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Cold Spell Late Feb/ Early March Technical Discussion only MOD NOTE POST #1

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    #602
    giveitholly
    Registered Users Posts: 5,595 ✭✭✭giveitholly


    If it slips south would we keep onto the cold and it wouldn't turn to rain


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    #603
    sdanseo
    Registered Users Posts: 9,233 ✭✭✭sdanseo


    giveitholly wrote: »
    If it slips south would we keep onto the cold and it wouldn't turn to rain

    Based on current models it won't turn to rain until late Friday regardless

    We don't want it slipping too far south or we lose out on a Blizzard (from a pro-snowmagedon persepective).


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    #604
    Kermit.de.frog
    Registered Users Posts: 23,564 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    fax24s.gif?2

    Anyone who can spot the warm front in this feature on the radar currently off the northeast coast of England gets a cookie :)


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    #605
    Arne_Saknussem
    Registered Users Posts: 2,723 ✭✭✭Arne_Saknussem


    sdanseo wrote: »
    Based on current models it won't turn to rain until late Friday regardless

    We don't want it slipping too far south or we lose out on a Blizzard (from a pro-snowmagedon persepective).

    Is this 'late Friday' for southern coastal counties or more Dublin area?


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    #606
    sdanseo
    Registered Users Posts: 9,233 ✭✭✭sdanseo


    Arne_Saknussem wrote: »
    Is this 'late Friday' for southern coastal counties or more Dublin area?

    Depends which model you pick out of the bingo drum at this stage

    GFS for example showing nothing but snow

    ECM would give rain for south of Dublin/Galway from Friday afternoon but by the time that happens there's not too much precipitation left.

    ICON has us all building igloos.


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    #607
    George Sunsnow
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,043 ✭✭✭George Sunsnow


    Weathercheck wrote: »
    EURO4 has nice streamer tomorrow night / Weds morning stretching from Dublin to Clare!

    18022806_2_2612.gif

    Aye but how accurate is that to have zero action either side of that in a NE wind?
    Spidey sense says it makes no sense


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    #608
    pad199207
    Registered Users Posts: 7,142 ✭✭✭pad199207


    George Sunsnow wrote: »
    Aye but how accurate is that to have zero action either side of that in a NE wind?
    Spidey sense says it makes no sense

    Longest sea fetch?


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    #609
    typhoony
    Registered Users Posts: 1,493 ✭✭✭typhoony


    current GFS trundling out now, the center of the low for the end of the week looks to me to be a bit further south than on previous runs


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    #610
    sdanseo
    Registered Users Posts: 9,233 ✭✭✭sdanseo


    Is it just me or is up to 84h on the GFS so far spectacularly similar to 12Z? Looks like almost nothing has changed.

    Edit: no nevermind


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    #611
    YanSno
    Registered Users Posts: 358 ✭✭YanSno


    Friday low is further south on 12z gfs


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    #612
    Reckless Abandonment
    Registered Users Posts: 1,495 ✭✭✭Reckless Abandonment


    pm1QzVzkp

    low a litte A little more south


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    #613
    ninebeanrows
    Registered Users Posts: 12,778 ✭✭✭✭ninebeanrows


    Snow struggling to make it north on the 18z!!!

    gfs-0-90.png?18?18


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    #614
    gabeeg
    Registered Users Posts: 1,591 ✭✭✭gabeeg


    Thaw also struggling to make it North

    gfs-2-108.png?18


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    #615
    typhoony
    Registered Users Posts: 1,493 ✭✭✭typhoony


    such a finely balanced situation, experience tells me that the heaviest snow will be in a line south of Limerick\Clare. i'd be surprised if we get a countrywide blizzard.


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    #616
    SleetAndSnow
    Registered Users Posts: 4,678 ✭✭✭SleetAndSnow


    GFZ 12Z

    30ADBA24-BFA0-4D82-BDD5-C38906F96DDF.png.6e18f98a458d9fff49cf4c4fee7e892b.png

    GFS 18z for comparision

    95D9C257-6168-46BF-A0A4-6AA07DA3057C.png.9a2bac0cb803c1eb451bd6dad01eec25.png


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    #617
    gabeeg
    Registered Users Posts: 1,591 ✭✭✭gabeeg


    typhoony wrote: »
    such a finely balanced situation, experience tells me that the heaviest snow will be in a line south of Limerick\Clare. i'd be surprised if we get a countrywide blizzard.

    You might be right, but mind you there's another massive blob of moisture in tow


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    #618
    SleetAndSnow
    Registered Users Posts: 4,678 ✭✭✭SleetAndSnow


    If anything this is showing just how unsure the models are at predicting the rare event in this side of the atlantic, however I think they are starting to get there!


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    #619
    typhoony
    Registered Users Posts: 1,493 ✭✭✭typhoony


    at +96hrs we have 3 low centres to the south and it looks like a Fidget Spinner.

    edit: see above pic from SleetAndSnow


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    #620
    SleetAndSnow
    Registered Users Posts: 4,678 ✭✭✭SleetAndSnow


    Taken from Netweather poster Frosty:

    Jetstream coming from the NE :o Rare

    hgt300.png.6576aa77185ed396db73aa8a66cfd4cd.png


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    #621
    gabeeg
    Registered Users Posts: 1,591 ✭✭✭gabeeg


    Would the low make mince meat of streamer activity at his point?

    gfs-0-126.png?18


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    #622
    WolfeEire
    Registered Users Posts: 912 ✭✭✭WolfeEire
    Clare (410ft asl)


    The Pest from the West winning the battle against the Beast from the East in the 18Z GFS.

    www.x.com/wolfeeire



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    #623
    sdanseo
    Registered Users Posts: 9,233 ✭✭✭sdanseo


    WolfeEire wrote: »
    The Pest from the West winning the battle against the Beast from the East in the 18Z GFS.

    Stupidly marginal situation.

    If it goes 100-150km further south, presumably the easterly streamers come back in to play (not too sure about what's needed for that to happen, if anyone could expand?). If it's 100-150km further North it's a nationwide all-out blizzard.

    FI is basically 48-72hrs here. The 12Z ECM is pretty much exactly what we want. Except of course that after it has unloaded its precipitation we'd like a prompt reload of cold from the northeast.


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    #624
    silverharp
    Registered Users Posts: 17,849 ✭✭✭✭silverharp


    a good visual of the jetsream

    https://www.netweather.tv/charts-and-data/global-jetstream#2018/02/26/1200Z/jetstream/surface/level/overlay=jetstream/orthographic=-6.72,57.59,712

    A belief in gender identity involves a level of faith as there is nothing tangible to prove its existence which, as something divorced from the physical body, is similar to the idea of a soul. - Colette Colfer



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    #625
    George Sunsnow
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,043 ✭✭✭George Sunsnow


    pad199207 wrote: »
    Longest sea fetch?

    It’s a northeasterly


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    #626
    sdanseo
    Registered Users Posts: 9,233 ✭✭✭sdanseo


    silverharp wrote: »
    a good visual of the jetsream

    https://www.netweather.tv/charts-and-data/global-jetstream#2018/02/26/1200Z/jetstream/surface/level/overlay=jetstream/orthographic=-6.72,57.59,712

    Double-barelled question here.

    Jetstream is upper level winds.
    Lowe pressure contains warm air, warm air rises.

    Should the jet not therefore be better expelling Emma back to the Algarve?
    Are the models simply having a fit because they aren't used to a NE jet stream?


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    #627
    Oneiric 3
    Registered Users Posts: 6,235 ✭✭✭Oneiric 3


    Tomorrow's Met Éireann chart:

    Gr7OQfp.png

    The opposite of normal.


    Edit: Euro WV animation for today, 'The Beast' drawing closer:
    344y4r8.jpg

    New Moon



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    #628
    silverharp
    Registered Users Posts: 17,849 ✭✭✭✭silverharp


    sdanseo wrote: »
    Double-barelled question here.

    Jetstream is upper level winds.
    Lowe pressure contains warm air, warm air rises.

    Should the jet not therefore be better expelling Emma back to the Algarve?
    Are the models simply having a fit because they aren't used to a NE jet stream?

    It does look like Emma should be nudged down to the algarve

    A belief in gender identity involves a level of faith as there is nothing tangible to prove its existence which, as something divorced from the physical body, is similar to the idea of a soul. - Colette Colfer



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    #629
    George Sunsnow
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,043 ✭✭✭George Sunsnow


    Icon getting favorable mention from Fergie and word of the Gem being considered

    https://twitter.com/fergieweather/status/968250500268388353


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    #630
    Neddyusa
    Registered Users Posts: 1,012 ✭✭✭Neddyusa


    sdanseo wrote: »
    Based on current models it won't turn to rain until late Friday regardless

    We don't want it slipping too far south or we lose out on a Blizzard (from a pro-snowmagedon persepective).

    Based on the trends since yesterday evenings model runs - its looking likely to slip to the south of us entirely, possibly just brushing the south coast as it slides.


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    #631
    George Sunsnow
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,043 ✭✭✭George Sunsnow


    Neddyusa wrote: »
    Based on the trends since yesterday evenings model runs - its looking likely to slip to the south of us entirely, possibly just brushing the south coast as it slides.

    Ah no I’d say the fronts will be up alright north of Dublin but as per Fergies tweet,he still has access to the UKMO guys tech discussions aswell as now all the meteogroup analysis
    It’s literally too close to call


This discussion has been closed.
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