Scottish Parliament rejects Brexit

16-05-2018 11:17am

Subcomandante Marcos wrote: »

I think it's fairly obvious that I was pointing out that British car production relies on access to the single market, and last time I looked at a map or demographic data Ireland (4.5 odd million people) with it's right hand driver cars had a much, much smaller market for Britain to sell to than the rest of the single market (450 odd million people, largest single market on the planet, without or without the UK) with it's left hand drive cars, so I chose to focus on the left hand drive ones, because basic economics.

it is a global market. 50% of cars exported from the UK don't go to the EU, so there is no problem exporting to China, Japan, the US etc.

the automotive industry is far too important for the economies of all the major countries in europe for the issue of duty not to be resolved.

16-05-2018 11:21am

Aegir wrote: »

it is a global market. 50% of cars exported from the UK don't go to the EU, so there is no problem exporting to China, Japan, the US etc.

the automotive industry is far too important for the economies of all the major countries in europe for the issue of duty not to be resolved.

Apart from the total lack of trade deals.

dr.fuzzenstein · 16-05-2018 11:26am

ThinkProgress wrote: »

The UK will exit the EU... they will begin to flourish outside the EU straight-jacket. Scotland may or may not have a future independence referendum, but with the UK economy flying high post Brexit... a yes vote would probably be even less likely than before!

Billy86 wrote: »

In what ways, exactly? As in what industries will flourish and for what reasons, post Brexit?

It's underpants economics by the Brexiteers.

Step 1: Brexit
Step 2: ?
Step 3: Profit!

That is the entire whitepaper for Brexit right there.
It is sad that nowadays trolls and morons get to decide whatever agenda suits them against all sense, reason, reality and facts. Even if they are damaging the nation to "prove" a point that is idiotic, misguided or even insane.
It really is cutting off your nose to spite your face.
It shows in their arguments. When all Brexit arguments get turned into utter mincemeat in any discussion, the retort is a hurt "you have to respect our decisison!"
Well, no. The old adage of "You MUST respect other people's opinions!" is bollocks. If your opinion is that the earth is flat, Obama is a lizard, Trump is the greatest President that ever lived and that Brexit is a financially sound idea, you deserve to be ridiculed and laughed at.

Avatar MIA wrote: »

Brexit is a clever plan by the Aristo Tories, they'll see the UK economy plummet and will be able to rejoin the EU with the UK being Net beneficiaries. :pac:

Well, I stand corrected, we have a valid reason for Brexit!
I'd put money on that happening.

16-05-2018 11:29am

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Thin end of the wedge.

They are hiring in Dublin and will fire in London.

Can't have negative publicity.

there seems to be a real belief that Dublin is to become the new London. it simply isn't going to happen.

Goldman Sachs, for example, chose Dublin as its new eu base and is moving 20 jobs here. They currently employ over 5,000 in the UK.

JP Morgan are potentially doubling their Dublin office, with up to an additional 500 staff. They currently employ 16,000 people in the UK.

Yeah, it's great news for Ireland to be chosen, but you have to get it into perspective. The early predictions of 100,000 jobs going in London is now estimated to be closer to 10,000. A lot, especially if you are one of the 10,000, but it isn't the seismic shift people were forecasting.

RobertKK · 16-05-2018 11:34am

Aegir wrote: »

there seems to be a real belief that Dublin is to become the new London. it simply isn't going to happen.

Goldman Sachs, for example, chose Dublin as its new eu base and is moving 20 jobs here. They currently employ over 5,000 in the UK.

JP Morgan are potentially doubling their Dublin office, with up to an additional 500 staff. They currently employ 16,000 people in the UK.

Yeah, it's great news for Ireland to be chosen, but you have to get it into perspective. The early predictions of 100,000 jobs going in London is now estimated to be closer to 10,000. A lot, especially if you are one of the 10,000, but it isn't the seismic shift people were forecasting.

But it is a leak of jobs from London that has started and possibly will continue for many years.

Larbre34 · 16-05-2018 11:43am

Aegir wrote: »

it is a global market. 50% of cars exported from the UK don't go to the EU, so there is no problem exporting to China, Japan, the US etc.

the automotive industry is far too important for the economies of all the major countries in europe for the issue of duty not to be resolved.

Yes but you have to look at the totality of the equation. By your own stat, 50% of UK made cars exported DO go to the EU

Percentage of German made car exports that go to the UK? 14%........(the figures are lower for French, Italian, Spanish, Czech and Swedish car companies)

Now i think an export market could absorb a drop of 14% with some pain and reorganisation, but 50%? 50 is existential territory

Also, vitally, ALL the mass producers of cars in the UK are foreign owned, even the legacy Brit brands of Vauxhall, Jaguar-Land Rover, Bentley and Rolls Royce!

One of these days, the Brexiteers will wake up to the facts of who holds all the cards in this thing, i just hope for the ordinary workers of the UK, whose lives are being pawned by a fewTory egotists, that its not too late

Cee-Jay-Cee · 16-05-2018 11:47am

Fann Linn wrote: »

Might upset a few Rangers fans.

Somehow I don't think Rangers fans are very politically aware.

16-05-2018 12:02pm

Larbre34 wrote: »

Yes but you have to look at the totality of the equation. By your own stat, 50% of UK made cars exported DO go to the EU

Percentage of German made car exports that go to the UK? 14%........(the figures are lower for French, Italian, Spanish, Czech and Swedish car companies)

you miss my point. There is no reason why exporting cars to the eu post Brexit needs to be any harder than it is to currently export cars to China or the US

Larbre34 wrote: »

Now i think an export market could absorb a drop of 14% with some pain and reorganisation, but 50%? 50 is existential territory

Is there a war on? why should either party go through any pain, why not just enter in to an agreement on the import/export of cars?

Larbre34 wrote: »

Also, vitally, ALL the mass producers of cars in the UK are foreign owned, even the legacy Brit brands of Vauxhall, Jaguar-Land Rover, Bentley and Rolls Royce!

why is that vital? there is a lot more to a company than who owns the shares, unless you consider Guinness to be an English beer

Kermit.de.frog · 16-05-2018 12:17pm

Aegir wrote: »

there seems to be a real belief that Dublin is to become the new London. it simply isn't going to happen.

Goldman Sachs, for example, chose Dublin as its new eu base and is moving 20 jobs here. They currently employ over 5,000 in the UK.

JP Morgan are potentially doubling their Dublin office, with up to an additional 500 staff. They currently employ 16,000 people in the UK.

Yeah, it's great news for Ireland to be chosen, but you have to get it into perspective. The early predictions of 100,000 jobs going in London is now estimated to be closer to 10,000. A lot, especially if you are one of the 10,000, but it isn't the seismic shift people were forecasting.

You don't get it. Reuters are not going to fire 5,000 staff in London. The negative publicity is not worth it.

Again it is thin end of the wedge for all these moves. You can not run all your forward derivatives from Dublin and have skeleton staff. You need a lot of traders and staff. They will be hired in Dublin.

What they say is no one will move from London.

Have to focus on the language.

Google started with 10 people in Dublin.

I rest my case.

16-05-2018 12:30pm

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

You don't get it. Reuters are not going to fire 5,000 staff in London. The negative publicity is not worth it.

Again it is thin end of the wedge for all these moves. You can not run all your forward derivatives from Dublin and have skeleton staff. You need a lot of traders and staff. They will be hired in Dublin.

What they say is no one will move from London.

Have to focus on the language.

Google started with 10 people in Dublin.

I rest my case.

what, you think Reuters are actually going to hire 5000 people in Dublin?

ain't.gonna.happen

Avatar MIA · 16-05-2018 12:34pm

Traders will still work in London while London has the advantage on internet speeds. But, should Dublin get the same or better internet connection...

storker · 16-05-2018 12:41pm

May should have offered deep fried Brexit.

16-05-2018 12:42pm

Avatar MIA wrote: »

Traders will still work in London while London has the advantage on internet speeds. But, should Dublin get the same or better internet connection...

its got nothing to do with Internet speeds.

To put it simply, Dublin isn't London.

Shenshen · 16-05-2018 12:53pm

Aegir wrote: »

its got nothing to do with Internet speeds.

To put it simply, Dublin isn't London.

And London isn't Frankfurt.
And Frankfurt isn't Paris.
And Paris isn't Amsterdam...

All of these places have seen an increase of jobs that had previously been located in - London. And that's before Brexit even happening.

If you're only looking at the companies that are moving to Dublin, you're easily missing three quarters of what's currently happening. London was very handy for a centralised, big operation. There isn't really any other single location within Europe to match that. So companies will spread operations more evenly. Better for their reputation, better for their access to customers, better for getting talent and at the same time keeping costs down.

And no, no company is going to be daft enough to fire all their UK staff and re-hire somewhere else. Reputational damage is one thing, aside from the cost of redundancy you also need people to train in those new hires, make sure things keep ticking over.
What they'll do is simply not re-hire in the UK. Average attrition is usually around the 25% - 30% mark, they can downsize in one location to close to 0 within 4 - 5 years without having to "fire" a single person.

Kermit.de.frog · 16-05-2018 12:59pm

Avatar MIA wrote: »

Traders will still work in London while London has the advantage on internet speeds. But, should Dublin get the same or better internet connection...

They can't. Passporting is going for Britain in to the EU. They have to do it from Dublin.

Kermit.de.frog · 16-05-2018 1:01pm

Aegir wrote: »

what, you think Reuters are actually going to hire 5000 people in Dublin?

ain't.gonna.happen

Why not? What are the London employees going to do with 85% of trades made elsewhere?

Well?

16-05-2018 1:03pm

Shenshen wrote: »

And London isn't Frankfurt.
And Frankfurt isn't Paris.
And Paris isn't Amsterdam...

All of these places have seen an increase of jobs that had previously been located in - London. And that's before Brexit even happening.

they have, yes, but no where near the scale expected. They haven't seen a mass exodus of the high paid jobs either, it has been mostly transactional. The sales people need to be near the traders and the traders want to be near each other, which is London. The vast majority of the business done in London is with other companies based in London. There is no point moving all your sales people to Frankfurt, if you clients are going to Paris.

Shenshen wrote: »

If you're only looking at the companies that are moving to Dublin, you're easily missing three quarters of what's currently happening. London was very handy for a centralised, big operation. There isn't really any other single location within Europe to match that. So companies will spread operations more evenly. Better for their reputation, better for their access to customers, better for getting talent and at the same time keeping costs down.

no company is moving to Dublin, they are simply opening relatively small offices here to service the euro market. That's all.

Shenshen wrote: »

And no, no company is going to be daft enough to fire all their UK staff and re-hire somewhere else. Reputational damage is one thing, aside from the cost of redundancy you also need people to train in those new hires, make sure things keep ticking over.
What they'll do is simply not re-hire in the UK. Average attrition is usually around the 25% - 30% mark, they can downsize in one location to close to 0 within 4 - 5 years without having to "fire" a single person.

you seriously misunderstand the finance world. These aren't a few IT graduates or bean counters where there are fifty applicants for every job, these are guys who generate millions in revenue for their companies. Companies fight tooth and nail for their services and they aren't going anywhere.

Kermit.de.frog · 16-05-2018 1:07pm

Aegir wrote: »

they have, yes, but no where near the scale expected. They haven't seen a mass exodus of the high paid jobs either

Bank of America is moving some of it's most senior execs in London to Dublin. They have just bought space for over 2,500 people.

Thin end of the wedge.

Kermit.de.frog · 16-05-2018 1:12pm

Anyone who thinks large scale job losses are not coming in London and large scale job creation not coming to Dublin does not know the industry.

Larbre34 · 16-05-2018 1:13pm

Aegir wrote: »

you miss my point. There is no reason why exporting cars to the eu post Brexit needs to be any harder than it is to currently export cars to China or the US

Is there a war on? why should either party go through any pain, why not just enter in to an agreement on the import/export of cars?

why is that vital? there is a lot more to a company than who owns the shares, unless you consider Guinness to be an English beer

A) It need not be, but the EU are in a far stronger position when it comes to making an issue of it if the UK keeps chasing impossible solutions.

The UK will be used to discourage others from considering the same path. Call that what you will. By the sound of all contributors, cars or financial services or foodstuffs or anything else will not be considered in isolation. Its not in the interest of businesses to do so

C) UK production can be relocated without too much sentiment by foreign owners. BMW and VW could easily produce the low volume Rolls and Bentley stocks within their continental plants. Do you think Mr Typical Emir cares where his white Phantom VIII is built?

How do you think Nissan and Honda are feeling right now about the UK gov guarantees they were given about EU market access?

Do you think Airbus will keep producing wing sections in Wales if it adds too much to the cost, in a cut-throat industry?

VinLieger · 16-05-2018 1:13pm

Avatar MIA wrote: »

Traders will still work in London while London has the advantage on internet speeds. But, should Dublin get the same or better internet connection...

This has absolutely nothing to do with internet speeds not sure where you are getting that bizarre nugget from

16-05-2018 1:17pm

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Anyone who thinks large scale job losses are not coming in London and large scale job creation not coming to Dublin does not know the industry.

you quite clearly do not. Either that or you are just trolling.

Avatar MIA · 16-05-2018 1:18pm

Aegir wrote: »

its got nothing to do with Internet speeds.

To put it simply, Dublin isn't London.

VinLieger wrote: »

This has absolutely nothing to do with internet speeds not sure where you are getting that bizarre nugget from

Really, where fractions of a second can give an advantage.

Plus it was mentioned on RTÉ radio 1 this morning as the reasons no trading jobs for this company are moving from London. They said London has a cable connecting direct the US.

Kermit.de.frog · 16-05-2018 1:21pm

Aegir wrote: »

you quite clearly do not. Either that or you are just trolling.

So explain to me what the London traders in forex will be doing? They can't trade so are they going to be redeployed?

myshirt · 16-05-2018 1:21pm

Lads, if you look at the human element here, who would like to be Theresa May right now?

Christ on a bicycle, I feel for the woman. It's non stop.

sbsquarepants · 16-05-2018 1:21pm

dr.fuzzenstein wrote: »

Even if it's only symbolic, but being subsequently overruled and having their decision ignored by the Brits won't sit well with the Scots.

Fúck them - they bottled their chance.

jimgoose · 16-05-2018 1:22pm

Grease me up, woman!!

16-05-2018 1:25pm

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

So explain to me what the London traders in forex will be doing? They can't trade so are they going to be redeployed?

why can't they trade?

Kermit.de.frog · 16-05-2018 1:27pm

Aegir wrote: »

why can't they trade?

No passporting.

So what are they going to do?

They could redeploy them to markets outside the EU but that is a tiny minority compared to EU trading.

Are they going to be re employed as floor sweepers or sink washers?

16-05-2018 1:42pm

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

No passporting.

So what are they going to do?

They could redeploy them to markets outside the EU but that is a tiny minority compared to EU trading.

Are they going to be re employed as floor sweepers or sink washers?

yep, as I thought.

Do not feed

Kermit.de.frog · 16-05-2018 1:44pm

Aegir wrote: »

yep, as I thought.

Do not feed

Can't answer?

My point is proven correct.

Have a good day sir.

VinLieger · 16-05-2018 1:47pm

Avatar MIA wrote: »

Really, where fractions of a second can give an advantage.

Plus it was mentioned on RTÉ radio 1 this morning as the reasons no trading jobs for this company are moving from London. They said London has a cable connecting direct the US.

Who mentioned it? And at what time? Dublin also has a cable with a direct connection to the US fyi

Avatar MIA · 16-05-2018 1:52pm

VinLieger wrote: »

Who mentioned it? And at what time? Dublin also has a cable with a direct connection to the US fyi

Morning Ireland, think it was around 07:30 - can't remember if it was an RTÉ Business correspondent or outsider consultant.

wexie · 16-05-2018 1:55pm

DEFTLEFTHAND wrote: »

They are 'Brits'.

Go find the nearest Scot to you, tell them that...

Report back here when you're out of A&E....

Hector Bellend · 16-05-2018 1:57pm

Maybe I'm missing something here.

Scotland is a part of the united kingdom.

The united Kingdom voted as a whole to leave the e.u.

Unless Scotland becomes independent then they are stuck with brexit whether their parliament likes it or not

Hector Bellend · 16-05-2018 1:58pm

wexie wrote: »

Go find the nearest Scot to you, tell them that...

Report back here when you're out of A&E....

They are. They can think whatever they like. Theyre leaving the eu unless they gain independence as things stand.

Simple as

Kermit.de.frog · 16-05-2018 2:00pm

Hector Bellend wrote: »

Maybe I'm missing something here.

Scotland is a part of the united kingdom.

The united Kingdom voted as a whole to leave the e.u.

Unless Scotland becomes independent then they are stuck with brexit whether their parliament likes it or not

Correct, Scotland is a region of the United Kingdom. It's not a "country" in the same way NI is not a "country", or Wales/England.

The United Kingdom is the country.

VinLieger · 16-05-2018 2:02pm

Hector Bellend wrote: »

They are. They can think whatever they like. Theyre leaving the eu unless they gain independence as things stand.

Simple as

Wow you are clueless as to how the internal workings of the uk operate.

Scotlands parliament have now said they will veto any brexit vote which requires their support due to certain internal changes that will be required, which means westminster will need to overrule holyrood to pass any brexit deal. This is possible but an incredibly rare event. Westminster doing this will seriously bolster support for anyonther indyref and probaly seal the result as well

wexie · 16-05-2018 2:02pm

Hector Bellend wrote: »

They are. They can think whatever they like. Theyre leaving the eu unless they gain independence as things stand.

Simple as

Oh I know and appreciate that.

Just pointing out that every single one I've ever met would have considered themselves a Scot first and foremost, no matter where in the world they now are.
Some (quite a lot actually) fiercely so.

Hector Bellend · 16-05-2018 2:03pm

wexie wrote: »

Oh I know and appreciate that.

Just pointing out that every single one I've ever met would have considered themselves a Scot first and foremost, no matter where in the world they now are.
Some (quite a lot actually) fiercely so.

But arent a lot of them unionists

wexie · 16-05-2018 2:05pm

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Correct, Scotland is a region of the United Kingdom. It's not a "country" in the same way NI is not a "country", or Wales/England.

The United Kingdom is the country.

Actually incorrect...

Scotland (as is Wales AND Northern Ireland) is indeed a country....

A country which is part of the sovereign nation of the United Kingdom...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scotland

http://www.todayifoundout.com/index.php/2012/01/the-difference-between-the-uk-england-and-great-britain/

https://www.google.ie/search?q=which+countries+constitute+the+united+kingdom&rlz=1C1CHBF_enIE787IE787&oq=which+countries+constitue+the+unit&aqs=chrome.1.69i57j0.9679j0j4&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Countries_of_the_United_Kingdom

ArmaniJeanss · 16-05-2018 2:06pm

Hector Bellend wrote: »

Maybe I'm missing something here.

Scotland is a part of the united kingdom.

The united Kingdom voted as a whole to leave the e.u.

Unless Scotland becomes independent then they are stuck with brexit whether their parliament likes it or not

Well its symbolic.
They are effectively forcing Westminster for the first time in 19 years to officially overrule the devolved government in Edinburgh. Which they can legally do.

So it's only symbolic. But also pretty historic.

seamus · 16-05-2018 2:20pm

Hector Bellend wrote: »

Maybe I'm missing something here.

Scotland is a part of the united kingdom.

The united Kingdom voted as a whole to leave the e.u.

Unless Scotland becomes independent then they are stuck with brexit whether their parliament likes it or not

They're stuck with it either way. Scotland cannot grandfather itself into the EU. So whether it leaves the UK or the UK leaves the EU, Scotland will have to leave the EU. This is why the first referendum was defeated.

As for why they voted to reject Brexit, parliaments and councils do this all the time with motions. It's effectively a statement; an official position on a topic, but that doesn't mean they can do anything about it.

Occasionally you'l hear odd things like, "Dublin City Council passes motion officially condemning Israeli attack on Gaza". Because the nature of these things is that anyone can propose any motion for everyone else to vote on.

In terms of Scotland, it's laying the groundwork for a Scottish exit from the UK. They can't block Brexit, but with an official declaration that Scotland doesn't want it, they can move forward to act against it.

the_syco · 16-05-2018 2:30pm

They could just leave the UK, and join Ireland, in the same way that Norn Iron is joined to england :pac:

VinLieger · 16-05-2018 2:40pm

the_syco wrote: »

They could just leave the UK, and join Ireland, in the same way that Norn Iron is joined to england :pac:

I'd take the Scots over the nordies any day, way more craic and way less issues about flegs and marches

the_syco · 16-05-2018 3:52pm

VinLieger wrote: »

I'd take the Scots over the nordies any day, way more craic and way less issues about flegs and marches

The humorous bit is that most of the fleg people ancestors would probably have been planted from Scotland, although their ancestors would have probably hated the english.

EdEd · 16-05-2018 4:01pm

myshirt wrote: »

Lads, if you look at the human element here, who would like to be Theresa May right now?

Christ on a bicycle, I feel for the woman. It's non stop.

Brexit means brexit she repeated non stop. She dug her own grave and I hope she made it comfy for herself.

seamus · 16-05-2018 4:03pm

the_syco wrote: »

The humorous bit is that most of the fleg people ancestors would probably have been planted from Scotland, although their ancestors would have probably hated the english.

You see, that's why the Scots hate the English. Because they took all the Britain-loving Scots and moved them to Northern Ireland.

I think a (figurative) swap would be fair game. Let NI stay with the union, the Scots can join us in the new country of Scotiéire. Border arrangements will be fun.

wexie · 16-05-2018 4:03pm

EdEd wrote: »

Brexit means brexit she repeated non stop. She dug her own grave and I hope she made it comfy for herself.

There's a saying in Dutch that translates into :

If you burn your ass you'll have to sit on the blisters...

Seems appropriate

16-05-2018 4:05pm

seamus wrote: »

You see, that's why the Scots hate the English

The Scots hate everyone.

Scottish Parliament rejects Brexit

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