will house prices in dublin fall post brexit?

mkdon

what is the concensus?

c.p.w.g.w

mkdon wrote: »

what is the concensus?

Possible go up. A few companies are moving jobs over here, also Facebook have announced another 5,000 position's

Samuel T. Cogley

mkdon wrote: »

what is the concensus?

There isn't one :pac:

Bubbaclaus

If the current agreement is what actually happens, I don't see Brexit having any effect on the housing market here.

engiweirdo

House prices in Dublin will never be allowed to fall by the current or even a potential FF government. Neither one has either the will or wherewithall to increase supply or diversify employment saturation to allow this to occur.

noodler

Up is the prediction we hear the most due to the foreign companies bit already mentioned.

I'm struggling to think of a massive change that could bring them down bar absolutely zero trade agreement being reached with the EU and even then probably just means lower growth rather than anything negative.

Sleeper12

Post Brexit we will still have a massive housing shortage. I can't see any way prices will fall until supply meets demand in 4 or 5 years time. Best thing you can hope for is that they stop increasing in price imo

mkdon

this all seems to familiar to the celtic tiger housing bubble for me... a crash is coming but when....noone knows brexit could impact it? Surely someone thinks house prices will fall?

Sleeper12

mkdon wrote:

this all seems to familiar to the celtic tiger housing bubble for me... a crash is coming but when....noone knows brexit could impact it? Surely someone thinks house prices will fall?

Big difference is we had over supply at the end of the boom. Now we need another 100,000 homes just to meet backed up demand and 30,000 per year on an ongoing basis. We are only bui ar 20,000 this year. We are years away from the shortage slowing or stopping

ZeroThreat

mkdon wrote: »

this all seems to familiar to the celtic tiger housing bubble for me... a crash is coming but when....noone knows brexit could impact it? Surely someone thinks house prices will fall?

A 'soft landing'.

noodler

Sleeper12 wrote: »

Big difference is we had over supply at the end of the boom. Now we need another 100,000 homes just to meet backed up demand and 30,000 per year on an ongoing basis. We are only bui ar 20,000 this year. We are years away from the shortage slowing or stopping

This is it.

There is a fundamental demand based on demographics which won't dissipate for many years.

Previously we were actually building more than we needed and more of it was being financed by credit.

mkdon

if a crash happens though that will in turn affect demand ....hence emigration etc so who knows

Snotty

Sleeper12 wrote: »

Big difference is we had over supply at the end of the boom. Now we need another 100,000 homes just to meet backed up demand and 30,000 per year on an ongoing basis. We are only bui ar 20,000 this year. We are years away from the shortage slowing or stopping

Ah how we forget so quickly.

You must remember those figures are based on the current upward trend, a big shock to the economy and your 100k backlog can disappear in an instance, or the backlog can continue but not access to funds could mean it is worthless.

Every market in the world goes through peaks and troughs, there is absolutely no reason Dublin is any different. A mobile workforce, reliance on US enterprise and EU interference means Dublin will be hit at some point, question is only when, not if.

Subcomandante Marcos

mkdon wrote: »

what is the concensus?

They'll rise as jobs start to be relocated here from London.

noodler

Snotty wrote: »

Ah how we forget so quickly.

You must remember those figures are based on the current upward trend, a big shock to the economy and your 100k backlog can disappear in an instance, or the backlog can continue but not access to funds could mean it is worthless.

Every market in the world goes through peaks and troughs, there is absolutely no reason Dublin is any different. A mobile workforce, reliance on US enterprise and EU interference means Dublin will be hit at some point, question is only when, not if.

Tbh they aren't.

They are based on the projected household formation which is based on demographics.

It isn't really going to disappear with a change in economic growth.

Fair, the price indivuals can pay might reduce but the gap is between projected supply and demand (even leaving aside the accumulated shortfall to date) is such that the most you could hope for is a reduction in price growth.

RayCun

But the demographic projections are based on economics. If the economy goes in the toilet a lot of people will leave the country, and those who are left won't have money to buy.

super_furry

Think a plateau is the most likely. Building should continue to pick up but with all the talk of multi-nationals moving over and the likes of Google expanding further after buying the Treasury Building, commuter houses and apartments will remain in high demand.

Snotty

super_furry wrote: »

Think a plateau is the most likely. .

Ah the auld "soft landing" makes an appearance ðŸ˜ðŸ˜

mkdon

:rolleyes: wtf is a soft landing - this isnt a bleedin airport

Sarn

It will be interesting to see what happens to prices come the new year and a new wave of exceptions. Will there be another surge? While we may be at the limit of what people can pay, it just means people are having to add their own money to get over the line.

IMHO the 3.5 to 4.5 (exceptional) salary multiples will minimise any impact on price falls. The days of 100% mortgages, 10x your €30k salary and assuming you’ll rent out a room are gone. Pent up demand, sky rocketing rents and a lack of supply are all likely reasons to delay any falls.

Snotty

mkdon wrote: »

:rolleyes: wtf is a soft landing - this isnt a bleedin airport

It's a term used by every vested interest before the last bust. Considering it was only 10 years ago, we'll assume your ignorance is related to your age.

mkdon

agreed - it shall be interesting to see how brexit and our bubble plays out... the times are a changing

noodler

RayCun wrote: »

But the demographic projections are based on economics. If the economy goes in the toilet a lot of people will leave the country, and those who are left won't have money to buy.

The migration aspect of demographics is smaller the the natural aspect (births/deaths).

These people are already born, are already in school, college etc, they'll need housing. That's part isn't really down to economics.

I'll agree the purchasing power of some groups could fall in an dour economic situation but ultimately it really does look like the fundamentals underlying projected demand are sound.

I think people talking about soft landings now are confusing the underlying demand for property during the bubble (by definition credit) versus the main determinant now.

Probably some look at the above and assume I must be a realtor! But really it's just how depressed I am about the possibility of reasonably priced accommodation in the medium term.

RayCun

In the 80's and 90's, population growth from census to census was less than 3%. Then it went up around 8% during the boom, before dropping back to around 3%. If the economy continues like this, the next census will see growth around 8% again, if there's a bust it won't.

martingriff

engiweirdo wrote: »

House prices in Dublin will never be allowed to fall by the current or even a potential FF government. Neither one has either the will or wherewithall to increase supply or diversify employment saturation to allow this to occur.

They will when they start having developer and builder friends again

noodler

RayCun wrote: »

In the 80's and 90's, population growth from census to census was less than 3%. Then it went up around 8% during the boom, before dropping back to around 3%. If the economy continues like this, the next census will see growth around 8% again, if there's a bust it won't.

Looking at the numbers, I don't see how the number of people who would conceivably move abroad in a recession would make a big enough dent in the projected household formation to have a situation where supply would equal demand (or even exceed it).

Cyrus

mkdon wrote: »

this all seems to familiar to the celtic tiger housing bubble for me... a crash is coming but when....noone knows brexit could impact it? Surely someone thinks house prices will fall?

It's really not as much and all as some people want to to believe that

martingriff

What we need are builder to build and developer, receivers & NAMA to sell there land for that to happen. Noticed I have left the government out of this as they do not build houses

mkdon

Snotty wrote: »

It's a term used by every vested interest before the last bust. Considering it was only 10 years ago, we'll assume your ignorance is related to your age.

what ignorance?

MSVforever

Interesting topic.
In the Celtic tiger years we had an undersupply, in the recession we had an oversupply and now we have an undersupply of housing again.

Is the population growth mostly based on net immigration due to the international workforce (multilingual jobs etc) or are Irish people returning home?

Has anybody any statistics?

mikemac2

mkdon wrote: »

:rolleyes: wtf is a soft landing - this isnt a bleedin airport

Favoured term of Bertie Ahern but he sure wasn’t alone

listermint

The facts indicate it's highly unlikely of a fall in house prices.

Supply

Workforce growth.

Economic growth.


Ireland is a power house in the EU right now even with the UK problems if a deal isn't worked out it will only impact our excessive growth by around 2 percent.

Not something to be sniffed at but certainly not something that will dump is into a recession.

If your Betting on getting a cheaper house come march 2019 the crystal ball indicates no.

noodler

MSVforever wrote: »

Interesting topic.
In the Celtic tiger years we had an undersupply, in the recession we had an oversupply and now we have an undersupply of housing again.

Is the population growth mostly based on net immigration due to the international workforce (multilingual jobs etc) or are Irish people returning home?

Has anybody any statistics?

Population growth implies its based predominantly on babies born.

The term is household formation and the esri have projections which I have to recheck but I believe are something like 20,000 units per year with only 14,000 projected to be build on average per annum which is bad but is actual coming from an already accumulated deficit.

Attached slide from a recent presentation neatly sums up some of what I have been saying regarding fundamentals.

Moonjet

The cost of building is another factor to consider ( land + building materials + labour ). Developers have only recently returned to profitability since prices have reached a critical point. And even then, it's only certain areas and types of property (most new development seems to be semi-D houses in commuter towns) and the odd 100 - 200 apartment blocks which are snapped up by the REITs.
With a chronic supply shortage, if prices fall below that critical point - developers will pull out of the market and stop building again. Enter supply shortage and rising prices again.

markpb

I wish I was as confident as others here. At least one major investor has issued a warning that the UK is not safe to invest in until the current political problems are resolved. If the UK leave the EU without a trade deal, we'll have problems importing and exporting physical goods. We'll see lots of retailers finding it difficult to get products into shops. A UK recession is likely. A lot of our tourists come from the UK so between a recession there and the likely impact that will have on the exchange rate, or tourist market could be hurt. Being more pessimistic, a UK recession could trigger a smaller recession serious western Europe including Ireland.

I have one apartment bought in 2005 which is only recently out of negative enquity and a house bought in 2014 which could leave me in negative equity if a crash happens so I'm not crossing my fingers and hoping for a recession so I can buy some cheap houses.

In any case, people are quick to say we had an oversupply last time but that forget that for almost five years, no one could get a mortgage to buy a home. This was a major contributor to places lying empty for a decade.

handlemaster

c.p.w.g.w wrote: »

Possible go up. A few companies are moving jobs over here, also Facebook have announced another 5,000 position's

do you have a link to this ?

I would say nobody knows its a new situation so there is nothing to base a forecast on. There are a lot of people both professionally personally and business wise waiting till after brexit to make various decisions.

Supply is a big issue with prices, I happened to be in the Bettystown Mornington Laytown are on Friday/Saturday and know it reasonably well, you can buy a new 3 bed A-rated house for 259k https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/dun-eimear-eastham-road-bettystown-meath/4151319 and you would easily pick up 3 bed second hand for 240k. The reason for this is supply there is a huge amount of housing to pick from and lots of new development planned.

Contrast that with north Wicklow fewer new developments and much more constraint second-hand supply, cheapest new house would be in the region of 450k.

I know one area might be more desirable than the other but even taking that into account a large part of the price difference must be accounted for by supply.

zl1whqvjs75cdy

mariaalice wrote: »

I would say nobody knows its a new situation so there is nothing to base a forecast on. There are a lot of people both professionally personally and business wise waiting till after brexit to make various decisions.

Supply is a big issue with prices, I happened to be in the Bettystown Mornington Laytown are on Friday/Saturday and know it reasonably well, you can buy a new 3 bed A-rated house for 259k https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/dun-eimear-eastham-road-bettystown-meath/4151319 and you would easily pick up 3 bed second hand for 240k. The reason for this is supply there is a huge amount of housing to pick from and lots of new development planned.

Contrast that with north Wicklow fewer new developments and much more constraint second-hand supply, cheapest new house would be in the region of 450k.

I know one area might be more desirable than the other but even taking that into account a large part of the price difference must be accounted for by supply.

Tbf bettystown to city centre would be absolutely brutal in the long run if you're commuting.

donkeyoaty0099

donkeyoaty0099 wrote: »

Tbf bettystown to city centre would be absolutely brutal in the long run if you're commuting.

Thousands do it everyday bus or train, it took me about 20 minutes to drive from Swords to Bettystown last Friday at 4pm.

oceanman

donkeyoaty0099 wrote: »

Tbf bettystown to city centre would be absolutely brutal in the long run if you're commuting.

so would commuting from north Wicklow though..

Route 101X is a peak time express service from Wilton Terrace in Dublin city centre to Termon Abbey, north of Drogheda. Services operate via Baggot Street Lower, Pembroke Street, Leeson Street, Dawson Street, Suffolk Street, Westmoreland Street, Eden Quay, North Wall Quay, Dublin Port Tunnel, M1 motorway, Balrothery, then follow the same route as the 101 as far as Drogheda Bus Station and continues out to Termon Abbey.

According to their timetable, it takes about 50 min to get to Custom House Quay from Juilianstown.

mkdon

what companies are moving here that have not already done so ....some companies may also move the other way no?

Zenify

Are people here actually arguing that Ireland will get more jobs after Brexit? that is a little too optimistic in my view. Brexit is bad news for Ireland. Nobody knows for sure but some economic models for a bad Brexit could lower Irelands GDP by up to 7%. A good few politicians were using this figure at talks. I was talking to a few European diplomats a few weeks ago and I told them that a lot of UK people were getting Irish passports to come over here. They laughed at this saying why do they think Ireland would be any better after Brexit. That point really hit home with me.

davindub

Zenify wrote: »

Are people here actually arguing that Ireland will get more jobs after Brexit? that is a little too optimistic in my view. Brexit is bad news for Ireland. Nobody knows for sure but some economic models for a bad Brexit could lower Irelands GDP by up to 7%. A good few politicians were using this figure at talks. I was talking to a few European diplomats a few weeks ago and I told them that a lot of UK people were getting Irish passports to come over here. They laughed at this saying why do they think Ireland would be any better after Brexit. That point really hit home with me.

Exactly. It isn't good news for Ireland....

riclad

Its not good news for ireland, it may stop prices rising ,
maybe prices might fall by a few per cent .2 or 3 per cent
Irish citys need more house,s to be built ,
we need about 20k housing units to be built every year ,
We are not even close to building that no.
Even if britain is outside the eu we can still make a trade agreement with
the uk.
Theres loads of new offices being built in dublin,
i see no sign of investors in ireland being put off by brexit.
I think brexit makes ireland more attractive for tech companys vs the uk,
if they consider the situation post brexit.

Zenify

riclad, your points about the impact of Brexit are not correct. We cannot make a trade deal with the UK if they are outside the EU. This is one of the reasons why the UK is leaving, so they can make trade deals.

Investors are very nervous about Ireland and Brexit. The Irish stock exchange plummeted when UK ministers resigned last Friday. They are afraid this deal won't pass. Yes some jobs have come to Ireland and we may get more due to Brexit. But we will lose far more than will will gain.

4ensic15

Prices are already topping out and even beginning to fall. Brexit will only make it worse. Brexit is going to have terrible effects on the irish economy. A significant percentage of Irish products are exported to the UK. Most of the rest leave via the UK. Most Irish imports come in via the UK. the disruption and lengthening of supply chains will cause major and expensive upheaval.
Anyone with a titter of wit is selling property no to have cash reserves to pick up the Brexit bargains. The vultures are already circling. They have feasted on the carcass of the Celtic Tiger. Now for the main course, the Brexit Bust!

mkdon

interesting but where are you getting 7% gdp from?

noodler

4ensic15 wrote: »

Prices are already topping out and even beginning to fall. Brexit will only make it worse. Brexit is going to have terrible effects on the irish economy. A significant percentage of Irish products are exported to the UK. Most of the rest leave via the UK. Most Irish imports come in via the UK. the disruption and lengthening of supply chains will cause major and expensive upheaval.
Anyone with a titter of wit is selling property no to have cash reserves to pick up the Brexit bargains. The vultures are already circling. They have feasted on the carcass of the Celtic Tiger. Now for the main course, the Brexit Bust!

Beginning to fall?

Nope, the increases have slowed recently is all.

mkdon

wow interesting topic if must say so myself... the variety of opinion shows noone actually knows.. the experts are still predicting prices to rise for many years to come ... any backup for your brexit bust argument?

mkdon

they have decreased in some small cases in the likes of d4.. but generally overall have increased but level of increase has fallen