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06-05-2019, 22:15   #46
MidMan25
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May last year? Thundery rain ?

It was the best lightning storm witnessed in this country for quite a number of years.
What a night, we were right at the heart of it in East Cork, went on from 11pm - 4am approx non stop lightning and some absolutely torrential rain
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06-05-2019, 22:53   #47
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Remember that night amazingly, was up till 3am watching it in cork city. Didn’t even know it was coming!
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07-05-2019, 09:13   #48
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GFS 0z yet again a warm run with high pressure to our east drawing in a southeasterly airflow rather than southerly so cooler than its 12z yesterday (whilst still on the warmest side of the GEFS) but nevertheless, still talking low 20s for a few fair places by this time next week if it were to verify.

The pattern it establishes seems like one that could keep getting established again and again with brief westerly incursions, as ridging from the Azores attempts to build.



ECM is similar to the GFS pretty much with high pressure to our east drawing in a southeasterly wind which turns into an easterly later on as pressure rises to our north.



ECM clusters from its 12z yesterday pretty much the same as their 0z runs with high pressure certain for next week, just small differences in exact positioning.



Signals looking very strong now for a warm up early next week with high pressure becoming established but still time for changes.
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07-05-2019, 11:27   #49
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May last year? Thundery rain ?

It was the best lightning storm witnessed in this country for quite a number of years.
The 19th of July 2016 was the last large scale event.
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07-05-2019, 11:37   #50
pad199207
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The 19th of July 2016 was the last large scale event.
Before 27th of May 2018? Probably yeah.
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07-05-2019, 20:44   #51
Meteorite58
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ECM certainly looking a whole lot better for warmth next week. Currently looking like improving from Sunday and getting that bit warmer each day until getting up to the low 20's by about Tues next and on the present charts looks to stay up to the low 20's in places until the end of the run ( Fri ). LP pressing from the Atlantic so will have to see how the high pressure holds out. Currently looks like very little precipitation next week.









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07-05-2019, 20:52   #52
sryanbruen
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ECM certainly looking a whole lot better for warmth next week. Currently looking like improving from Sunday and getting that bit warmer each day until getting up to the low 20's by about Tues next and on the present charts looks to stay up to the low 20's in places until the end of the run ( Fri ). LP pressing from the Atlantic so will have to see how the high pressure holds out. Currently looks like very little precipitation next week.
From the northern hemispheric view, it looks like it wants this high to become an omega block with low pressures undercutting to our south (though it attempts to power up a little low by the end of the week just to our southwest as you mention) and pushing to the north (jet stream becoming more meridional). If this verifies, I would think we could be in for a fairly pronounced period of dry weather and increasingly warm.

As always, there will be a zonal bias with some models if the Omega high thing comes to reality (particularly the GFS). We saw this very evidently last Summer and high pressure just kept reasserting itself over or near us until late July.
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07-05-2019, 21:13   #53
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Yes sryanbruen the all important jet taking a more meridional flow and keeping North of us as heights rise from the S and HP becomes established. So far over the last few runs the ECM has been strengthening its outlook regards HP blocking and holding more firm into each run. Interesting to see how well it holds on to this or in fact as you say will we see an Omega block proper becoming established. Time to take out the shorts and sandals eh !




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08-05-2019, 13:40   #54
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May last year? Thundery rain ?

It was the best lightning storm witnessed in this country for quite a number of years.
Yes...




Until June 8th:

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08-05-2019, 14:12   #55
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Yeah decent on that day too actually. Still not as good as the May event though.
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08-05-2019, 21:40   #56
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I'm still waiting on a half respectable thunderstorm since 1985.
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08-05-2019, 22:03   #57
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Neither of the 2018 ones stand out for me in North Kildare looks like we were on the fringes of both?
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08-05-2019, 22:06   #58
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To get back on topic..

Models still showing the same thing for next week with Ireland having dominance from high pressure for at least a few days. Things start differing between models by this time next week however.

The GFS wants to retrogress the high to the north and northwest with low pressure invading from the Atlantic forming deep lows running on a southerly tracking jet stream. Looks pretty awful and quite a different run from the previous few following the lovely weather of next week.

The ECM attempts to retrogress the high at the very end of its run but it keeps pressure generally high over us.

EC clusters from this morning's 0z run want to retrogress the high a bit to our northwest by the end of next week and into the weekend or following week but not to the extent that the GFS 12z shows so low pressure systems do not affect Ireland here. It stays dry but maybe a tilt to the wind in it being more of a northeasterly direction so be cooler particularly in eastern regions.
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09-05-2019, 08:14   #59
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GFS 0z continues to be different with proper northern blocking setting up over Iceland this time next week forcing the winds to veer northeasterly. Takes a little bit before it turns unsettled. Much cooler run for early next week too.

ECM 0z is actually quite similar but it delays the retrogression so not as quick as the GFS and maybe a bit more of a northerly wind than northeasterly.
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09-05-2019, 15:46   #60
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GFS 0z continues to be different with proper northern blocking setting up over Iceland this time next week forcing the winds to veer northeasterly. Takes a little bit before it turns unsettled. Much cooler run for early next week too.

ECM 0z is actually quite similar but it delays the retrogression so not as quick as the GFS and maybe a bit more of a northerly wind than northeasterly.
It is starting to look like 2012 again. I thought we would get a pattern of the azores high ridging in, with brief Atlantic interruptions, but that seems to be the wrong call. Still it's early days to write off the whole summer at this point!

Last edited by nacho libre; 09-05-2019 at 16:02.
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