will house prices in dublin fall post brexit?

portcrap wrote: »

What an odd thing to say on a public forum and on a specific thread you're already participating in.


Back to your question OP, it depends if the economic impact directly affects jobs and therefore disposal income. If the downturn can be largely absorbed by the economy without significant job losses, then it probably wouldn't have an affect on house prices.

When you create a thread on boards, you are supposed to actually contribute.

Not just chime in every couple of posts with "yes, but what about the effect on house prices".

The OP is clearly doing research of some kind.

mkdon wrote: »

what is the concensus?

As with everything post Brexit...

c.p.w.g.w wrote: »

What the story is basically.

If there is no freedom of movement between Ireland and England. It means my trips become a bigger headache (visas?). Also supply of products.

A little clarity for what they plan to do for each potential outcome

Free movement between Ireland and the UK is not going to end, the bottom line is nobody knows but on balance, uncertainty is not good.

By the way, a lot of those in the UK applying for Irish passports are not doing it to move here they could do that anyway, they want hassle-free travel to their second home in France or Italy.

Retailers are in a particularly difficult position. Where goods are sourced from and how they are routed may have to change. some goods are partly manufactured in Ireland and partly in the UK or are assembled from goods imported into the UK. How all of this will be done will depend on the terms of any Brexit agreement. It may mean it is no longer economic to stock goods in shops which originate from or pass through Britain. Some shops may close because their business model is destroyed. The price of some consumer goods may rise and substitute products may appear in competition. If I was working in a british owned shop with products in stock coming from the Uk i would be bricking it.

Being prepared is great, but I love how threads like this attract the :

We're doomed! brigade

The truth is nobody knows.

listermint wrote: »

No lets get to grips with real facts.
There are no houses, we have build a handle of thousand in the last few years. Which means the commodity is rare.
that never means cheaper.
Anyone who is looking for 2008 style crash in housing prices will be severely disappointed.
And yes the economy will take a hit they are saying 2-2.6% But not enough to put us in greece or UK style recession.

Your post cracks me up. It's like a condensed summary of every pub conversation in Ireland between 2005 and 2008. First they said it wouldn't happen because "the fundamentals are sound", "Ireland is different" and "there aren't enough houses". Then they accused negative people of talking down the economy in the hope of getting cheap houses (which led to Bertie's gaff telling negative people they should commit suicide). When things started to slow down, the same people backtracked from their line that a recession was impossible and started trotting out the "soft landing" rubbish. Ironically, during the downturn, anyone suggesting that it could be on the way back up was shot down equally quickly. The idea in 2010 (at the very depths of the recession) that we'd have a boom in 2015 was ridiculous and widely scorned.

The shortage of houses was quickly rendered moot by tens of thousands of people leaving the country because they couldn't get a job any more. The remaining houses could not be sold because the banks pulled up the ladder and stopped lending (although you'd imagine the EU and CB rules would help mitigate that risk this time).

Market Economies are very fragile, Ireland's particularly so. All it takes is a lack of confidence and it all comes tumbling down. If prices start to rise significantly in shops or if goods can't make it here to be sold, retailers will be the first to go which means job losses. Job losses mean less spending in the economy so other retailers are next in line. The rest is history.

Like I said before, I've one apartment barely out of negative equity and another house which wasn't cheap. I'm the last person hoping for a recession but anyone confidently telling us that it'll all be fine is blissfully ignorant of economics and history and that's a dangerous place to be.

markpb wrote: »

Your post cracks me up. It's like a condensed summary of every pub conversation in Ireland between 2005 and 2008. First they said it wouldn't happen because "the fundamentals are sound", "Ireland is different" and "there aren't enough houses". Then they accused negative people of talking down the economy in the hope of getting cheap houses (which led to Bertie's gaff telling negative people they should commit suicide). When things started to slow down, the same people backtracked from their line that a recession was impossible and started trotting out the "soft landing" rubbish. Ironically, during the downturn, anyone suggesting that it could be on the way back up was shot down equally quickly. The idea in 2010 (at the very depths of the recession) that we'd have a boom in 2015 was ridiculous and widely scorned.

The shortage of houses was quickly rendered moot by tens of thousands of people leaving the country because they couldn't get a job any more. The remaining houses could not be sold because the banks pulled up the ladder and stopped lending (although you'd imagine the EU and CB rules would help mitigate that risk this time).

Market Economies are very fragile, Ireland's particularly so. All it takes is a lack of confidence and it all comes tumbling down. If prices start to rise significantly in shops or if goods can't make it here to be sold, retailers will be the first to go which means job losses. Job losses mean less spending in the economy so other retailers are next in line. The rest is history.

Like I said before, I've one apartment barely out of negative equity and another house which wasn't cheap. I'm the last person hoping for a recession but anyone confidently telling us that it'll all be fine is blissfully ignorant of economics and history and that's a dangerous place to be.

Pub talk....


You are aware we were over supplied in the tens of thousands during that period

Right now we needed about 35k houses a year to be built but are managing about 25% of that figure.

There is only one person here engaged in pub talk.

Probably thinks Fiats are crap too

Brexit, whether hard or soft will affect Ireland negatively. The only issue is how bad it is going to be. there will be higher inflation which will ramp up wage demands . Bank lending will be much less for housing and so prices will fall. the only question is, by how much. It is likely a lot of east europeans will go home when the shtf. emigration to australia, canada and the Middle east will accelerate. Ex pats will not come home. There will be no housing shortage.

mkdon wrote: »

Where is the evidence that it will affect Ireland negatively either way? Media sure is painting a different picture

Is it a school project you're doing OP?

Assetbacked wrote: »

Dublin has not achieved the contingency planning influx some predicted it could. Given the predicted negative economic impact to exports then I fear we will lose an important part of a strong economy - exports to the UK; which will result in even more reliance on multinationals and the employment they bring to the country. These workers do not generally tend to think about setting down roots in Ireland so they would only be seeking to rent not buy houses. As such, I see house prices falling.

More people renting will impact supply.

You don't need to be simply purchasing to impact on prices.

donkeyoaty0099 wrote: »

Following that through, farmers etc lose jobs and need to move to work in these multinationals. Most of these are based in and around the major cities. House prices go up.

Did that happen last time?