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Storm Brian : Orange Wind Warning Sat 21 -10-17
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16-10-2017 5:27pm#1Didn't want to post this in either of the Ophelia threads given how serious the situation is and the need to focus on current conditions, but the ECM has picked up on a currently developing tropical cyclone off the US coast, currently designated as Invest 92-L, which it develops into a system with hurricane force winds and then takes straight into Ireland:
Animated loop of the ECM from 48H onwards:
What do people make of this? This is more of a "classic" post tropical storm in that it will traverse the Atlantic from the American coast, around the circulation of the Azores high and then approach us - assuming it does develop, which is not yet a given, what kinds of impacts do people see from this?15
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Funny how 50 kt was halfway mark on the scale yesterday, now it's at the top.
Scary to think we'd get two in a week. There is surely no way a post-tropical transiting the North Atlantic could come anywhere near what we've just experienced.
The water temperatures are significantly above average which could allow it to keep much of its strength as it crosses the atlantic
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hatrickpatrick wrote: »Didn't want to post this in either of the Ophelia threads given how serious the situation is and the need to focus on current conditions, but the ECM has picked up on a currently developing tropical cyclone off the US coast, currently designated as Invest 92-L, which it develops into a system with hurricane force winds and then takes straight into Ireland:
Animated loop of the ECM from 48H onwards:
What do people make of this? This is more of a "classic" post tropical storm in that it will traverse the Atlantic from the American coast, around the circulation of the Azores high and then approach us - assuming it does develop, which is not yet a given, what kinds of impacts do people see from this?
Surely can't be that unlucky again! Usually these storms miss us to the north west?0 -
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Pretty good consensus across the models that it will form and will head towards us, no real agreement on track and intensity though
Already in view on the hi res Arpege model which did a pretty good job of todays event, not as strong and well to the south but it'll be worth a watch over the next few days
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Wow a lot of anger in your post just looking at what the charts are showing now, of course I don't know what it will be like in 5 days.Maybe go out and get some fresh air from Ophelia
Fresh air from Ophelia? :eek: you're crazy.
Anyway, getting off topic here.Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/
Weather photo portfolio - https://sryanbruen.myportfolio.com/weather-1
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sryanbruen wrote: »Going by the current synoptics, I'd say something along the lines of 50-60mph but not ruling out 70mph. It could all change as posters have highlighted however.
Although, with this from Windy.com and the ECMWF, I'd expect stronger winds than what I said above:
Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/
Weather photo portfolio - https://sryanbruen.myportfolio.com/weather-1
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Wow a lot of anger in your post ,just looking at what the charts are showing now, of course I don't know what it will be like in 5 days.Maybe go out and get some fresh air from Ophelia
I'm not in any way angry, however there's not much point in telling someone buses are okay when your original point says you've no idea yet!
No anger intended.0 -
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Mental Mickey wrote: »Another one coming next weekend?
Actually, this thread is a secret thread by the pear loving association of Ireland. (PLAI)
Joking, yes there is, but confidence is low0 -
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