Gold

DarkDusk wrote: »

Sorry but that chart is invalid because the CPI is a bullsh!t way of measuring inflation. The best way to see if gold, or any asset, is in a bubble is to compare it to other assets such as stocks, real estate, commodities etc. If you do some research, you will realize that gold is undervalued versus the S&P, the Dow and is undervalued when priced using real inflation figures.

DarkDusk wrote: »

Well, it is very misleading. Shadow stats use real inflation figures:


Edit:
To say gold is in a bubble is ridiculous. Of all the financial assets in the world, 1% are in gold - it is severely under-owned. When gold peaked the 80's, 26% of all financial assets were in gold. Therefore, you cannot compare the peaks in any way.

euroboom13 wrote: »

there is a time for safety and a time for bravery ....risk is is undervalued now....come out and play leave gold for dentures.....get some risk in
we have just experinced the depression (similar 1929/33)we`re now heading for an asset boom with increasing interest rates and high inflation (food/fuel driven)....high rents/ low property values...lower gold prices higher fuel prices.....

GOLD aint high risk (wont fall or rise much more than 50%) Little riskier than long term fixed accounts,but that aint RISK ...

....if u believe that this crisis will go on indefinitely stay with gold.....if u believe like me that change is nigh....speculate ....the tide is changing direction (what worked the last 5yrs wont work the next 5).......
wheres gold going........into european stock? safe haven exit time?
if i had gold.

1)id sell @1400$(or maybe less)

2) id buy in again, if it went to $1500(small sacrifice)

3)if not id enjoy the slide and buy in @$1000(or less)

but i dont own it or want it,bad investment now!

and those with the "fever "will ignore this.....
damage limitation........my investment plan is stay clear of gold......my post was to incourage caution......i`ts not going to 1500 for sometime so the negative end of my post will never happen....

while ye boys are busy patting each others backs in ur air raid shelters ,the smart ones are picking up cash up off the ground in the equity field......
...war is over ,get back to the upward only reality our goverments refuse to leave behind......(or fill ur boots with that safe haven stuff and perish )

rant over

but seriously ....get in front of something new,dont copy old winners....dangerous and cowardly
sorry wrong quote....agree with cavehill red.....to others
"upward only reality".....goverments need positive growth....otherwise there debt increases......crack up

....it IS how it works inflation most be greater than interest rates...
So what we`re seeing now doesnt work for goverment debt...hence the struggle...but it will be fixed and equities will be the winner.

my equity is mainly bank related......zero return high risk....slow burner but WILL be where everyone runs to in a couple of years ...

Not looking for any reassurance on my investments.......just knocking the edges off bullish gold bugs....time WILL prove
Property market was on the high end of a 20 year boom.....similar to gold....I`m telling people to get in at the bottom of a collasped european stock market ......zero similarity to (2008).........buy more gold/bitcoin you deserve it ...treat yourself
for the record my view is....and not looking for debate

oil down to less than...$80
gold less than $1000

equities =dow j up ..17000..$ back to e1.40
ftse up...7500
iseq up

financial crisis in the middle east..(saudi,iran....caused by cheap oil,and poor gold prices,,,income stolen)

One things for sure we are at the most interesting time in history for investing....and it is a complete unknown future..(last monday gold drop for example).....and it is good to see a variety of views trying to figure this one out.....there is going to be alot of fortunes made and lost in the coming months....there is no safe havans.... every market is volitile$$$...i am staying clear of(oil/gold/cash)

cost of producing gold is also inflated.

I believe ,something real will happen in the middle east when oil hits $80 a barrel,.....

(U.S. is increasing storage and production<shale talk>,price war coming....middle east oil boom is being slowly crippled by smart finance.... n korea wanted to help middle east by maintaining demand ....hence missile crisis propaganda by our news stations.....).....gold and oil slump is just what western society needs to break up middle east oil monopoly.....

OIL GOLD slump ahead.....perfect storm....

i could be wrong but i`m not going to loose money...Good luck
not interested in a im right/your wrong debate

i think (i will repeat)that gold values have increased 4x since Gordon Brown and that fed printing will not impact gold because it is already overpriced....so investors whom correctly believe that increased currency means higher commodity prices will be wrong.....commodities values are falling and currency printing is in full swing?.....strange but true....its not a profit taking fall as we are being led to believe ,it is a commodity price collaspe with QE increasing..

and that is why i am staying away from all commodities now.....it is not a normal time....and dangerous to presume it is.....

It is easy to say fed qe causes gold price inflation but the truth is the opposite is happening.....

Very sorry to tell you that i dont have bloomberg and have Never watch that tripe(or stations like it) for longer then 5 minutes.....and can honestly say that i haven`t watched or listen to public media in a very long long time.....

I will also say my views are normally opposite to media stations...but i cant comfirm that

I do believe i am right that qe is not having the desired effect on gold prices.(i may not stay right ,but have been proven right for the last 6 mnths)

I am convinced in my own head that gold prices will continue to slide along with brent crude and that the imf report on saudi has warned about this..

I dont want a debate because i agree that what is happening now should push gold prices up but what should happen and what ishappening is 2 very different things.

I believe gold has reached unsustainable high`s prior to crisis and that is why qe(what ever type ,dosen`t matter) is not effecting it.Oil is also too high,hence why there is a boom in exploration companies and old unprofitable finds are being toted as saleable...petrol at pumps has gone from 30pence to 160cents in 15 years,(gold has had a simillar story)

Your right and I am trying to put some sence to why youve been proven wrong the past year.
NEVER WATCHED BLOOMBERG seriously never

I am a very long time out of school and dont have good writing skills but am passionate about whats happen right now so i will make more of an effort
When i read his posts a wonder is he trying to sell me silver.
If its so good fill your boots.

I will try and find a link shortly(nov 2012) but what it was saying was that if oil price`s hit $80 a barrel its debt levels would be unsustanable and would have to enter a program similar to the piigs.

I thought you meant that gold would be a hedge against buying power errosion,if it is a trickle down effect ,why not invest in stocks and benefit from dividends and price increases before it reaches gold and oil?That would make more sence!

What you seem to be saying above is buy stocks now and gold/oil latter?Which i would agree with!
here`s a cnn referance to break even oil prices...Have read it personally out of the imf report but haven`t the pataints to find it!


I saw some striking numbers this week: Look at the "break-even" costs for the world's top oil producers. That is the minimum price at which these countries need to sell oil so that they can balance their budgets.

Russia now needs oil at $110 a barrel to manage its finances. For Iraq, the number is $100. Even Saudi Arabia now needs oil to trade around $80 a barrel just to balance its budgets. The numbers are also high for Algeria, Qatar, and Oman. Only a decade ago Saudi Arabia was able to balance its budget with oil prices averaging around $25 a barrel.

silver/gold/oil is risk at this moment in time.....I would worry if i was holding any....A friend of mine whom wouldn`t listen ,risked 50,000 on gold as a long play and today it is only worth 35,000.....He is holding tight but isn`t having a worry free time at all,infact the opposite..If
he bought silver he would be as bad off.

Or he could have bought equity which is having its moment right now.
No worry free investments now,safe haven`s included.
The problem is there are alot of orchards my friend and america have found some new ones and the old middle east oil monopoly is getting sqeezed.Middle east maybe stalling production to hold prices but america have hughly increased production and storage.

Now if oil and gold markets fall ,middle eastern oil nations will require a good old debt restructure/privatisation program,handing monopoly back to opec.(iran already tried to do a supply deal with n korea to keep up demand but for some reason n.korea got cold feet and chickened out.)

I for one wouldnt like to bet against this senario happening.
Recovery stocks are undervalued and stagnant ,they only appear to be rising because of qe.They are the only investment that seem to be moving with qe.They are definitely not rising like hot air, and preparing for major crash.Interest rates will go up to pull back unsustanible growth but all major economies are lowering interest rates ,so nobodies to worried a bout an overheated stock market yet only you.When they start to rise interest rates dramatically maybe i will sell but not till then.
The way currency/bonds /commodities /stock /work ,over 10 ,15,20 yrs ,is that eventually they are all goin up (if theyre still around),compared with previous years!

RANT

Interest rates on borrowings and inflation have alot to do with the apparent upward only movement(in time)
Goverments debt which, in this world is the biggest borrower,needs inflation to be greater than the interest borrowed.(so that ,even if the debt gets bigger,it gets erroded by inflation,...the debt never gets paid..the interest is covered by inflation....

Now heres the trap.Volitily(50% swing)
You can buy any investment on any day and as long as it is still on this earth in 20 yrs it will be worth more!
Life is too short for that in my opinion ,so i try to predict whats having a really bad day, but will be here in 20 years.So that when its cycle is in favor, i will not only profit on the normal upward movement but that by predictings its low, i will also profit on VOLITILY

Gold silver oil is nowhere near a low point.it is at a very healthy midway between high and possible low.
If i invest now i risk a paper loss or a better buying point.
Some stock is on the floor now and will be here in 20 yrs.
I feel that there is a better place for capitol now.

Every investment type has a bad day, banking stock,property,european gov bonds,gold silver.......I buy on that day.....Banking stock is my tip...
Pension funds ,corporations Hedgefunds will all return to this area within 5yrs....Not all banks will survive but the ones that do will be in a bigger pond....( if u bought property in 2006 u could have to wait till 2026,to get a return,but if u buy in 2016 u could make a killing by 2026)


Gold had a high last year ,if it had a good low last year, i would buy.

Rant over

I do beleive that inflation will go out of control,but with gold already at an inflated price it will not be a good hedge.Thats what is different in this crisis.

All stock are priced in $$??
I dont own any $$ stock?
Ever heard of the euro/ pound sterling/yen?

And on that note i give up,UR RIGHT/i`m wrong

Good luck

Codswollop.... my god....

"it is better to remain silent and be thought a fool than to speak and remove all doubt" abe Lincoln
"A man should be judged on what he has done and not what he is going to do"!Henry Ford

This thread is over one year old and for the past year i have been consistant!Now is the time for risk not safety!

In the past year stocks have risen considerably/gold has fallen considerably.
Where i have no doubt that you will be correct in the future and gold will go to $2000.I have proven to be very accurate in my predictions this past year.
Not only have you been wrong in your valuation of gold but also in your value on my advice("added nothing"!)

I am sorry if my post are poorly writin but as for value ,it holds its own. \
This post was set up to discuss peoples feelings about gold!I know it was only set up to cheerlead gold bugs!My unimportant feelings have been to warn people of the pitfalls i saw(correctly)!

I hope some open minded people have profited!
As for your childish,personal attack,it proves to me what type of people like investing and why it is so easy for me to profit from investing time and time again!

Believe your own views and make me even wealtier.
Thank you very much

I don`t study trading graph or any magic formulas that others use.I study history,world politics and world markets.I read peoples views on how the world works and try to predict what is coming down the road.I study whats happening in the world now , everyday,not by watching bloomberg but through twitter and other ways.I read every financial biography i can get my hands on.I study every period of major world events from 1815 to now.High finance and world politics,is my interest.


I believe that the wrong road to follow in investing is the obvious one!
I can tell be your threads (and the above question)that you but allot of strength into studying graphs,annual reports and trading tools which i believe to be very misleading.

In your last attack you said you where uninterested in my unimportant feelings and then you ask me more on my personal investment knowledge!!!lets just say i come from a very satisfactory speculative background

before you continue. Your arguments is why i don`t like to debate,not because i feel i am right.My opinions are allways open

I am speculator,my investment trend at the moment and for the past 4yrs is european banks and recovery stocks,most are doing well apart from one disaster.My "safe haven" investment is debt free property(has an income and capital gain unlike gold).My portfolio is my portfolio and do not need or want to promote it in anyway.I only post when a get annoyed with cheerleading,like what happened with the property market.

bank of ireland 5000 to 50000 shares 16 cent would be nice ,anything below 23 cent a good bet for an irish recovery...Stay clear of aib/ptsb till state exit if ever.
pure punt 1000euros on inm 35000 shares IF it recovers you will see a 5x on your punt within 6 months(or get wiped)
barclay/soc gen needs to fall back but good buys in long run!
any banks right now are well priced for a cap gain and dividends will return
READ...history

Your gold evidence is very main stream which worries me. QE means higher prices but not in Gold this time, WHY?
I said gold was half way between being too expensive and being too cheap.$1000 relatively cheap $1700 expensive..I have never owned Gold as an investment because it has only one upside which is capitol gain.I am a seculator and like to get in as close to bottom or not at all.With gold only having a cap gain potential, time is everything.
Every shopping centre i goto there is a man buying your unwanted gold.The discovery channel is on about gold everytime i switch it on .Max kieser is on twitter flat out on bout GOLD...

Mainstream....

stock market is over inflated but only in certain area`s.Banking stock way under valued after BANKING crisis
Just proved that most people can`t get there head round how expencive gold is.!!!how does that make a bull market.

gold $1285
silver $19.72
oil $102.5

post gone quite!

There is no reason left to say gold/silver is a safe investment.....
Great investment if bought at the rigth time ,which is NOT this year!

i would love to hear from honest traders whom got this wrong and have taken a less bullish stance!
I only had one warning about gold ,which was ,that qe should normally mean higher commodity prices ,but that this time it wasnot going to happen that way.

So everyone that was cheering on gold should have some caution.

gold prices are not following qe.

The reason is gold has already been over priced ,and increasing the money supply is only reducing the fall.

Stocks are only regrouping ,strong rally coming after the summer.
Stocks are well up this year still,gold aint!
Buffet didnt get rich by telling people what he is doing or going to do.He only broadcasts for his own financial gain not yours.Try to see what lower gold and oil prices would mean to the global markets and i dont think you will go to far wrong.

Thats just what i see.Not trying to convince anyone but i am warning gold bugs all year. Since $1700 and still see further decline.
I like your conviction.
I think the next month wont be pretty for anyone(especially stocks) but stocks will by far out shine everything else this year and has already!

LONG term everything that survives goes up!medium term if you buy too high you may miss a better opportunity.Short term everythings a gamble!
We are further away from a complete market or currency crash than we were in 2007/8/9.

Considering that the banks havent really started lending again,i think the 1 in 4 morgage arrears is not a bad starting point.The number one buyer for property in this country is a morgaged buyer.As soon as the banks are prepared to lend back into the market on a scale similar to 2003/4/5 ,all percieved difficulties will be remedied.

It is quite obvious that any decline happening in the $ is being well enginneered and not a crisis driven fluctuation as previously witness.

Gold in my opinion is a weapon of global trade,which the middle east have been using to protect oil payments.Gold has risen so much in the past decade that if there were a fall in price it would ,in hind sight , make the west energy bill very cheap.An oil bill paid for with gold at $1700 is going to look like a steal at $1200.THAT is what is happening with gold(and trade).Relatively speaking we will have Haved our energy bill.

Gold down not up!
1)All currencies are completely aware of possible collaspe,which makes it extremely less likely than when they were hit by The major banking crisis!


2)There is no morgaged backed property market at the moment.When the time is right for property inflation,investors and banks will jump in.We are nearly at that point where inflation and interest rates start to recover,making investment attractive.Negative equity will reduce quickly,morgage debt will be more attractive to honour.Interest rates will go up ,along with rent yields (and inflation).[/I]


f3)ed is more interested in the value of the $ than qe.



.
4)US energy is going through a complete change.Ramped up production and storage.Why?In my opinion it is preparing for a price war.gold/oil prices are completely related to this.That is why i wont be getting involved with either at this time![/I]


5)I see major financial crisis in the middle east first.We are already seeing increased political change.Final changes will happen when gold and oil prices bottom out!

All i know is what is happening now ,only makes sence ,if you factor in the middle east and why it is still booming(high gold/high oil).[/I]
This is why i dont like debating on here.Its like debating with a 14 yr old.

If you believe that you`ve spotted a major flaw in the $ that the fed havint picked up on yet ,fair play to you ,i`ve underestimated you, and for that i will appologise in the future!

Interest rates are a central banks(fed) way of tackling inflation,if the fed decides its time to rise them, i am sure it wont cause a dollar collaspe.

Falling poperty markets have a promblem with neg equity,rising ones dont!!

Sorry for not stating the OBVIOUS crisis i was merely pointing out the exception (mid east),which was my point!

As for reference,why?and do you think you will get a guide book!

The value the fed want the dollar to be dosent have to be a high value ,they may and do now want a low value.So what you foundseriously wrong was your asumption that value meant higher value!!You are melting your own pixie head but i will gladly take the blame!
$1230 gold
at what price is it ok to adkwowledge that caution should have been taken!
Caution was well adviced on this post.
And this advise is still being discredited as unfounded!
While advise from gold/silver sales websites is being promoted and heralded as wisdom!!!
sorry i thought my advice was mainly dont buy gold?
Holding gold long term is never going to be a risky investment ,just like property or land.Its the short term pain and the better buying opportunity that is being missed,which needs to be considered.

As i said before the production costs are inflated now also due to over demand and higher oil prices.If we get a drop in oil prices ,we will see gold rich oil barons selling gold to replace profits on a collasping income.Imf have predicted this.The Middle east has being trying to increase (oil)demand after a fall out with royal dutch shell.Iran tried to do a deal with N korea to stabalise demand.I have only studied this briefly but have read enough to be cautious of putting any money in these areas.America has increase production and storage in the past few years,in my opinion in preparation for or to avoid, another major oil crises.

If world powers are hedging in some way a possible dispute ,i for one aint going to try and predict.But my study into this area has thought me that the last thing the middle east will want to happen right now is for either oil/or gold to continue going south,and from watching americas actions of late ,south is where they and europe would like to see things go!!

As for what type of gold i am talking about, to me there is only one type,call a spade a spade.
sorry just one more thing,there is facts/charts and links to prove and equally disprove everything i have said and you have said.What i have tried to do is generate a view by researching what i can.I consider a strong point of view a better guidance than any one piece of evidence,and i dont mean that as a cope out.The internet/media is full of misguidance.

Good.My research has evaded you!

(sorry "oil rich barons"=states over dependent on high oil prices)
Listen last point if you believe oil prices are at a reasonable price and that gold should be worth a months wages an ounce.I am wasting your time.

As for geo-politics it is only a guessing game(for a mere civilian) but very interesting times and gold price fluctuations is pivitol to all nations trade.So what minor hits small investors are feeling here ,is absolutely distroying certain trade agreements.I am making wild asumptions but they are well grounded and researched.

I cannot add anything solid ,only extreme caution ,when it comes to 2 commodities that are completely related to what makes nations powerful!Todays price fluctuations are power related.How ,you tell me!

my only advise here "stay clear of Gold" for now

DarkDusk wrote: »

When the next leg-up in gold happens, that's when the mania will start and everyone will start talking about gold. That is when people will be lining up to BUY GOLD outside jewellers, NOT TO SELL THEIR GOLD.

The most important word here is PUBLIC! The PUBLIC are SELLING GOLD to jewellers for cash and have been doing so for years. When the PUBLIC starts BUYING, then you should get ready to sell.

DarkDusk wrote: »

If it was, physical demand would be much higher than right now, and there would be a physical shortage. You can't really count India in your argument because they have always bought gold, independent of economic situations. Yes, China is growing all the time in regards to gold demand but it's not having the desired effect of a global demand by consumers.

When inflation hits consumers in the next 1-2 years, THAT is when gold and silver will become very attractive to the public.

DarkDusk wrote: »

However, when this market enters bubble phase, the mainstream public will start buying and the media will start covering it the way it did with stocks and property.

The media has never liked gold because it pays no dividends etc. - the time is coming when the media will be praising gold and telling people to buy it, the bubble phase.

This bubble phase could be just around the corner, oil corrected 37% in 2007 before entering the phase, in 1998 the NASDAQ dipped 40% before blowing off. What I'm worried about is knowing when to sell when it actually happens, I guess I'll play it by ear. :P

DarkDusk wrote: »

Yes, that would be correct in a normal scenario. But in the scenario in which there is a currency crisis, which I believe is just around the corner, people would be actually buying gold. I think inflation is going to be a very serious problem in the near future and when people see the prices of petrol, food and energy rising all around them and wake up to the fact that their currency is worthless, they will have no choice to protect their savings with tangible assets.

DarkDusk wrote: »

I'm not talking about hyperinflation straight away, I'm talking about a 20-30% inflation on most consumer goods. People would still have money for gold (middle class obviously) and at this stage would have woken up to the fact that their currency is not a store of wealth.

DarkDusk wrote: »

Currencies WILL be worthless, but there is quite a bit of time between now and then to prepare by protecting your wealth.

euroboom13 wrote: »

hhhmmmm it is strange even when good advise is proven correct how some people still like to make out what they were told was totally unfounded and easy to ignore....the future is bright!:)for few.....at lasts all the village idiots are in the one place ..GOLD......good luck

• QE in countries throughout the world (at least 30 countries apparently)
• Sovereign debt
• The slowdown of gold production due to low price of gold
• Currency debasement
• Potential hyperinflation
• Unallocated gold securities, ETFs etc.
• Gold stockpiling by central banks
• Historical storage of wealth
• Historical hedge against financial uncertainty
• A form of currency and money for thousands of years