you any suggestions as to why Eveyln Cusack said cold dry and sunny first few days of february on RTE just now ?

I think she's just erring on the side of caution. And to be honest, most of the country will probably be dry and sunny. (Except the east coast!)

arctictree · 29-01-2009 8:26pm

Supercell wrote: »

Lol, sure!, these charts are looking rather special. I'm frankly starting to worry that I wont be able to make it to the airport on February 9th!!

TBH, if these charts come true then next week we will have a full week of ice and snow days. Temps around 2c will be sub zero here for you and me. Could be very treacherous conditions coming up. I am keep a close eye on it as my wife is due mid February. We may have to move out for a few weeks if the forecast gets really bad!

A

Supercell · 29-01-2009 8:31pm

arctictree wrote: »

TBH, if these charts come true then next week we will have a full week of ice and snow days. Temps around 2c will be sub zero here for you and me. Could be very treacherous conditions coming up. I am keep a close eye on it as my wife is due mid February. We may have to move out for a few weeks if the forecast gets really bad!

A

Congrats mate, delighted to hear it

Hopefully by mid February we will all be looking back at that incredible winter weather that was....
I think after the initial stuff that the roads here should be treated hopefully. though the back roads may be a bit dodgy, do you still have that 4x4?

Gonzo · 29-01-2009 8:39pm

that rte forecast was very dissapointing especially after the fact they were starting to come around to our way of thinking this morning, also just saw the sky news forecast and they have snow plastered over most of the uk for next week with dazzling sunshine in western areas, wales and all of Ireland. Neither channels are taking into account that the Irish Sea can produce showers over eastern Ireland, but what are the chances of this happening? could we see excellent lake snow conditions or will it just end up with nothing materialisng over the Irish sea? Its sure gonna be cold but im just a bit worried that there may not be a whole lot of precipitation around?

Pangea · 29-01-2009 8:48pm

wow just realised it was only thursday ,monday is a long way away when we are talking about models.

spideog7 · 29-01-2009 8:51pm

I think most of these lads are getting excited becasue they are predominantly all in the east. I've been sitting in the west watching all these cold spells and everyone seems to think we've been getting hammered all winter, I've seen 1 shower of snow. The North got the best of it last time and the East looks like it'll get it this time. This country's location seems to always put us on marginal snow events... stupid Atlantic, so any sign of anything and ye're all gone mad.

But continue I'm enjoying it

darkman2 · 29-01-2009 8:59pm

This is the ECM precip forcast for Monday which Met Eireann use

munsterlegend · 29-01-2009 9:05pm

Gonzo wrote: »

that rte forecast was very dissapointing especially after the fact they were starting to come around to our way of thinking this morning, also just saw the sky news forecast and they have snow plastered over most of the uk for next week with dazzling sunshine in western areas, wales and all of Ireland. Neither channels are taking into account that the Irish Sea can produce showers over eastern Ireland, but what are the chances of this happening? could we see excellent lake snow conditions or will it just end up with nothing materialisng over the Irish sea? Its sure gonna be cold but im just a bit worried that there may not be a whole lot of precipitation around?

yeah there seemed to a lot more optimism earlier today re snow amounts..i'm nearly glad meteireann are not predicting a lot of snow at this stage..usually they have warnings out for significant falls 2 or 3 days id advance and they never materialise. so heres hoping they underestimate things this time around.

Pangea · 29-01-2009 9:09pm

Hopefully we will get some Icycles like this

28 Dec 2000

200motels · 29-01-2009 9:17pm

Deleted User wrote: »

Have you any suggestions as to why Eveyln Cusack said cold dry and sunny first few days of february on RTE just now ?

Yeah I found that strange and Sky's long range also the same.

DOCARCH · 29-01-2009 9:20pm

@ Pangea - nicicles!

I am concerned about the potential lack of precip! Although the chart D'man2 just posted is good as the northeast wind for Dublin has the longest fetch over the Irish Sea but you tend to get snow streamers (hit & miss).

This is actaully mad - it's 5 days away! I'll wait until Sunday to go negative.

ninebeanrows · 29-01-2009 9:29pm

DOCARCH wrote: »

@ Pangea - nicicles!

I am concerned about the potential lack of precip! Although the chart D'man2 just posted is good as the northeast wind for Dublin has the longest fetch over the Irish Sea but you tend to get snow streamers (hit & miss).

This is actaully mad - it's 5 days away! I'll wait until Sunday to go negative.

Well really just 3 days away, this time 3 days we will be seeing the cold push in the 850hpa temps dip to -10c and dewpoints drop like stones, then snow showers should begin to be created in the Irish sea. All going well.....

200motels · 29-01-2009 9:39pm

Weathercheck wrote: »

Well really just 3 days away, this time 3 days we will be seeing the cold push in the 850hpa temps dip to -10c and dewpoints drop like stones, then snow showers should begin to be created in the Irish sea. All going well.....

Hope your right.

arctictree · 29-01-2009 9:47pm

DOCARCH wrote: »

Although the chart D'man2 just posted is good as the northeast wind for Dublin has the longest fetch over the Irish Sea but you tend to get snow streamers (hit & miss).

Too true. You could be in a situation where you are dry but a snowfest is happening 10 miles up the road!

Pangea · 29-01-2009 10:43pm

http://uk.news.yahoo.com/21/20090129/tuk-uk-faces-coldest-winter-for-13-years-6323e80.html

Trotter · 29-01-2009 10:53pm

I'll ask my usual.. Whats the chances of some snow in manky wet Waterford next week?

darkman2 · 29-01-2009 11:16pm

Trotter wrote: »

I'll ask my usual.. Whats the chances of some snow in manky wet Waterford next week?

Quite good actually.

Trotter · 29-01-2009 11:19pm

darkman2 wrote: »

Quite good actually.

Sweet Cheeses... Nobody's ever said that before here!!!!! :eek:

snowfan · 29-01-2009 11:20pm

darkman2 wrote: »

Quite good actually.

Hi Darkman, I live in Dublin - do I have a good chance of seeing snow too?

SF

kerry1960 · 29-01-2009 11:21pm

Sorry folks but the 18z look more a frostfest than a snowfest , in other words , a big downgrade , just my reading of the charts and i am quite
happy if im proven wrong ......

snowfan · 29-01-2009 11:40pm

kerry1960 wrote: »

Sorry folks but the 18z look more a frostfest than a snowfest , in other words , a big downgrade , just my reading of the charts and i am quite
happy if im proven wrong ......

Why does that not surprise me? :mad:
Ah well, there could be an upgrade tomorrow

I remain hopeful of a dusting of snow in Dublin

SF

ninebeanrows · 29-01-2009 11:42pm

kerry1960 wrote: »

Sorry folks but the 18z look more a frostfest than a snowfest , in other words , a big downgrade , just my reading of the charts and i am quite
happy if im proven wrong ......

Reading it wrong im afraid buddy, loads of snow Sunday night Monday in the east and midlands!

Fierce Cold Spell from Sunday (February 1st)

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