Brexit discussion thread XIII (Please read OP before posting)

fash · 05-12-2020 5:00am

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

The demands on fishing and the level playing field go way beyond what any self governing country would be expected to accept.

That's the simple reality of the situation.

EU needs to accept the UK is an independent country.

Oh please - UK's demands are outrageous - give the UK the level of access it wants without methods to ensure they stick to the rules and they renege on bits of the deal at will.
Give them that access without ratchet clauses and the EU can never again increase environmental protection or worker rights without handing a competitive advantage to UK, which has the stated aim of using any advantage to break up the EU.

Fish (I heard recently the same size as the UK's door lock and hinge market) is only ever a deliberate emotive topic to get the more gullible Brexiters going: the EU using it to give an obvious concession to the UK to give them a victory to wave to the particularly gullible and not very bright among the Brexiters (of which they are a lot admittedly), the UK to wave around as a pretend reason not to do a deal.

fash · 05-12-2020 5:15am

peter kern wrote: »

i can not remember many important things in europe that were not decided past deadline at 3 o clock am.

Internal matters where there is give and take and horse trading. That doesn't happen with external relations - which the UK now seeks. In reality this is all just part of the UK government's preferred theatrics to sell the deal or no deal to its followers. It is worth considering the economic cost of this strategy on the UK economy in particular (whose interests they nominally represent).

05-12-2020 5:54am

jelem wrote: »

the irish economists are government friendly, take note of that.
no deal and eu will demand ireland places tarrifs and ireland has
only one option which is leave eu.

That wouldn't solve the problem at all. It would just reinforce it.

fash · 05-12-2020 7:58am

[Deleted User] wrote: »

That wouldn't solve the problem at all. It would just reinforce it.

While putting Ireland at the tender mercies of the UK Tory government.
Ask Pat Finucane's wife what that is like.

WHL · 05-12-2020 11:15am

jelem wrote: »

recent media showed uk setup for haulage delays "lorry parks etc." what has the irish government done?.
i would have expected to see announced over rte how wexford and waterford have been rebuilt\organised
for traffic and more container and transport shipments but only heard some minor words.

Haven’t we set up more direct links to France so Irish truck drivers can get to the continent without queues and paperwork. Much better option that building lorry parks

Leroy42 · 05-12-2020 11:18am

I think a deal is very close, but the deal was never going to be agreed by Barnier and Frost. It needs the last minute intervention of Johnson and VdL to look like it was hammered out despite the bureaucrats.

If Frost agreed a deal it would be known as Frosts deal and immediately you have attacks from MRS decrying it.

A meeting today where a deal will be hammered out, although already agreed, will give Johnson the appearance of sorting it all out. The narrative that Johnson took the bull by the horns and forced the EU to finally accept UK sovereignty .

Nothing will actually be changed in the call. Its all optics. And both the EU and UK know that optics only really matter in the UK. EU will play along.

Much like the WA which was sold as a masterclass by Johnson. Turned out it was nothing of the sort.

They may even drag it out over a week or so. Giving the impression that the EU needs time to get the countries to agree. VdL will 'do her best and hopefully she can persuade everyone to accept it this deal or the UK walks away ( to where nobody seems to know).

Cue much grandstanding and merriment in the UK can Brexit has been delivered and UK got one over them over there.

Meanwhile custom checks, lack of FoM, loss of investment etc etc slowly play out in the UK while the EU support fishermen and Irish farmers and move on to other issued

Seth Brundle · 05-12-2020 11:28am

^^^
There is no benefit to the EU to take part in that charade

Enzokk · 05-12-2020 11:35am

Leroy42 wrote: »

I think a deal is very close, but the deal was never going to be agreed by Barnier and Frost. It needs the last minute intervention of Johnson and VdL to look like it was hammered out despite the bureaucrats.

If Frost agreed a deal it would be known as Frosts deal and immediately you have attacks from MRS decrying it.

A meeting today where a deal will be hammered out, although already agreed, will give Johnson the appearance of sorting it all out. The narrative that Johnson took the bull by the horns and forced the EU to finally accept UK sovereignty .

Nothing will actually be changed in the call. Its all optics. And both the EU and UK know that optics only really matter in the UK. EU will play along.

Much like the WA which was sold as a masterclass by Johnson. Turned out it was nothing of the sort.

They may even drag it out over a week or so. Giving the impression that the EU needs time to get the countries to agree. VdL will 'do her best and hopefully she can persuade everyone to accept it this deal or the UK walks away ( to where nobody seems to know).

Cue much grandstanding and merriment in the UK can Brexit has been delivered and UK got one over them over there.

Meanwhile custom checks, lack of FoM, loss of investment etc etc slowly play out in the UK while the EU support fishermen and Irish farmers and move on to other issued

I don't know, Barnier has been saying all along that they are far apart on fisheries, LPF and governance and this is still the areas that cannot be agreed. Why carry on with the illusion about being far apart? I mean to go along with the notion that the deal is already agreed but this is all theater, what is in it for the EU? I get the benefit for the UK but the EU gains nothing and if anything you can have countries veto the deal because of this charade.

Also, this twitter thread spells it out almost exactly as it is happening right now. It was written more than a week ago as well so no captain hindsight here,

https://twitter.com/DmitryOpines/status/1332385160646504450?s=20

https://twitter.com/DmitryOpines/status/1332385163259621380?s=20

https://twitter.com/DmitryOpines/status/1332385165440675841?s=20

https://twitter.com/DmitryOpines/status/1332385167705567234?s=20

https://twitter.com/DmitryOpines/status/1332385169962131464?s=20

I think a deal gets done, because the UK needs one desperately and not any other reason.

Gerry T · 05-12-2020 11:39am

jelem wrote:

the irish economists are government friendly, take note of that. no deal and eu will demand ireland places tarrifs and ireland has only one option which is leave eu. borris only got elected as he was only one in uk eyes whom will get it done. the uk will not give away and will not take any notice of the main arguers france. it will be a "hidden eu deal" or no deal as eu is basically france and germany. face facts if eu applies tarrifs and causes delay at ports then uk will do same and ireland is sunk. recent media showed uk setup for haulage delays "lorry parks etc." what has the irish government done?. i would have expected to see announced over rte how wexford and waterford have been rebuilt\organised for traffic and more container and transport shipments but only heard some minor words.

The EU won't demand anything, IRL are very happy EU members and will apply tariffs etc without any need of EU direction.
BJ got elected on a bed of lies, still the people (a proportion of) support him blindly, that in its self is baffling but whats worse is the UK media don't call it out.
Saying the EU is France & Germany is a typical Brexiteer mindset, you don't seem to grasp the concept where the much larger nations will work alongside the smaller ones, together we are all stronger. Is it the empire you long for and blinds you to only see the larger nation controlling the smaller.
Delays at ports is caused by the UK, the UK is fully aware of how global trade works. By leaving the CU/SM the borders go up and checks start, the UK can only blame itself for that happening to UK shipments to the EU.
As for what have the Irish done since 2016, well off the top of my head:
We reduced our exports to the UK from over 20% to about 10%.
We have 2 of the largest RORO ships in the world now coming to IRL, the mv celien and its sister ship. DFDS has 2 sailings a day now to Dunkirk, Dublin, Cork and Waterford ports have had major works done to allow this to happen. IRL has the capacity to ship direct to/from the mainland 80% of what we need/use and that was before the DFDS routes were announced, using the UK as a landbridge will still be used by some but its redundant.
With a lot of Govt support, seminars, funding local business have been able to remodel their business, for example in construction most companies have switched from UK suppliers to EU ones, taking out the stg currency risk. I know one developer that has gone direct to window, bathroom pods & granite suppliers in the EU where pre 2016 they would have been told to "talk to the UK rep".
Now what has the UK done:
Its kent lorry park won't be ready till march or April because of a failure to get material from UK suppliers.
The 50,000 customs officials required aren't employed or trained.
The Japan deal has more restrictive state aide provisions than what the EU are looking for, but the sovereign UK could never agree.
The IMB is back with Johnson and if he presses ahead with his clauses that breach the GFA and WA then the UK will break international law and will see a much stronger EU and any deal is gone, just like the USA deal will be.
Patel's new immigration rules is setting the UK crop producers to fail during 2021 picking season, its looking like herself and Johnson have a cunning plan to get the lazy UK off the dole and into the fields, Chairman Mao would be proud, we just need a little blue book.

Leroy42 · 05-12-2020 11:51am

Seth Brundle wrote: »

^^^
There is no benefit to the EU to take part in that charade

To get the deal done. I think the EU learnt a valuable lesson dealingvwith TM. A WA was agreed then, but it was torn apart in the UK because they felt the UK had accepted an EU deal.

So with the actual WA agreement they allowed the optics that Johnson had got the deal done, when in reality nothing really had changed.

But by playing the game the EU got what it wanted.

Enzokk · 05-12-2020 11:57am

Leroy42 wrote: »

To get the deal done. I think the EU learnt a valuable lesson dealingvwith TM. A WA was agreed then, but it was torn apart in the UK because they felt the UK had accepted an EU deal.

So with the actual WA agreement they allowed the optics that Johnson had got the deal done, when in reality nothing really had changed.

But by playing the game the EU got what it wanted.

Still, I also don't see the need for the EU to play this game right now. There are bigger things for the EU and the Covid bailout package will take precedence. This is just a FTA that is being agreed, nothing more or less. Yes the impact is bigger than any other FTA, but this is not the WA which was a FTA and a lot more. By removing the WA from the equation it just isn't that big of a deal for the EU and there is no reason to play silly games to appease the Daily Mail readers.

peter kern · 05-12-2020 11:59am

CelticRambler wrote: »

Matters concerning equal members, yes ; but deals with third countries are done on the basis of extended negotiations over years, not months, so there's no reason for anyone to stay up till silly-o'clock in the morning. And they don't.

of course the difference is there is a deadline in this negotions. the uk is the 3rd most important trading partner of the eu, and given how much more they are offereing in free movement etc than the current 4th most important trading partner to the eu switzerland, i am pretty sure they will stay up till the last hour. and i guess at the end of the day northern ireland kind of forces them much more to get a deal . So i do not think anybody from eu is going to walk away until they have tried everything , as irleand and germany will make sure they wont.
my 2 cent

looksee · 05-12-2020 12:22pm

So an awkward but significant player in the golf club decides he doesn't like the committee, and the only solution is to leave the club. He is such a good player that another club - further away, but no problem - will be delighted to take him on.

The club says ok, see you around.

The member says, you know, I would be glad to give you my expertise and even the kudos of having me still connected to the club, in exchange for say, using the club house when it suits me, playing the odd round, you know, nothing formal but it would suit us both.

The committee says, well yes, you've been useful and know the ropes, but of course you wouldn't be able to use the course at weekends, and you would not have members privileges in the clubhouse, but ok, we can maybe work something out with you on visitor status.

Member says, well I was thinking of something more inclusive, Special Member maybe, with use of all facilities and time slots, but without actually, you know, paying the dues or actual commitment, I was thinking I would be able to play for that club over there when I wish, kind of take my pick of the bits of each club that suits me. I am after all a very important player and you do owe me.

Club says - you are not as good (or as popular) as you think you are, and on balance we can manage without you rather than create a whole new rule book just for you. Nah, off you go, good luck!

Capt'n Midnight · 05-12-2020 12:37pm

Infini wrote: »

Rubbish and exactly the kind of factless silliness that has the UK on the road to breakup. The UK is replacable to Ireland we have a much larger market on the Continent to build on if they wish to cut off their nose to spite their face in the end.

At independence something like 96% of our exports went to the UK. Now it's 1% to NI and only 7-8% go the rest of the UK.

A similar % to the tariffs UK exports will face if there isn't a trade deal.

If the UK exporters are expected to survive tariffs then Irish exporters could be expected to survive the complete disappearance of the UK.

Except I'd expect it would be easier for Irish exporters to find alternative markets. Because UK exports did NOT increase when Sterling dropped.

Capt'n Midnight · 05-12-2020 1:12pm

looksee wrote: »

He is such a good player that another club - further away, but no problem - will be delighted to take him on.

Except no other club has, except to take their money.

How many UK trade deals are better than the existing EU deal ? Because that was the whole point of Brexit wasn't it ?

And remember that if the UK had stayed in the EU it could have influenced those deals. So a deal that is only as good as EU has done since Brexit is as step down behind what they could have had by remaining.

How many international trade have been done since the start of Brexit that the UK hasn't been able to replicate or join ? Look at the Pacific area.

And there's the deal with the Faroe Islands.
After three years (oh the timing) of construction they are opening a new roundabout.

It's in a tunnel under the sea.

And the UK and Faroe islands are back at the negotiating table over Fishing.

“The first test for the framework will be the December negotiation where we will be looking for a significant reduction in the Faroese share of the Mackerel catch.”

declanflynn · 05-12-2020 1:17pm

looksee wrote: »

So an awkward but significant player in the golf club decides he doesn't like the committee, and the only solution is to leave the club. He is such a good player that another club - further away, but no problem - will be delighted to take him on.

The club says ok, see you around.

The member says, you know, I would be glad to give you my expertise and even the kudos of having me still connected to the club, in exchange for say, using the club house when it suits me, playing the odd round, you know, nothing formal but it would suit us both.

The committee says, well yes, you've been useful and know the ropes, but of course you wouldn't be able to use the course at weekends, and you would not have members privileges in the clubhouse, but ok, we can maybe work something out with you on visitor status.

Member says, well I was thinking of something more inclusive, Special Member maybe, with use of all facilities and time slots, but without actually, you know, paying the dues or actual commitment, I was thinking I would be able to play for that club over there when I wish, kind of take my pick of the bits of each club that suits me. I am after all a very important player and you do owe me.

Club says - you are not as good (or as popular) as you think you are, and on balance we can manage without you rather than create a whole new rule book just for you. Nah, off you go, good luck!

Agree totally
Well written

jm08 · 05-12-2020 1:45pm

Interesting to see the change in Ireland's exports in the last couple of years. US is still Ireland's biggest export market, but Belgium and Germany are 2nd and 3rd. Exports to China have increased by 21.48% to nearly 8 billion and 6.46% of Ireland's total exports.
https://newsaf.cgtn.com/news/2020-11-18/Ireland-s-exports-to-China-up-nearly-22-percent-in-first-nine-months-Vvchsfy2T6/index.html

And best of all, Ireland is the world's fastest growing economies and looks set to actually have increased GDP by about 2%. Thank God for tech and pharma which are pandemic proof.
https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/ireland-on-course-to-be-fastest-growing-economy-in-world-in-2020-1.4427464

CelticRambler · 05-12-2020 2:18pm

peter kern wrote: »

of course the difference is there is a deadline in this negotions. the uk is the 3rd most important trading partner of the eu, and given how much more they are offereing in free movement etc than the current 4th most important trading partner to the eu switzerland, i am pretty sure they will stay up till the last hour.

Not sure what you're saying regarding Free Movement, because the Swiss offer way more "free movement" than the UK is happy with ...

In any case, the only deadline in this case is the one that affects GB and British citizens. For the EU, life goes on pretty much as before - an internal market of 450m, trade deals with dozens of third countries and other trading blocs, and - most importantly of all - the probability of continuing to export to GB exactly as we have done before, because GB needs what they buy from us and are in no position to apply the checks and tariffs mandated by WTO due to their own failure to effectively plan and prepare.

The bulk of GB exports to the EU are made up of financial services, which the EU is actively seeking to replicate within the Single Market. In the meantime, now that GB is a third country, any financial services that it offers have the same standing as those offered by Switzerland, the US or Singapore, so Brexit has inadvertently offered us less of a reason to stick with the City.

Enzokk · 05-12-2020 4:49pm

Not sure if this is an update on the talks between Barnier and Frost, or from the phone call,

https://twitter.com/tconnellyRTE/status/1335248494567755776?s=20

https://twitter.com/tconnellyRTE/status/1335248497545719808?s=20

So basically either no-deal if this is from the call between VDL and Johnson or a major climb down from either side to get a deal.

Strazdas · 05-12-2020 5:47pm

Enzokk wrote: »

Not sure if this is an update on the talks between Barnier and Frost, or from the phone call,

https://twitter.com/tconnellyRTE/status/1335248494567755776?s=20

https://twitter.com/tconnellyRTE/status/1335248497545719808?s=20

So basically either no-deal if this is from the call between VDL and Johnson or a major climb down from either side to get a deal.

I'd guess this is from yesterday's talks (Tony getting the info this afternoon).

Looks like the only way out of the impasse is a big climb down on all of the above from Johnson (the EU mostly cannot budge).

Infini · 05-12-2020 6:26pm

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

At independence something like 96% of our exports went to the UK. Now it's 1% to NI and only 7-8% go the rest of the UK.

A similar % to the tariffs UK exports will face if there isn't a trade deal.

If the UK exporters are expected to survive tariffs then Irish exporters could be expected to survive the complete disappearance of the UK.

Except I'd expect it would be easier for Irish exporters to find alternative markets. Because UK exports did NOT increase when Sterling dropped.

Britain Implement's Tariffs on Beef Imports from Ireland.

Ireland and Europe Impliment Tariffs on British Imports.

Irish Beef replaces all of Britain's Shelf Space in Europe.

Irish Beef replaces all of Britain's Shelf Space in Europe. :pac:

Infini · 05-12-2020 6:30pm

Enzokk wrote: »

Not sure if this is an update on the talks between Barnier and Frost, or from the phone call,

https://twitter.com/tconnellyRTE/status/1335248494567755776?s=20

https://twitter.com/tconnellyRTE/status/1335248497545719808?s=20

So basically either no-deal if this is from the call between VDL and Johnson or a major climb down from either side to get a deal.

Honestly it's either Boris backs down or walks away IMO. Their choice. If their sovereignty is that important to them there's the door. What they waiting for? If they dont wish to play by the rule's they aren't entitled to anything.

The thing is no matter what they do the EU just has to stick to it's principals and wait it out. If Boris want's to make a mess he can make a mess but expect even less favourable terms if they come crawling back desperate for a deal after doing so much damage.

swampgas · 05-12-2020 6:34pm

It might suit both sides politically for a no-deal exit on Jan 1st.

Neither side wants to compromise too much, or be seen to compromise too much, on core principles. The EU would prefer a deal but not if it gives the impression that the UK has "won" by getting too advantageous a deal.

I don't suppose the EU will even want to give the UK a token victory (on fish for example) for the sake of practical advantages. The EU is a political [peace] project at heart, and any deal that appears to show weakness by the EU in the face of UK brinkmanship is not good for EU morale, and could weaken the EU project in the long run. The UK say Brexit is about more than economics, they should recognise that this has always been the case for the EU.

Sometimes a deal can't be done because the two sides have mutually incompatible requirements. I suspect Johnson would prefer a "hard man" exit rather than one where he appears to have folded. His entire legacy is hanging on this. And perhaps there are those in the EU that would prefer to show the UK the door rather than reward their atrocious behaviour with anything more than the bare minimum they deserve to get.

The next few days or weeks will determine the nature of the future relationship between the EU and UK. If the EU refuse to compromise now, the UK will have no illusions about what the EU's position will be later. If the EU are seen to have compromised at the last minute, it could be seen as a green light for further UK belligerence and brinkmanship.

Personally I think no deal is the best option for the long term. It's the one that crystalises the fact that the core princples of the EU will not be diluted to satisfy UK exceptionalism.

An Ciarraioch · 05-12-2020 6:57pm

VdL will make a televised statement at 6 - presumably either a no-deal announcement, or an extension, given today's events?

Kermit.de.frog · 05-12-2020 6:58pm

Nothing from Johnson?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O5aGME8YVR8

Professor Moriarty · 05-12-2020 7:00pm

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

VdL will make a televised statement at 6 - presumably either a no-deal announcement, or an extension, given today's events?

Or negotiations will be intensified because it is so important that blah blah...

declanflynn · 05-12-2020 7:01pm

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Nothing from Johnson?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O5aGME8YVR8

It takes a while to word a surrender speech

Jizique · 05-12-2020 7:03pm

declanflynn wrote: »

It takes a while to word a surrender speech

Lundi soir?
Monday evening?
Half watching match but caught this bit

An Ciarraioch · 05-12-2020 7:08pm

Vous êtes d'accord!

https://twitter.com/vonderleyen/status/1335283257492066306

Kermit.de.frog · 05-12-2020 7:09pm

UK to reintroduce Internal Market Bill to the Commons on Monday.

Will Britain still have the offending clauses in there?

Or will they delay it?

Because they say they are going to speak Monday so that means that bill may be introduced before that.

Brexit discussion thread XIII (Please read OP before posting)

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