Winter 2020-2021 - The search for the first Snowfall

M.T. Cranium · 12-11-2020 11:15pm

I just posted something interesting on Net-weather where the top 23 November CET values were then analyzed for winter values to follow.

Basically what I found was that the mild signal was almost gone from the averages by December and entirely absent by Jan-Feb. That means a random distribution of mild, average and cold months will follow the mildest 10% of Novembers. In fact, November 1946 was tied 24th warmest. There were two milder than 1946 (1822, 1939) that were followed by a sub-zero January. And most of the really mild winters were not preceded by a mild January (2015-16 an exception).

There's no need to write off winter based on this November. But it does add some further weight to the back-loaded winter scenario.

Danno · 12-11-2020 11:26pm

It's 2020 - we can't rule out a mega-volcano popping somewhere and giving us a harsh winter.

Larbre34 · 13-11-2020 12:40am

Danno wrote: »

It's 2020 - we can't rule out a mega-volcano popping somewhere and giving us a harsh winter.

Or that they all go off together.

Graces7 · 13-11-2020 7:57am

Fr_Dougal wrote: »

2010 was the guy falling on ice one, but very snowy in most parts of the country.

I was up in the Blue Stacks in Donegal. Well and truly snowed in for 6 weeks. Water frozen so melted snow to drink.... I had the two dogs then and they had a ball tunnelling in the snow.

Utterly beautiful but impractical as Ireland is just not equipped for such weather. One of the local priests was going about on skis. but unless you had a 4 wheel drive or good neighbours. ? Many old folk got stranded and there were cases of hypothermia.

Up there they did not deal with the roads which were literally three inches thick with solid ice.

We were saved by a local boardsie! Supplies of food and fuel... ( wonder if he is still around? )

In Orkney we had snow every year and we were equipped for it. As a farming community.. My Home Help arrived with supplies by tractor. One year the lorry with the snowplough attachment got stuck and had to be pulled out by a tractor. I was too far away to hear the language thankfully :eek:

But there was never the chaos we saw here, as it was normal.

Here I am well stocked for every eventuality; and have good neighbours.

You have to be ready for these events well in advance. Orkney and then Donegal taught me that with their opposites.

So be very careful what you wish for and be aware of the probable dangers!

pauldry · 13-11-2020 11:42am

Nice GFS chart initializing so far with us on colder side of normal coming to the end of month. Thats it jinxed.

sryanbruen · 13-11-2020 1:37pm

sryanbruen wrote: »

Indeed, not a chance in foreseeable future. Looks all bog standard November stuff.

Haven't looked at model runs besides glances at model threads but looks to me that there's an increasing chance of likelihood on mid-Atlantic ridging getting going in late November or at least the Euro high retrogressing to our west allowing heights to lower over Scandinavia. This is more indicative of what La Niña Novembers are characterised by as compared to what we've seen this November to now.

The La Niña signature has been overriden thus far by tropical convection and global patterns. It doesn't look to be a classic by any means and should not be garnered comparisons to late 2010 or even late 2017 but higher chance nevertheless of some cold snaps rather than full on Euro high, Icelandic low and mild, cloudy damp conditions.

As ever with weather, we'll see it through and see how she goes.

Cluedo Monopoly · 13-11-2020 1:56pm

I always like to see snow on the peaks (600m+) first. Always gives me hope of a cold spell.
I don't know about the rest of you but I've seen no white summits as yet.

pauldry · 13-11-2020 3:41pm

Cant even see the mountains due to cloud

BruceK0508 · 13-11-2020 5:11pm

My climacell app says there is no chance of the temperatures dipping before the beginning of January. It seems it will stay cloudy throughout the winter.

Pangea · 14-11-2020 8:27am

BBC forecast said much cooler by next weekend showing a northerly cool plume of air coming down

nacho libre · 14-11-2020 7:56pm

Pangea wrote: »

BBC forecast said much cooler by next weekend showing a northerly cool plume of air coming down

Their long range forecast has been indicating a cold start to December.

Clonmel1000 · 15-11-2020 12:02pm

daniel_t1409 wrote: »

I heard it's going to become colder next week apparently.

Down from 14 degrees to 8/9 which quill bring in the Daily Mail headlines of snow Armageddon.

Gonzo · 15-11-2020 12:24pm

daniel_t1409 wrote: »

I heard it's going to become colder next week apparently.

there won't be much in the way of cold weather any time soon. The Altantic is absolutely unleashed and we will be mostly be having mild and wet conditions with some cooler interludes and the cooler interludes will be either average temperatures or slightly cooler than average and mild sectors will be several degree's above average and perhaps longer lasting than the cooler sectors, so mild overall. The signals are overall very mild right up to January.

begbysback · 15-11-2020 12:28pm

Gotta love weather people, it’s almost like for the first time in the history of this country on planet earth it’s going to get cold in late November.

daniel_t1409 · 15-11-2020 12:53pm

ok did i real;ly start this much of a fuss just for saying it might get cold?:rolleyes::rolleyes::rolleyes:

Clonmel1000 · 15-11-2020 1:54pm

owlbethere wrote: »

How likely is this to develop into a sharp cold spell?

Would it be maddess to order a pair of them walking sticks with grips? I remember 2010 and it was a headache.

Did you do this in the end?

zell12 · 15-11-2020 2:51pm

Well, the Mail sez so
Heavy rain and gale force winds leaves roads underwater as flooding hits parts of UK with Met Office issuing yellow weather warning for the south of England - before temperatures plunge next week

nacho libre · 15-11-2020 8:15pm

It seems to be a typical la nina pattern setting up. As time goes on in this scenario we may get wintry showers in the brief cooler interludes before it comes milder. We won't be getting snow from the east or north east, but it is possible we could get a brief window for sleet or snow showers, especially at night. We'll see.

pauldry · 16-11-2020 10:40am

Every day will be mild or cool apart from a day near the end of November that seems much cooler. This is what I see on charts most of the time.

Danno · 16-11-2020 2:45pm

Far reaches of the GFS FI showing quite an easterly developing for the turn of the month into December:

Not sure if the images above are static - but they are from this morning's 6Z run (November 16th 2020).

giveitholly · 16-11-2020 2:48pm

So we are gone from mid November to start of December

Danno · 16-11-2020 2:49pm

giveitholly wrote: »

So we are gone from mid November to start of December

MOD NOTE: Changed the title of the Thread as mid-November is here and the search for the first snow continues!

teddybones · 16-11-2020 3:10pm

giveitholly wrote: »

So we are gone from mid November to start of December

Isn't that the nature of an F1 thread? Stunning snow charts just always out of reach.

Gonzo · 16-11-2020 3:30pm

teddybones wrote: »

Isn't that the nature of an F1 thread? Stunning snow charts just always out of reach.

we usually end up chasing the carrot from November all the way to March, always 10 days out!

giveitholly · 16-11-2020 4:26pm

Danno wrote: »

MOD NOTE: Changed the title of the Thread as mid-November is here and the search for the first snow continues!

Wasn't having a go at you Danno if you thought I was,Keep up the good work and I like the new title

Danno · 27-11-2020 11:45pm

Just for fun:

A great old tale!

DIARY OF A SNOW SHOVELER:

Moved to New York , We heard that summers are fun and winter is beautiful. We think there is no more beautiful a place in the whole world!

December 8 - 6:00 PM It started to snow. The first snow of the season and the wife and I took our cocktails and sat for hours by the window watching the huge soft flakes drift down from heaven. It looked like a Grandma Moses print. So romantic, we felt like newlyweds again. I love snow!

December 9 - We woke to a beautiful blanket of crystal white snow covering every inch of the landscape. What a fantastic sight! Can there be a more lovely place in the whole world? Moving here was the best idea I've ever had! Shoveled for the first time in years and felt like a boy again. I did both our driveway and the sidewalks.

This afternoon the snowplow came along and covered up the sidewalks and closed in the driveway, so I got to shovel again. What a perfect life!

December 12 - The sun has melted all our lovely snow. Such a disappointment! My neighbor tells me not to worry- we'll definitely have a white Christmas. No snow on Christmas would be awful! They say we'll have so much snow by the end of winter, that I'll never want to see snow again. I don't think that's possible. He is such a nice man, I'm glad he's our neighbor.

December 14 - Snow, lovely snow! 8 inches last night. The temperature dropped to -20. The cold makes everything sparkle so. The wind took my breath away, but I warmed up by shoveling the driveway and sidewalks. This is the life! The snowplow came back this afternoon and buried everything again. I didn't realize I would have to do quite this much shoveling, but I'll certainly get back in shape this way. I wish I wouldn't huff and puff so.

December 15 - 20 inches forecast. Sold my van and bought a 4x4 Blazer. Bought snow tires for the wife's car and 2 extra shovels. Stocked the freezer. The wife wants a wood stove in case the electricity goes out. I think that's silly. We aren't in Alaska, after all.

December 16 - Ice storm this morning. Fell on my ass on the ice in the driveway putting down salt. Hurt like hell. The wife laughed for an hour, which I think was very cruel.

December 17 - Still way below freezing. Roads are too icy to go anywhere. Electricity was off for 5 hours. I had to pile the blankets on to stay warm. Nothing to do but stare at the wife and try not to irritate her. Guess I should've bought a wood stove, but won't admit it to her. God! I hate it when she's right. I can't believe I'm freezing to death in my own living room.

December 20 - Electricity's back on, but had another 14 inches of the damn stuff last night. More shoveling! Took all day. The damn snowplow came by twice. Tried to find a neighbor kid to shovel, but. they said they're too busy playing hockey. I think they're lying. Called the only hardware store around to see about buying a snow blower and they're out. Might have another shipment in March. I think they're lying. Neighbor says I have to shovel or the city will have it done and bill me. I think he's lying.

December 22 - Yup neighbor was right about a white Christmas because 13 more inches of the white **** fell today, and it's so cold, it probably won't melt till August. Took me 45 minutes to get all dressed up to go out to shovel and then I had to piss. By the time I got undressed, pissed and dressed again, I was too tired to shovel. Tried to hire Neighbor who has a plow on his truck-for the rest of the winter, but he says he's too busy. I think the asshole is lying.

December 23 - Only 2 inches of snow today. And it warmed up to 0. The wife wanted me to decorate the front of the house this morning. What is she, nuts?!! Why didn't she tell me to do that a month ago. She says she did but I think she's lying.

December 24 - 6 inches - Snow packed so hard by snowplow, l broke the shovel. Thought I was having a heart attack. If I ever catch the son of a bitch who drives that snow plow, I'll drag him through the snow by his balls and beat him to death with my broken shovel. I know he hides around the corner and waits for me to finish shoveling, and then he comes down the street...at a 100 miles an hour and throws snow all over where I've just been! Tonight the wife wanted me to sing Christmas carols with her and open our presents...but I was too busy watching for the damn snowplow.

December 25 - Merry f---ing Christmas! 20 more inches of the damn slop tonight - snowed in. The idea of shoveling makes my blood boil. God, I hate the snow! Then the snowplow driver came by asking for a donation and I hit him over the head with my shovel. The wife says I have a bad attitude. I think she's a fricking idiot. If I have to watch "It's A Wonderful Life" one more time, I'm going to feed her through a chipper shredder.

December 26 - Still snowed in. Why the hell did I ever move here? It was all HER idea. She's really getting on my nerves.

December 27 - Temperature dropped to -30 and the pipes froze; plumber came after 14 hours of waiting for him, he only charged me $4,400 to replace all my pipes.

December 28 - Warmed up to above -20. Still snowed in. The BITCH is driving me crazy!!!

December 29 - 10 more inches. I have to shovel the roof or it could cave in. That's the silliest thing I ever heard. How dumb does he think I am?

December 30 - Roof caved in. I beat up the snow plow driver, and now he is suing me for a million dollars, not only for the beating I gave him, but also for trying to shove the broken snow shovel up his ass. The wife went home to her mother. Nine more inches predicted.

December 31 - I set fire to what's left of the house. No more shoveling.

January 8 - Feel so good. I just love those little white pills they keep giving me. Why am I tied to the bed ???

-Author Unknown

M.T. Cranium · 03-12-2020 8:00am

That sounds rather like my life 1975 to 1995 before I moved west to escape harsh Ontario winters.

New York City weather weenies would kill for any part of that, perhaps upstate New York around Watertown at the east end of Lake Ontario gets like that. New York City in 1888 also.

As for the search for snow, I think anyone who ventures up into the higher parts of Wicklow on Friday morning might be rewarded by end of the day, whether they could then get out again is another question.