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  • Registered Users Posts: 2,702 ✭✭✭tryfix


    Thought it appropriate not to let yesterday's Listed win by Jessica Harrington's Beautiful Morning go uncommented on.

    She represents hope that the very talented and ill fated George Washington might yet keep his name going in pedigrees for a while yet.

    Poor George Washington had only the one foal ( Date With Destiny) from his failed stud career. Date With Destiny won her maiden and placed in as Listed company herself.

    As a Broodmare her first foal was the filly Beautiful Morning by Galileo. As a successful black type winning daughter of Galileo, Beautiful Morning should have a healthy career as a Broodmare herself with the strong possibility that she will come up with a few decent stallion prospects.

    The 2nd foal out of Date With Destiny ( still only 7 herself) is another filly the once raced 2yo filly Janabiya by Galileo's high flying son Nathaniel.

    Hopefully the 2yo Janabiya will go on to earn black type herself and she should have a nice career as a Broodmare herself. Date With Destiny also has a yearling Colt by Lope De Vega and a Filly foal by Lope De Vega. She was covered by Iffraaj this year.


    Here's hoping that Date With Destiny's foals keep George Washington's name going for many years to come.


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,122 ✭✭✭Imhof Tank


    Mmm dunno. If Date with Destiny did breed a G1 winning colt, would a commercial stud/ insurance company take him on with the risk of hereditary fertility issues?


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,702 ✭✭✭tryfix


    Imhof Tank wrote: »
    Mmm dunno. If Date with Destiny did breed a G1 winning colt, would a commercial stud/ insurance company take him on with the risk of hereditary fertility issues?

    Interesting point, they could have him tested.


  • Registered Users Posts: 528 ✭✭✭bit of a bogey


    diomed wrote: »
    I have about 700 current sires on file. What have these 48 sires got in common that the others do not?

    Name DOB (Location)

    Milwaukee Brew (1997) (CAN)
    Balko (2001) (FR)
    Canyon Creek (1993) (FR)
    Cokoriko (2009) (FR)
    Gemix (2008) (FR)
    Kendargent (2003) (FR)
    Lauro (2003) (FR)
    Maiguri (2008) (FR)
    Network (1997) (FR)
    Nicaron (2002) (FR)
    Rio De La Plata (2005) (FR)
    Turgeon (1986) (FR)
    Apple Tree (1989) (GB)
    Beat All (1996) (GB)
    Gentlewave (2003) (GB)
    Nayef (1998) (GB)
    Lord Of England (2003) (GER)
    Carlo Bank (1996) (IRE)
    Flemensfirth (1992) (IRE)
    Gamut (1999) (IRE)
    Presenting (1992) (IRE) dead
    Prince Flori (2003) (IRE)
    Robin Des Champs (1997) (IRE)
    Tagula (1993) (IRE)
    Vinnie Roe (1998) (IRE)
    Victoire Pisa (2007) (JPN)
    Aikenite (2007) (USA)
    Astrology (2008) (USA)
    Cross Traffic (2009) (USA)
    Dominus (2008) (USA)
    Even The Score (1998) (USA)
    Fort Larned (2008) (USA)
    Hat Trick (2001) (USA)
    I Want Revenge (2006) (USA)
    Liam's Map (2011) (USA)
    Macho Uno (1998) (USA)
    Midshipman (2006) (USA)
    Mineshaft (1999) (USA)
    Mizzen Mast (1998) (USA)
    Mr Speaker (2011) (USA)
    Musketier (2002) (USA)
    Orb (2010) (USA)
    Power Broker (2010) (USA)
    Revolutionary (2010) (USA)
    Run Away And Hide (2006) (USA)
    Shakin It Up (2010) (USA)
    Street Boss (2004) (USA)
    Taste Of Paradise (1999) (USA)

    Sorry Diomed, I don't follow. There's no northern dancer in their pedigree but so what?


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,702 ✭✭✭tryfix


    tryfix wrote: »
    I do like Australia, those neat chestnut Galileos are both flashy and resolute. Even though he was speedy I'd be a bit worried about him trasmitting too much stamina to be a stallion sensation. However Galileo is a sire of sires and Australia has the career behind him to be a replacement for Galileo if he can start banging in the winners, but he's up against it. He hasn't got the blue hen type dam side that his daddy has. Ruler Of The World has a very fine stallion pedigree but is barely wanted at stud despite being a Derby winning half brother to a very decent sire in Duke Of Marmalade.

    The likes of Gleneagles has the right pedigree to really make it as a sire. There are a lot of fabulously bred Galileo stallions coming on stream. What stud will Ulysses end up at? That Decorated Knight is also another very neat superbly bred stallion prospect.

    Interesting times ahead in the search for a replacement for the great one.
    Ulysses is off to Cheveley Park at the end of the season. An excellent move for all concerned, he should get plenty of opportunities to shine there.

    The UK Studs are filling up with some very decent Galileo stallions. Banstead Manor has Frankel, Dalham Hall has New Approach, Newsells Park has Nathaniel, the National Stud has Roderic O'Connor and now Cheveley Park has Ulysses.

    Methinks Coolmore would want to start hitting the target pretty quickly with their unproven sons of Galileo, before the old man stops producing new stallion prospects.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 29 Inion An Ri


    Galileo has at least 135 foals registered and covered 178 mares this year (best book yet), with Coolmore and their associates owning at least 80% of them, so time is on their side still


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,702 ✭✭✭tryfix


    Galileo has at least 135 foals registered and covered 178 mares this year (best book yet), with Coolmore and their associates owning at least 80% of them, so time is on their side still

    True, and they've recently made a good start in the search for the next Galileo with Australia, Gleneagles, The Ghurka at Coolmore + Churchill etc coming down the tracks.

    But! You can't just pick a son of Galileo and hey presto replace the freak that is the old man.


    The end of Galileo means the probable end of the line for the Classic production machine stallions that were, Sadlers Wells, Danehill, Montjeu, Galileo, Danehill Dancer.

    Nothing has arrived at Coolmore since Galileo that could be considered to be in the super stallion league that made Coolmore.

    EDIT:

    Well that's not quite true, Fastnet Rock is probably up to the job but he hasn't exactly been used to the hilt by Coolmore.


  • Registered Users Posts: 29 Inion An Ri


    I guess the same was said of Sadler's Wells before Galileo came along, and indeed, there were no great expectations of Galileo initially. Coolmore didn't even support him themselves until his first couple of crops yielded results. But they have supported Australia quite well, and they plug him big time as 'the heir apparent'. Even Goldolphin marked the end of their boycott by buying two Australia yearlings at Keeneland.
    A significant part of Galileo's success is down to the Coolmore band of broodmares that return to him year after year, who produce multiple stakes winners, including multiple G1 winners. The might of that broodmare band will be switched to the stallion showing the potential to be the heir apparent. But it'll still be unlikely that we get the equal of Galileo again. Even Frankel, with a first book of mares in 2013 as good as Galileo's that year, can't hold a candle to him.


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,702 ✭✭✭tryfix


    I guess the same was said of Sadler's Wells before Galileo came along, and indeed, there were no great expectations of Galileo initially. Coolmore didn't even support him themselves until his first couple of crops yielded results. But they have supported Australia quite well, and they plug him big time as 'the heir apparent'. Even Goldolphin marked the end of their boycott by buying two Australia yearlings at Keeneland.
    A significant part of Galileo's success is down to the Coolmore band of broodmares that return to him year after year, who produce multiple stakes winners, including multiple G1 winners. The might of that broodmare band will be switched to the stallion showing the potential to be the heir apparent. But it'll still be unlikely that we get the equal of Galileo again. Even Frankel, with a first book of mares in 2013 as good as Galileo's that year, can't hold a candle to him.

    Sadlers Wells was never alone as a top level stallion at Coolmore, Galileo on the other hand is the only super stallion at Coolmore since Montjeu and Danehill Dancer finished. ( true Fastnet Rock is top drawer but they even gave up on him for Ireland at one stage despite his supersire record in Australia).

    Sadlers Wells was the Frankel ( stallion) of his day in that he was expected to be a Champion Sire from day one where his starting fee was £100,000.

    At stud he had Caerleon standing alongside him, and he had Danehill, Montjeu, Galileo and Danehill Dancer standing alongside him for many years.

    If he had dropped dead there was another few Champion Class Sires ready to fill his boots.

    If Galileo died tomorrow, Coolmore have no replacement ready. It'd take years for them to establish a new super-stallion..



    STALLION £ TOTAL PRIZE
    Galileo £10,249,746
    Dubawi £2,709,333
    Dark Angel £2,626,940
    Acclamation £1,973,053
    Kodiac £1,965,167
    Nathaniel £1,804,891
    Sea The Stars £1,795,580
    Frankel £1,759,067
    Iffraaj £1,603,556
    Invincible Spirit £1,552,168


    Here is the up to date top ten stallion list for GB and Irish racing. No Coolmore except Galileo on the list.


    Galileo's dominance masks the depletion of proven Champion Class Sires now standing at Coolmore Ireland.

    .
    All those years of Galileo dominance as a sire has produced no proven top class Galileo-line stallion at Coolmore.

    In the meanwhile, Coolmore's competition have stood Galileo's best stallion sons.

    Teofilo would likely be a Champion Stallion if he had access to Coolmore's Broodmare Band, New Approach would be knocking on the door. Frankel would be siring Classic winners at Coolmore.

    Even slow and steady Nathaniel would be sitting there as a quality owner-breeder stallion.


    The few Galileos with runners that Coolmore stood up until now have been poor and unsupported by the Coolmore Broodmare Band

    Rip Van Winkle never seen a sniff of top Totty, Cape Blanco was awful, Soldier Of Fortune was treated as a NH sire in waiting and behaved as such. Ruler Of The World is barely wanted at Coolmore.

    The one constant in the really successful Galileo stallions that stood outside Coolmore was preciousness at 2yo. Dewhurst winners Teofilo and New Approach were joined by another Dewhurst winner in Frankel as the most successful Galileo stallions.

    Meanwhile Gp 1 winning 2yo and Dewhurst runner up ( to Frankel) and Irish 2,000 Guineas winner Roderic O'Connor wasn't deemed good enough for Coolmore and was packed off to obscurity at some semi-detached stud where he could fight for scraps at €9,000.

    Roderic succeeds relatively well and instead of getting promoted within the Coolmore structure he instead gets sold to the UK national stud.

    All the War Fronts will be grand commercial prospects but they won't replace the Derby/Oaks winning top stallions like Galileo, Danehill, Montjeu etc who dominated the Champion sire tables for the last few decades.


    Hopefully Australia will make it as a stallion because he should be an 8-12f stallion who can supply group winning 2yos.I'm not too wild about his damside but there is class there.

    The likes of Gleneagles and Churchill to a lesser extent have the blue-hen type damsides to be top drawer. Gleneagles could have it all as a sire, he doesn't lack stamina in his pedigree as much as Churchill does.

    Tick tock, the old man needs to stay alive for another few years to allow his replacements time and space to prove themselves.


  • Registered Users Posts: 29 Inion An Ri


    Danehill died in 2003 and for a couple of years, Sadler's Wells was on his own before Montjeu and Danehill Dancer appeared from left field in 2005, so they have been here before. You can't underestimate the power of their broodmare band and their breeding knowledge and contacts. They can turn a good sire into a very good sire, and a very good sire into a top sire. Also, they don't support outside sires to any great extent, so they don't help the opposition.

    Regarding other Galileo sons, New Approach has been a great disappointment after flattering to deceive with his first crop. Teofilo produces some good horses, but no very good ones to date, Trading Leather is his highest rated! Frankel has started at the top and can only work his way down.

    Coolmore have four live candidates from the Sadler's Wells line to replace Galileo right now and there are at least 3 more large crops of 2yos. If Galileo were to emulate his sire (as he has done in everything to date), who retired at the age of 27, we would have his 2yos up until 2028!

    Sadler's Wells line aside, one under the radar is Zoffany, he had the third best book of mares last year, behind only Galileo and Dubawi, and better than Frankel. He has been getting a lot of Galileo mares. Coolmore have also supported No Nay Never with a number of good mares for his first few seasons, and he was an inferior racehorse to Caravaggio, as indeed was Scat Daddy himself, which suggests that they may indeed throw the full weight of their Galileo mares behind Caravaggio. So they have a number of irons in the fire, though they will need two of them to come through and prove themselves in the next two or three years, one as a replacement for Galileo and another as an outcross for his daughters.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 2,702 ✭✭✭tryfix


    Danehill died in 2003 and for a couple of years, Sadler's Wells was on his own before Montjeu and Danehill Dancer appeared from left field in 2005, so they have been here before. You can't underestimate the power of their broodmare band and their breeding knowledge and contacts. They can turn a good sire into a very good sire, and a very good sire into a top sire. Also, they don't support outside sires to any great extent, so they don't help the opposition.

    Regarding other Galileo sons, New Approach has been a great disappointment after flattering to deceive with his first crop. Teofilo produces some good horses, but no very good ones to date, Trading Leather is his highest rated! Frankel has started at the top and can only work his way down.

    Coolmore have four live candidates from the Sadler's Wells line to replace Galileo right now and there are at least 3 more large crops of 2yos. If Galileo were to emulate his sire (as he has done in everything to date), who retired at the age of 27, we would have his 2yos up until 2028!

    Sadler's Wells line aside, one under the radar is Zoffany, he had the third best book of mares last year, behind only Galileo and Dubawi, and better than Frankel. He has been getting a lot of Galileo mares. Coolmore have also supported No Nay Never with a number of good mares for his first few seasons, and he was an inferior racehorse to Caravaggio, as indeed was Scat Daddy himself, which suggests that they may indeed throw the full weight of their Galileo mares behind Caravaggio. So they have a number of irons in the fire, though they will need two of them to come through and prove themselves in the next two or three years, one as a replacement for Galileo and another as an outcross for his daughters.


    It's hard to believe that Danehill is dead 14 years ( time flies). I'm trying to remember who was at Coolmore back then.

    In 2003 they bought Ahanoora who unfortunately died in the same year. They also had Danehill Dancer who was an established 10yo stallion at the time. At that time the other European Studs were very far behind Coolmore, now the competition between other Studs and Coolmore is much more challenging.

    They also had many potential giants at stud there in 2003 with Rock Of Gibraltar who never lived up to what could have been expected standing alongside Montjeu and Galileo and High Chaparral and Hawkwing on the track as 3yo's in 2003. If I recall correctly they also had a clatter of GP1 winning Danehill Sprinters coming on line during that period.

    Zoffany could become anything, however everytime I see Deauville run I'm reminded of his 2yo conqueror, John Gosden's very handsome colt Foundation who failed to train on. Indeed the best Zoffany's have failed to step up to Gp 1 winning company except for in one egg and spoon GP1 in Italy. He has enough about him to produce GP1 winners from top mares, just don't think that he will ever get to supersire status.

    For sure Coolmore now have a blue-hen production line going with Galileo producing multiple GP winners from the same mares time and time again. It's quite amazing from a breeding perspective but it all hinges on Galileo himself. It won't be so easy to find a middle distance champion class outcross fit to service those mares.

    Caravaggio is a perfect outcross for Galileo, but not for producing Derby winners.


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,702 ✭✭✭tryfix


    What sire line could they use to produce the same kind of horses as Galileo is firing out.

    The answer is kinda obvious, the Galileo line but then what to do with all the Galileo line Broodmares they are creating.

    Funnily enough they are tapping into the Frankel line very successfully at the moment, it looks like Aidan has figured how to train the Frankel's to produce stallion prospects.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 4,744 ✭✭✭diomed


    For the last few weeks I was writing programs analysing the horses in 12 generation pedigrees (8190 ancestors).
    The idea was to add up certain factors in each pedigree.
    My test data was 456 "horses" that were "one mare test-mated with 456 sires" now at stud in IRE, GB, FR, GER.

    As people were discussing Galileo on the thread I thought I would add him to the end of my load file and run the programs again for that one horse.
    Now I had 456 test-matings and one actual horse, Galileo.

    I filtered the 457 results for two factors
    i.e. pick the horses that exceeded an arbitrary high number of factor A and also exceeded an arbitrary high number of factor B.

    The result was one horse: Galileo

    My next move will be to get rid of the test-matings and load in thousands of horses where I know the Group race record (won Gr1, won Gr2, won Gr3) of each horse or a rating for the horse.
    It will be interesting to see if other good horses pass the test / get over the bar.


  • Registered Users Posts: 29 Inion An Ri


    It would be ironic if Aidan was to get Frankel that elusive European G1 winner. But I'm not sure it will be one of this year's crop of 2yos. Rostropovich is proving disappointing and Nelson was flattered by his last win, would expect the second and third to surpass him. There are a couple of others who may come on for their first run. Coolmore have 15 nominations to Frankel as part of the deal they had with Juddmonte for the use of each other's stallions. They have used most of those nominations to date to sell young mares in foal (some of them to SH time), or to sell the resulting yearlings. Coolmore have bred 4 of Frankel's stakes winners, including Eminent. Nelson is the only home bred they've retained to race. All their yearlings have been entered in the sales this year, it will be interesting to see if they buy any.


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,702 ✭✭✭tryfix


    It would be ironic if Aidan was to get Frankel that elusive European G1 winner. But I'm not sure it will be one of this year's crop of 2yos. Rostropovich is proving disappointing and Nelson was flattered by his last win, would expect the second and third to surpass him. There are a couple of others who may come on for their first run. Coolmore have 15 nominations to Frankel as part of the deal they had with Juddmonte for the use of each other's stallions. They have used most of those nominations to date to sell young mares in foal (some of them to SH time), or to sell the resulting yearlings. Coolmore have bred 4 of Frankel's stakes winners, including Eminent. Nelson is the only home bred they've retained to race. All their yearlings have been entered in the sales this year, it will be interesting to see if they buy any.

    I was quite impressed by Nelson the last day, he'll be a hard horse to outstay and we'll see tomorrow how good the form is. I'd have him down for a serious stayer who is made for a race like the 10f 2yo GP1 in France that O'Brien targets at the end of the season. He should be in the O'Brien's Derby thoughts next year with the Doncaster St Leger being an ideal target for him on pedigree.

    His Dosage Index is 0.54 which is cup horse territory and he's a half/3/4 brother to US Army Ranger, Nevin, Words and Stubbs. His dam is a great producer.

    They should keep sending him mares because they have found the key to getting good results out of him and he's a 12f stallion capable of getting the Derby winners that Coolmore's reputation is dependent on.


    With Rostropovich they're already sorted with him, he's won his group race, is a half brother to a proven stallion and is by a currently desirable stallion source. He's already a small time stallion waiting to finish his career so that he go and meet the ladies.


  • Registered Users Posts: 29 Inion An Ri


    They've only sent half a dozen average mares to Frankel this year, though they will possibly use up the rest of their nominations with coverings to SH time.


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,702 ✭✭✭tryfix


    BUSIEST NEW SIRES IN BRITAIN AND IRELAND in 2017

    Mehmas
    Sire Acclamation
    Stud Tally-Ho
    Mares covered 187
    Black-type winners covered 10

    Vadamos
    Sire Monsun
    Stud Tally-Ho
    Mares covered 184
    Black-type winners covered 18

    The Gurkha
    Sire Galileo
    Stud Coolmore
    Mares covered 175
    Black-type winners covered 21

    Pride Of Dubai
    Sire Street Cry
    Stud Coolmore
    Mares covered 158
    Black-type winners covered 8

    Territories
    Sire Invincible Spirit
    Stud Dalham Hall
    Mares covered 148
    Black-type winners covered 16

    Estidhkaar
    Sire Dark Angel
    Stud Tara
    Mares covered 143
    Black-type winners covered 3

    Twilight Son
    Sire Kyllachy
    Stud Cheveley Park
    Mares covered 142
    Black-type winners covered 8

    Affinisea
    Sire Sea The Stars
    Stud Whytemount
    Mares covered 128
    Black-type winners covered 2

    Adaay
    Sire Kodiac
    Stud Whitsbury Manor
    Mares covered 127
    Black-type winners covered 3

    Belardo
    Sire Lope De Vega
    Stud Kildangan
    Mares covered 122
    Black-type winners covered 7

    Prince Of Lir
    Sire Kodiac
    Stud Ballyhane
    Mares covered 122
    Black-type winners covered 4

    Buratino
    Sire Exceed And Excel
    Stud Kildangan
    Mares covered 121
    Black-type winners covered 3

    Awtaad
    Sire Cape Cross
    Stud Derrinstown
    Mares covered 120
    Black-type winners covered 16

    New Bay
    Sire Dubawi
    Stud Ballylinch
    Mares covered 118
    Black-type winners covered 15

    Markaz
    Sire Dark Angel
    Stud Derrinstown
    Mares covered 108
    Black-type winners covered 4

    Kodi Bear
    Sire Kodiac
    Stud Rathbarry
    Mares covered 105
    Black-type winners covered 2

    Harzand
    Sire Sea The Stars
    Stud Gilltown
    Mares covered 96
    Black-type winners covered 11

    Bobby's Kitten
    Sire Kitten's Joy
    Stud Lanwades
    Mares covered 95
    Black-type winners covered 11

    Ol Man River
    Sire Montjeu
    Stud Arctic Tack
    Mares covered 93
    Black-type winners covered 0

    Fascinating Rock
    Sire Fastnet Rock
    Stud Ballylinch
    Mares covered 91
    Black-type winners covered 11

    The Last Lion
    Sire Choisir
    Stud Kildangan
    Mares covered 90
    Black-type winners covered 5

    Charming Thought
    Sire Oasis Dream
    Stud Dalham Hall
    Mares covered 83
    Black-type winners covered 5

    Coulsty
    Sire Kodiac
    Stud Rathasker
    Mares covered 66
    Black-type winners covered 2

    Ajaya
    Sire Invincible Spirit
    Stud Rathbarry
    Mares covered 59
    Black-type winners covered 0

    Clovis Du Berlais
    Sire King's Theatre
    Stud Yorton Farm
    Mares covered 59
    Black-type winners covered 1

    Pearl Secret
    Sire Compton Place
    Stud Bucklands
    Mares covered 58
    Black-type winners covered 0

    Cannock Chase
    Sire Lemon Drop Kid
    Stud Nunstainton
    Mares covered 55
    Black-type winners covered 2

    Proconsul
    Sire Galileo
    Stud Mickley
    Mares covered 42
    Black-type winners covered 1

    Life Force
    Sire Invincible Spirit
    Stud Moortown
    Mares covered 28
    Black-type winners covered 0

    Eagle Top
    Sire Pivotal
    Stud Hedgehome
    Mares covered 27
    Black-type winners covered 0

    Strath Burn
    Sire Equiano
    Stud Bridge
    Mares covered 23
    Black-type winners covered 2

    Marcel
    Sire Lawman
    Stud National
    Mares covered 23
    Black-type winners covered 4

    https://www.racingpost.com/bloodstock/bloodstock-world/mehmas-the-busiest-new-boy-in-britain-and-ireland-with-187-mares/301878

    Some depressing reading in that link with the production of horses ready to race at 2 seemingly being a huge factor in coverings.

    4 Sons of Kodiac begin stud duties and covered 400 mares between them while the retired at 2 Mehmas by Dark Angel has a book of 187.


    The Ghurka seems to have had some choice mares sent his way ..


  • Registered Users Posts: 16,453 ✭✭✭✭Francie Barrett


    Saxon Warrior goes again today at Naas and has a very interesting pedigree being out of Deep Impact who needs no introduction, with Moyglare Stakes winner Maybe on the dam side and Galileo on the damsire side. If it wins today in the manner it did on debut then it could be a serious Derby contender. Full sister Pavlenko has had a few runs and without really pulling up trees so my enthusiasm is a little tempered.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 620 ✭✭✭WickIow Brave


    Saxon Warrior goes again today at Naas and has a very interesting pedigree being out of Deep Impact who needs no introduction, with Moyglare Stakes winner Maybe on the dam side and Galileo on the damsire side. If it wins today in the manner it did on debut then it could be a serious Derby contender. Full sister Pavlenko has had a few runs and without really pulling up trees so my enthusiasm is a little tempered.

    Lovely pedigree, hope he turns out to be really good but he's short enough now. Reckon young O'Brien might chin Moore again.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 620 ✭✭✭WickIow Brave


    Talking of sire sons of Galileo actually, New Approach had a nice filly hack up at Newmarket yesterday 'Magic Lily' out of Oaks winner Dancing Rain. Big fan of New Approach as a sire, like that Masar of his aswell. New Approach for £30,000 or Dubawi for £250,000? Hmm


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 4,744 ✭✭✭diomed


    Those 3,196 coverings in the Racing Post had 195 black type winning mares (6.1%), and 3,001 mares who did not win black type.
    What would be interesting is how many of the 3,196 mare have already produced a black type winner (which is different from the mare herself being a black type winner).
    I would like to know how many of those 3,196 matings are a repeat of a mating that has already produced a black type winner.


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,702 ✭✭✭tryfix


    Saxon Warrior goes again today at Naas and has a very interesting pedigree being out of Deep Impact who needs no introduction, with Moyglare Stakes winner Maybe on the dam side and Galileo on the damsire side. If it wins today in the manner it did on debut then it could be a serious Derby contender. Full sister Pavlenko has had a few runs and without really pulling up trees so my enthusiasm is a little tempered.

    It's a very competitive little race, I'm a bit concerned about the Breeding with Saxon Warrior.

    Those Deep Impacts have been ready first time up like September was, but I'm beginning to think that they won't improve at the same rate as the Galileos.

    Having said that he showed a remarkable ability to quicken the last day so hopefully he'll turn out to be the real deal and he'll be up for it today because a Gp2 win for him makes him an instant stallion as soon as he finishes his career.


  • Registered Users Posts: 16,453 ✭✭✭✭Francie Barrett


    tryfix wrote: »
    It's a very competitive little race, I'm a bit concerned about the Breeding with Saxon Warrior.

    Those Deep Impacts have been ready first time up like September was, but I'm beginning to think that they won't improve at the same rate as the Galileos.

    Having said that he showed a remarkable ability to quicken the last day so hopefully he'll turn out to be the real deal and he'll be up for it today because a Gp2 win for him makes him an instant stallion as soon as he finishes his career.
    Can't help but be impressed with that performance. Maybe a little green when pressed but it quickened nicely and looked like it was going away from the field at the close. Surely no doubt about it stepping up to a Derby trip.


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,702 ✭✭✭tryfix


    Can't help but be impressed with that performance. Maybe a little green when pressed but it quickened nicely and looked like it was going away from the field at the close. Surely no doubt about it stepping up to a Derby trip.

    No doubt at all, he's a DI of 0.87 and his full sister seems to have no problem racing from a mile up to 1m 4f. He's obviously got loads of stamina when O'Brien ( lol) was pointing out that he wasn't just a middle distance horse for next year.

    He's definitely got a serious motor there and hadn't a hard race today. O'Brien has an embarrassment of riches already for next year's middle-distance races, with plenty more to come.


    I've been very disappointed with the Camelots, they look and move really well through races without finding much at the business end. Hopefully good summer ground as 3yos and up will see big improvements next year, otherwise it's off to dual purpose duties for Camelot.


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,702 ✭✭✭tryfix


    Can't help but be impressed with that performance. Maybe a little green when pressed but it quickened nicely and looked like it was going away from the field at the close. Surely no doubt about it stepping up to a Derby trip.

    Through the beaten horses he comes out as much the same horse as the Frankel colt Nelson, so might not be the horse to put the house on for the Derby.


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,122 ✭✭✭Imhof Tank


    Tryfix - serious question - what do you say to those, eg Kevin Blake, who ridicule the whole concept of dosage index and claim it has been completely discredited?


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,702 ✭✭✭tryfix


    Imhof Tank wrote: »
    Tryfix - serious question - what do you say to those, eg Kevin Blake, who ridicule the whole concept of dosage index and claim it has been completely discredited?
    I'd say they are half right, it's a very flawed system, it's only a good guide rather than an accurate assessment of a horse's likely staying power.

    It works well where the horses being assessed are from a European background because European horses are subject to careers where their ability to stay 12f+ is usually tested as there are loads of races at 12f +. Also DI is most relevant when a horse is running in a top class race, in egg and spoon race handicaps it's not very important at all.

    Top US horses rarely get sent over a trip that would give a true indication of their actual staying power, so US sires Dosage stats are based around a very flawed test regime of their actual ability to transmit stamina.

    The Dosage Index worked to show that Frankel would be a sire of mostly middle-distance horses despite his own dam being a sprinter and his showing of tremendous speed over a mile. His dam was in fact a bit of freak who was defying her own dam's sire Rainbow Quest's staying influence. The breeding will nearly always break out.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 620 ✭✭✭WickIow Brave


    Saxon Warrior was APOB's 17th Beresford winner. None of the previous 16 winners won or even placed in the Derby. Mad stat.


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,484 ✭✭✭Peintre Celebre


    Lads does anyone know how many mares Rajj has covered? And why he seems to have only entered stud in 2013? Can only find 7 runners from him. Has two well above average horses from very few chances


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  • Registered Users Posts: 2,702 ✭✭✭tryfix


    Lads does anyone know how many mares Rajj has covered? And why he seems to have only entered stud in 2013? Can only find 7 runners from him. Has two well above average horses from very few chances
    It's very complicated to know his past because he hadn't got a past as such. He never raced, was once entered in a race in 2007 but was a non-runner and one site said he entered stud in 2010.He only covered 6 mares in 2016 according to another site.

    He's one of those private sires that got the job because he's so well bred being by Danehill from a Sadlers Wells mare from a classy female side.

    Likely that he was servicing nothing but a handful of their own or clients mares in the last few years. Some of these barely registering stallions do alright, I'd consider The Carbon Unit to be a solid little sire.


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