Brexit discussion thread VIII (Please read OP before posting)

Christy42 · 21-04-2019 7:00pm

Deleted User wrote: »

fly_agaric wrote: »

Read yesterday that a joke candidate may run against Nigel Farage in the European elections.

https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/lord-buckethead-reveals-plans-to-stand-against-nigel-farage-in-the-euro-elections-a4122341.html

I'm unsure if candidates like will help much (and may damage non Euro-sceptic candidates by fragmenting their vote even further).

I'm cynical and have doubts if people (in the UK) who will carry a snappy poster for an exciting fair-weather protest march, or sign a pointless internet petition will actually show up at the polling booth in larger numbers this year to do the boring plumbing job of voting.

You always just end up casting the ballot for dry individuals + parties you won't 100 % agree with, and in a PR election thinking quite negatively about the nut-jobs/incometents/liars that you want to keep out of power as opposed to those who you want to actively vote in. It's not exciting at all but is more important.

Polls seem to show that between the Conservatives, the single issue Brexiteers and the new look "alt right" style UKIP about 45-50 % of the seats the UK return will likely be quite virulently anti EU + disruptive (vs merely Euro-sceptic...).

There will likely be more anti-EU/populist/far right "politicians" in other countries returned for them to hook up with too + generate even more chaos.
I hope the more centrist politicians that are running things at the moment are not going to regret their cowardice not forcing the issue with the UK and bringing things to a resolution (of some sort) before the current EU elections.

Could be used as a bargaining chip in the next round talks between the UK & EU to ease back a bit on the Backstop (sufficient to get unionists onboard)to avoid the possibility of having such a disruptive force in the EU parliament.

The EU may see that a small step back may be a price worth paying to avoid months or years of disruptive behaver.

The DUP will always be disruptive.

Leroy42 · 21-04-2019 7:50pm

People seem to be making the mistake the the average person will make a choice on standards, that they will not accept chlorinated chicken or whatever.

But it won't be the individual consumer that makes the choice, not unless they have the money to make the choice.

The 'choice' will be made by the NHS, by schools, by company canteens, by food providers at sports events. And then when price pressure forces the likes of Tesco etc to start competing with other supermarkets they will label the food 'produced in the UK' and then the consumer will have no choice.

It is a fallacy, spread by the likes of JRM, that people will have a choice. Do 'working families' in Sunderland really make much choice between organic free range feed chicken or the normal chicken in Tesco's? Maybe some do, but the majority don't except for maybe special occasions.

reslfj · 21-04-2019 8:34pm

Deleted User wrote: »

The EU may see ....

The EU27 is sick and tired of the UK's way to negotiate, without any stated goal, without any agreement and with negotiators that hasn't even understood or even read the basics of the negotiation agenda.

So don't play hardball. To you it's "Aye, Aye" - you may even try "Aye, Aye, Sir" - or by all means head for the cliff.

After all "Survival of the fittest" is an old English discovery.

Lars

CelticRambler · 21-04-2019 8:40pm

Deleted User wrote: »

I don't see British farmers taking plans to import low grade food products lying down, could cause a huge consumer backlash if "less safe" produce was imported.

British farmers will have a hell of a lot more to worry about when their CAP subsidies disappear and aren't replaced by Westminster handouts. And again, if you want to see how effective a farmers' lobby is in the Brave New World outside the EU, look at American farmers. Hammered by Trump's tariff war with China, they were promised a bailout to make up for loss of earnings, then the same Trump shut the government down so the farmers couldn't draw down funds for buying stock and seeds. Small farmers in the US are going out of business at a rapid rate, with their farms being bought up by ... you've guessed it, corporate "farmers" and pension-funds - the same "1%" that already own half the land in England.

Sam Russell · 21-04-2019 8:41pm

Leroy42 wrote: »

People seem to be making the mistake the the average person will make a choice on standards, that they will not accept chlorinated chicken or whatever.

But it won't be the individual consumer that makes the choice, not unless they have the money to make the choice.

The 'choice' will be made by the NHS, by schools, by company canteens, by food providers at sports events. And then when price pressure forces the likes of Tesco etc to start competing with other supermarkets they will label the food 'produced in the UK' and then the consumer will have no choice.

It is a fallacy, spread by the likes of JRM, that people will have a choice. Do 'working families' in Sunderland really make much choice between organic free range feed chicken or the normal chicken in Tesco's? Maybe some do, but the majority don't except for maybe special occasions.

Consumer choice is a myth.

If you eat out, there is no doubt that much of the dodgy food is supplied through the catering trade. Chicken and beef sold through the main supermarkets in Ireland is all Bord Bia sourced, so where do the non Bord Bia sourced meats go? The wholesale food market that supplies the likes of hospitals, restaurants, pubs, etc. And then there is factory produced 'convenience' processed food.

The UK have been responsible for Mad Cow disease, foot and mouth, and plenty of other food scandals all because they are in search of cheap food. They invented the abominable Chorley Wood loaf, where the indigestible bread is produced in hours instead of days.

If there is way to make food cheap, then the UK will find it and sell it to unsuspecting shoppers. We suffer from processed food that is cheap and poisonous. That is why so many are obese.

Spanish Eyes · 21-04-2019 8:45pm

Even if the Brexit Party cleans up in the EP elections, I still doubt that a UK Brexit will happen.

It is really just a gut feeling, and others may disagree with me. But Parliament has so far rejected the WA and No Deal. Wonder what's next so.

Anyway, to me, the worst outcome for Farage and co. is a full on Brexit, their cause will be over then surely.

CelticRambler · 21-04-2019 8:55pm

fly_agaric wrote: »

Polls seem to show that between the Conservatives, the single issue Brexiteers and the new look "alt right" style UKIP about 45-50 % of the seats the UK return will likely be quite virulently anti EU + disruptive (vs merely Euro-sceptic...).

There will likely be more anti-EU/populist/far right "politicians" in other countries returned for them to hook up with too + generate even more chaos.
I hope the more centrist politicians that are running things at the moment are not going to regret their cowardice not forcing the issue with the UK and bringing things to a resolution (of some sort) before the current EU elections.

This is a concern that I share, and it's probably the one reason above all others that I would want to see the UK not take part in the EP elections, or be gone out of the parliament pretty soon afterwards.

But the more I think about it, the more I'm convinced that we will (or "need to") see the break-up of the United Kingdom within a decade or so. The UK has become a toxic and dysfunctional alliance of discontent constituent countries. Two (arguably three, or even four, if we consider Devon-Cornwall as a legitimate statelet) have a clear national identity, and a path towards independence marked out.

The problem is England; all the problems are "England". If it was a reasonable proposal to break up the Soviet Union, and Yugoslavia, and Czechoslovakia, then there is no reason not to work towards the break-up of the (no-longer) United Kingdom. NI can re-unite with the RoI (precedent = East Germany); Scotland, Wales and Cornwall can become independent and re-join the EU in due course (precedent = Slovenia, Lithuania) and England ... well, England will probably be the Serbia of the Northwestern Isles until they come to their senses.

fly_agaric · 21-04-2019 9:38pm

Deleted User wrote: »

Could be used as a bargaining chip in the next round talks between the UK & EU to ease back a bit on the Backstop (sufficient to get unionists onboard)to avoid the possibility of having such a disruptive force in the EU parliament.

The EU may see that a small step back may be a price worth paying to avoid months or years of disruptive behaver.

There is a (small) chance that the EU position towards the UK/Brexit could be shifted in ways that would damage Ireland (and the EU itself) after the elections. I don't think any threats from the UK or the UK electing more wreckers could work to cause that. Some larger realignment of the EU parliament and changes in the EU commission composition would be needed.
It would need an exceptional result for all the right wing anti-EU populists around Europe (as well as in the UK) to cause it though, and it looks unlikely at the moment going on polls.

https://ig.ft.com/european-parliament-election-polls/

ancapailldorcha · 22-04-2019 9:52am

Mod: Post deleted. Please don't just paste videos here. Link was broken in any case.

22-04-2019 5:44pm

From this depressing Irish Times article today in Thatcher's hometown of Grantham:

“It’s not just poorer people who voted to leave; it goes right through society. And especially those of us who are actually quite bright. The Remainers go on as if we somehow didn’t know what we were doing.”- Marietta King, chairman of the local Ukip branch and a member of the party’s national executive committee

Eh, Marietta, all the evidence - and I do mean all - very strongly indicates that people who voted for Brexit were anything - and I do mean anything - but "bright". Rees Mogg, Johnson, and Farage, however, were all sufficiently bright enough to position themselves as proponents of a Brexit ideal, rather than take up positions in government where they'd have to try and implement something approaching their ideal - a task which they knew could never be fulfilled. So, yeah, "bright" in that sort of short-term, self-protecting, populist opportunist way. At any rate, put up one, real-world, undisputed "on balance" benefit of Brexit in action. Just one.

The Brexiteers are, to a person it seems, sticking by uttering these "It will be better" claims, even when they know that each and every one of the claims have been blown out of the water by facts/realpolitik/awareness of British dependency. The anti-Brexit crowd are giving arguments, all the Brexiteers can give are assertions that do not stand up to any even superficial examination.

22-04-2019 6:12pm

I don't know if anybody else is following it but The New York Times coverage of Brexit has been consistently damning and acerbic about its abject stupidity. There's almost universal agreement that the Brexiteers are harking back to imperial glory. The comments section of each article has bristled with contempt and derision at the English for what they are doing.

Take this article from the multi-Pulitzer Prize winning Thomas L. Friedman (and then click on the 1791 comments in the right-hand corner for a taster):

Thomas L. Friedman, 'The United Kingdom Has Gone Mad:The problem with holding out for a perfect Brexit plan is that you can’t fix stupid.'

or this:

James Meek, 'Dissecting the Dreams of Brexit Britain'

or this:

Sam Byers, 'Britain is drowning itself in nostalgia'

Also, this very informative article on which EU areas would suffer most from a no-deal Brexit:

Where Europe Would Be Hurt Most by a No-Deal Brexit

22-04-2019 6:22pm

Also, if, as many have said, the quid pro quo of a US deal with Britain is an acceptance of inferior US food standards, how are we going to stop shops/butchers/supermarkets/restaurants in Dublin or Cork from bringing that cheaper product into our food chain from the North? That's a really serious issue, and not just for farmers in the republic. Let Brexit Britain England knock itself out with chlorinated chicken and chlorinated everything else but our food chain's health better not be brought down with them.

backspin. · 23-04-2019 12:59am

Deleted User wrote: »

I don't know if anybody else is following it but The New York Times coverage of Brexit has been consistently damning and acerbic about its abject stupidity. There's almost universal agreement that the Brexiteers are harking back to imperial glory. The comments section of each article has bristled with contempt and derision at the English for what they are doing.

Take this article from the multi-Pulitzer Prize winning Thomas L. Friedman (and then click on the 1791 comments in the right-hand corner for a taster):

Thomas L. Friedman, 'The United Kingdom Has Gone Mad:The problem with holding out for a perfect Brexit plan is that you can’t fix stupid.'

or this:

James Meek, 'Dissecting the Dreams of Brexit Britain'

or this:

Sam Byers, 'Britain is drowning itself in nostalgia'

Also, this very informative article on which EU areas would suffer most from a no-deal Brexit:

Where Europe Would Be Hurt Most by a No-Deal Brexit

A pretty good comment from the NY Times article.

'What I don't get is Ms. May keeps banging on about failing Democracy if Brexit doesn't happen. A vote that was non-binding, that was powered by really huge lies (that the other side admitted almost at once after the vote) and had almost no detail. Further, apparently, Democracy is also shattered if the British people take time to hold a second vote now that there are facts and details. Who knew that British Democracy with such a delicate flower. It managed to survive two world wars, but a second vote on a world-changing-issue is just too much...'

Enzokk · 23-04-2019 8:45am

So Brexit seems to be going well within the Tory party:

https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1120445181969481733

You remember that plan that has been shown to not be feasible or the technology be available and that has been rejected? Let's go for that once more and maybe the EU will compromise again at the 100th last minute this week.

iguana · 23-04-2019 8:52am

murphaph wrote: »

I think the EU's (especially Tusk's) policy of "containment" and damage limitation is the correct one, for now. We must see what sort of people the UK electorate sends to Brussels to represent them (I'm almost certain they will do so) and then react accordingly. If the British electorate send a bunch of Brexit Party MEPs we should give them what they want and show them the door as soon as we are moderately ready. If they have a good turnout and elect mostly pro-EU MEPs who work with us then we should clearly see that as a sign or even a cry for help and look at further delay of Brexit if requested to further assist in its death of natural causes.

Hopefully enough people in the UK actually realise that there is an election for MEPs that they can and should vote on. A totally eye opening thread here on how utterly clueless the British population is about the democracy of the EU.

https://www.mumsnet.com/Talk/eu_referendum_2016_/3557057-eu-elections-how-to-vote

boggerman1 · 23-04-2019 9:01am

iguana wrote: »

Hopefully enough people in the UK actually realise that there is an election for MEPs that they can and should vote on. A totally eye opening thread here on how utterly clueless the British population is about the democracy of the EU.

https://www.mumsnet.com/Talk/eu_referendum_2016_/3557057-eu-elections-how-to-vote

It's fair depressing reading them comments.from not knowing if they had mep's to did I actually vote for EU elections while also voting in the last local elections.the British education system has a lot to answer for,that the rag newspapers' have led to this sort of blindness and stupidity

Tell me how · 23-04-2019 9:04am

Enzokk wrote: »

You remember that plan that has been shown to not be feasible or the technology be available and that has been rejected? Let's go for that once more and maybe the EU will compromise again at the 100th last minute this week.

The events in Derry of last week mean that anyone advocating a frictionless issue free border at this point is blatantly saying that they do not care about the safety or lives of people in the North.

iguana · 23-04-2019 9:30am

boggerman1 wrote: »

It's fair depressing reading them comments.from not knowing if they had mep's to did I actually vote for EU elections while also voting in the last local elections.the British education system has a lot to answer for,that the rag newspapers' have led to this sort of blindness and stupidity

I was open mouthed reading some of the comments. And at least those posters are for the most part people trying to educate themselves now. The sad thing is that I suspect huge swathes of the population are far more clueless and will continue to be.

EKRIUQ · 23-04-2019 12:05pm

Now that they adverted one of the most influential decisions since world war 2, do you think it's just go play out like next summer holidays, back mid September bit of a panic until October 31st and then another extension.

Sam Russell · 23-04-2019 12:24pm

EKRIUQ wrote: »

Now that they adverted one of the most influential decisions since world war 2, do you think it's just go play out like next summer holidays, back mid September bit of a panic until October 31st and then another extension.

I do not think there will be another extension.

Next October, there will be a new Commission, with a new Commission President. Also there will be a new European Parliament, with a new EP President. I am not sure whether Michel Barnier will still be in place. The European Council will be the same though.

So, the players will be different on the EU side. The rules may also be different - for example, will the Brits be asked to leave the room for any discussions re the budget, etc.

I think, depending on the make up of the UK MEPs, it could well be - Revoke or Good bye, since the WA will still not be ratified. Of course, it could well be GE time or 2nd vote.

Seth Brundle · 23-04-2019 12:33pm

EKRIUQ wrote: »

Now that they adverted one of the most influential decisions since world war 2, do you think it's just go play out like next summer holidays, back mid September bit of a panic until October 31st and then another extension.

Well given the tweet above, they are still repeating the same old unsuccesful steps of thinking that they can reopen the negotiations despite knowing that there will be no more negotiations.
The outcome of the EU elections will be interesting.

Harry Palmr · 23-04-2019 12:45pm

Bojo's sister Rachel is standing for ChangeUK in the Euros. So is Gavin Esler, presumably he'll be on gardening leave if he hasn't resigned from the BBC.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/apr/23/change-uk-independent-group-launches-european-election-campaign-brexit

gmisk · 23-04-2019 12:48pm

Harry Palmr wrote: »

Bojo's sister Rachel is standing for ChangeUK in the Euros. So is Gavin Esler, presumably he'll be on gardening leave if he hasn't resigned from the BBC.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/apr/23/change-uk-independent-group-launches-european-election-campaign-brexit

Im pretty sure Esler hasnt worked for the bbc since 2017

Professor Moriarty · 23-04-2019 12:51pm

Harry Palmr wrote: »

Bojo's sister Rachel is standing for ChangeUK in the Euros. So is Gavin Esler, presumably he'll be on gardening leave if he hasn't resigned from the BBC.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/apr/23/change-uk-independent-group-launches-european-election-campaign-brexit

Bojo's brother, Jo (he's still a Tory MP), is campaigning for a second referendum.

reslfj · 23-04-2019 1:07pm

Sam Russell wrote: »

I do not think there will be another extension.

Next October, there will be a new Commission, with a new Commission President. Also there will be a new European Parliament, with a new EP President. I am not sure whether Michel Barnier will still be in place.

The European Council will be the same though.

So, the players will be different on the EU side.

... - Revoke or Good bye, since the WA will still not be ratified.

It's the Council that matters almost everything, when it comes to A50 and an extension. The Council it will not change much (maybe a few new PMs)

But if the UK chooses 'Good bye' it will almost immediately face practical and economical conditions which will force it to ask the EU27 for new negotiations. The UK will have even less cards than it has now.

The conditions in the WA will the be a prerequisite from the EU27 in any negotiations.

The EU27 is not playing games - this will much be a British exercise in saying "Aye Aye" - loud and clear.

WA means WA.

The options for the UK are, as I see them:

Revoke A50
Ratify the WA and get transition
No deal, accept WA terms without transition

Lars

ancapailldorcha · 23-04-2019 1:09pm

The problem with denying an extension is that it effectively means kicking out a member state against its will. If it were the UK's desire to leave then they wouldn't have sought an extension. Denying them an extension effectively means throwing Ireland and Northern Ireland under a bus which the EU can't do. I'm still quite shocked that Macron expended so much political capital to grant only a brief reprieve.

I dearly hope that the Conservatives use this time constructively but my hopes aren't high. I can't see anything changing without at least a general election.

Hurrache · 23-04-2019 1:11pm

Harry Palmr wrote: »

Bojo's sister Rachel is standing for ChangeUK in the Euros. So is Gavin Esler, presumably he'll be on gardening leave if he hasn't resigned from the BBC.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/apr/23/change-uk-independent-group-launches-european-election-campaign-brexit

So is the former Polish Deputy Prime Minister and former minister of finance, Jan Vincent Rostowski.

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

I'm still quite shocked that Macron expended so much political capital to grant only a brief reprieve.

He was far from alone, Verhofstadt has since come out publicly against the granting of the extension period.

listermint · 23-04-2019 1:15pm

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

The problem with denying an extension is that it effectively means kicking out a member state against its will. If it were the UK's desire to leave then they wouldn't have sought an extension. Denying them an extension effectively means throwing Ireland and Northern Ireland under a bus which the EU can't do. I'm still quite shocked that Macron expended so much political capital to grant only a brief reprieve.

I dearly hope that the Conservatives use this time constructively but my hopes aren't high. I can't see anything changing without at least a general election.

We have to disagree on this point.

The UK Triggered Article 50.

briany · 23-04-2019 1:48pm

listermint wrote: »

We have to disagree on this point.

The UK Triggered Article 50.

It was also judged that A50 could be revoked, and obviously it's a legal thing to extend the time limit, because it's been done twice.

On a more human level, it would be unfair to kick the UK out where the majority of its electorate, as things stand, may well prefer to remain, given the 'revelations' (not that they should have been such to anyone studying the matter) of the complications and implications. And if it were that the majority preferred to remain, they'd be getting cut loose due to the ineptitude, bluster and division of their politicians. And that's not something the electorate is really in control of (not within the Brexit timeframe, anyway) because a GE is being staunchly refused.

On a legal level, though, it would be fair to kick the UK out, and that could still well happen if the UK's politicians use the remaining time to twiddle their thumbs and snipe across the aisle.

Strazdas · 23-04-2019 1:51pm

iguana wrote: »

Hopefully enough people in the UK actually realise that there is an election for MEPs that they can and should vote on. A totally eye opening thread here on how utterly clueless the British population is about the democracy of the EU.

https://www.mumsnet.com/Talk/eu_referendum_2016_/3557057-eu-elections-how-to-vote

British media coverage of the EU was virtually non-existent for the last 20 years, other than to suggest it was this undemocratic foreign thing going on in the background that was messing the UK around.

ancapailldorcha · 23-04-2019 1:52pm

listermint wrote: »

We have to disagree on this point.

The UK Triggered Article 50.

2 years ago.

Now we have an extension of 6 months, give or take. The only way we can know the will of the people for sure is a plebiscite which is precisely why May, Johnson, Rees-Mogg & Co. are so opposed to one.

reslfj · 23-04-2019 1:59pm

listermint wrote: »

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

The problem with denying an extension is that it effectively means kicking out a member state against its will....

We have to disagree on this point.

The UK Triggered Article 50.

And the UK got a 7 months A50 extension with a clear message about using "the extra time in the best way possible".

If the UK decides for the cliff - so be it.
"Gegen Dummheit kämpfen Götter selbst vergebens" /Talbot English

The RoI-NI border may suffer a short while. But this will be infinitely better than no backstop on the island of Ireland.

Lars

Silent Running · 23-04-2019 2:20pm

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

2 years ago.

Now we have an extension of 6 months, give or take. The only way we can know the will of the people for sure is a plebiscite which is precisely why May, Johnson, Rees-Mogg & Co. are so opposed to one.

But isn't this just saying that the small Eurosceptic wing of the conservative party are in control of the destiny of the UK?

If the majority of the house of commons wanted a peoples vote it would surely happen.

Carrying on along the path of a no deal Brexit would indicate that they want out and are just looking to throw shade on the EU to appease their voters come the next election. When living becomes harder after a no deal exit, they can say "but the EU threw us out"

Seth Brundle · 23-04-2019 2:27pm

Silent Running wrote: »

But isn't this just saying that the small Eurosceptic wing of the conservative party are in control of the destiny of the UK?

If the majority of the house of commons wanted a peoples vote it would surely happen.

...but currently there isn't really a clear majority in WM who want the same thing.

ancapailldorcha · 23-04-2019 2:31pm

Silent Running wrote: »

But isn't this just saying that the small Eurosceptic wing of the conservative party are in control of the destiny of the UK?

If the majority of the house of commons wanted a peoples vote it would surely happen.

Carrying on along the path of a no deal Brexit would indicate that they want out and are just looking to throw shade on the EU to appease their voters come the next election. When living becomes harder after a no deal exit, they can say "but the EU threw us out"

It is because they are. May has no majority so she's had to buttress her own right wing Eurosceptics with the DUP.

Politicians are as self-interested as anyone else. They don't want no deal Brexit. That's what they want least as evinced by the indicative votes. What they're split on are the other options as the various Remain factions have little to no capacity for cooperation. Also, none of them want to be tarred and feathered as being anti-democratic for the next election.

RobertKK · 23-04-2019 2:35pm

There are idiots and that may not be parliamentary language around here...but there are people of this ilk still talking about the Malthouse compromise. Talking of Nigel Evan MP who was on Sky News.
I mean one would have to be foolish to keep beating a dead and by now rotten horse thinking it somehow has life, given the EU would never accept it.
For some of these people it is like they are unable to understand the real issues and think if they keep saying something, like speaking louder to someone who doesn't understand your language as if it would somehow make it easier to understand.
When something makes no sense because it is senseless, then its time to stop...

Zubeneschamali · 23-04-2019 2:39pm

briany wrote: »

On a more human level, it would be unfair to kick the UK out where the majority of its electorate, as things stand, may well prefer to remain, given the 'revelations' (not that they should have been such to anyone study

On an economic level, it would cost the EU billions of Euros for no benefit whatsoever, apart from removing uncertainty about whether the EU was going to lose billions and replacing it with the certainty that yes, they are.

briany · 23-04-2019 2:39pm

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

It is because they are. May has no majority so she's had to buttress her own right wing Eurosceptics with the DUP.

Politicians are as self-interested as anyone else. They don't want no deal Brexit. That's what they want least as evinced by the indicative votes. What they're split on are the other options as the various Remain factions have little to no capacity for cooperation. Also, none of them want to be tarred and feathered as being anti-democratic for the next election.

The crux of the Brexit farce has been MPs attempting to placate two diametrically opposed sides.

There are two things UK MPs have to realise collectively,

1) They're going to take a licking at the next GE no matter what they do

2) Some things are more important than holding onto your job as an MP

So I would say the MPs should simply vote their conscience on the matter, and let the UK public vote theirs, and let the chips fall as they may.

Leroy42 · 23-04-2019 2:49pm

briany wrote: »

So I would say the MPs should simply vote their conscience on the matter, and let the UK public vote theirs, and let the chips fall as they may.

You are new to this politics game aren't you!:)

Leonard Hofstadter · 23-04-2019 2:54pm

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Bojo's brother, Jo (he's still a Tory MP), is campaigning for a second referendum.

And isn't his father looking to be a Tory MEP (albeit one that still favours remain)?

ancapailldorcha · 23-04-2019 3:02pm

briany wrote: »

The crux of the Brexit farce has been MPs attempting to placate two diametrically opposed sides.

There are two things UK MPs have to realise collectively,

1) They're going to take a licking at the next GE no matter what they do

2) Some things are more important than holding onto your job as an MP

So I would say the MPs should simply vote their conscience on the matter, and let the UK public vote theirs, and let the chips fall as they may.

On your first point, what does it mean to take a licking? Just about the only thing holding the Conservatives together is the prospect of a Socialist Prime Minister. The only thing holding Labour together is their opposition to the Conservatives. Neither party seems popular enough to win a convincing majority. Meanwhile, the only visible and focused party in the land only contests elections in Scotland. First Past the Post means that votes for Change UK and the Lib Dems will be wasted in most seats and that's before you consider that they'll just split each other's votes.

Your second point depends on whether or not you're an MP looking to keep being an MP. I'm sure Ken Clarke would happily ditch his seat if it meant cancelling Brexit. He's sadly in the minority. When I went to the March on the 23rd of March the most important banner I saw was for Conservatives against Brexit. I recall walking past one large central London residence whereupon a stocky, Boris Johnson-esque figure emerged, held his hands up smiling and apologised loudly for Brexit.

The point I am trying to make is that while the Eurosceptics might only be a minority, they are basically running the show. The threat of being outed as anti-democratic is very real to many MP's. Then you have the likes of Nigel Farage wittering on about putting "the fear of God" into them to say nothing of a recent foiled far right assassination attempt on Labour MP Rosie Cooper (Source).

Until more Tories are brave enough to come out as anti-Brexit then it looks like the UK's membership of the EU continues only at Emmanuel Macron's pleasure.

briany · 23-04-2019 3:21pm

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

On your first point, what does it mean to take a licking? Just about the only thing holding the Conservatives together is the prospect of a Socialist Prime Minister. The only thing holding Labour together is their opposition to the Conservatives. Neither party seems popular enough to win a convincing majority. Meanwhile, the only visible and focused party in the land only contests elections in Scotland. First Past the Post means that votes for Change UK and the Lib Dems will be wasted in most seats and that's before you consider that they'll just split each other's votes.

Your second point depends on whether or not you're an MP looking to keep being an MP. I'm sure Ken Clarke would happily ditch his seat if it meant cancelling Brexit. He's sadly in the minority. When I went to the March on the 23rd of March the most important banner I saw was for Conservatives against Brexit. I recall walking past one large central London residence whereupon a stocky, Boris Johnson-esque figure emerged, held his hands up smiling and apologised loudly for Brexit.

The point I am trying to make is that while the Eurosceptics might only be a minority, they are basically running the show. The threat of being outed as anti-democratic is very real to many MP's. Then you have the likes of Nigel Farage wittering on about putting "the fear of God" into them to say nothing of a recent foiled far right assassination attempt on Labour MP Rosie Cooper (Source).

Until more Tories are brave enough to come out as anti-Brexit then it looks like the UK's membership of the EU continues only at Emmanuel Macron's pleasure.

What I'm talking about in 'taking a licking' is that if the UK goes Remain or hard Brexit, they're going to face anger and hostility from around one half of the electorate. If the UK even goes soft Brexit, you're going to have anger and hostility from one half of either half. It obviously won't be that every MP is going to get voted out of office, but the ones who do, I expect it to happen with extra vociferousness. That anti-democratic thing goes both ways, by either trying to stifle the result of the 2016 ref, or prevent a new one from happening, and it's a brush that will be used to tar, liberally.

I realise that not every MP is desperately trying to cling onto their job, but I don't think that country above seat & party is the prevailing mindset either. Good eggs like Ken Clarke aren't enough on this one. If the UK parliament as a whole is happy to let Farage and the ERG cow them as being anti-democratic, then that ultimately falls on their own shoulders.

ancapailldorcha · 23-04-2019 3:44pm

briany wrote: »

What I'm talking about in 'taking a licking' is that if the UK goes Remain or hard Brexit, they're going to face anger and hostility from around one half of the electorate. If the UK even goes soft Brexit, you're going to have anger and hostility from one half of either half. It obviously won't be that every MP is going to get voted out of office, but the ones who do, I expect it to happen with extra vociferousness. That anti-democratic thing goes both ways, by either trying to stifle the result of the 2016 ref, or prevent a new one from happening, and it's a brush that will be used to tar, liberally.

I realise that not every MP is desperately trying to cling onto their job, but I don't think that country above seat & party is the prevailing mindset either. Good eggs like Ken Clarke aren't enough on this one. If the UK parliament as a whole is happy to let Farage and the ERG cow them as being anti-democratic, then that ultimately falls on their own shoulders.

I'd say that a no deal Brexit will leave both sides being rather hostile and aggressive. For that reason alone, it'd be better to have the referendum sooner rather than later so the whole thing can be aborted.

As much as I want to stay in, soft Brexit is objectively inferior to full EU membership which leads the Remain side to crap all over it when they should look at taking it seriously.

I have no idea how a GE might pan out. Polls are of limited use at the moment as they don't count manifestos and policy commitments.

LeinsterDub · 23-04-2019 5:31pm

https://twitter.com/BethRigby/status/1120723151892221953

They really want that second vote! Owe wait it's for a second attempt at May's head. The corrupt and dishonest vote of nearly 3 years ago must be respected

Headshot · 23-04-2019 6:14pm

LeinsterDub wrote: »

https://twitter.com/BethRigby/status/1120723151892221953

They really want that second vote! Owe wait it's for a second attempt at May's head. The corrupt and dishonest vote of nearly 3 years ago must be respected

ah sure the public cannot have a 2nd vote though

such hypocrisy but is not a surprise though

briany · 23-04-2019 6:42pm

Headshot wrote: »

ah sure the public cannot have a 2nd vote though

such hypocrisy but is not a surprise though

The Remain wing of the party should stipulate that they'll help push a motion of no-confidence through if the Leave wing vote in favour of a 2nd referendum.

judeboy101 · 23-04-2019 7:54pm

Looks like TM will walk by the 31st of May

https://www.rte.ie/news/world/2019/0423/1045118-trump-uk-visit/

LeinsterDub · 23-04-2019 8:01pm

judeboy101 wrote: »

Looks like TM will walk by the 31st of May

https://www.rte.ie/news/world/2019/0423/1045118-trump-uk-visit/

Where are you getting that from?

LeinsterDub · 23-04-2019 8:03pm

briany wrote: »

The Remain wing of the party should stipulate that they'll help push a motion of no-confidence through if the Leave wing vote in favour of a 2nd referendum.

The leavers would never agree to that. They are terrified they'll not be able to sell the same pack of lies again

briany · 23-04-2019 8:20pm

LeinsterDub wrote: »

The leavers would never agree to that. They are terrified they'll not be able to sell the same pack of lies again

Well then, they shouldn't get a second no-confidence vote. If they fail to acknowledge the hypocrisy of their attitude to a second NC vote vs a second ref, then they should at best get no change in the current scenario and political momentum.

Brexit discussion thread VIII (Please read OP before posting)

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