Winter 2018/2019 - General Discussion

I'm just wondering, was the latest ECM deemed an outlier?

Vxlkss wrote: »

I'm just wondering, was the latest ECM deemed an outlier?

It was an outlier near the end of the run.

Horrendous ECM 0z this morning :eek:

Dissolves the block completely between 168 and 216 hours, and throws us back into a jet stream / Atlantic dominated regime. I can't help wondering if part of the ruckus, and that very compact depression curving up and around the US East Coast which has been showing up on the last few runs is what's left of invest 96-L, a tropical wave which was originally forecast by the NHC to become a tropical storm by this weekend, but ultimately failed to launch and got sheared apart.

The only saving grace on this run is that it does show the Scandi block trying to begin re-establishing on the very last frame, at 240h. Incredibly weak and small, but the yellow patch is there nonetheless, where it had entirely disappeared on the previous frame:



This, to be honest, is where my FI hypocrisy comes in. I'mma choose to believe that this run is just the usual FI BS, while regarding any blocked charts as genuinely likely.

On a serious note, this is still FI and still all to play for, but it's a timely reminder that one small factor can change and therefore disrupt the whole pattern. If I'm right about invest 96-L being the seed for the low pressure which challenges the block near the end of the run, it would be the second time this year that a system of tropical origin has caused major shenanigans, interfering with a block in our part of the world - the other was Hurricane Chris earlier this year, which caused the first real disruption to our prolonged heatwave and threw our models into complete chaos for several days as they tried to get a fix on where exactly he would end up.

If 96L is indeed the origin of this low, expect its behaviour to be somewhat erratic and cause some unpredictable and contradictory model runs. Ultimately, we won't know what's going to happen with that until we get there.

hatrickpatrick wrote: »

Horrendous ECM 0z this morning :eek:

Dissolves the block completely between 168 and 216 hours, and throws us back into a jet stream / Atlantic dominated regime. I can't help wondering if part of the ruckus, and that very compact depression curving up and around the US East Coast which has been showing up on the last few runs is what's left of invest 96-L, a tropical wave which was originally forecast by the NHC to become a tropical storm by this weekend, but ultimately failed to launch and got sheared apart.

The only saving grace on this run is that it does show the Scandi block trying to begin re-establishing on the very last frame, at 240h. Incredibly weak and small, but the yellow patch is there nonetheless, where it had entirely disappeared on the previous frame:



This, to be honest, is where my FI hypocrisy comes in. I'mma choose to believe that this run is just the usual FI BS, while regarding any blocked charts as genuinely likely.

On a serious note, this is still FI and still all to play for, but it's a timely reminder that one small factor can change and therefore disrupt the whole pattern. If I'm right about invest 96-L being the seed for the low pressure which challenges the block near the end of the run, it would be the second time this year that a system of tropical origin has caused major shenanigans, interfering with a block in our part of the world - the other was Hurricane Chris earlier this year, which caused the first real disruption to our prolonged heatwave and threw our models into complete chaos for several days as they tried to get a fix on where exactly he would end up.

If 96L is indeed the origin of this low, expect its behaviour to be somewhat erratic and cause some unpredictable and contradictory model runs. Ultimately, we won't know what's going to happen with that until we get there.

This is very far from a dissolved block. I think people may be getting used to fillet steak output and are now referring to rump-steak as gristle! Look at the pressure which remains over Scandanavia. The pattern is still blocked, very blocked, with undercutting, and I would say that a reload would follow.

Yaaaay BLIZZARD7 and KingdomRushed!

sryanbruen wrote: »

I’m kinda leaning towards back loaded despite the QBO. Hopefully nature can prove me wrong.

Why exactly are you leaning to a backloaded winter, with the declining QBO easterly phase surely that favours a milder end to winter? What factors do you see overriding this?

I've a flight out of Dublin on the 07th of December, will I be ok?**




















**I'm joking:D:D

Cork Boy 53 wrote: »

Don't forget about the cold wet weather in March (after Storm Emma) and April this year.

And more snow for some mid-March. Here's a short video from late St. Patricks night snow this year.



https://streamable.com/2cubn

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

At this time of year it takes a couple of bites of the cherry but as long as the overall flow remains persistent and we see the deep cold air getting a foothold in Scandinavia and then down in to the continent.

That has not happened yet so the initial incursion next week is not going to be that really dry, frigid type of cold we saw in March.

Give it another week or two however and it would be a very different story!...if the pattern remains consistent and it broadly looks a good bet that it will right now..

But I'm sure we've been let down like this in the past Kermit?

I agree with Kermit. Nothing going to happen right away even when the wind turns east. Gonna take a few weeks. Get Northern Europe buried in snow, weak jet stream holds south, then bide our time. It will come