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Charts ( Up to T120 ) Autumn 2019 ** READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**
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02-09-2019 7:38pm#1Quite windy and blustery on Weds from a NW direction and feeling cool , more so in Northern counties. Gradient has been tightening over the last few runs, marine warnings and could see wind warnings in Northern counties.
Will definitely feel more Autumnal.
Charts ( Up to T120 ) Autumn 2019 ** READ MOD NOTE IN FIRDT POST**
Mod Note
This thread is for posting / discussing /analyzing charts up to T120 ( in the more reliable time frame).
If your post does not specifically relate to the charts then it doesn't belong here off topic posts will be moved- please use the Seasonal Discussion thread for general chat.
Thanks.10
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Remnants of Dorian look to bring a spell of windy wet weather Tues in to Weds. Currently going by the present charts just looks like marine wind warnings. Not showing very strong winds or much precipitation. This week coming heaviest rain in Western and Northwestern coastal areas.
Note: Met Eireann saying very wet and windy Tues night into Weds, don't see it on the current charts. Will see what the ECM comes out with later.
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Temps up and down over the coming days. Cooler air mass after the cold front goes through overnight leading to a cold night Monday into Tues am and then a warm humid blast associated with the remnants of Dorian bringing temps up to 16 - 17C in the early hours of Weds morning.
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Windy at times but nothing severe showing over the weekend into Monday at this stage. Looking like wet at times and possible heavy rain in places . Mild up until Saturday with temps falling back on Sunday. Some guidance of possible Thunderstorms Sat .
[IMG]httep://imags.meteociel.fr/im/8487/anim_dit3.gif[/IMG]
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ECM has a fair bit of rain showing up for the S and SE tomorrow into Sunday. Heavy rain there late Sat into early Sun morning.
Must be noted that there is a huge variance between the models in what they are predicting for precipitation totals over the coming days.
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The charts are no way certain next week as LP becomes stalled off the W /NW coast for a number of days, windy at times but does not seem to be any severe winds. Predictions seem to be up for more rain over the coming days especially along Atlantic coastal counties.
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Wet and Windy day on Monday, must keep an eye on that area of LP close to the W /NW coast, seems to be wave spawned from the main Low. It is forecast to be deepening slowly a it passes up the coast so might yet get a bit windier.
ECM has it closer than the other models , UKMO has it the deepest getting down to 981 hPa from 988 hPa in 12 hrs but keeping well off the coast, ECM has it dropping from 990 hPa to 984 hpa in 12 hrs.
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I think up to 50 -100mm of rain is possible this week in many areas, the remaining 9 days of September will all be wet, with rain somewhere, if not most places every day. September rainfall totals could easily exceed 100mm in many of our stations by the close of this month, possibly 200mm in some western stations.
Yea, looking very wet for the week especially along Atlantic Counties with big run off from the mountains. LP set to pirouette in on top of us towards the weekend but might not contain too much precipitation by then. Coming into Spring tides next weekend too with one of the biggest tides of the year next Sun so could put pressure on rivers.
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Jean Byrne after the news tonight mentioned potentially very wet conditions moving up over the country on Sat although a lot of uncertainty with track atm. ECM showing a LP tracking in from the SW / W and most of the rainfall crossing the Southern half of the country, any winds at this stage staying along and off the S coasts . ECM showing potentially dropping between 20 and 50mm in less than 24 hrs , most of the rain falling late afternoon / evening into the early hours of Monday it would seem.
To Note very high tides over the weekend.
Another LP crossing next Monday into Tues . ATM looking very wet in parts of the W.
ECM leading the way in rainfall totals in 24hrs
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Just keeping an eye on Saturdays expected heavy rainfall from a LP crossing the country . Not much change in the charts although ECM 0Z earlier took a lot of the heavy rainfall off the S coast but the 12Z has it back in over the South and SE again.
6hr precipitation
24 hr precipitation
Accumulated Total Precipitation
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nacho libre wrote: »
It would be good to see a chart like this in two months time
Or right now
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Rapid ECM 12Z has brought back the rain a bit to about 22.00- 23.00 coming ashore in the SW, shows around 30 mm falling in a large part of Kerry by 10.00 and around 25mm for the rest of it . Rain spreads across the country over the course of the day.
Have the rain gauge's cleaned out
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very sudden and short lived temperature drop on Friday and alot of precipitation, mostly rain and possibly sleet in places. Temperatures recover by Saturday.
Sharp temperature contrast 8pm Friday evening, close to 0C
-2C over Leinster Friday night/Saturday morning
A very wintry mix Friday evening getting down to low levels, possibly heavy extensive snow on the Wicklow Mountains.
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Still looking interesting for some inland and higher areas on Friday. Not enough for Kermit to get excited just yet though :pac:
Latest GFS going for a very cold day throughout the southeast with some snowfall through the day.
There are still differences to be ironed out but a decent enough possibility of a shock to the system for some.0 -
Kermit.de.frog wrote: »Still looking interesting for some inland and higher areas on Friday. Not enough for Kermit to get excited just yet though :pac:
Latest GFS going for a very cold day throughout the southeast with some snowfall through the day.
There are still differences to be ironed out but a decent enough possibility of a shock to the system for some.
even if that happens, will probably be rain/sleet for most of us. Those daytime temperatures for the 3rd week of October are exceptional, we struggle to get those lows even during the height of winter in late December and January.0 -
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Coming into the more reliable time frame for this weekend but a lot of uncertainty still at this stage . Complex areas of LP moving in near and over the country. There is a bit of a trend from the last few runs that most of the strongest winds might pass well to our S into France. But there is still very changeable charts being churned out, so the fine details wont be known for a few days yet. Looking wet at times at least, maybe heavy in places although there seems to be a trend that the heaviest rains will stay S of us. Looking a bit windy on coasts mainly for the moment. One chart from the UKMO could produce strong winds but too early to know for sure. Very strong Jet seems to be trending S of us which might help to bring very strong stormy winds into France around Sunday.
If the Jet moves more North along with the track of the LP then it could bring strong winds into Ireland.
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Well the ECM 12Z came out and eased off on those winds again keeping them more to the S and shifting the heaviest rain to Kerry and W Cork.
American models showing strong winds sweeping in from the W and across the country, gusting 80 to 90 km/h overland and keeping the highest rainfall totals to the Northern half of the country.
ICON similar to the ECM
ARPEGE showing windy on Atlantic coasts but bulk of strong winds staying offshore ( different alignment of LP's altogether to the others ).
MT mentions uncertainty with the complex pattern as those Met Eireann :
'The unsettled showery weather continues through the weekend with a wet and potentially windy day on Saturday with further spells of rain or showers on Sunday. It is expected there will be drier interludes also and it'll turn cold at night as skies clear with the possibility of frost.
There is a higher than usual level of uncertainty associated with the track of weather systems this weekend due to extensive, deep areas of low pressure active in mid Atlantic'.
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Big difference between the UKMO and ECM on track and shape, UKMO would bring windiest weather into the Southern half of the country, nothing too excessive but windy nonetheless, showing huge rainfall totals to Sunday. So nothing clear as yet, potential for strong winds or a miss and the same with rainfall totals.
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Interesting Weds as an occluded front and trough activity crosses Ireland under increasingly cold mid level and upper airs. Also looks like a negatively trough so will be watching for potential thunderstorm activity. Wouldn't be surprised to see hail showers and some wintry stuff on high ground especially towards evening and into Thurs morning . Could be windy along Atlantic coasts at times both Weds and for a time on Thurs depending on the track of those Lows and how they develop.
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