will house prices in dublin fall post brexit?

mkdon · 18-11-2018 1:35pm #1

what is the concensus?

c.p.w.g.w · 18-11-2018 1:37pm

mkdon wrote: »

what is the concensus?

Possible go up. A few companies are moving jobs over here, also Facebook have announced another 5,000 position's

Samuel T. Cogley · 18-11-2018 1:40pm

mkdon wrote: »

what is the concensus?

There isn't one :pac:

Bubbaclaus · 18-11-2018 2:24pm

If the current agreement is what actually happens, I don't see Brexit having any effect on the housing market here.

engiweirdo · 18-11-2018 2:28pm

House prices in Dublin will never be allowed to fall by the current or even a potential FF government. Neither one has either the will or wherewithall to increase supply or diversify employment saturation to allow this to occur.

noodler · 18-11-2018 2:31pm

Up is the prediction we hear the most due to the foreign companies bit already mentioned.

I'm struggling to think of a massive change that could bring them down bar absolutely zero trade agreement being reached with the EU and even then probably just means lower growth rather than anything negative.

Sleeper12 · 18-11-2018 2:34pm

Post Brexit we will still have a massive housing shortage. I can't see any way prices will fall until supply meets demand in 4 or 5 years time. Best thing you can hope for is that they stop increasing in price imo

mkdon · 18-11-2018 2:34pm

this all seems to familiar to the celtic tiger housing bubble for me... a crash is coming but when....noone knows brexit could impact it? Surely someone thinks house prices will fall?

Sleeper12 · 18-11-2018 2:39pm

mkdon wrote:

this all seems to familiar to the celtic tiger housing bubble for me... a crash is coming but when....noone knows brexit could impact it? Surely someone thinks house prices will fall?

Big difference is we had over supply at the end of the boom. Now we need another 100,000 homes just to meet backed up demand and 30,000 per year on an ongoing basis. We are only bui ar 20,000 this year. We are years away from the shortage slowing or stopping

ZeroThreat · 18-11-2018 2:42pm

mkdon wrote: »

this all seems to familiar to the celtic tiger housing bubble for me... a crash is coming but when....noone knows brexit could impact it? Surely someone thinks house prices will fall?

A 'soft landing'.

noodler · 18-11-2018 2:48pm

Sleeper12 wrote: »

Big difference is we had over supply at the end of the boom. Now we need another 100,000 homes just to meet backed up demand and 30,000 per year on an ongoing basis. We are only bui ar 20,000 this year. We are years away from the shortage slowing or stopping

This is it.

There is a fundamental demand based on demographics which won't dissipate for many years.

Previously we were actually building more than we needed and more of it was being financed by credit.

mkdon · 18-11-2018 2:58pm

if a crash happens though that will in turn affect demand ....hence emigration etc so who knows

Snotty · 18-11-2018 2:59pm

Sleeper12 wrote: »

Big difference is we had over supply at the end of the boom. Now we need another 100,000 homes just to meet backed up demand and 30,000 per year on an ongoing basis. We are only bui ar 20,000 this year. We are years away from the shortage slowing or stopping

Ah how we forget so quickly.

You must remember those figures are based on the current upward trend, a big shock to the economy and your 100k backlog can disappear in an instance, or the backlog can continue but not access to funds could mean it is worthless.

Every market in the world goes through peaks and troughs, there is absolutely no reason Dublin is any different. A mobile workforce, reliance on US enterprise and EU interference means Dublin will be hit at some point, question is only when, not if.

Subcomandante Marcos · 18-11-2018 3:01pm

mkdon wrote: »

what is the concensus?

They'll rise as jobs start to be relocated here from London.

noodler · 18-11-2018 3:03pm

Snotty wrote: »

Ah how we forget so quickly.

You must remember those figures are based on the current upward trend, a big shock to the economy and your 100k backlog can disappear in an instance, or the backlog can continue but not access to funds could mean it is worthless.

Every market in the world goes through peaks and troughs, there is absolutely no reason Dublin is any different. A mobile workforce, reliance on US enterprise and EU interference means Dublin will be hit at some point, question is only when, not if.

Tbh they aren't.

They are based on the projected household formation which is based on demographics.

It isn't really going to disappear with a change in economic growth.

Fair, the price indivuals can pay might reduce but the gap is between projected supply and demand (even leaving aside the accumulated shortfall to date) is such that the most you could hope for is a reduction in price growth.

RayCun · 18-11-2018 3:27pm

But the demographic projections are based on economics. If the economy goes in the toilet a lot of people will leave the country, and those who are left won't have money to buy.

super_furry · 18-11-2018 3:29pm

Think a plateau is the most likely. Building should continue to pick up but with all the talk of multi-nationals moving over and the likes of Google expanding further after buying the Treasury Building, commuter houses and apartments will remain in high demand.

Snotty · 18-11-2018 3:46pm

super_furry wrote: »

Think a plateau is the most likely. .

Ah the auld "soft landing" makes an appearance ðŸ˜ðŸ˜

mkdon · 18-11-2018 3:51pm

:rolleyes: wtf is a soft landing - this isnt a bleedin airport

Sarn · 18-11-2018 4:06pm

It will be interesting to see what happens to prices come the new year and a new wave of exceptions. Will there be another surge? While we may be at the limit of what people can pay, it just means people are having to add their own money to get over the line.

IMHO the 3.5 to 4.5 (exceptional) salary multiples will minimise any impact on price falls. The days of 100% mortgages, 10x your €30k salary and assuming you’ll rent out a room are gone. Pent up demand, sky rocketing rents and a lack of supply are all likely reasons to delay any falls.

Snotty · 18-11-2018 4:12pm

mkdon wrote: »

:rolleyes: wtf is a soft landing - this isnt a bleedin airport

It's a term used by every vested interest before the last bust. Considering it was only 10 years ago, we'll assume your ignorance is related to your age.

mkdon · 18-11-2018 4:22pm

agreed - it shall be interesting to see how brexit and our bubble plays out... the times are a changing

noodler · 18-11-2018 4:35pm

RayCun wrote: »

But the demographic projections are based on economics. If the economy goes in the toilet a lot of people will leave the country, and those who are left won't have money to buy.

The migration aspect of demographics is smaller the the natural aspect (births/deaths).

These people are already born, are already in school, college etc, they'll need housing. That's part isn't really down to economics.

I'll agree the purchasing power of some groups could fall in an dour economic situation but ultimately it really does look like the fundamentals underlying projected demand are sound.

I think people talking about soft landings now are confusing the underlying demand for property during the bubble (by definition credit) versus the main determinant now.

Probably some look at the above and assume I must be a realtor! But really it's just how depressed I am about the possibility of reasonably priced accommodation in the medium term.

RayCun · 18-11-2018 4:57pm

In the 80's and 90's, population growth from census to census was less than 3%. Then it went up around 8% during the boom, before dropping back to around 3%. If the economy continues like this, the next census will see growth around 8% again, if there's a bust it won't.

martingriff · 18-11-2018 5:04pm

engiweirdo wrote: »

House prices in Dublin will never be allowed to fall by the current or even a potential FF government. Neither one has either the will or wherewithall to increase supply or diversify employment saturation to allow this to occur.

They will when they start having developer and builder friends again

noodler · 18-11-2018 5:04pm

RayCun wrote: »

In the 80's and 90's, population growth from census to census was less than 3%. Then it went up around 8% during the boom, before dropping back to around 3%. If the economy continues like this, the next census will see growth around 8% again, if there's a bust it won't.

Looking at the numbers, I don't see how the number of people who would conceivably move abroad in a recession would make a big enough dent in the projected household formation to have a situation where supply would equal demand (or even exceed it).

Cyrus · 18-11-2018 5:05pm

mkdon wrote: »

this all seems to familiar to the celtic tiger housing bubble for me... a crash is coming but when....noone knows brexit could impact it? Surely someone thinks house prices will fall?

It's really not as much and all as some people want to to believe that

martingriff · 18-11-2018 5:08pm

What we need are builder to build and developer, receivers & NAMA to sell there land for that to happen. Noticed I have left the government out of this as they do not build houses

mkdon · 18-11-2018 6:01pm

Snotty wrote: »

It's a term used by every vested interest before the last bust. Considering it was only 10 years ago, we'll assume your ignorance is related to your age.

what ignorance?

MSVforever · 18-11-2018 6:21pm

Interesting topic.
In the Celtic tiger years we had an undersupply, in the recession we had an oversupply and now we have an undersupply of housing again.

Is the population growth mostly based on net immigration due to the international workforce (multilingual jobs etc) or are Irish people returning home?

Has anybody any statistics?

mikemac2 · 18-11-2018 6:26pm

mkdon wrote: »

:rolleyes: wtf is a soft landing - this isnt a bleedin airport

Favoured term of Bertie Ahern but he sure wasn’t alone

will house prices in dublin fall post brexit?

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