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The UK response to Covid-19 [MOD WARNING 1ST POST]

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    #9452
    theological
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,831 ✭✭✭theological


    Deleted User wrote: »
    Next week is an important week for the UK. I wrote here 2 or 3 weeks ago that I thought that daily deaths (low 100s) and infections (1000 ish) would stabilise at this kind of level, that the government have decided that this is acceptable, and that this will be the baseline from which surges are managed. The curve is clearly flattened, and there is nothing to suggest that it steepens again downwards from here.

    Its disappointing, as the numbers are not low enough to enable an effective track / trace / isolate process, and not low enough to give other countries the comfort to open up to the UK. The UK is stuck in a kind of no mans land - not bad enough to justify a substantial reversal of recent releases of restrictions, and not good enough to come out of this with any kind of confidence.


    We need longer to see what the trend will be. I agree that the death rate is flattening, but it is important to remember that the death rate is based on numbers from a number of weeks ago. Admissions are also flattening. Reported case numbers continue to decline.

    The beta dashboard is much better than the regular one. It contains data about hospital admissions also.


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    #9453
    A Dub in Glasgo
    Registered Users Posts: 17,062 ✭✭✭✭A Dub in Glasgo


    https://twitter.com/NicolaSturgeon/status/1277558163420721152


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    #9454
    Dave0301
    Registered Users Posts: 2,475 ✭✭✭Dave0301


    Won't be able to watch it until later, but am hearing that tonight's Panorama is fairly scathing of the testing by in place for Covid-19.


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    #9455
    Joe_ Public
    Registered Users Posts: 13,023 ✭✭✭✭Joe_ Public


    Scathing though nothing very new in it. Testing data not being shared with nhs trusts or local councils. Contact tracers sitting on their arses doing absolutely nothing - and feeling guilty about it to be fair. They have nearly 1,000 public health officials doing 90% of the contact tracing, a job they are trained for and have been doing for years, and beggars belief they werent being scaled up from the start.


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    #9456
    theological
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,831 ✭✭✭theological


    Joe_ Public wrote: »
    Scathing though nothing very new in it. Testing data not being shared with nhs trusts or local councils. Contact tracers sitting on their arses doing absolutely nothing - and feeling guilty about it to be fair. They have nearly 1,000 public health officials doing 90% of the contact tracing, a job they are trained for and have been doing for years, and beggars belief they werent being scaled up from the start.


    Is it better to have more capacity for when it is needed, or have less and not be able to keep up?

    I think the former.


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    #9457
    Joe_ Public
    Registered Users Posts: 13,023 ✭✭✭✭Joe_ Public


    theological wrote: »
    Is it better to have more capacity for when it is needed, or have less and not be able to keep up?

    I think the former.

    Yeah, capacity would have been great when there were thousands crying out for it 3 months ago, some of whom likely died for want of it.

    Did you watch the programme? Void tests counted as complete. Testers not changing gloves at test centre for entire day, no trained medical personnel on site. Inadequate ppe. Meanwhile testers in Germany under expert supervision, wearing masks, face shields and THREE pairs of gloves.

    Not a pretty picture exactly.


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    #9458
    fr336
    Registered Users Posts: 10,179 ✭✭✭✭fr336


    theological wrote: »

    The beta dashboard is much better than the regular one. It contains data about hospital admissions also.

    Been looking for something like this since March, thanks. Good to see so few on ventilation - under 300 in whole UK. Crazy to think over 100,000 people have had to go to hospital with this in the UK since March. And over half of them didn't come out.


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    #9459
    S.M.B.
    Registered Users Posts: 9,364 ✭✭✭S.M.B.


    I genuinely don't know if I want to watch that show, sounds like it could trigger some spiral.


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    #9460
    theological
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,831 ✭✭✭theological


    Joe_ Public wrote: »
    Yeah, capacity would have been great when there were thousands crying out for it 3 months ago, some of whom likely died for want of it.

    Did you watch the programme? Void tests counted as complete. Testers not changing gloves at test centre for entire day, no trained medical personnel on site. Inadequate ppe. Meanwhile testers in Germany under expert supervision, wearing masks, face shields and THREE pairs of gloves.

    Not a pretty picture exactly.

    I accept your point on past failures on ramping up testing, you'd be preaching to the converted, but that isn't what you raised in the last point..

    Let's stick on the point you initially raised.

    You are criticising the track and trace service for having too much spare capacity.

    Isn't it good to have capacity at this point in time so that it is available when needed?


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    #9461
    S.M.B.
    Registered Users Posts: 9,364 ✭✭✭S.M.B.


    theological wrote: »
    I accept your point on past failures on ramping up testing, you'd be preaching to the converted, but that isn't what you raised in the last point..

    Let's stick on the point you initially raised.

    You are criticising the track and trace service for having too much spare capacity.

    Isn't it good to have capacity at this point in time so that it is available when needed?
    I'm reading it as criticism of having telesales like staff sitting around doing nothing when the majority of actual track and trace is been done on the ground by pre existing public health officials. This is where the scaling up should have been focused.


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    #9462
    Joe_ Public
    Registered Users Posts: 13,023 ✭✭✭✭Joe_ Public


    theological wrote: »
    I accept your point on past failures on ramping up testing, you'd be preaching to the converted, but that isn't what you raised in the last point..

    Let's stick on the point you initially raised.

    You are criticising the track and trace service for having too much spare capacity.

    Isn't it good to have capacity at this point in time so that it is available when needed?

    No, i think i didnt make it clear or you misinterpreted.

    I am only sharing observations from the panorama doc, most of which was known anyway.

    They have an army of 25,000 tracers who have almost nothing to do. This, i believe, because they are linked to the private testing centres who are not finding cases or maybe there are no cases to find in the community anymore. Doubt it but who knows.

    Meanwhile, the cases in hospitals and care homes are chased up by public health officials who are experts in the field. That operation is what I'm saying should have been scaled up from the start and tracing and testing put in the domain of public health and local councils, instead of feeding the private sector so beloved of this government.

    Personally i wouldnt trust this government on any part of it , testing, tracing or whatever. Too many lies and too much incompetence. That's about the only thing its "world beating" at.


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    #9463
    A Dub in Glasgo
    Registered Users Posts: 17,062 ✭✭✭✭A Dub in Glasgo


    Restrictions in Leicester to stay for the moment

    https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1277695393460092930


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    #9464
    fr336
    Registered Users Posts: 10,179 ✭✭✭✭fr336


    A Dub in Glasgo wrote: »
    Restrictions in Leicester to stay for the moment

    https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1277695393460092930

    They're actually going backwards - non essential retail abs schools closing again. Doubt they'll be the last local lockdown.


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    #9465
    theological
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,831 ✭✭✭theological


    Joe_ Public wrote: »
    No, i think i didnt make it clear or you misinterpreted.

    I am only sharing observations from the panorama doc, most of which was known anyway.

    They have an army of 25,000 tracers who have almost nothing to do. This, i believe, because they are linked to the private testing centres who are not finding cases or maybe there are no cases to find in the community anymore. Doubt it but who knows.

    Meanwhile, the cases in hospitals and care homes are chased up by public health officials who are experts in the field. That operation is what I'm saying should have been scaled up from the start and tracing and testing put in the domain of public health and local councils, instead of feeding the private sector so beloved of this government.

    Personally i wouldnt trust this government on any part of it , testing, tracing or whatever. Too many lies and too much incompetence. That's about the only thing its "world beating" at.


    Let's stick to the point.

    So is having extra contact tracing capacity a good thing or a bad thing?

    I think it is good to have capacity for when it is needed.


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    #9466
    Harry Palmr
    Closed Accounts Posts: 40,061 ✭✭✭✭Harry Palmr


    Scotland's exit from the union must be getting an unspoken turbo boost as people observe the difference in intent and effect. Scotland is still pulling together as England rushes about chaotically and it's not even July 4th yet. It'll be mayhem.


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    #9467
    Ribs1234
    Registered Users Posts: 85 ✭✭Ribs1234


    Any idea what Hancock meant (about the Leicester lockdown) when he said that children were particularly affected by this outbreak? Did he mean in schooling terms or otherwise?


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    #9468
    S.M.B.
    Registered Users Posts: 9,364 ✭✭✭S.M.B.


    theological wrote: »
    Let's stick to the point.

    So is having extra contact tracing capacity a good thing or a bad thing?

    I think it is good to have capacity for when it is needed.
    You are asking him to stick to some point that you are assuming he made in his original post.

    He said nothing about whether extra track and trace capacity is good or bad. His original comment was about the opportunity cost of misplaced track and trace resources.


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    #9469
    Strazdas
    Registered Users Posts: 18,279 ✭✭✭✭Strazdas


    Ribs1234 wrote: »
    Any idea what Hancock meant (about the Leicester lockdown) when he said that children were particularly affected by this outbreak? Did he mean in schooling terms or otherwise?

    Apparently, literally affected i.e. they have the virus.


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    #9470
    4068ac1elhodqr
    Closed Accounts Posts: 9,586 ✭✭✭4068ac1elhodqr


    Ribs1234 wrote: »
    Any idea what Hancock meant (about the Leicester lockdown) when he said that children were particularly affected by this outbreak? Did he mean in schooling terms or otherwise?
    Likely just social gatherings (youngsters tend to congregate more).

    Also, another factor (similar to modern Sweden), is that of language/communication:

    City councillor (Ratilal Govind) said he thought a lack communication with people who do not speak English as a first language could be one factor behind the increasing numbers.
    Some 49 per cent of Leicester’s 340,000 population is of Asian heritage or from black backgrounds while in east Leicester that figure is around two thirds.

    “I have seen young people getting together, having a few drinks and conversation,” the Labour councillor told the MailOnline.
    “They are just social gatherings. With these young people there is a language barrier.
    They are speaking their own language and I tell them to disperse in Gujarati.
    “There is a lack of communication made worse by the language barriers.”


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    #9471
    r93kaey5p2izun
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,962 ✭✭✭r93kaey5p2izun


    Ribs1234 wrote: »
    Any idea what Hancock meant (about the Leicester lockdown) when he said that children were particularly affected by this outbreak? Did he mean in schooling terms or otherwise?

    This was the clarification he gave - quoted from Sky News live coverage of the press conference :
    Nusrat Ghani asks what factors are behind the outbreaks in Leicester - and why children are particularly vulnerable? Is it a separate strand of COVID, she asks? 

    Hancock says children have "very, very low risk of suffering form COVID themselves" but the proportion of children who tested positive and therefore are maybe transmitting it is higher

    "That's the reason we've taken the decision we have in Leicester."


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    #9472
    Joe_ Public
    Registered Users Posts: 13,023 ✭✭✭✭Joe_ Public


    theological wrote: »
    Let's stick to the point.

    So is having extra contact tracing capacity a good thing or a bad thing?

    I think it is good to have capacity for when it is needed.

    There are, according to ons figures, in the region of 3,000 daily cases in the uk. Currently somewhere well short of one-third are entering the system for contact tracing. Almost 90% of this tracing is being done by public health officials. The 25,000 recruits are doing on average between them about 0.5 contacts per week.

    The point is this is just a shambolic operation that was only ever about numbers and optics than actual efficiency. Those idle tracers would have plenty of work if they were out there diligently tracking down those cases that were harder to find, as a german doctor explained was critical to their efficiency on the panorama doc.

    Some good news reported yesterday: according to senior German official, boris johnson has contacted them to ask for help with their app. If true, thats at least a small step in the right direction, just a pity it didnt happen sooner.


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    #9473
    theological
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,831 ✭✭✭theological


    Joe_ Public wrote: »
    There are, according to ons figures, in the region of 3,000 daily cases in the uk. Currently somewhere well short of one-third are entering the system for contact tracing. Almost 90% of this tracing is being done by public health officials. The 25,000 recruits are doing on average between them about 0.5 contacts per week.

    The point is this is just a shambolic operation that was only ever about numbers and optics than actual efficiency. Those idle tracers would have plenty of work if they were out there diligently tracking down those cases that were harder to find, as a german doctor explained was critical to their efficiency on the panorama doc.

    Some good news reported yesterday: according to senior German official, boris johnson has contacted them to ask for help with their app. If true, thats at least a small step in the right direction, just a pity it didnt happen sooner.

    SMB, I think you can see in this post rather clearly that he is criticising having the capacity to spare.

    Joe Public - I still think having people to spare in the event of further outbreaks is the right thing to do. There is nothing to say that we won't need this capacity further on particularly as winter approaches. This just looks like criticising for criticisms sake.


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    #9474
    Peregrinus
    Registered Users Posts: 26,243 ✭✭✭✭Peregrinus


    No, it looks like criticism for having capacity which isn't being used, even though there is occasion to use it right now.

    Possible explanation for this are:

    - Poor management: The capacity exists, and the need/opprortunity to utilise it has arisen, but for whatever reason somebody isn't joining the dots and deploying the capacity where it can be useful.

    - "Potemkin" capacity: There's the appearance of capacity, created by announcements of the recruitment of call centre staff for contact-tracing, but in reality the capacity doesn't exist because, e.g. the staff aren't trained or equipped, or the systems to pass contact details on to staff in a timely fashion haven't been developed or don't work, or whatever.

    - The recruits have been trained and equipped to do a different contact-tracing task than the one which actually needs to be done.

    And no doubt we could think of other possible explanations. But if it is the case that there are simultaneously (a) surplus contact-tracing capacity, and (b) two-thirds of postive tests not being subject to contact -tracing, on the face of it something is amiss. This is more a cause for concern than for congratulation.


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    #9475
    theological
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,831 ✭✭✭theological


    Peregrinus wrote: »
    No, it looks like criticism for having capacity which isn't being used, even though there is occasion to use it right now.

    Possible explanation for this are:

    - Poor management: The capacity exists, and the need/opprortunity to utilise it has arisen, but for whatever reason somebody isn't joining the dots and deploying the capacity where it can be useful.

    - "Potemkin" capacity: There's the appearance of capacity, created by announcements of the recruitment of call centre staff for contact-tracing, but in reality the capacity doesn't exist because, e.g. the staff aren't trained or equipped, or the systems to pass contact details on to staff in a timely fashion haven't been developed or don't work, or whatever.

    - The recruits have been trained and equipped to do a different contact-tracing task than the one which actually needs to be done.

    And no doubt we could think of other possible explanations. But if it is the case that there are simultaneously (a) surplus contact-tracing capacity, and (b) two-thirds of postive tests not being subject to contact -tracing, on the face of it something is amiss. This is more a cause for concern than for congratulation.


    Is there "occasion to use it right now"?

    If there are only so many cases being reported then it is obvious that only so many are going to go through the tracing capacity. Having walked past a COVID test centre on Sunday it looked like the staff were twiddling their thumbs waiting for cars to come.

    I'm all for criticism when I deem it to be fair, but I think bemoaning excess capacity when it could potentially be needed in the future isn't really fair.


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    #9476
    Zubeneschamali
    Registered Users Posts: 16,686 ✭✭✭✭Zubeneschamali


    theological wrote: »
    Is there "occasion to use it right now"?

    Yes, only one third of cases are being traced.

    It's like the magic 100,000 tests they faked once for a headline.


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    #9477
    bob mcbob
    Registered Users Posts: 971 ✭✭✭bob mcbob


    Harry Palmr wrote: »
    Scotland's exit from the union must be getting an unspoken turbo boost as people observe the difference in intent and effect. Scotland is still pulling together as England rushes about chaotically and it's not even July 4th yet. It'll be mayhem.

    Yes I wonder if Boris will give an update next week on the number of people in hospital as a result of his independence day stunt.

    A&E on Saturday night will be carnage.


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    #9478
    theological
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,831 ✭✭✭theological


    Zubeneschamali wrote: »
    Yes, only one third of cases are being traced.

    It's like the magic 100,000 tests they faked once for a headline.


    Can you explain this figure please?

    Is this the proportion of reported cases, or the proportion of estimated cases?

    If people don't get tested it is pretty obvious that this can't enter the system.


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    #9479
    S.M.B.
    Registered Users Posts: 9,364 ✭✭✭S.M.B.


    theological wrote: »
    SMB, I think you can see in this post rather clearly that he is criticising having the capacity to spare.
    It isn't clear at all. I've made my point twice already and Peregrinus has done so too.

    It's a perfectly valid point but it's like talking to a wall.

    The Government could cease Track and Trace operations entirely and divert ALL attention and resources to preparing the NHS for a second wave by adding additional PPE, 111 call handlers and bed capacity. While in theory there would be nothing 'wrong' with this excess capacity can you not agree that it would be problematic.


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    #9480
    theological
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,831 ✭✭✭theological


    S.M.B. wrote: »
    It isn't clear at all. I've made my point twice already and Peregrinus has done so too.

    It's a perfectly valid point but it's like talking to a wall.

    The Government could cease Track and Trace operations entirely and divert ALL attention and resources to preparing the NHS for a second wave by adding additional PPE, 111 call handlers and bed capacity. While in theory there would be nothing 'wrong' with this excess capacity can you not agree that it would be problematic.


    The government have a stockpile of PPE ready. Bed capacity is sorted with the Nightingale hospitals which are already standing empty. I'm pretty sure they've thought about call handling at this stage also.

    I'm happy to engage with valid and justified criticism, but I don't think this is. Having spare tracing capacity is a good thing.


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    #9481
    Joe_ Public
    Registered Users Posts: 13,023 ✭✭✭✭Joe_ Public


    First off, nobody said "having spare capacity isnt a good thing" so best put that desperate straw man out of its misery for a start.

    Here's the thing. In Germany, i understand they have a total tracing force of 18,000, built around a core team of medical experts supported by a larger team of part time recruits, mostly ex or retired medical personnel, who are kept in reserve and only called up when needed. It is streamlined and efficient, built to do the job required of it and not simply to dazzle people with numbers so they might forget just how useless you are.

    Meanwhile, in the uk they have 25,000 people, being paid full time to do nothing and this can be justified on the basis that well, we might need them some time in the future. And it turns out that the people who were already skilled in the job and didnt require training were the best ones to do it anyway and should have been trusted and supported from the beginning.

    Just a wild guess, but i bet Angela Merkel never boasted about the numbers or how their tracing system was "world beating". Latest figures i heard on the app was over 15m downloads but they're not happy with that, they understand they need to do better.


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