Storm Brian : Orange Wind Warning Sat 21 -10-17

Simon Gruber Says · 17-10-2017 10:42am

Invest is short for investigative area, an area with a potential developing storm. They use the numbers 90-99 to differentiate separate areas, reusing 90 after it gets to 99. And L means it's in the Atlantic.

Akrasia · 17-10-2017 10:44am

Sephiroth_dude wrote: »

What does 92L mean in the thread name?

It's a designation used by the NHC for a potential tropical depression that needs to be investigated (you'll see it referred to as 'invest 92L')

Once it's designated an invest code, the models will run scenarios based on the likely outcomes from that particular system.

Weather modelling is expensive, and they don't run models for the whole world all the time, they focus on areas of interest and they run forecast models based on those areas that have been identified as potential storms or impactful systems. (as well as modelling for geographic regions as part of the standard weather forecast)

The 9 means something to keep an eye on, the 2 is a placeholder which is recycled from 0 to 9 (ie it goes 90 91 92 93 ... 99 90 91) and the L refers to the basin that the storm is in, L refers to west atlantic, E refers to Eastern Pacific basin

VeVeX · 17-10-2017 10:45am

Sephiroth_dude wrote: »

92 is bad is it?

It’s a pretty heavy and tall storm.

Donegal Storm · 17-10-2017 11:02am

The fact that this storm originates as a tropical system doesn't really mean anything, it doedn't look like it'll amount to much and it'll have long transitioned to a standard Atlantic low pressure system by the time it reaches us.

At the moment it's forecast to track to our south more towards Cornwall and doesn't look like anything more than a typical autumn gale but with trees still in leaf it could obviously cause more disruption

pjohnson · 17-10-2017 11:03am

So how many tropical storms can we expect this winter? How often can they form?

pauldry · 17-10-2017 11:05am

only 80 odd hours away.

Hope it stays South

Friday night/Saturday morning impact

ryanch09 · 17-10-2017 11:21am

fryup wrote: »

is this it in the middle of the atlantic ? .....

https://www.ventusky.com/?p=50.0;-30.7;4&l=gust

No, that system is meant to reach us around thursday but will mostly affect the UK and not as bad. If you set ventusky to Thursday night you'll see it west of Spain

Duggie2012 · 17-10-2017 11:23am

how bad is this one likely to be?

Paully D · 17-10-2017 11:40am

MT's forecast today is a bit of a relief re: this one.

Nettle Soup · 17-10-2017 11:42am

Any idea on when this will affect Galway?
I have a hurling match at 1pm Saturday.

GhostyMcGhost · 17-10-2017 11:51am

Nettle Soup wrote: »

Any idea on when this will affect Galway?
I have a hurling match at 1pm.

when?

Honestly, its certainly not a when... Its a big IF.... Hasn't even formed yet (NHC give it less than 40% chance). Even IF it forms the path it could take has so many variables. It could f**k off up to greenland at this point for all anyone knows.

Its impossible to even try giving a time

Don't believe everything you read on fakebook

Kermit.de.frog · 17-10-2017 11:54am

Latest GFS

gfs-0-90.png?6

Mean wind speeds

90-602UK.GIF?17-6

Gusts

No need for concern at the moment but definitely needs to be watched.

Sephiroth_dude · 17-10-2017 11:57am

GhostyMcGhost wrote: »

It could f**k off up to greenland at this point for all anyone knows.

Hopefully it will

sorry Greenland

Gaoth Laidir · 17-10-2017 12:05pm

Nettle Soup wrote: »

Any idea on when this will affect Galway?
I have a hurling match at 1pm Saturday.

The NHC are aware of your hurling match and have the Hurricane Hunter aircraft on standby to penetrate the storm for you should it develop further.

Falcon L · 17-10-2017 12:13pm

We've lost power in the south east since yesterday morning. No cell service either. I hope this thing doesn't get formed, or buggers off somewhere else. I've had enough roaring wind to last me a while.

sryanbruen · 17-10-2017 12:18pm

pjohnson wrote: »

So how many tropical storms can we expect this winter? How often can they form?

[Mod Snip]
There's a thread for Winter 2017/18 where I've gone through pretty much all my methodology and continue to do so coming up to the season.

17-10-2017 12:34pm

pjohnson wrote: »

So how many tropical storms can we expect this winter?

None. Tropical storms generally don't like Winter.

sryanbruen · 17-10-2017 12:53pm

ryanch09 wrote: »

No, that system is meant to reach us around thursday but will mostly affect the UK and not as bad. If you set ventusky to Thursday night you'll see it west of Spain

It has the potential to bring spot flooding to places on Thursday, Met Éireann said.

MidMan25 · 17-10-2017 12:58pm

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

The NHC are aware of your hurling match and have the Hurricane Hunter aircraft on standby to penetrate the storm for you should it develop further.

Well done, he's U14

redsteveireland · 17-10-2017 1:02pm

The tabloids are having a field day. They have people convinced that this will be worse than ex-Ophelia.

pauldry · 17-10-2017 1:26pm

No it wont be.

Ophelia was unique in lots of ways....too lazy to type them

This will be a storm of 130 to 140kph gusts at worst

Where it hits no one knows yet

ryanch09 · 17-10-2017 1:34pm

The possible cyclone has vanished from the NHC charts

GhostyMcGhost · 17-10-2017 1:37pm

redsteveireland wrote: »

The tabloids are having a field day. They have people convinced that this will be worse than ex-Ophelia.

It’s gone. Papers can write front page story about Galway hurling now

Kermit.de.frog · 17-10-2017 2:03pm

ryanch09 wrote: »

The possible cyclone has vanished from the NHC charts

It's gone as a tropical cyclone potential. The storm itself is still going to develop allbeit over the colder north Atlantic.

carltonleon · 17-10-2017 2:14pm

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

It's gone as a tropical cyclone potential. The storm itself is still going to develop allbeit over the colder north Atlantic.

I am a newbie to all this but does that mean that it would not be quite as powerful as if would not be feeding off warmer waters ?

John.Icy · 17-10-2017 2:58pm

pauldry wrote: »

No it wont be.

Ophelia was unique in lots of ways....too lazy to type them

This will be a storm of 130 to 140kph gusts at worst

Where it hits no one knows yet

130kph to 140kph is a fair bit worse than the majority of Ireland saw yesterday?

But yeah, this is no Ophelia scenario but I imagine tabloid land don't mind too much.

Irish Steve · 17-10-2017 3:21pm

Going to suggest that this thread could probably be closed and renamed or name changed to add (now dissipated) or similar, it will reduce the trolling and fear mongers that are feeding on it at the moment.

sryanbruen · 17-10-2017 3:26pm

ECMWF 00z for Saturday showing the low making inroads across Ireland. Looking quite stormy but not as stormy as Ophelia with about a 5 to 10mb drop in 24 hours. The required threshold for a weather bomb or explosive cyclogenesis is 21mb in 24 hours. My thoughts on the suggested winds going by the synoptics yesterday of 50-60mph are the same today, no different.

sunny2004 · 17-10-2017 3:28pm

can the name of the storm be added to the title to prevent confusion with other storms ??

sryanbruen · 17-10-2017 3:29pm

sunny2004 wrote: »

can the name of the storm be added to the title to prevent confusion with other storms ??

But there is no name for it yet, if there even will be.

Donegal Storm · 17-10-2017 3:30pm

Irish Steve wrote: »

Going to suggest that this thread could probably be closed and renamed or name changed to add (now dissipated) or similar, it will reduce the trolling and fear mongers that are feeding on it at the moment.

The storm is still forecast to form, the fact that it originates from a tropical disturbance has little meaning other than making it seem more dramatic. Still needs to be watched in case it does track further north as often does happen with these systems

Hooter23 · 17-10-2017 3:39pm

The thing is if this potential storm does upgrade in strength before its reaches us it will go more north toward ireland...

spookwoman · 17-10-2017 4:00pm

on the uk forecasts they said they dont know yet but looking at their predictions Waterford and SE will get hit.

IRCA · 17-10-2017 4:20pm

I blame ventusky - anything that looks like a swirly mass is being flagged as a potential hurricane - nice toy but can be misleading to those who don't know better (me included!)

sryanbruen · 17-10-2017 4:49pm

The GFS 12z shows a more rapid intensification than the 06z:

ninebeanrows · 17-10-2017 4:51pm

Well the system does look threatening but looking at all guidance available it appears to mature south of Ireland with an expanding but less extreme wind-field and decreasing threat of any sting-jet type wind event.
gfs-0-78.png?12

butrasgali · 17-10-2017 5:36pm

I have a question about yesterday and future days..is an employee who was available for his work but the company closed its doors yesterday entitled to get paid for the day or can any of ye tell me what is the official stance
Ta

DOCARCH · 17-10-2017 5:56pm

butrasgali wrote: »

I have a question about yesterday and future days..is an employee who was available for his work but the company closed its doors yesterday entitled to get paid for the day or can any of ye tell me what is the official stance
Ta

Mod Note: Really not sure you are going to get answer here? This is a weather forum!

Reckless Abandonment · 17-10-2017 6:12pm

DOCARCH wrote: »

Mod Note: Really not sure you are going to get answer here? This is a weather forum!

Got this one doc.
Yes. Wasn't the staffs fault he/she didn't work.

But back to the weather

M.T. Cranium · 17-10-2017 7:00pm

GFS and GEM 12z very similar track, timing and intensity ...

Would expect moderate SE winds late Friday backing to east, heavy rain across the south, 20-40 mm potential, somewhat less windy as the low skims along the south coast (strong northeast spreading further north) then all regions backing rapidly to moderate northwest for Saturday.

Strong winds would hit south Wales and southwest England on this track.

Still time for this track to lift further north, decreasing chances of this being a named tropical storm at any time but it could happen (north of Bermuda before it gets too far north of 42N).

Akrasia · 17-10-2017 7:08pm

Reckless Abandonment wrote: »

Got this one doc.
Yes. Wasn't the staffs fault he/she didn't work.

But back to the weather

Storm Force Majeure

smallgarden · 17-10-2017 8:03pm

IRCA wrote: »

I blame ventusky - anything that looks like a swirly mass is being flagged as a potential hurricane - nice toy but can be misleading to those who don't know better (me included!)

Based on Ventusky I wouldn't fancy being in Japan next week

Meteorite58 · 17-10-2017 8:46pm

Latest ECMWF

850 hPa

Ag2n340.gif?1

GFS very similar, downgraded a bit in wind strength the last couple of runs. Strongest winds staying off shore atm, but these kind of tracks can change very easily although holding quite consistent the last few runs.

1DU5Utb.gif?1

Autochange · 17-10-2017 8:59pm

Irish Steve wrote: »

Going to suggest that this thread could probably be closed and renamed or name changed to add (now dissipated) or similar, it will reduce the trolling and fear mongers that are feeding on it at the moment.

Some folk are bricking it because Mary over the road read about it on the Sun.

froog · 17-10-2017 9:05pm

came across this earlier, you have to laugh. classic tabloid stuff.

http://www.express.co.uk/news/weather/867455/Storm-Brian-UK-weather-forecast-weather-bomb-Friday-Met-Office-BBC

Worried forecasters fear another violent tempest, which could potentially be the second storm of the season, Storm Brian, will unleash chaos similar to Ophelia’s 100mph onslaught this week.

Terrifying weather charts show a churning 80mph cyclone hurtling towards the UK with landfall expected late Friday into Saturday.

Fierce gales brewing in the Atlantic are poised to tear across Ireland and smash the southwest coast of Britain in a near carbon copy of Ophelia.

mickger844posts · 17-10-2017 9:07pm

Models are surprisingly in relative agreement on its track. If it went further North it could cause problems with so many trees weakened by Ophelia.

Samaris · 17-10-2017 9:10pm

The Express just don't feel it's been a good day unless they can use a headline with WORLD WAR THREE! in it.

"Storm Brian forms in Atlantic: UK superstorm alert as huge WEATHER BOMB to hit on FRIDAY."

They did like "weather bomb" though.

nagdefy · 17-10-2017 9:49pm

This one needs a bit of watching. One of those sneaky systems that could track further north. Also we're kind of taking a breather after Ophelia has passed.

sdanseo · 17-10-2017 9:56pm

The only part of this thread anyone in the media now cares about (and it isn't without some concern, Hurricane Force is still Hurricane Force):

Gaoth Laidir · 17-10-2017 10:25pm

Can someone please change the title of this thread to remove all reference to tropical systems?

Storm Brian : Orange Wind Warning Sat 21 -10-17

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