Recession predictions

Danzy · 27-08-2019 1:37pm

Pussyhands wrote: »

can someone explain what the whole "inverted yield curve" is people talk about?

What are treasuries and bonds and the difference in their terms and why is it important? And do you believe the point people make that when the yield curve inverts, a recession will result?

They invert because people investing look at mid term figures and see weakness, not necessarily immediate though, that inverts it.

It is indicative, not a causing effect.

GooglePlus · 27-08-2019 1:43pm

theguzman wrote: »

Gerald Celente and Nouriel Roubini both came out with some dire forecasts in the last few days, what we are going to witness in the next few months will make the GFC of 2008 and 1929 look like a cakewalk. Ireland will be particularly decimated is my own prediction. Forecasts range from a harsh recession at best to World War Three at worst.

China and the US are stuck in a Thucydides trap and will edge towards war in my opinion. The global economy needs a hard reset button and with catastrophic environmental challenges, demographic crisis in Europe and a migration crisis then we will see economies and nation states crash. China is going through massive internal pressures now like never before seen and it remains to be seen if the Communist Party can retain control, the easiest option will be to go to war against its outside aggressor enemy. Trump may need such an event to unify the states behind him also for 2020 or simply suspend elections and declare martial law in a time of Emergency.

Europe will turn to the far-Right in this time of calamity, In Ireland as the economy crashes and there is no safety valve of immigration then we will see a resurgent conflict in Northern Ireland and this is already starting right now before a hard border is even implemented.

The next 12 months will unparalleled in peoples lives world wide. Sorry for being so negative and pessimistic but I feel there is a buildup towards this for years and I hope I am wrong.

All very likely, it's all starting to boil over.

Danzy · 27-08-2019 1:44pm

Tea drinker wrote: »

https://www.reuters.com/article/sweden-bonds/entire-swedish-yield-curve-now-negative-as-20-yr-bond-yield-falls-below-zero-idUSL8N25C2QW

Nice club to be in! We have only one more planned for Q3 Geuze? What's the thoughts on this yield being available to Ireland in Q3 and Q4?
Is Brexit uncertainty impacting our future bond sales..

It is the wrong place to be in.

That bond yields are like that across so much of Europe should have people in a cold sweat.

tomwaits48 · 27-08-2019 2:13pm

KevinCavan wrote: »

Ya I think this p.c.p. is all about fast money, with no regard for actual future values. Anybody buying a 2 litre diesel new today is fcuked in my opinion.

how so? can't you just hand the car back?

rhubarbcustard · 27-08-2019 5:28pm

im Starting to get interested in all of this, it usually would all go over my head but I have been following Celentes videos for past few months. he has me Royally wound up about next 24 months, Also watching Max Keiser now weekly, im normally such an optimistic person, Will have to try seek some balance!

Tea drinker · 27-08-2019 9:52pm

Max is always downbeat, but frequently correct. Celente has me thinking about building an underground bunker stocked with beans and saying my goodbyes to my loved ones ;-)
A lot can change.... Trump is softening his stance, China also... we'll see if Russia gets forgiven at the next G7 / 8, Trump can invite him to USA.
For ourselves we have issues around Brexit, the tech tax plus the elephant in the room, our debt. A lot is pointing to a recession but in reality we could be in recession for a year and not know it or it might not happen for a few years.

Voltex · 02-09-2019 8:23pm

US/China is not going to be that big a deal. Rumour has it the Chinese are reaching out to make a deal - they need it more than the US does. Look at the Dow over the last few sessions - up about 600 points over the last week.

The real trouble lurks in corporate bonds. US corporates have made a pig of themselves on cheap money over the last few years, but now some of them are in trouble. Look at the range of companies sitting in the BBB rating - GE, GM, Ford, AT&T...just above junk.

US corporates have never been so highly leveraged as they are right now...in the region of 48% of US GDP.

04-09-2019 6:49pm

Just came across the thread and remembered something in the UKSPA's Monthly Market Report for July 2018 -- it hasn't aged particularly badly.

In fact, the comments about disinflation, or in the Eurozone, very low inflation and a risk of technical recession in countries like Germany, are more relevant than ever.

https://www.ukspassociation.co.uk/assets//ukspa-newsletter-jul18.pdf

What I do think is important is that a trade war will only hasten the inevitable - the next global downturn. We are, by common consent, late in the business cycle and any responsible investor - and adviser - must be wondering when we'll hit the 'wall'. I don't think a slow down is imminent but it must be, by definition, inevitable within the next few years.

On this I note a fairly weighty recent note from an investment summit at Pimco. They observe, again rather complacently in my view, that "a U.S. recession is part of our baseline outlook for the next three to five years, and we would expect significant global economic and market spillovers in that event." An expression involving horse manure and Sherlock comes to mind. When that slowdown comes they surmise th at it will be a "shallower and longer" one - they call it a wok- or saucer-shaped, recession rather than a deeper but shorter V-shaped recession: Shallower, because there are so far no signs of corporate or housing overinvestment or overconsumption in the U.S. economy, and the global financial sector looks steadier than in the past few cycles. The main risk to this view is elevated levels of non-financial corporate leverage, which raises the risk of a major default cycle even in an initially shallow recession.

Longer, because relatively low interest rates, bloated central bank balance sheets and (in the U.S.) larger fiscal deficits limit the policy space to fight a global recession. Moreover, given the widespread trend toward economic nationalism and protectionism, a recession could fuel trade deglobulisation and currency wars, thus shrinking the pie further. In addition, the next recession could be riskier than a standard post-war recession, for a few reasons
:
Inflation expectations are very low at the outset almost everywhere, the structural weaknesses in the eurozone could be exposed, and a recession would raise the risk of populism aimed at wealth redistribution and confiscation." To which I'd add that a trade war certainly won't help, especially if all those wok's cost a great deal more after the inevitable trade showdown with China!

lleti · 11-10-2019 9:21am

https://www.rte.ie/news/brexit/2019/1011/1082492-central-bank-forecast/

Central bank warns no deal brexit to bring recession early next year

Wanderer78 · 11-10-2019 9:24am

lleti wrote:

Central bank warns no deal brexit to bring recession early next year

Could be true of course, and would make sense, with global production slowing also, the next round of belt tightening should be interesting, negative interest should help us grow out of it

lleti · 11-10-2019 9:30am

The Fed in America have been making moves for a year now. We could be looking back in future and saying "that was the start of it".

Fed raised interest rates a year ago and the stock market went down. The Fed then reversed this tightening and started to loosen the belt, lowering rates.

This led to the stock market growing 25%. Now, the stock market, despite the Fed pulling these moves has ground to a halt. It's been flat for the last 6 months.

Why?

It can't just be China trade war.

Wanderer78 · 11-10-2019 10:43am

lleti wrote: »

The Fed in America have been making moves for a year now. We could be looking back in future and saying "that was the start of it".

Fed raised interest rates a year ago and the stock market went down. The Fed then reversed this tightening and started to loosen the belt, lowering rates.

This led to the stock market growing 25%. Now, the stock market, despite the Fed pulling these moves has ground to a halt. It's been flat for the last 6 months.

Why?

It can't just be China trade war.

i think its important to realise, we actually dont truly understand the workings of our global economic systems, they truly are a perfect example of 'complex dynamic systems', and theres no question, the interaction of institutions, both public and private, influence outputs greatly, both positively and negatively. i do think theres an element of truth, that the actions of central banks can and do negatively impact these outputs, but you will find, most economic commentators, including more conservative ones, will admit, trade wars are, well, pretty dump

lleti · 14-10-2019 4:16pm

Singapore’s economy — often seen as a bellwether for global growth — avoided a technical recession after growing by 0.6% in the July to September quarter compared to the previous three months.

...

theguzman · 11-12-2019 5:57pm

https://www.dublinairport.com/latest-news/2019/12/11/dublin-airport-sees-passenger-numbers-decline-by-1-in-november

Passengers numbers in Dublin Airport have recorded their first monthly drop in numbers in five years as the global financial criss accelerates around the globe.

Zenify · 11-12-2019 9:54pm

theguzman wrote: »

as the global financial criss accelerates around the globe.

You're the first person I've heard calling this "slowdown" that. You think it will compare to the last?

theguzman · 11-12-2019 10:48pm

Zenify wrote: »

You're the first person I've heard calling this "slowdown" that. You think it will compare to the last?

It will make the last recession look like cakewalk, this country will be hit particularly bad all over again. I actually welcome it as it might make buying a house affordable unlike now.

The current global financial system is so overloaded with debt that this crisis is inevitable and if it stays as a financial crisis we will be okay but there is a very real existential threat of it spilling into a war or wars, Gold is being hoarded at never before seen volumes and something very big is just around the corner.

q85dw7osi4lebg · 12-12-2019 12:57am

Thanks for letting me know.

I will contact the bank about a mortgage the second the crisis hits.

theguzman · 12-12-2019 12:59am

Landon Famous Bakery wrote: »

Thanks for letting me know.

I will contact the bank about a mortgage the second the crisis hits.

I hope this is sarcasm, I would advise nobody to ever take a mortgage unless totally avoidable.

Atlantic Dawn · 12-12-2019 1:03am

Tomorrow night will answer so many questions.

Snow Garden · 12-12-2019 11:31pm

Atlantic Dawn wrote: »

Tomorrow night will answer so many questions.

In what way?

Soulsun · 12-12-2019 11:38pm

I forecast a soft brexit followed by our economy pushing on again.. really don’t see a recession due to brexit.
If however there was a global downturn the back end of next year we would feel it eventually.

wassie · 12-12-2019 11:45pm

theguzman wrote: »

It will make the last recession look like cakewalk, this country will be hit particularly bad all over again. I actually welcome it as it might make buying a house affordable unlike now.

The current global financial system is so overloaded with debt that this crisis is inevitable and if it stays as a financial crisis we will be okay but there is a very real existential threat of it spilling into a war or wars, Gold is being hoarded at never before seen volumes and something very big is just around the corner.

Agree with the above, although I dont subscribe to the view that property prices will take a big hit. The housing sector is no where near leveraged like it was last time, quality of lending is significantly better and the banks are much more capitalised.

And the debit this time around corporate debt and not consumer debt, of which around 40% is carried by China.

Geuze · 16-12-2019 10:02pm

Soulsun wrote: »

I forecast a soft brexit followed by our economy pushing on again.. really don’t see a recession due to brexit.
If however there was a global downturn the back end of next year we would feel it eventually.

A soft brexit means the UK staying in the SM and/or CU.

Is this likely?

So far it looks like a hard Brexit?

Thargor · 16-12-2019 10:10pm

Records broken in world markets again, S&P ploughing on, at some point Im going to have to get back into the market and that will be when it crashes, or will it?

BDI · 16-12-2019 10:12pm

We still looking good? Will I crack on building the hotels and eating breakfast rolls or should I buy the off license now?

q85dw7osi4lebg · 17-12-2019 2:04am

Thargor wrote: »

Records broken in world markets again, S&P ploughing on, at some point Im going to have to get back into the market and that will be when it crashes, or will it?

Don't stop mining 3 feet from gold.

When it falls, it'll fall fast and hard. 2 years tops, 5 months minimum.

Tea drinker · 17-12-2019 7:50pm

Landon Famous Bakery wrote: »

Don't stop mining 3 feet from gold.

When it falls, it'll fall fast and hard. 2 years tops, 5 months minimum.

What do reckon as the instigator, and what are the indicators or signs we are that we are heading or well on in that direction?
I think it's been previously said that corporate debt is going to be one of the drivers, as that falls out there will be a banking exposure, a share and pension fund exposure as well. So a sort of dotcom bust... not confined to the dotcoms ?
Cheers

Snow Garden · 20-12-2019 4:40pm

Tea drinker wrote: »

What do reckon as the instigator, and what are the indicators or signs we are that we are heading or well on in that direction?
I think it's been previously said that corporate debt is going to be one of the drivers, as that falls out there will be a banking exposure, a share and pension fund exposure as well. So a sort of dotcom bust... not confined to the dotcoms ?
Cheers

Corporate and sovereign debt. Some big multinationals are going to go the wall in 2020 and 2021.

car_radio19834 · 02-02-2020 11:45pm

Is the coronavirus the black swan?

robinbird · 02-02-2020 11:48pm

realitykeeper wrote: »

The next recession will be a depression which will be more devastating than any in human history. One can only guess when the next recession will start. My guess is October, 2019.

Wow. You really were spot on with that prediction.

q85dw7osi4lebg · 03-02-2020 1:10am

robinbird wrote: »

Wow. You really were spot on with that prediction.

Isn't that when the REPO market ramped up?

Could be right yet.

car_radio19834 · 03-02-2020 10:09am

China markets down heavily this morning. That's with state pumping in billions.

US futures are up however, Chinese investors must be flooding into US equities. You'd think the US firms earnings are linked to China though so will be interesting to see what the end of today looks like there.

The rate of infections seems to have stabilised or slightly increased so this might not last too long.

4068ac1elhodqr · 03-02-2020 11:57am

car_radio19834 wrote: »

The rate of infections seems to have stabilised or slightly increased so this might not last too long.

There are no indications of such, if anything the last 2 days show an marked increase on previous days.
Global Figures for the today (3rd feb) won't be available until end 21:00 EST.

Int'l states with it (27) are still controllable, but x10 have reached double figures, if that reaches triple figures, the risk of control goes out the window.

This, and the effects of (17,000+ in China) will last for months, most factories and int'l stores there won't resume normal operating hours until it's fully under control.

The HangSeng has stabilsed somewhat, but that's factoring in the ¥/$bn's being thrown at it.

car_radio19834 · 03-02-2020 12:02pm

Sasha Magnificent Boot wrote: »

There are no indications of such, if anything the last 2 days show an marked increase on previous days.
Global Figures for the today (3rd feb) won't be available until end 21:00 EST.

Int'l states with it (27) are still controllable, but x10 have reached double figures, if that reaches triple figures, the risk of control goes out the window.

This, and the effects of (17,000+ in China) will last for months, most factories and int'l stores there won't resume normal operating hours until it's fully under control.

The HangSeng has stabilsed somewhat, but that's factoring in the ¥/$bn's being thrown at it.

This dashboard is wrong?

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

It's getting updated but according to yours it's incorrect.

4068ac1elhodqr · 03-02-2020 12:07pm

car_radio19834 wrote: »

This dashboard is wrong?
It's getting updated....t.

Updates for today aren't correct, simply as the day isn't over yet, thus you'll have to wait until 21:00hrs EST (after midnight GMT) at least for them to compile Monday's figures from all various sources/orgs, before they'll publish. They're only getting their luckycharms brekkie cereals on the EastCoast(EST) now.

You'll very easily expect to see 20k+ cases showing in the early hours, estimate 22.5k (at least).

wassie · 03-02-2020 12:30pm

car_radio19834 wrote: »

Is the coronavirus the black swan?

I doubt it looking back at history which shows that impacts on markets for such events tend to be short-lived. The Chinese and other Asian markets declined as the SARS virus outbreak spread, but bounced back once it was contained. The global response this time has been much swifter.

Zenify · 07-03-2020 8:24pm

Did anyone guess recession in 2020 due to pneumonia causing virus? Anyone??

Titclamp · 07-03-2020 8:25pm

Mars delights will be brought back

Titclamp · 07-03-2020 8:25pm

Zenify wrote: »

Did anyone guess recession in 2020 due to pneumonia causing virus? Anyone??

Yes paddy powers did at 50000/1

Thargor · 07-03-2020 8:53pm

Titclamp wrote: »

Mars delights will be brought back

Jaysus how did I forget about them? I used to love those, I used to get them ice cold in the freezer then eat them with a cup of tea, so good:

jimbobaloobob · 08-03-2020 1:24pm

wassie wrote: »

I doubt it looking back at history which shows that impacts on markets for such events tend to be short-lived. The Chinese and other Asian markets declined as the SARS virus outbreak spread, but bounced back once it was contained. The global response this time has been much swifter.

A month on from your post I think I interpret it differently.

4068ac1elhodqr · 09-03-2020 4:07pm

Looking very close to Black Monday conditions, anyone looking cheap oil ($38) while a price war is starting between Russ & OPEC/SA now is the time.

FTSE opened 9% negative this morning, recovered slightly -6.3 after lunch, but might well still wrap up at -7/8.

jimbobaloobob · 09-03-2020 4:48pm

Sasha Magnificent Boot wrote: »

Looking very close to Black Monday conditions, anyone looking cheap oil ($38) while a price war is starting between Russ & OPEC/SA now is the time.

FTSE opened 9% negative this morning, recovered slightly -6.3 after lunch, but might well still wrap up at -7/8.

Did the market not shut down?

4068ac1elhodqr · 09-03-2020 4:51pm

jimbobaloobob wrote: »

Did the market not shut down?

Everything appears up and running (at -6.5% Europe), -5.5% US.

Oil dropping 20% or so in one day, might be an idea to stop trade, if possible.

4068ac1elhodqr · 10-03-2020 2:21pm

Bad day for the city folk yesterday, likely have been told to stabalise things by their supervisors.

Today Moscow's plan to have a price war with SA on the black stuff is perhaps now backfiring
Moscow RTS -9%.

one world order · 17-03-2020 11:48am

Looks like the bubbles created by currency printing are coming to an end. Dow Jones posted it's second worst fall in history yesterday and 5th worst earlier in the week. No quick solution to the virus in sight, lots of people out of work and business restricted around the world.

17-03-2020 11:57am

car_radio19834 wrote: »

Is the coronavirus the black swan?

it's a herd of black swans

Zenify · 17-03-2020 11:14pm

glasso wrote: »

it's a herd of black swans

Flock?

greenfield21 · 18-03-2020 12:10am

The US and UK seem to have a better grasp of the huge challenge we are facing with both fiscal and monetary actions. also noticed Eu gover bonds are rising which seems criminal now, surely the ECB needs to act. Italy needs cash to survive and funding for healthcare etc. Maybe lagarde wants full control of Italy...

bilbot79 · 18-03-2020 12:16am

Zenify wrote: »

Flock?

Actually....

'A group of swans, also once game birds, is a wedge when they're in flight, likely because of the shape a group of swans takes in flight. And while we can call a group of swans a bevy, a herd, a game, or a flight, they can only be a bank when they're on the ground.'

Recession predictions

Comments