Housing Bubble Bursting

Cantab. · 06-03-2007 1:45am

Say you did decide to put the keys in an envelope, hand them back to the bank and skip the country, would you have to live outside the EU to be untraceable?

My understanding is that, unlike London circa. 1990, our computers/databases are a little more advanced now, and we all have PPS numbers. Can anyone shed any light on this?

KingKenny7 · 06-03-2007 2:42pm

Cantab. wrote:

Say you did decide to put the keys in an envelope, hand them back to the bank and skip the country, would you have to live outside the EU to be untraceable?

My understanding is that, unlike London circa. 1990, our computers/databases are a little more advanced now, and we all have PPS numbers. Can anyone shed any light on this?

I;m sure you'd be caught..

Gurgle · 07-03-2007 9:17am

Cantab. wrote:

Say you did decide to put the keys in an envelope, hand them back to the bank and skip the country, would you have to live outside the EU to be untraceable?

Declare bankruptcy.
Start again from nothing, same way you did when you were 18 or so.

Its not as if you have to spend your entire life paying for the mistake you made burying borrowed money in a speculatory investment.

Here in the 21st century, you won't be thrown in a debtors prison to rot or sold into slavery.

Western_sean · 07-03-2007 10:06am

Declare bankruptcy.
Start again from nothing, same way you did when you were 18 or so.

Surely impairing your ability to borrow at anything but extortionate rates leaves you in an entirely different position to being 18 with a pretty clean credit history?

Its not as if you have to spend your entire life paying for the mistake you made burying borrowed money in a speculatory investment.

I don't see why not? You would have profited from the gain over your entire life so why should you not suffer the cost of your folly?

Afuera · 07-03-2007 11:09am

Gurgle wrote:

Declare bankruptcy.

This isn't the States. I don't think it's that easy to just declare personal bankruptcy like that in Ireland.

07-03-2007 11:41am

Afuera wrote:

This isn't the States. I don't think it's that easy to just declare personal bankruptcy like that in Ireland.

Yeah hardly anyone gets to declare bankruptcy in this country!
In the states and Uk its a totally different game!

HashSlinging · 07-03-2007 12:15pm

I thought you could only declare bankruptcy here if you were a co director.

Zambia · 07-03-2007 2:52pm

HashSlinging wrote:

I thought you could only declare bankruptcy here if you were a co director.

Here is one poor lad that just cant seem to declare it

100,000 debt at 26 ....and no house it seems

http://www.askaboutmoney.com/archive/index.php/t-805.html

07-03-2007 11:23pm

Gurgle wrote:

Declare bankruptcy.

Do you foresee alot of people handing back keys?

I just had a thought - what would stop people to take out loans in the UK or the states provided they had the facility or made it possible - not mortgages but maybe the difference of ten or twenty grand (i.e. the negative equity difference) and not paying it back - or declaring bankruptcy there?

08-03-2007 1:22am

Just in case there are still some doubters about the great pop

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SfR816vhcoQ

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E_V_xuc7XZI

Gurgle · 08-03-2007 9:39am

Deleted User wrote:

Do you foresee alot of people handing back keys?

Nope.

Deleted User wrote:

what would stop people to take out loans in the UK or the states provided they had the facility or made it possible - not mortgages but maybe the difference of ten or twenty grand (i.e. the negative equity difference) and not paying it back - or declaring bankruptcy there?

What would stop them?
Banks don't give loans to people without the ability to pay them back.

RevBlueJeans · 08-03-2007 10:24am

Afuera wrote:

This isn't the States. I don't think it's that easy to just declare personal bankruptcy like that in Ireland.

Unlike the US or the UK I don't think there is any provision in Irish law for personal bankrupcy.

Bluehair · 08-03-2007 10:36am

Gurgle wrote:

Here in the 21st century, you won't be thrown in a debtors prison to rot or sold into slavery.

Actually here in 21st century Ireland we still do throw people in debtors prison. Once you get out the debt is still there waiting for you... nice

Afuera · 08-03-2007 12:10pm

Gurgle wrote:

Banks don't give loans to people without the ability to pay them back.

If this statement was true then how do you explain the current problems facing the banks and financial organizations in the States? Just look at what's happening to New Century and HSBC.

jobless · 08-03-2007 1:10pm

Deleted User wrote:

Just in case there are still some doubters about the great pop

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SfR816vhcoQ

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E_V_xuc7XZI

the second one is some drop in price!

tHE vAGGABOND · 08-03-2007 1:11pm

Just in case there are still some doubters about the great pop

thats conclusive proof - 2 random you tube vid's

time for every Irish homeowner to hand the keys back to the bank right now so

08-03-2007 1:25pm

tHE vAGGABOND wrote:

thats conclusive proof - 2 random you tube vid's

time for every Irish homeowner to hand the keys back to the bank right now so

Actually I wouldnt consider it alone to be conclusive proof - that would be silly but it is circumstantial. And when you factor in the hundreds and hundreds of price drops found on the likes of www.thepropertypin.com and on www.irishhousepricesfalling.blogspot.com (which has archives of drops since last year) and on the new automated website which checks every 4 days for price changes - http://www.irishpropertywatch.com/
Its only running a few days and has recorded a couple of hundred of drops

So its starts to paint a picture doesnt it! If you were thinking of buying you would certainly think twice - if you were thinking of selling it would make you think. But as per your above post I dont think it would make people throw away their keys!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

08-03-2007 1:26pm

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8y7-cl3zqQE

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YMLeJ6Bh15o

two more "random" you tube videos for you
Showing how you can verify the price drops or check for yourself manually

08-03-2007 2:11pm

Rates up .25%

http://www.rte.ie/business/2007/0308/ecb.html

thejuggler · 08-03-2007 2:14pm

As was expected the european central bank have announced another 0.25% increase in interest rates further tightening the screws on mortgage lending and affordability.

T'will be interesting to see the medias take on it.

jobless · 08-03-2007 2:23pm

how many more times do you think they will go up again this year?.

daveirl · 08-03-2007 2:26pm

This post has been deleted.

08-03-2007 2:28pm

jobless wrote:

how many more times do you think they will go up again this year?.

Wait and see what they say at the ECB conference

jobless · 08-03-2007 2:44pm

they wont actually say if there gonna raise them again in the conferance though will they?....

I reckon 1 maybe 2 more....

id be nervous if i were thinking about buying a house

08-03-2007 2:48pm

They will hint at it if they intend on rising rates again - thats how they have been doin things up to now - saying that they will be vigilance on inflation etc etc

tHE vAGGABOND · 08-03-2007 4:01pm

A genuine question for all you doom merchants here..

Is people adjusting their greed, and prices dropping a small bit here and there a sure sign of a massive crash some people in this tread seem certain is on the way?

..and just to argue a bit, a huge amount of the price drops on the websites listed and youtube video's are not in prime area's are they? Random patches of land in Wexford for example? A fair few are in areas where a a massive amount of houses have been built over the last while, in the dublin commuter belts, where you could argue its a matter of supply and demand and the massive range of options people have..

While no one in their right mind cant argue against the market calming down, I really dont see where this crash or bubble burst people talk about is coming from? A slowdown and minor adjustment yes, but nothing insane IMHO. Good places are still being sold quite quickly..

jobless · 08-03-2007 4:24pm

tHE vAGGABOND wrote:

A genuine question for all you doom merchants here..

Is people adjusting their greed, and prices dropping a small bit here and there a sure sign of a massive crash some people in this tread seem certain is on the way?

..and just to argue a bit, a huge amount of the price drops on the websites listed and youtube video's are not in prime area's are they? Random patches of land in Wexford for example? A fair few are in areas where a a massive amount of houses have been built over the last while, in the dublin commuter belts, where you could argue its a matter of supply and demand and the massive range of options people have..

While no one in their right mind cant argue against the market calming down, I really dont see where this crash or bubble burst people talk about is coming from? A slowdown and minor adjustment yes, but nothing insane IMHO. Good places are still being sold quite quickly..

so you think there will only be a crash in parts of the market?....

if you look at property pin you'll see that drops are occuring in all parts of dublin....and at all price levels....

08-03-2007 4:53pm

tHE vAGGABOND wrote:

A genuine question for all you doom merchants here..

Using labels in an attempt to discredit other posters is pathetic.
I have a question for you - Explain the mechanics of a soft landing and how it will happen in Ireland? - Use facts and examples of how this may happen.

Us so called "doom merchants" post facts to support our arguments and I have no doubt that we will see a serious property crash with economic consequences. The facts are there and the longer as politicians and people like you deny the facts the worse trouble we are in. If Ireland faced up to the predicament it is in at least it could start to do something about it.

warrenaldo · 08-03-2007 5:01pm

Lads, personally im hoping the arse falls out of the market as i am a first time buyer who is waiting and saving because i cant afford a place yet. im on the affordable housing list. but would prefer to buy.

Anyway a lot of people here seem to think a crash is 1)happening 2)nealy happening.

Prices have fallen - even from my own pint of view over the last 6 months the same properties that i was looking at have gone down from about 317k to less than 300k for some of the similar properties.

But i have think that this is only because of interest rates increasing. I think every time they raise interest rates people can get a little less of a mortgage. so they are dropping by that amount.

I think that maybe the market has only dropped by the amount increased via the ECB rates.

I also think it has peaked but i think at the moment and forseeable future it will be steady. ie if the ECB rates hadnt of changed then there would have been no drop in house prices - only steadiness.

Just a thought - but id be interested to get feedback on it. and hopefully realise im wrong and the market is falling :-)
cheers

08-03-2007 5:10pm

warrenaldo wrote:

I think that maybe the market has only dropped by the amount increased via the ECB rates.

Yes - the very least the market will fall by would be in relation to interest rates - but we are in a bubble and many other factors would have/or already are brought/bringing about its demise.

40% of buyers up to recently have been investors.
Most of these did not put the properties onto the rental market to avoid capital gains tax. Why did they buy them ? - Because of capital appreciation!
No more capital appreciation because we have a soft landing or a crash
What happens - we lose 40% of buyers overnight.
Market crashes

Housing Bubble Bursting

Comments