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Charts ( Up to T120 ) Autumn 2019 ** READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

  • 02-09-2019 7:38pm
    #1
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,465 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    Quite windy and blustery on Weds from a NW direction and feeling cool , more so in Northern counties. Gradient has been tightening over the last few runs, marine warnings and could see wind warnings in Northern counties.

    Will definitely feel more Autumnal.

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    Charts ( Up to T120 ) Autumn 2019 ** READ MOD NOTE IN FIRDT POST**

    Mod Note


    This thread is for posting / discussing /analyzing charts up to T120 ( in the more reliable time frame).

    If your post does not specifically relate to the charts then it doesn't belong here off topic posts will be moved- please use the Seasonal Discussion thread for general chat.

    Thanks.


«13

Comments

  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,465 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    All the models atm show Gabrielle dissipating before it reaches our shores just bringing some breezy wet weather moving through fairly quickly probably in the early hours of Thurs.

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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,465 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    Remnants of Dorian look to bring a spell of windy wet weather Tues in to Weds. Currently going by the present charts just looks like marine wind warnings. Not showing very strong winds or much precipitation. This week coming heaviest rain in Western and Northwestern coastal areas.

    Note: Met Eireann saying very wet and windy Tues night into Weds, don't see it on the current charts. Will see what the ECM comes out with later.

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  • Registered Users Posts: 21,815 ✭✭✭✭ Kermit.de.frog


    Currently no big deal at all for us but worthwhile keeping an eye on developments in the next couple of days for TS Gabrielle as there could be sting here at relatively short notice for Wednesday/Thursday.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,498 ✭✭✭ SeaBreezes


    Can someone fix the spelling of thread title please?


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,465 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    Some heavy rain in the W and NW overnight Tues into Weds .

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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,465 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    Temps up and down over the coming days. Cooler air mass after the cold front goes through overnight leading to a cold night Monday into Tues am and then a warm humid blast associated with the remnants of Dorian bringing temps up to 16 - 17C in the early hours of Weds morning.


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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,465 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    Windy at times but nothing severe showing over the weekend into Monday at this stage. Looking like wet at times and possible heavy rain in places . Mild up until Saturday with temps falling back on Sunday. Some guidance of possible Thunderstorms Sat .

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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,465 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    ECM has a fair bit of rain showing up for the S and SE tomorrow into Sunday. Heavy rain there late Sat into early Sun morning.

    Must be noted that there is a huge variance between the models in what they are predicting for precipitation totals over the coming days.


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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,465 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    Going to be hard to pinpoint rainfall accumulations over the coming days , models differ greatly .



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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,465 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    The charts are no way certain next week as LP becomes stalled off the W /NW coast for a number of days, windy at times but does not seem to be any severe winds. Predictions seem to be up for more rain over the coming days especially along Atlantic coastal counties.

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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,465 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    ECM 12Z bringing the LP Tues a bit further N and has a bit stronger winds now for the SW / S and heavier rain in the SW on this run. Still evolving so more changes possible.

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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,465 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    Wet and Windy day on Monday, must keep an eye on that area of LP close to the W /NW coast, seems to be wave spawned from the main Low. It is forecast to be deepening slowly a it passes up the coast so might yet get a bit windier.

    ECM has it closer than the other models , UKMO has it the deepest getting down to 981 hPa from 988 hPa in 12 hrs but keeping well off the coast, ECM has it dropping from 990 hPa to 984 hpa in 12 hrs.

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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 15,180 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Gonzo


    I think up to 50 -100mm of rain is possible this week in many areas, the remaining 9 days of September will all be wet, with rain somewhere, if not most places every day. September rainfall totals could easily exceed 100mm in many of our stations by the close of this month, possibly 200mm in some western stations.


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,465 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    Gonzo wrote: »
    I think up to 50 -100mm of rain is possible this week in many areas, the remaining 9 days of September will all be wet, with rain somewhere, if not most places every day. September rainfall totals could easily exceed 100mm in many of our stations by the close of this month, possibly 200mm in some western stations.


    Yea, looking very wet for the week especially along Atlantic Counties with big run off from the mountains. LP set to pirouette in on top of us towards the weekend but might not contain too much precipitation by then. Coming into Spring tides next weekend too with one of the biggest tides of the year next Sun so could put pressure on rivers.




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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,465 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    Models showing it increasingly wet in the SE /E next week with the ECM / ICON giving a more widespread 30 + mm .


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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,465 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    Jean Byrne after the news tonight mentioned potentially very wet conditions moving up over the country on Sat although a lot of uncertainty with track atm. ECM showing a LP tracking in from the SW / W and most of the rainfall crossing the Southern half of the country, any winds at this stage staying along and off the S coasts . ECM showing potentially dropping between 20 and 50mm in less than 24 hrs , most of the rain falling late afternoon / evening into the early hours of Monday it would seem.

    To Note very high tides over the weekend.

    Another LP crossing next Monday into Tues . ATM looking very wet in parts of the W.

    ECM leading the way in rainfall totals in 24hrs

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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,465 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,465 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    Just keeping an eye on Saturdays expected heavy rainfall from a LP crossing the country . Not much change in the charts although ECM 0Z earlier took a lot of the heavy rainfall off the S coast but the 12Z has it back in over the South and SE again.

    6hr precipitation

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    24 hr precipitation

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    Accumulated Total Precipitation

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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,465 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    Other models rainfall prdicions all showing heavy rain , GFS has a more Northerly track of the heaviest rain, European all quite similar now.

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    UKMO

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  • Registered Users Posts: 47,643 ✭✭✭✭ km79


    No doubt it will be the 4th chart that will prevail


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  • Registered Users Posts: 14,307 ✭✭✭✭ nacho libre


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    It would be good to see a chart like this in two months time


  • Registered Users Posts: 47,643 ✭✭✭✭ km79


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    It would be good to see a chart like this in two months time

    Or right now
    Also good


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,465 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    Storms over the Atlantic, staying well away from us but giving wet and breezy/ windy weather at times, more so along Atlantic coasts.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 8,200 ✭✭✭ Gaoth Laidir


    Not sure where to put this. An interesting page listing the known issues/quirks with the ECM model (IFS). Other models have their own lists too. There is no such thing as the perfect model.

    It's good to keep these things in the back of your mind.

    https://confluence.ecmwf.int/plugins/servlet/mobile?contentId=28328424#content/view/28328424


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,465 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    Not sure where to put this. An interesting page listing the known issues/quirks with the ECM model (IFS). Other models have their own lists too. There is no such thing as the perfect model.

    It's good to keep these things in the back of your mind.

    https://confluence.ecmwf.int/plugins/servlet/mobile?contentId=28328424#content/view/28328424

    Interesting reading. Great to see the ongoing work in research and finding ways to identify and improve where the models under perform . Lot of these projects lasting 4 years , just shows the complexities involved.


  • Registered Users Posts: 25,907 ✭✭✭✭ Wanderer78


    It's good to keep these things in the back of your mind.


    I've always liked that quote from economist Kate Raworth, 'all models are wrong, but some are useful'


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,465 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    Looks like a few places could get a proper frost by tomorrow morning if the sky remains clear long enough. Remaining under a cool air mass for a number of days leading to cool nights.




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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,465 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    Accumulated Rainfall totals up to late Monday night.

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    AROME just up until 19.00 looks quite heavy especially the S.

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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,465 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    Rapid ECM 12Z has brought back the rain a bit to about 22.00- 23.00 coming ashore in the SW, shows around 30 mm falling in a large part of Kerry by 10.00 and around 25mm for the rest of it . Rain spreads across the country over the course of the day.

    Have the rain gauge's cleaned out :)

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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,465 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    French models have taken much of the heaviest rain to Southern counties on the latest runs. UKMO and ICON similar to the ECM on this one, along Atlantic counties anyway.


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