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10-07-2018, 19:01   #16
Meteorite58
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Any one got any idea what the likely wind speeds in something like that would be?


GFS 12Z taking it away from our shores and not looking windy on this run , bit to go yet though to know for certain but on the lead up to this over the last number of days it has never looked that windy. ECM the same keeping it away from our shores yet a different track. ( ECM 12Z coming out shortly will see the latest )









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10-07-2018, 19:24   #17
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Some debate coming out of America on will it reach Hurricane status.

https://twitter.com/NOAASatellites/s...19830655922181

https://twitter.com/StuOstro/status/1016729054152667136

The Jet not looking particularly strong going into the weekend so not giving the remnants of Chris a bit of oomph to keep up the wind speeds.



https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1016749971335331840

Last edited by Meteorite58; 10-07-2018 at 19:27.
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10-07-2018, 23:43   #18
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Officially Hurricane Chris now making it the second Hurricane of the season. Set to be a short lived Hurricane even after intensifying over the next 12 hrs or so. Big difference in the water temp off Nova Scotia and Newfoundland.

The models showing the remnants getting a bit closer to Ireland , winds not too strong at present ( showing up to 50 60 km/h along the coasts atm )

NHC




Hurricane Chris Discussion Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032018
500 PM EDT Tue Jul 10 2018

Reports from an Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft indicate
that Chris has finally attained hurricane status, making it the
second hurricane thus far this season, which is ahead of climatology
by more than six weeks. The aircraft found 850-mb flight-level winds
of 88 kt in the southeastern quadrant, along with SFMR winds of
73-77 kt. Dropsondes in the the same area found equivalent surface
winds of 73-74 kt, and the most recent central pressure observed was
980 mb. Furthermore, satellite intensity estimates are a consensus
T4.5/77 kt from TAFB, SAB, and UW-CIMSS ADT, based on a well-defined
20-nmi-diameter clear eye. These data support a solid 75-kt advisory
intensity.

The initial motion is a slightly faster 050/09 kt. Chris is north of
a narrow subtropical ridge, and water vapor imagery also indicates
that Chris is beginning to feel the influence of a digging trough
over the northeastern U.S. and Mid-Atlantic states. The combination
of these two features should gradually accelerate the hurricane
northeastward at a faster forward speed through 96 hours. By the
time Chris passes well southeast of Nova Scotia in 36 hours or so,
the hurricane will be moving at a forward speed of more than 25 kt.
On the new forecast track, Chris is still expected to move near or
over southeastern Newfoundland in about 48-60 hours. The latest
model guidance has a much larger spread in both cross-track and
along-track motions. To smooth out these differences, the new
forecast track is down the middle of the tighter HCCA, FSSE, and
TVCN consensus model suite.

Now that Chris has moved away from the cold upwelling region, some
additional intensification is forecast for the next 12 hours or so
due to 27-28 deg C SSTs beneath the cyclone and the well-established
current outflow pattern that is expected to persist during that
time. Slow weakening should begin shortly after Chris peaks in
intensity due to the cyclone moving over cooler waters, creating
some modest upwelling as a result. By 36 hours, Chris will have
moved well north of the Gulfstream and be moving over SSTs colder
than 15 deg C. The combination of the much colder water and
southwesterly vertical wind shear in excess of 30 kt should induce a
rapid transition to an extratropical cyclone. The official intensity
forecast is above the intensity guidance through 12 hours, and then
shows weakening after that similar to the LGEM and IVCN models.

Now that Chris is moving away from the United States, the
previously scheduled aircraft mission for 11/0600 UTC has been
canceled.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/2100Z 33.7N 72.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 11/0600Z 34.9N 70.7W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 11/1800Z 37.1N 67.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 12/0600Z 40.5N 62.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 12/1800Z 44.7N 57.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 13/1800Z 51.0N 41.2W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 14/1800Z 55.2N 22.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 15/1800Z 59.0N 12.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Stewart
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10-07-2018, 23:46   #19
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The Azores high just said, "hey thanks, Chris, I was on my last legs and you came along, I can rest while you do my work."

Well that's what I think it said.
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10-07-2018, 23:57   #20
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In all its glory.

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11-07-2018, 19:21   #21
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I've never seen this level of uncertainty actually acknowledged in an NHC forecast before (the uncertainty has certainly existed and does so regularly, just don't recall them making such a point of it)

perhaps more notably, for a Hurricane initially progged as only being a hurricane for a few hours before rapidly dissipating, it is now only 11kt off major hurricane status.

Quote:
Originally Posted by NHC

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refres...l/111457.shtml?


EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY


OUTLOOK VALID 15/1200Z 62.0N 16.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 16/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 36.4N 67.8W

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11-07-2018, 19:50   #22
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Originally Posted by sdanseo View Post
I've never seen this level of uncertainty actually acknowledged in an NHC forecast before (the uncertainty has certainly existed and does so regularly, just don't recall them making such a point of it)

perhaps more notably, for a Hurricane initially progged as only being a hurricane for a few hours before rapidly dissipating, it is now only 11kt off major hurricane status.
They regularly (if not always) highlight the errors out at extended periods.
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11-07-2018, 23:10   #23
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A shift more towards Iceland on the latest guidance , well away from Ireland. Interesting reading from the NHC how it passes over an ocean thermal ridge of 28C around now associated with the gulf Stream maintaining strength and within 24 hrs will be passing over SST's colder than 12C coupled with a strong SW'ly wind shear which will bring about rapid weakening and transition to extra tropical cyclone.

Worth keeping an eye on the remnants of Beryl which has a chance of cyclone development in the days ahead.






NHC


1. The remnants of Beryl continue to produce a broad area of
disorganized showers and thunderstorms over much of the Bahamas
and extending northeastward over the western Atlantic for a few
hundred miles. Little or no development is expected today, but
conditions could become a little more favorable later in the week
and over the weekend while the disturbance moves slowly northward
and northeastward over the western Atlantic. Additional information
on this disturbance can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by
the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be
found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and
on the Web at http://ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml.

Forecaster Stewart
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11-07-2018, 23:15   #24
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Just a fun fact about Chris:

https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/st...89206680629250

Atlantic hurricane activity might start to really ramp up come September.

https://twitter.com/webberweather/st...93412909146112
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14-07-2018, 17:26   #26
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NHC now saying Beryl remnants are certain to reform into a new storm. Further update imminent

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06-08-2018, 16:21   #27
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https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/st...31883158368257
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15-08-2018, 09:02   #28
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Seasonal forecasters with NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center have increased the likelihood of a below-normal Atlantic hurricane season to 60 percent (up from 25 percent in May) in the updated outlook, issued today. The likelihood of a near-normal season is now at 30 percent, and the chance of an above-normal season has dropped from 35 percent to 10 percent.
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To produce the seasonal update, forecasters take several factors into account. El Nino is now much more likely to develop with enough strength to suppress storm development during the latter part of the season. Today, NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center updated its forecast to a nearly 70 percent likelihood of El Nino during the hurricane season.

Additionally, sea surface temperatures across the tropical Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea have remained much cooler than average. A combination of stronger wind shear, drier air and increased stability of the atmosphere in the region where storms typically develop will further suppress hurricanes. Storm activity to-date and the most recent model predictions also contribute to this update.
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18-08-2018, 23:46   #29
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So it looks like Ernesto largely missed most of the country and that associated rain was fairly short lived - storm seems to have not only ended up further North, but accelerated far more quickly than previously expected, robbing it of enough time to give us a proper deluge. From what I can see on satellite, the North and Northwest got a decent blast from the rain but it's already beginning to clear away, far from the nightlong torrent which was being forecast just a few days ago by most forecasting sites.

The question is though, with Hurricane Season not even close to peaking yet, will we get any more remnants this year? Or even a repeat of last year's bizarre Ophelia scenario, with a hurricane hitting us only just barely after becoming post-tropical?

Personally I'd say we're somewhat unlikely to see too much tropical action in our neck of the woods this year. The Atlantic is a very different place than it was last year - temperatures in the East Pacific are far higher compared with 2017's La Nina conditions and this is causing rampant activity off the American West Coast, with consequent upper outflow driving up wind shear across much of the tropical Atlantic. Furthermore, sea surface temperatures are actually below average this year for the first time in a while - this apparently caused by the incredible NAO and freakishly strong Azores High throughout the early summer, causing stronger ocean currents than usual and thus carrying heat away from the tropics without giving it a chance to concentrate and pool in specific areas as it did last year.

It seems to me that you need a hyperactive season in order to have any real chance of unusual Northeast Atlantic tropical systems - 2005 and 2017, for instance, had Hurricane Vince and Hurricane Ophelia respectively. Remnants which have traversed the Atlantic after riding around the edge of the Azores High are far less likely to retain much of their strength for various reasons - and with fewer storms expected to form in the Atlantic this year, the chances of oddballs forming seems even lower than usual.

What does anyone else think?

Unfortunately I will add one prediction - we could see an incredibly stormy Winter this year with a lot of named storms. I don't know for sure if there's a correlation, but it seems to me that El Nino years, as this is shaping up to be, tend to have stronger Polar Vortex activity (and thus more intense lows with stormy, but irritatingly mild, conditions ) in Winter than neutral or La Nina years. But I'd love if someone could refute this theory
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18-08-2018, 23:55   #30
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Originally Posted by hatrickpatrick View Post
Unfortunately I will add one prediction - we could see an incredibly stormy Winter this year with a lot of named storms. I don't know for sure if there's a correlation, but it seems to me that El Nino years, as this is shaping up to be, tend to have stronger Polar Vortex activity (and thus more intense lows with stormy, but irritatingly mild, conditions ) in Winter than neutral or La Nina years. But I'd love if someone could refute this theory
El Nino years tend to be the opposite of La Nina, colder weather later in the Winter whereas La Nina is colder weather earlier in the Winter. This is just an average and there are many deviations. For example, for El Nino, there was 2009-10, 1939-40, 1887-88. Or La Nina, 2017-18.... February was the coldest of the Winter when it was forecasted to be the mildest month, primarily down to La Nina but in the end it wasn't. Another La Nina example being 1954-55, December was the mildest and wettest, February was very cold.

Thing is, ocean is not really showing its hand in El Nino state: https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/show...p?t=2057875863

Moderate El Nino, El Nino Modoki, ENSO neutral or weak La Nina are the safest bets historically for a cold and snowy Winter.

I think ENSO will be the least of our problems this Winter unlike something such as the Atlantic sea surface temperatures which are a current issue.

Last edited by sryanbruen; 19-08-2018 at 09:01.
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