When will it all end?

Risteard81 wrote: »

I already answered that the Dublin Administration is not the Irish Government.

You might have said that alright but does not answer my question.

Do NPHET advise the Irish government and enact legislation where you currently reside?

The green eyed monster is appearing here with all my UK friends posting competitions for entry into pubs beer gardens and free cocktails on the 12th of april.

This was your original post I responded to:

Risteard81 wrote: »

They hardly want to state that they have imposed unconstitutional, Treasonous totalitarian restrictions and impositions on our lives in the name of a disease which isn't actually particularly dangerous. So they must pretend that it is dangerous and never admit that what they did was wrong.

For the avoidance of doubt, no matter how dangerous a disease was would never make Treasonous totalitarian restrictions and impositions lawful or proportionate - they would always be Treasonous. These so-called politicians and their cheerleaders (including NPHET) must be indicted for Treason.

All I asked was why you are making these comments on a place that has no influence on where you currently reside.

Risteard81 wrote: »

If they're not the Irish Government then they don't advise (or actually dictate to) the Irish Government anywhere.

I would appreciate if you would stop trying to derail this thread, however.

If you think I am derailing the thread use the system in place to report that.

Risteard81 wrote: »

The Six Counties are in your own country. To think they'll be open is somewhat optimistic, however.

I didn't look into it too much so open to correction but seen today the uk had 4000 case to frances 42000 with similar populations, results like that I can't see why not.

Risteard81 wrote: »

Because there are poisonous snakes imposing Treasonous totalitarian restrictions on the populous everywhere. Not only does this happen throughout Ireland, but has happened throughout the world. I personally trust and pray that their punishment will be swift, severe and brutal.

Did you get vaccinated yet up there? I am concerned hyperbole is a side effect based on your posts.

mightyreds wrote: »

The green eyed monster is appearing here with all my UK friends posting competitions for entry into pubs beer gardens and free cocktails on the 12th of april.

My local has a MASSIVE beer garden, band already booked for live music too

mightyreds wrote: »

Are you in the north/UK?

Cheshire.

mightyreds wrote: »

Ah so jealous, miss the buzz of live music even the 2 weeks we got here no music or tv noise allowed.

They have built a huge marquee outside, an outside bar and a weatherproof stage for big screen, outdoors seats about 200 so should be a decent first weekend

Risteard81 wrote: »

Because there are poisonous snakes imposing Treasonous totalitarian restrictions on the populous everywhere. Not only does this happen throughout Ireland, but has happened throughout the world. I personally trust and pray that their punishment will be swift, severe and brutal.

Mod: Risteard81, Timberrrrrrrr - don't post in the thread again.

Graham wrote: »

It's been mentioned in a few places:

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/world/uk/uk-plans-to-offer-3-7-million-covid-19-vaccine-jabs-to-republic-report-1.4522144

There's another article somewhere that quotes the British Ambassador along the same lines.

That says they’re considering it, not that it’s happening.

I imagine we would be first in line to get surplus vaccines as we share a land border with the uk. We’ll have to see what happens.

How many people have actually died of Covid 19? The Irish Times reported that 85% of the deaths had at least one serious underlying condition the other day. In a country like Ireland with a high standard of living the chances of you dying of just Covid has to be very close to zero.

I’d say the political class are pinching themselves at what they have been able to get away with. It seems all people are aiming at is changing the 5km rule to 10km.... what a sad state of affairs. Being able to go 10km from home is the benchmark for freedom these days, it just boggles the mind.

I don’t know where that stereotype of the fighting Irish comes from but it couldn’t be any farther than the truth.. we’ve rolled over big time.

This horror show can’t go on.

All these people who advocate severe lockdowns as a containment measure for a virus, when will enough be enough? You can’t eradicate it completely by hiding inside and wearing masks so where do we draw the line? Until everyone is vaccinated? What about variants? At what stage do we admit this will be endemic and just get on with things? For the sake of this virus we have destroyed pretty much all that is good about life. Job, social life, hobbies etc I’m at my wits end I’ve never felt so terrible in my life.

The longer this drags on the more ridiculous it gets. Covid is such a harmless virus I guarantee if we opened everything up tomorrow and had the vulnerable shield absolutely nothing would happen. The sky wouldn’t fall down, the hospitals wouldn’t be overflowing with bodies etc Sweden have been at it the better part of the year.

I get the sense, from talking to some people that they can hardly remember things before this. I’m only half joking when I go on about the Covidian religion. It’s like this new normal is a preferable situation for them and they would do anything to protect this prison lockdown experiment. The amount of talk you are hearing already about wearing masks and socially distancing forever even after covid becomes old news.I genuinely feel like the anomaly lab rat who isn’t doing well in the experiment.

Graham wrote: »

That would be my thinking too.

The US had suggested it might send us some vaccines when they’re done too. We’ll get sorted with as many adults as possible before winter whatever happens. That’s the best we can hope for. And we’ll be ahead of the vast majority of the world with that. We’re currently ahead of about 90% of the the world in vaccination rate. Not too shabby.

Back of the envelope projections from me.

Vaccination looks to start to have an effect on transmission at around 30 days after 30 vaccines are administered per 100 people. This has held for the UK, UAE and Israel. Lots and lots of caveats here, most notably the level of infection, level of restrictions, how you administer the vaccine, (the effect in the UK was a lot faster because they are focusing on first doses) and how fast you administer the vaccine. Side note that cases in Chile and Bahrain are still rising 18 and 21 days respectively after they reached 30 per 100 people. Both are extensively using Chinese vaccines Sinovac and Sinopharm, however the UAE are also using Sinopharm and saw a drop almost immediately when they hit the 30 number. These will be two very interesting countries to watch in the next few weeks.

Assuming a vaccination rate in Ireland of 0.6 vaccines per 100 people per day in April, we should reach 30 does per 100 people around the 21st of April. I don't see any meaningful lifting of restrictions at this time but we should start to see the beginning of some downward pressure on overall cases driven by vaccination. Judging by our level of restrictions and infection, I think we are closer to the UK and Israel than we are to Chile and Bahrain.

The second big drop in Israel happened at 65 doses per 100 people. The UAE is the only other country to reach this landmark and also saw an appreciable drop. Ireland, assuming an average vaccination rate of 0.7 vaccines per 100 people per day in May, should reach the 65 landmark around the 3rd of June. I think at this point we will have seen significant downward pressure on cases and around the start of June we should see something resembling level 3 with a focus on outdoor socialising.

There was another less significant increase in the rate of the drop in cases in Israels unstoppable downward slope at around 80 cases per day. Assuming a rate of vaccination of 0.8 per day in June, we should reach this level on the 22nd of June. At this point, we will continue to see fewer cases and there will be pressure to relax more restrictions at the start of July.

At around 100 vaccines per day, Israel had already effectively fully opened their society to those who had been vaccinated. Assuming that we are pushing 0.9 vaccines per day by the end of June we should see us reach 100 by the 15th of July. I think its very hard to predict how our government will open up at this stage, at worst I would expect a return to level 3 with fewer restrictions than last summer. At best we could fully open for those vaccinated. My guess is that we would be at something resembling level 2 for all people with retail and social distanced indoor dining returning.

At the next milestone of 120 vaccines per 100 people, we are flying blind as nowhere with a significant population has reached this milestone. Assuming we are vaccinating 1 person per 100 per day by the middle of July we should get to 120 vaccines per 100 people by around the 5th of August.

The next big milestone in my mind is 150 vaccines per 100 people. This is where you can start to think about herd immunity. Assuming we don't have trouble with vaccine hesitancy and there are no unforeseen supply issues, we should reach this point around the end of August. I think at this point we are at Level 1 where we have all restrictions removed, except for social distancing and mask wearing indoors, including a complete return to work for all who want to and a return to normal international travel with the EU, US, UK and Canada.

The last milestone is about 180 vaccines per 100 people. This is entire population who can be vaccinated being vaccinated, I'm assuming at this point all teenagers will be approved to be vaccinated and we will be left with the under 12's, pregnant women and some extremely vulnerable categories. Best case scenario, we reach this point at around the 25th of September. At this stage, supply should be no issue and it will be convincing people who are vaccine hesitant to take the shot. If we get to this point, I see a beginning of a slow phase out of social distancing and mask wearing as immunity takes hold. How fast this happens depends on government hesitancy but mostly I think on the experiences of other countries. The UK will be well ahead of us and I imagine we will follow their lead. Ireland play New Zealand on the 20th of November in the Aviva, optimistically I think we will see a full stadium with full pubs afterwards for that game.

I think the vaccination program will continue well into 2022. I imagine the vaccine will be approved for children by the end of the year and we will see a booster jab to deal with variants around the end of the year too. I think a total return to normal will be seen early in 2022, where we stop seeing domestic case numbers in the news and the covid focus will be on vaccinating the 3rd world. I think we see global vaccination finish around the end of 2022.

[Deleted User] wrote: »

But I actually don't think, based on opinion poll after opinion poll, the majority of the British people would have a problem with years of testing in schools, vaccine passports and Dr Mary Ramsay's prediction of mask-wearing and social distancing for years to come. I think it's wise to be wary of opinion polls, but a large percentage of the population appear to fully support what the Government is doing.

I’ll take your word for it on the opinion polls. It’s a new topic. Nobody knows what the future holds so if I was asked “would you put up with tests now and again and wearing masks if it was necessary for an otherwise normal life?” I’d answer yes. If I was asked if I would I like tests and wearing masks, I’d answer no.

The facts are not known yet so people’s opinions are probably open to change over the next months and years as facts emerge.