Housing Bubble Bursting

jobless

micmclo wrote:

Maybe not everyone is as well informed as the posters in this thread.
I almost laughed when I heard this being said by them. It's actually one of the girls in the office.

I find this thread very interesting and backs up my own beliefs.
I'm not going to offer people advice though, they can make their own decisions and I'm no expert

fair enough its not up to you to give advise.....it should be common sense on their part to know that something is happening to the market if places are being sold below their asking price...
surely in such a high paid job they should be able to put two and two together

jobless

Borzoi wrote:

That's 418 drops in how many listings? I'd guess 50,000 plus, so that's 1% of houses drops.

Then there is the fact the most of the drops are within 10% of the original sale price, which having dealt with estsate agents is well within thoeir margin of error. This would be more illuminating if there was results from last year or two years ago to compare with

Thirdly, agan some EA's have been taking the price for a similar property sold recently adding 5-10% and using that as the sales price. In a market that is levelling out, that will result in properties being over valued, and could explain some of the 'reductions'

I'm not sure what way the whole thing will develop, ATM it seems to me not as bouyant as, say last year, but I don't beleive that there are any major reversals in property values. If rates change significantly, well all bets are off

400 or so is a small amount out of 50000.....but the site is running only two weeks.....last week it had over 200 drops (not included in this weeks) so over the two weeks roughly 600-700 drops...

The figure of 50000 houses is 3-4 times the number of houses on sale this time last year which indicates that houses arent selling as quick anymore... i believe we'll see price drops for some time to come

SkepticOne

jobless wrote:

400 or so is a small amount out of 50000.....but the site is running only two weeks.....last week it had over 200 drops (not included in this weeks) so over the two weeks roughly 600-700 drops...

Yes, it will be very interesting to see how this continues over the next few weeks.

ronbyrne2005

Those 400 drops are only from last several days. Only listings which have been changed to a lower price show up. If someone lists their property at a price much lower than they would have 6 months ago won't show up and if property was listed wih different EA previously it won't show up. Many properties listed in my area have been on sale for 6-12 months and prices have'nt been reduced but they have no chance of selling at asking price which reflected selling prices of 6-12 months ago.

soma

Borzoi wrote:

That's 418 drops in how many listings? I'd guess 50,000 plus, so that's 1% of houses drops.

Just in case there's any confusion here:

- Those drops happened over a fixed time period, i.e. 6 days last week. You are getting a snapshot of website activity for that time period.

- How do I phrase this. Let's just say I disagree with that 50k properties on myhome.ie figure, but that I'm not going to publicly contradict it in case some lawyer decides that it's slander ;-)

jobless

soma wrote:

Just in case there's any confusion here:
- How do I phrase this. Let's just say I disagree with that 50k properties on myhome.ie figure, but that I'm not going to publicly contradict it in case some lawyer decides that it's slander ;-)

i dont get this....why would they lie?

Iristxo

D16. I prefer not to provide links... Up to you to believe this is true or not, sure, other people have provided enough evidence without adding mine to the list!

Western_sean

- Those drops happened over a fixed time period, i.e. 6 days last week. You are getting a snapshot of website activity for that time period.

If we get 1% of houses dropping in price in 6 days at the front end of the "spring selling season", and given that we know supply is mushrooming can we reasonably suggest that we can expect 10%+ of house prices to drop between in 60 days between now and mid May?

If not why not?

And if yes do we expect the downward momentum to increase from there? Again if not why not?

Zambia

Western_sean wrote:

If we get 1% of houses dropping in price in 6 days at the front end of the "spring selling season", and given that we know supply is mushrooming can we reasonably suggest that we can expect 10%+ of house prices to drop between in 60 days between now and mid May?

If not why not?

And if yes do we expect the downward momentum to increase from there? Again if not why not?

This 1% is only as fast as the website owner can get the stuff on it takes trawling to find them

massplanck

Zambia232 wrote:

This 1% is only as fast as the website owner can get the stuff on it takes trawling to find them

Zambia I dont think he has to trawl. Its a fully automated report that pulls price info from myhome afaik.

Any suspect drops can get validated manually with google cache afterwards.

Zambia

massplanck wrote:

Zambia I dont think he has to trawl. Its a fully automated report that pulls price info from myhome afaik.

Any suspect drops can get validated manually with google cache afterwards.

Possibly , Still dont think its a true reflection but thats purley my gut.

This would also not cover people selling there houses under the asking but not changing there advertised asking price online. It also does not detect people who have decided to stay put and withdrawn the house from sale to live or sent it back to being a rental.

This is backed up by Daftwatch which is showing us now at 32,000 Propertys For Sale on it sites as opposed to 28,000 mid febuary.

These are all factors in a property slide I would suspect. The prices drops would really only come up on the propertys that are not shifting at all.

Despite the slide people are still buying property , even apartments. They are just not having to pay the asking...

soma

Zambia232 wrote:

This would also not cover people selling there houses under the asking but not changing there advertised asking price online. It also does not detect people who have decided to stay put and withdrawn the house from sale to live or sent it back to being a rental.

Newsflash - IPW is a website analysis tool. That's it. No more, no less. It'll tell you what price movements happened on some websites over a certain number of days. It does not pretend to be anything else.

Zambia

soma wrote:

Newsflash - IPW is a website analysis tool. That's it. No more, no less. It'll tell you what price movements happened on some websites over a certain number of days. It does not pretend to be anything else.

Never said it did pretend to be anything else, your quote of my comment was pointless. I merely hinted that web activity monitoring is one of the signs there are things that go one outside the web.

That said I would probably agree with your doubt over the 50,000 figure.

digitalninja

Timber!

jobless

Zambia232 wrote:

Never said it did pretend to be anything else, your quote of my comment was pointless. I merely hinted that web activity monitoring is one of the signs there are things that go one outside the web.

That said I would probably agree with your doubt over the 50,000 figure.

why do u think its more or less?

Zambia

jobless wrote:

why do u think its more or less?

less

jobless

Zambia232 wrote:

less

what makes you think this?

Zambia

jobless wrote:

what makes you think this?

Well first and foremost it was a guess in an earlier post , no-one has provided a link/Proof to the 50,000 figure.

Additionally my #822 post re figure in total on Daftwatch, it stands to reason there are some Propertys posted on both sites. So the figure of 50,000 on just myhome alone just seems a bit high. But give it a while and the figure will reach that level IMO.

How many house do you think there are currently on the market in the republic in Total. Question is open to anyone ?

delboy159

Would be virtually impossible to say for sure how many properties are officially for sale at the moment. I can give a great example oh how hard it is to count...
1. The village I wish to buy in is credited with 22 properties on DAFT, one of these properties is in fact an advert for 60+ houses in a development - which shows how low the 22 figure is (should eb at least 80)!
2. I know of 2 specific auctioneers in my area who don't use myhome or DAFT (hard to belive, but true). One is small with about 20 properties for sale, but the other is pretty big - possible twice that number if not more.... None of these figures show up in DAFT or Myhome.
3. I have found properties in my County on funda.ie, that i have never seen advertised before on either myhome or DAFT...


I'm sure the little snapshot of unrecorded properties I'm seeing isn't out of the norm, but unfortunatley it is completley unquantifiable....

With that in mind I'm going to pitch that there could very well be 50k+ properties on sale in ireland at the moment! Scary but possible!

Cantab.

delboy159 wrote:

Would be virtually impossible to say for sure how many properties are officially for sale at the moment. I can give a great example oh how hard it is to count...
1. The village I wish to buy in is credited with 22 properties on DAFT, one of these properties is in fact an advert for 60+ houses in a development - which shows how low the 22 figure is (should eb at least 80)!
2. I know of 2 specific auctioneers in my area who don't use myhome or DAFT (hard to belive, but true). One is small with about 20 properties for sale, but the other is pretty big - possible twice that number if not more.... None of these figures show up in DAFT or Myhome.
3. I have found properties in my County on funda.ie, that i have never seen advertised before on either myhome or DAFT...


I'm sure the little snapshot of unrecorded properties I'm seeing isn't out of the norm, but unfortunatley it is completley unquantifiable....

With that in mind I'm going to pitch that there could very well be 50k+ properties on sale in ireland at the moment! Scary but possible!

Anyone who's been listening to RTE radio over the last couple of weeks will vouch that myhome.ie have been bragging about the fact that they have the largest number of properties for sale, and that there are over 50,000 properties for sale on myhome.ie

soma

delboy159 wrote:

2. I know of 2 specific auctioneers in my area who don't use myhome or DAFT (hard to belive, but true). One is small with about 20 properties for sale, but the other is pretty big - possible twice that number if not more.... None of these figures show up in DAFT or Myhome.

Delboy, do you know if these properties would be found on PropertyPartners.ie? I've been thinking of adding PropertyPartners to IrishPropertyWatch, as I suspect that it may contain alot of rural houses not found on other websites?

soma

Cantab. wrote:

Anyone who's been listening to RTE radio over the last couple of weeks will vouch that myhome.ie have been bragging about the fact that they have the largest number of properties for sale, and that there are over 50,000 properties for sale on myhome.ie

From my.. *ahem* experience, Daft would dwarf MyHome based on pure numbers. However, I cannot (yet) ascertain how many of Daft's listed properties are duplicates/dinosaur out of date entries etc.

DonJose

Zambia232 wrote:

How many house do you think there are currently on the market in the republic in Total. Question is open to anyone ?

That is impossible to say, for example some developments are listed under one listing, that development might have 50 houses for sale. If there are 100 of this listings thats 5,000 houses. The town where I live, Mullingar, has a population of roughly 20,000. Last years the number of daft listings were around 70, now there are over 300 plus at least a half dozen development listings, I don't think Property Partners advertise on daft.ie anymore. I would guestimate there are over 500 properties for sale here in Mullingar.

Zambia

DonJose wrote:

I don't think Property Partners advertise on daft.ie anymore. .

I know they did last year , but they could have changed would not be the wisest move , but they could have.

sapper

I owned a 3 bed terraced house in Phibsboro 50/50 with a friend since 2001. We had been renting it out since since 2005, but since last year things had gotten a bit acromonious between us and we agreed that we would sell the house at auction - that way if either of us wanted to buy out the other he would have to pay the "market price" as determined at an open auction and outbid anyone else who was interested in it.

The auction was yesterday. We had it up for AMV 500,000 with a reserve price also being 500,000. The house would have probably sold for up to 550-570K at the height of the madness last year. So it was at a good price….

15 or so people came to see it but in the end only one person came to the auction, and they didn't bid in the auction room but instead offered the just AMV afterwards (probably didn't want to put down the 10% deposit and sign a contract there and then).

My friend bought me out at 500K, paid the deposit and signed the contract. I wanted out of the property game - he obviously wanted more property, so good luck to him.

Besides that I was talking to the agent beforehand - he was trying to explain the non-existant turnout and he said that although he was still selling properties, none of the houses that he they have sold had hit their advertised price.

Just to keep you updated from the trenches….

nusername

Zambia232 wrote:

How many house do you think there are currently on the market in the republic in Total. Question is open to anyone ?

As has been pointed out by cantab, myhome.ie are advertising they have over 50000 homes for sale in the republic.

Mr Snrub

http://www.asai.ie/complaint_view.asp?CID=301&BID=13

Seems like Myhome might actually be a distant third in all this. Link above contains details of Daft.ie successfully stopping Propertynews.com from advertising as the largest property website in Ireland, on the basis of a lot less properties! 50,000 might have been just made up!

Zambia

That was a good find ...nice link

www.Propertynews.com would be the big one up North but I doubt it contains anything south that could not be found on myhome or Daft.

http://irishpropertywatch.5gbfree.com/ipw_daft_report1_200307.html

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

FOUR HUNDRED AND TWENTY TWO PRICE DROPS

pwd

all the ones with a drop over 10% are outside Dublin, I notice