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Is anyone considering a one way ticket out of Ireland?

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    #122
    Xertz
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,069 ✭✭✭Xertz


    One of the issues with this is that during recessions and times of crisis here we have historically had places to bolt to - the US, Canada, the UK, continental Europe and right now all of those are in similar circumstances and the recession is very likely to be symmetric and global.

    The countries that have it under wraps like New Zealand is just extremely far away from everything. Ireland, despite being an island is deeply connected, an hour and a bit away from most of Western Europe and mega hubs like London, Paris, Amsterdam, Frankfurt, Madrid, Milan etc and also closer to the US Northeast than some parts of the US and flights were plentiful and cheap.

    The likes of NZ will not be open or welcoming to European visitors for some time to come. Nor will Australia and neither have ever had open doors for residency - there’s a complex visa process, as there is the other way around too btw.

    As for China? Would you really want to live there long term and do you believe their stats? I would tend to read them with a large degree of suspicion. You’re not exactly talking about a country known for transparency - a lot of things never officially happened there ...

    Basically I think we’re just going to have to ride this one out and I would hope that Ireland is quite capable of doing so. We have one of the saner governments and political systems. A lot of the employment drivers here are also like to do relatively ok - IT sector companies do used on cloud infrastructure that’s hugely in demand, pharma / biophama and so on and if they keep ticking over, the domestic focused economy may be able to pick up relatively quickly and we have a stable currency so you’re unlikely to see massive inflation.

    Overall it’s going to be a hair raising few years no maybe where you are and this time around Ireland could be one of the places that does relatively ok.

    It remains to be seen but, so far, I wouldn’t be rushing to boom a plane ticket. A lot will depend on how things on out in the 12 - 24 months ahead.

    There are big risks but they’re similar everywhere. I would be iffy about jumping out of the frying pan and into some other frying pan, if not the fire. A lot of things are far too soon to call and the whole situation is without any precedent in a modern economy.


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    #123
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    I've thanked Xertz's post.

    The only annoyance for me is those Irish personalities on current affairs Radio who are under the impression because of their own supposed "eminance" / "authority" / "professional standing"

    that

    they can criticise the heck out of for example "the governments slow reaction to the crisis".


    The same "angry men" and "angry women" can go ....
    What annoys me is that they are in well paid employment or self employment. I just really wish now that one of them would blow a circuit in such an "outrage"

    They seem more conspicuous here in Ireland than anywhere else like UK USA Europe rest of world.


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    #124
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    Xertz wrote: »
    As for China? Would you really want to live there long term and do you believe their stats? I would tend to read them with a large degree of suspicion. You’re not exactly talking about a country known for transparency - a lot of things never officially happened there ...

    I do live there long term, and I have no problem with their lack of transparency. I'll likely be returning there within roughly a months time. Many of my expat friends have already returned and haven't gotten sick or reported any serious problems.


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    #125
    ShineOn7
    Closed Accounts Posts: 4,550 ✭✭✭ShineOn7


    Deleted User wrote: »
    I do live there long term, and I have no problem with their lack of transparency. I'll likely be returning there within roughly a months time. Many of my expat friends have already returned and haven't gotten sick or reported any serious problems.


    You've no problem returning to China and their government after admitting yourself that they lie?


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    #126
    corks finest
    Registered Users Posts: 8,667 ✭✭✭corks finest


    ShineOn7 wrote: »
    You've no problem returning to China and their government after admitting yourself that they lie?

    The Chinese government is responsible for all these death's irrespective of ppl not social distancing,it's started there ,they're bloody pariahs


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    #127
    Monokne
    Registered Users Posts: 3,929 ✭✭✭Monokne


    corks finest wrote: »
    The Chinese government is responsible for all these death's irrespective of ppl not social distancing,it's started there ,they're bloody pariahs

    WOW :eek:


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    #128
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    ShineOn7 wrote: »
    You've no problem returning to China and their government after admitting yourself that they lie?

    Nope. Not in the slightest. I've always known that the CCP lies... that's been the case for decades. Do you have a problem with living in Ireland when SF and FF lie?

    The simple truth is that most people get on with their lives, and the behavior of the government is of little concern until it directly affects their lifestyles.


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    #129
    ShineOn7
    Closed Accounts Posts: 4,550 ✭✭✭ShineOn7


    Deleted User wrote: »
    Nope. Not in the slightest. I've always known that the CCP lies... that's been the case for decades. Do you have a problem with living in Ireland when SF and FF lie?


    I'd probably chance my arm with a country jointly led by Hitler and Stalin before the CCP


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    #130
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    ShineOn7 wrote: »
    I'd probably chance my arm with a country jointly led by Hitler and Stalin before the CCP

    I wouldn't. There are some really bizarre notions of what life is like in China, and the risks therein.

    I've lived there 11 years. Never been arrested. Never had any serious problems with the police. I don't know of any foreigner with serious problems except for those engaging in criminal activities (which are also illegal in their own countries), and in each case, except for one, they were deported rather than held in Chinese prisons. The one exception was a rape/murder case.

    I wouldn't want to be Chinese and live in China... but that's more to do with options for education, social mobility, etc. than any real fear of the government. You can stay off the official radar pretty easily if you put a little bit of thought into it... and yes, that's what Chinese friends/colleagues have told me.


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    #131
    ShineOn7
    Closed Accounts Posts: 4,550 ✭✭✭ShineOn7


    Xertz wrote: »
    It remains to be seen but, so far, I wouldn’t be rushing to boom a plane ticket. A lot will depend on how things on out in the 12 - 24 months ahead.


    Certain countries won't survive another 6 months of no tourists, let alone upto 2 years. Bali and Spain spring to mind


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    #132
    Spanish Eyes
    Registered Users Posts: 15,922 ✭✭✭✭Spanish Eyes


    ShineOn7 wrote: »
    Certain countries won't survive another 6 months of no tourists, let alone upto 2 years. Bali and Spain spring to mind

    Sorry but our own country relies to a large extent on tourism also.

    But we will survive hopefully. I have no truck with other country's tourism issues right now. They reap what they sow.

    Before Covid there was a lot of talk about the glut of tourists in places like Barcelona, Venice, and so on.

    Cruise ships mostly.


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    #133
    eddie73
    Registered Users Posts: 647 ✭✭✭eddie73


    There is nowhere to run.

    We have to suck this up. I believe that we will but the changes in the aftermath of this episode are going to be most disruptive.


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    #134
    BENDYBINN
    Registered Users Posts: 1,836 ✭✭✭BENDYBINN


    ShineOn7 wrote: »
    Certain countries won't survive another 6 months of no tourists, let alone upto 2 years. Bali and Spain spring to mind

    Spain had introduced a tourist tax of 4-5euro a night payable at the hotel on arrival.....we have too many tourists they said..

    The phrase be careful what you ask for comes to mind..


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    #135
    ednwireland
    Registered Users Posts: 14,339 ✭✭✭✭ednwireland


    Spanish Eyes wrote: »
    Sorry but our own country relies to a large extent on tourism also.

    But we will survive hopefully. I have no truck with other country's tourism issues right now. They reap what they sow.

    Before Covid there was a lot of talk about the glut of tourists in places like Barcelona, Venice, and so on.

    Cruise ships mostly.

    irelands tourism % of gdp is 6.2%

    spains is 11.7%

    yes i was suprised irelands was that low

    My weather

    https://www.ecowitt.net/home/share?authorize=96CT1F



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    #136
    Cupatae
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 1,915 ✭✭✭Cupatae


    ednwireland wrote: »
    irelands tourism % of gdp is 6.2%

    spains is 11.7%

    yes i was suprised irelands was that low

    The hotels were only gettin back on there feet, id say this will bury quite a few of em.


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    #137
    ShineOn7
    Closed Accounts Posts: 4,550 ✭✭✭ShineOn7


    Cupatae wrote: »
    The hotels were only gettin back on there feet, id say this will bury quite a few of em.


    Maybe if Dublin two star hotels didn't ask for 230 euros for a Saturday night stay they wouldn't be in that position


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    #138
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 5,917 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    ShineOn7 wrote: »
    Maybe if Dublin two star hotels didn't ask for 230 euros for a Saturday night stay they wouldn't be in that position

    Not just Dublin unfortunately.


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    #139
    Cupatae
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 1,915 ✭✭✭Cupatae


    ShineOn7 wrote: »
    Maybe if Dublin two star hotels didn't ask for 230 euros for a Saturday night stay they wouldn't be in that position

    Life exists outside of dublin aswell you know.


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    #140
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    Cupatae wrote: »
    Life exists outside of dublin aswell you know.

    But Dublin is the main focus point for tourism... and it is bloody expensive. Not simply the hotels but overall, it's far more expensive to stay there a few days than it should be.


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    #141
    Risteard81
    Registered Users Posts: 2,567 ✭✭✭Risteard81


    ShineOn7 wrote: »
    Certain countries won't survive another 6 months of no tourists, let alone upto 2 years. Bali and Spain spring to mind

    Bali's not a country. It's an Indonesian island.


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    #142
    ShineOn7
    Closed Accounts Posts: 4,550 ✭✭✭ShineOn7


    Risteard81 wrote: »
    Bali's not a country. It's an Indonesian island.


    If you insist on getting pedantic, it's an Indonesian province


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    #143
    MadYaker
    Registered Users Posts: 12,180 ✭✭✭✭MadYaker


    Might go back France for a while if things start to open up quicker there.


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    #144
    Xertz
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,069 ✭✭✭Xertz


    I’d be slow to go to urban France until I see where this goes in terms of potential social unrest. There’s going to be a lot of socioeconomic impact and there may be a long phase of signifiant restrictions. They had far more profound impacts in terms of death tolls and strain on health services than we’ve had.

    France was already having major urban violent protests before this kicked off and some of the conspiracy theories whirling around online en français are likely to create absolute tinder box as the lid is lifted.

    The U.K. wouldn’t be high on my list of places to visit for a good few more months either until I see them both get things under control and see how things play out socioeconomically there. The political leadership is just unprecedentedly toxic.

    Ireland’s likely to reopen things relatively sanely by the looks of things. It’s more likely to be in line with some of the Northern European countries, but I think we are letting the likes of Denmark and a few others make the first moves and monitoring carefully to avoid any misstep.


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    #145
    Xertz
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,069 ✭✭✭Xertz


    ednwireland wrote: »
    irelands tourism % of gdp is 6.2%

    spains is 11.7%

    yes i was suprised irelands was that low

    Yeah, we tend to imagine we’ve a lot more dependency on tourism than we actually do. The reality is we are one of the lesser tourism dependent countries in the EU and OECD. Significantly less than the U.K. (around 11% of GDP), US or Germany for example.

    It’ll be big issue for southern Spain for while, but I also suspect EU tourists will want to travel to the EU for quite a long time. It will have the market to itself without competition from cheaper destinations like Turkey, parts of North Africa and places with weak healthcare systems.

    Also far flung destinations aren’t going to be cheap or attractive to fly to for a long while.

    So I could see a slump then a boom in Spain, Portugal, France, Italy and so on.

    Social distancing requirements could well set aviation back 30 years in terms of ticket prices.

    My guess is you’re going to be paying €500+ for a flight to the Costa del Sol for the next while. Until airlines can get volumes and economies of scale back.

    So basically you’d be looking at flying being more like 1980s pricing relative to income.

    Ireland well see strong domestic tourism for several years too until people become more adventurous and planes start flying at cheap rates again.

    I could also see the car ferry to France and the gîtes and so on becoming a big thing again too. It’s much easier for ferries to socially distance as they’ve loads of space on board and it’s much easier to travel by car.


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    #146
    ILoveYourVibes
    Registered Users Posts: 15,176 ✭✭✭✭ILoveYourVibes


    To where? Everywhere is the same or worse.


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    #147
    ShineOn7
    Closed Accounts Posts: 4,550 ✭✭✭ShineOn7


    Xertz wrote: »

    My guess is you’re going to be paying €500+ for a flight to the Costa del Sol for the next while. Until airlines can get volumes and economies of scale back.


    The greatest threat that the aviation industry has ever seen and they've zero money coning in now, yet you think the likes of Ryanair will charge 500 euros for Ireland to Spain?


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    #148
    Xertz
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,069 ✭✭✭Xertz


    ShineOn7 wrote: »
    The greatest threat that the aviation industry has ever seen and they've zero money coning in now, yet you think the likes of Ryanair will charge 500 euros for Ireland to Spain?

    They will if they are the only game in town and they’ve very few seats available because of social distancing.

    Why would you think Ryanair would cut fares?

    Many of their competitors will be out of business in the months ahead by the looks of it and there’ll be few flights for quite some time to come.

    Ryanair’s current model is high volume and low margin. If they can’t do that, they’ve a huge cash pile and could, until business is back to normal, really hike the fares.

    I think you’re looking at 1 to 2 years where travel is going to be very expensive as the competition and volume isn’t going to be coming back sooner than that.

    If you can’t load the planes to capacity, low price high volume model doesn’t work. So you’ll have to go with high price low volume.

    You’re potentially looking at travel more like the 1980s

    The only thing I would say they’d different is you’ll have large fleets of brand new aircraft going cheap to anyone who can make them operate at a profit.

    The sense I get though is this won’t be resolving itself until 2021/22.

    The prospect of a vaccine is still not that close and if it follows previous pandemics, this could be only the first wave.


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    #149
    s1ippy
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 2,980 ✭✭✭s1ippy


    Xertz wrote: »
    They will if they are the only game in town and they’ve very few seats available because of social distancing.

    Why would you think Ryanair would cut fares?

    Many of their competitors will be out of business in the months ahead by the looks of it and there’ll be few flights for quite some time to come.

    Ryanair’s current model is high volume and low margin. If they can’t do that, they’ve a huge cash pile and could, until business is back to normal, really hike the fares.

    I think you’re looking at 1 to 2 years where travel is going to be very expensive as the competition and volume isn’t going to be coming back sooner than that.

    If you can’t load the planes to capacity, low price high volume model doesn’t work. So you’ll have to go with high price low volume.

    You’re potentially looking at travel more like the 1980s

    The only thing I would say they’d different is you’ll have large fleets of brand new aircraft going cheap to anyone who can make them operate at a profit.

    The sense I get though is this won’t be resolving itself until 2021/22.

    The prospect of a vaccine is still not that close and if it follows previous pandemics, this could be only the first wave.
    Michael O'Leary did an interview sruth Sky yesterday where he said in July and August they would be having a massive sale on budget flights and accommodation.

    He also attacked the other airlines who were looking for bailouts and called out Richard Branson by name. I think he wants to fight him.

    He's absolutely deluded if he thinks there will be any chance of people being able to travel then. I suspect he realises they won't but just wants to get people thinking about it so that they would do it at the first opportunity.

    Harvard scientists reckon 2022.
    https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/04/coronavirus-social-distancing-how-long/


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    #150
    Risteard81
    Registered Users Posts: 2,567 ✭✭✭Risteard81


    ShineOn7 wrote: »
    If you insist on getting pedantic, it's an Indonesian province
    And island actually.


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    #151
    Xertz
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,069 ✭✭✭Xertz


    O’Leary is a master of getting the brand highlighted by being controversial and that will get headlines.

    The reality of it is quite different if they’re required to implement social distancing and if destinations can’t really deal with mass tourism in the same way as we’ve been used to for years.

    It’s going to be weird for a few years, but not forever.

    I don’t really see how he’s going to be able to do what he’s proposing in that interview. The issue isn’t lack of demand due to high prices. It’s lack of demand due to technical barriers making it impossible to load planes to maximum capacity. The reason the planes won’t fill isn’t going to be about ticket price. It’s about potential restrictions for health reasons.

    You’re also looking at a scenario with potentially serious dips in demand due to what could turn into unprecedented global recession/depression and that will cause a slump in leisure travel regardless.

    If airlines have to say reduce capacity by 50% - 75% to make social distancing possible, the low fares model might mean charging less than BA or Air France, but it’s really going to be setting that pricing bar way way higher than it is today.

    My guess is Ryanair could even end up morphing into what resembles more of a mainstream, fuller service airline, possibly even picking up slots in more major airports than far flung places, as they’ve the cash and flexibility to survive this in a way most won’t.


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