Covid-19; Impact on the aviation industry

bombs away · 12-04-2021 2:54pm

awec wrote: »

I didn't say it was.

I said the government will follow NPHET because the public wants them to follow NPHET. I think the fallout from Christmas shocked people, there is no desire right now for the government to move away from their advice. The expectation is that we'll slowly open up again with a view to being sort of normal-ish by September-ish. If this doesn't happen, frustration will grow, but right now it seems like the public is on for staying the course laid out by the health officials.

And as I already said, the main objective of the public now is getting domestic leisure open and social visiting allowed. People want to visit their mates, they want to go to the pub, they want to go out for meals. I think most have written off summer 2021 as being a year for foreign holidays, to be totally honest.

It is understandably very frustrating for those who rely on tourism and travel for their income, but that is the reality. Hopefully there is a surge in travel late 2021 that continues into 2022.

Yes you did. I said that public opinion doesn't matter, you said all the decisions the government are making are driven by it. Nice fantasy there but they aren't and that's the reality. Public opinion has absolutely no factor on the decisions that the government are making at the moment. They did in December, they don't now. NPHET will advise government on what restrictions need to be eased or not, what quarantine's need to be enforced and what rules to relax based on the scientific evidence and decisions will be made from that.

The main objective of the public as you call it doesn't matter. The main objective of NPHET and the government is to keep case numbers down and stop VAC's from entering the country which is completely absurd as they are already here but there you go.

I might add that a large proportion of the public have no interest in what NPHET says or recommends or whether the government follows them or not. Their opinion doesn't matter either funnily enough.

Jack1985 · 12-04-2021 2:58pm

I think the analysis done of those busting their 5K was enough to tell the Gov what people care less about what NPHET preach. Roll on the days of Brits on beaches post vaccination to really get the popcorn going.

awec · 12-04-2021 2:59pm

bombs away wrote: »

Yes you did. I said that public opinion doesn't matter, you said all the decisions the government are making are driven by it. Nice fantasy there but they aren't and that's the reality. Public opinion has absolutely no factor on the decisions that the government are making at the moment. They did in December, they don't now. NPHET will advise government on what restrictions need to be eased or not, what quarantine's need to be enforced and what rules to relax based on the scientific evidence and decisions will be made from that.

The main objective of the public as you call it doesn't matter. The main objective of NPHET and the government is to keep case numbers down and stop VAC's from entering the country which is completely absurd as they are already here but there you go.

I might add that a large proportion of the public have no interest in what NPHET says or recommends or whether the government follows them or not. Their opinion doesn't matter either funnily enough.

I'm sorry, but I think you are still misunderstanding.

I said that right now the government is following NPHET. This is what the public wants the government to do.

If the public wanted them to go against NPHET, then the government might ignore the public. But right now, the government is in a position where it is both pleasing NPHET and pleasing the public (exceptions aside), and that is something that has rarely been the case.

The insinuation all along here has been that the government are doing things that nobody wants. I do not believe this to be the reality, it is wishful thinking. The MHQ for example, most people don't really care if quarantine is imposed because it'll never affect most people as they have no intention of travelling.

awec · 12-04-2021 3:09pm

Jack1985 wrote: »

I think the analysis done of those busting their 5K was enough to tell the Gov what people care less about what NPHET preach. Roll on the days of Brits on beaches post vaccination to really get the popcorn going.

Don't think this would have the impact you want it to have. Pubs etc opening, social visiting allowances etc will be much bigger (England pubs open today, give it a while).

If you asked the public if they wanted foreign travel or pubs, restaurants and domestic travel for the summer the result would, IMO, be absolutely overwhelming.

bombs away · 12-04-2021 3:23pm

awec wrote: »

Don't think this would have the impact you want it to have. Pubs etc opening, social visiting allowances etc will be much bigger (England pubs open today, give it a while).

If you asked the public if they wanted foreign travel or pubs, restaurants and domestic travel for the summer the result would, IMO, be absolutely overwhelming.

Yes but you can also be sure that won't last long when other countries open up to foreign travel before we do. Public opinion will change pretty quickly I'd imagine when that happens.

Jack1985 · 12-04-2021 3:29pm

awec wrote: »

Don't think this would have the impact you want it to have.

I live in a border county I'm not sure if you do, It'll have an impact alright.

MrMusician18 · 12-04-2021 4:13pm

bombs away wrote: »

Yes but you can also be sure that won't last long when other countries open up to foreign travel before we do. Public opinion will change pretty quickly I'd imagine when that happens.

There is no real effective barometer of public opinion though. Yes that's surveys and polls but they are generally telephone/online these days and not particularly reliable. There will only be a push for change when the media sense the tide turning as they effectively lead opinion and I do not see media getting on board for a push for international travel this side of summer - especially if the science isn't fully behind it. With other external factors in the mix now, they might never fully get on board in the push to reopen and may only be luke warm at the idea of a return to 2019 normality.

Interesting times ahead.

bombs away · 12-04-2021 4:56pm

MrMusician18 wrote: »

There is no real effective barometer of public opinion though. Yes that's surveys and polls but they are generally telephone/online these days and not particularly reliable. There will only be a push for change when the media sense the tide turning as they effectively lead opinion and I do not see media getting on board for a push for international travel this side of summer - especially if the science isn't fully behind it. With other external factors in the mix now, they might never fully get on board in the push to reopen and may only be luke warm at the idea of a return to 2019 normality.

Interesting times ahead.

The media do nothing of the sort, they pander to public opinion. Social media might be different but then that's essentially non professional with an open agenda depending on the poster. Certain news forums may have an agenda but they are definitely in the minority. And in Ireland I don't know of any with those sort of views. They certainly don't lead it. And that's as a former journalist myself. Jesus, some of the ideas on this forum are just mind boggling.

awec · 12-04-2021 5:05pm

bombs away wrote: »

The media do nothing of the sort, they pander to public opinion. Social media might be different but then that's essentially non professional with an open agenda depending on the poster. Certain news forums may have an agenda but they are definitely in the minority. And in Ireland I don't know of any with those sort of views. They certainly don't lead it. And that's as a former journalist myself. Jesus, some of the ideas on this forum are just mind boggling.

I must admit I am finding it hard to follow what your position is on this as it seems entirely contradictory from one post to the next.

On one hand you are saying that there's nothing to suggest public opinion is in line with NPHET. On the other hand, you are saying the media are not pushing for relaxation of restrictions (there are pretty much no media pushing for foreign travel to be opened up) because they are pandering to the public. These two things are completely at odds with one another.

bombs away · 12-04-2021 5:17pm

awec wrote: »

I must admit I am finding it hard to follow what your position is on this as it seems entirely contradictory from one post to the next.

On one hand you are saying that there's nothing to suggest public opinion is in line with NPHET. On the other hand, you are saying the media are not pushing for relaxation of restrictions (there are pretty much no media pushing for foreign travel to be opened up) because they are pandering to the public. These two things are completely at odds with one another.

Now it's seems you're the one that's confused. I was talking about the government listening to public opinion at the moment, where did I say anything about the media? They're not the same thing last time I checked.

The media have never lead public opinion unless you watch Fox as I'm beginning to suspect some of you do, just as at the moment the public aren't leading government decisions. What part of that are you not following? And when the heck did I say the media were or were not pushing for relaxation of restrictions?

Media does not equal government, not sure how you could be confused by that but I'm constantly surprised.

MrMusician18 · 12-04-2021 5:19pm

bombs away wrote: »

The media do nothing of the sort, they pander to public opinion. Social media might be different but then that's essentially non professional with an open agenda depending on the poster. Certain news forums may have an agenda but they are definitely in the minority. And in Ireland I don't know of any with those sort of views. They certainly don't lead it. And that's as a former journalist myself. Jesus, some of the ideas on this forum are just mind boggling.

Of course media steers peoples opinion - sure for example the tag line /intro/slogan for Morning Ireland was "Setting today's agenda". Media picks a point of view and amplifies it. It's always been thus.

A former journalist that's never heard of an editorial seemingly.

Jack1985 · 12-04-2021 5:23pm

https://twitter.com/PoliticsForAlI/status/1381253017169768451

There's a reason for this. There is no variant that has demonstrated high consequence as referred to by the CDC, they classify under the following;

VOI - Variant of Interest
VOC - Variant of Concern
VOHQ - Variant of High Consequence

There is currently no vaccine escape' viral lineage in circulation that can be proven, yet we will spend the Summer obsessed by VOCs to the detriment of any sort of Travel recovery and at the expense of other high GDP contributing industries. It is quite an achievement that NPHET can fixate on issues, usually encouraged to do so by activists.

But as I said previously, get the popcorn ready.

bombs away · 12-04-2021 5:35pm

MrMusician18 wrote: »

Of course media steers peoples opinion - sure for example the tag line /intro/slogan for Morning Ireland was "Setting today's agenda". Media picks a point of view and amplifies it. It's always been thus.

A former journalist that's never heard of an editorial seemingly.

Media takes a viewpoint based on the news of the day, it doesn't manipulate the public's opinion certainly not on purpose unless it's some of those rags people are reading nowadays, are you saying that Morning Ireland dictates what the public should express or think based on their tag line? Now that is news to me lol. Most editorials worth reading are thus, they're not designed to grab attention with their catchy intro's. They're just designed to report the facts. Maybe you read a lot of the Mirror by the sounds of it.

No requirement to be a jerk either. I'm expressing a viewpoint as are you but I've found over the years that viewpoints and opinions although varied are mostly full of crap. Goes for yours and mine.

bombs away · 12-04-2021 5:49pm

awec wrote: »

Of course they are not the same thing. This is genuinely getting silly now.

You started this discussion by asserting that the government doesn't care what the public thinks. This, IMO, is an incredibly naive viewpoint. If you believe that the public being opposed to these restrictions would have no impact on government policy or direction regarding covid then you are being naive.

Right now the government is enjoying a time when both NPHET and the public are pretty closely aligned on restrictions that are required. This, IMO, is obvious. They can easily make decisions that keep almost everyone happy and won't suffer too much fallout from either a health perspective or politically.

Therefore, the insinuation that the heavy restrictions on foreign travel are not what people want, or that there's going to be a sudden demand for sun holidays abroad are wide of the mark. I believe that most people have already written off summer 2021 for foreign holidaymaking. The fact that they have written off summer 2021 is of course relevant to the government as it will reduce pressure to open the gates sooner.

I would not be surprised to see travel pick up significantly post-September. Once vaccinations roll out widely then there will be immense pressure to ease restrictions.

If you took the time to read my posts which you obviously haven't, I said the government are not pandering to public opinion at present. Present tense. They were back in December. They are not now. They are now making their decisions based on NPHET viewpoints. Who are not the public. Just because they are both aligned, doesn't mean they are listening to both. They made the mistake of listening to the public before Christmas and look what happened. They now are not concerned by their viewpoint. I'm not saying that will change in the future, I'm just saying that is the case at present. Is it now clear to you?

Jesus I give up.

MrMusician18 · 12-04-2021 5:56pm

bombs away wrote: »

Media takes a viewpoint based on the news of the day, it doesn't manipulate the public's opinion certainly not on purpose unless it's some of those rags people are reading nowadays, are you saying that Morning Ireland dictates what the public should express or think based on their tag line? Now that is news to me lol. Most editorials worth reading are thus, they're not designed to grab attention with their catchy intro's. They're just designed to report the facts. Maybe you read a lot of the Mirror by the sounds of it.

No requirement to be a jerk either. I'm expressing a viewpoint as are you but I've found over the years that viewpoints and opinions although varied are mostly full of crap. Goes for yours and mine.

We are getting away from aviation so I will close out my argument with this and leave it at that. Editorials are designed to put forward the media outlets opinion or point of view. In fact, the Irish Times, the so called "paper of record" is celebrating today a particular 1951 editorial where it was of the opinion that the RCC was in effective control of the country. It certainly wasn't a popular opinion to hold at that time. Media absolutely steers opinion, it's why the wealthy have long sought to own loss making media outlets.

If the Irish media started running a stream of stories about how the curtailment of international travel was grossly unfair, you would certainly see a shift in the public attitudes. In fact I'd guarantee it and it would then become a priority for government to relax.

Nijmegen · 13-04-2021 9:50am

A sorbet for the "government are not pandering to public opinion":

Trust in the National Public Health Emergency Team (Nphet) was at 87%, down four points on the previous year.

Meanwhile back in AV land, the boss of Virgin Atlantic, Shai Weiss, has given an interview to the FT. They're estimating business travel down 20% over the next two years vs pre-pandemic - which is actually a lot less of a drop than I've seen elsewhere, though I imagine their exposure is nowhere near a BA or Lufthansa. He's also joined the "it'll probably never fully recover" line of thinking around corporate travel.

The piece also cites YouGov polling in the UK where 4/10 business travelers say they'll do less of it post pandemic. To be honest, I think those sorts of numbers are on the positive side to where some forecasts are, but it's obviously all still nothing but pie in the sky speculation for now.

https://www.ft.com/content/b8766e60-1a20-41ee-871d-6b97dbee71e8

bombs away · 13-04-2021 10:12am

Nijmegen wrote: »

A sorbet for the "government are not pandering to public opinion":
https://www.ft.com/content/b8766e60-1a20-41ee-871d-6b97dbee71e8

What does that prove? How does that make the point that the government have any interest in what we think at the moment? Have you even read it? We lost trust in politicians and NPHET, wow that's a shocker. You believe they're going to change their strategy based on that? You're having a laugh.

Nijmegen · 13-04-2021 10:28am

bombs away wrote: »

What does that prove? How does that make the point that the government have any interest in what we think at the moment? Have you even read it? We lost trust in politicians and NPHET, wow that's a shocker. You believe they're going to change their strategy based on that? You're having a laugh.

The survey shows that 87% of the public trust NPHET, down 4% on the prior year. That's hardly "lost trust", it's an overwhelming show of trust in the advice they issue, with only a slight decline during a period of significant hardship that emanated from NPHET advice on lockdowns. I actually think the public both trusts what NPHET is saying while at the same time relaxing their approach to some restrictions, as we see in other data, out of exhaustion.

I think the faith of some that if only the public was shown a few more news items on this or that, they'd change their mind, is misplaced. The Irish people trust NPHET even if they're tired of lockdowns and I doubt you'd see major support for, for example, allowing in a load of tourists from abroad over the summer while we're still going through the gears on vaccination.

From an aviation and tourism point of view, 2021 is a relative (to pre pandemic) write off the same as 2020 was. Maybe things are going again a bit by autumn or winter, but that's not a highly profitable time in the life of the industry. The focus now should be on the approaches required to keep things going (state supports, restructuring, domestic demand, etc) rather than shouting into the echo chamber about how unfair it all is and how it's a grand conspiracy by a government out of touch. I just don't think the data supports that and if any decision makers were spending their energy on that line of thinking, it's time they're not spending trying to preserve their business.

bombs away · 13-04-2021 10:59am

Nijmegen wrote: »

The survey shows that 87% of the public trust NPHET, down 4% on the prior year. That's hardly "lost trust", it's an overwhelming show of trust in the advice they issue, with only a slight decline during a period of significant hardship that emanated from NPHET advice on lockdowns. I actually think the public both trusts what NPHET is saying while at the same time relaxing their approach to some restrictions, as we see in other data, out of exhaustion.

I think the faith of some that if only the public was shown a few more news items on this or that, they'd change their mind, is misplaced. The Irish people trust NPHET even if they're tired of lockdowns and I doubt you'd see major support for, for example, allowing in a load of tourists from abroad over the summer while we're still going through the gears on vaccination.

From an aviation and tourism point of view, 2021 is a relative (to pre pandemic) write off the same as 2020 was. Maybe things are going again a bit by autumn or winter, but that's not a highly profitable time in the life of the industry. The focus now should be on the approaches required to keep things going (state supports, restructuring, domestic demand, etc) rather than shouting into the echo chamber about how unfair it all is and how it's a grand conspiracy by a government out of touch. I just don't think the data supports that and if any decision makers were spending their energy on that line of thinking, it's time they're not spending trying to preserve their business.

Still have no idea how that proves that the government care what we think at the moment?

This sums up these idiotic restrictions perfectly, own goal by the country as far as I’m concerned.

Jack1985 · 14-04-2021 12:31am

EU embassies want answers on how the MHQ system operates and why their respective countries were placed on it.

Christ the Gov don't even know how it works.

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/state-facing-pressure-from-eu-countries-after-expanding-hotel-quarantine-list-1.4536562?mode=sample&auth-failed=1&pw-origin=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.irishtimes.com%2Fnews%2Fireland%2Firish-news%2Fstate-facing-pressure-from-eu-countries-after-expanding-hotel-quarantine-list-1.4536562

NSAman · 14-04-2021 4:18am

So caps are going to be used according to Donnelly. Airlines are going to have to call in advance for places....

As the above letter shows, there are tens of thousands of Irish people here in the states alone wanting to come home. 20 of my own friends got the vaccine(including myself) to be able to travel. Their parent(s) are mostly vaccinated at this stage. So now we are told that the airlines (Aer Lingus for most) will have to implement a no-place-no-fly policy, is that leaving the airlines open to lawsuits themselves? I think the government blocking people coming home is totally breaking the law and may result in court challenges/cases.

It would be interesting to see three or four fully loaded airbus 330’s arrive in Dublin with vaccinated irish citizens.... what the hell would happen?

MadYaker · 14-04-2021 5:50am

bombs away wrote: »

Still have no idea how that proves that the government care what we think at the moment?

This sums up these idiotic restrictions perfectly, own goal by the country as far as I’m concerned.

The government needs the public to vote for them in order to keep their jobs so I’m not sure how you could ever argue that the government don’t care what the people think. Any opinion polls I’ve seen have shown large public for NPHET and restrictions in some form throughout this pandemic.

As regards to the article my understanding is that vaccinated people can still spread the virus so I think until we have a higher % of people vaccinated domestically the MHQ will have to stay. The US has done away with that but they are far ahead of us in terms of vaccination.

bombs away · 14-04-2021 8:10am

MadYaker wrote: »

The government needs the public to vote for them in order to keep their jobs so I’m not sure how you could ever argue that the government don’t care what the people think. Any opinion polls I’ve seen have shown large public for NPHET and restrictions in some form throughout this pandemic.

As regards to the article my understanding is that vaccinated people can still spread the virus so I think until we have a higher % of people vaccinated domestically the MHQ will have to stay. The US has done away with that but they are far ahead of us in terms of vaccination.

I said at present, during an election year of course they care. Any election is years away, they’re pretty safe for now.

Anyone who is vaccinated is at significantly less risk than someone who isn't off spreading it like most of the population of Ireland at the moment who haven't had a vaccine. I'd much rather have people from Israel or the States who are fully vaccinated walking around the streets of Dublin than you or I.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-02-21/pfizer-biontech-shot-stops-covid-s-spread-israeli-study-shows

Nijmegen · 14-04-2021 9:26am

NSAman wrote: »

So caps are going to be used according to Donnelly. Airlines are going to have to call in advance for places....

As the above letter shows, there are tens of thousands of Irish people here in the states alone wanting to come home. 20 of my own friends got the vaccine(including myself) to be able to travel. Their parent(s) are mostly vaccinated at this stage. So now we are told that the airlines (Aer Lingus for most) will have to implement a no-place-no-fly policy, is that leaving the airlines open to lawsuits themselves? I think the government blocking people coming home is totally breaking the law and may result in court challenges/cases.

It would be interesting to see three or four fully loaded airbus 330’s arrive in Dublin with vaccinated irish citizens.... what the hell would happen?

Up till now the courts have been slow to challenge public health guidelines. And as MadYaker says, we don't have definitive evidence as to whether or not vaccines stop the spread of covid - some seem to, others don't. It's the person you might give it to, not your risk that matters if you're vaccinated (as we do know vaccines are basically stopping serious cases and death).

The stay on MHQ places is real public sector incompetence writ large. They expanded the list but didn't have hotel rooms available so paused the bookings? In a city famously short of hotels.

bombs away · 14-04-2021 9:45am

Would be very difficult to refuse entry to citizens of the country especially if they have been fully vaccinated as right to return legislation is a basic principle of international law which guarantees a person's right to voluntarily return to their country of origin or citizenship.

Airlines certainly won't be able to police this.

Whole thing smacks of serious incompetence on the minister involved.

Tenzor07 · 14-04-2021 9:48am

Nijmegen wrote: »

The stay on MHQ places is real public sector incompetence writ large. They expanded the list but didn't have hotel rooms available so paused the bookings? In a city famously short of hotels.

The Zero Covid Lobby has really sent this Government into a spin bringing in the MHQ, even Simon Coveney's brother has spoken out about it:

https://twitter.com/patrick_coveney/status/1382062554130825216

Jack1985 · 14-04-2021 11:02am

Nijmegen wrote: »

We don't have definitive evidence as to whether or not vaccines stop the spread of covid

Christ what planet are you on?? Provide the evidence to support the statement that vaccines are allowing transmission please.

L1011 · 14-04-2021 11:27am

General discussion of stuff like vaccine efficacy needs to be taken to the main COVID forum

14-04-2021 11:29am

Nijmegen would have you believe that every immunized person is a Typhoid Mary.
If there were any meaningful risk then flu shots would have been banned as they'd be spreading the flu, not protecting from it.

This is the level of disinformation that is being pushed on the general public.

edit: posted while moderation note added at the same time.

Blut2 · 14-04-2021 11:44am

Cork Airport to close for 10 weeks to allow major runway reconstruction -- https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/cork-airport-to-close-for-10-weeks-to-allow-major-runway-reconstruction-1.4537022

It makes logical sense to do the runway work this year while traffic is down, but I really can't see this helping to attract business back to ORK. In the time its closed I'd imagine a lot of what remains of its traffic will migrate permanently to DUB.

Covid-19; Impact on the aviation industry

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