Residential Property Data/Statistics/Reports

Marius34 · 12-05-2020 2:30pm #1

I'm creating a separate thread in order to share and discuss or dispute some Statistics, Reports, Articles etc. on Residential Property
There is a similar Tread "Property Market 2020", but it's extremely fast moving, almost impossible to follow (I lost the track), and with very little information towards Data/Statistics, Reports.

For a start some statistics and comparison of covid vs 2008 crisis on Irish Household & Construction.

1) Housing stock/Population

Housing Stock:
2008/09 - 1,960,000
2018/19 - 2,032,000
https://www.statista.com/statistics/525497/housing-stock-in-republic-of-ireland/
Population:
2008 - 4,485,100
2019 - 4,921,500
https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/er/pme/populationandmigrationestimatesapril2019/
Housing stocks per 1000 population:
2008 - 437
2019 - 413

https://www.centralbank.ie/statistics/data-and-analysis/credit-and-banking-statistics/bank-balance-sheets/bank-balance-sheets-data

2) Construction output:
Completion (inc. social housing):
2006 - 93,4 K
2007 - 78,0 K
2008 - 51,7 K
...
2019 - 17,9 K
2020 - 21,2 K

https://www.housing.gov.ie/sites/default/files/migrated-files/en/Publications/StatisticsandRegularPublications/HousingStatistics/FileDownLoad,20957,en.pdf

3) Household Mortgage vs Household Deposits
Loans for House Purchase:
2008 Mar - 125,091 mil
2020 Mar - 73,351 mil
Household deposits:
2008 Mar - 83,352 mil
2020 Mar - 112,997 mil
https://www.centralbank.ie/statistics/data-and-analysis/credit-and-banking-statistics/bank-balance-sheets/bank-balance-sheets-data

4) Sale Price:
2008 crisis: Property price reached Peak in 2007 Q1/Q2, ant started to fall almost a year before crisis.
2020 Covid: Property prices are overly stable before Covid since 2018.
Daft was the first to report Asking price fall in their 30 March report. Actual transactions still yet to see the Covid impact. Stable before Covid:
https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/ep/p-rppi/residentialpropertypriceindexfebruary2020/

5) GDP/GNP
GDP change: 2008 -4,5% fall, 2009 -5,1% (GNP over -10% for 2009?)
Ideally would be to see GNP change.
https://www.statista.com/statistics/375215/gross-domestic-product-gdp-growth-rate-in-ireland/
2020 current GDP forecast by central bank: -8,3%
https://www.centralbank.ie/news/article/press-release-qb2-2020-3-april-2020

Marius34 · 12-05-2020 10:28pm

Fall 10-20%

Adding opinion Poll, hope it works...

Marius34 · 13-05-2020 3:01pm

Fall 10-20%

Mortgage Approvals 2020 March
Visible some impact of Covid, overall Annual decrease 9,9% Year-on-Year, for March.
https://www.bpfi.ie/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/BPFI-Mortgage-Approvals-Report-March-2020-website.pdf

Mortgage Drawdowns 2020 Q1
In overall there are no much change:
"Mortgage drawdown activity rose in volume terms by 1.8% year-on-year and increased in value terms by 6.0% over the same period."
Where as highest increase comes from FTB:
"First-time buyer (FTB) mortgage drawdown volumes increased by 8.4% year-on-year to 4,400"
Highest decrease from Investment:
"Residential investment letting (RIL) mortgage drawdown volumes decreased by 14.7% year-on-year to 232."
https://www.bpfi.ie/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/BPFI-Mortgage-Drawdowns-Report-Q1-2020-for-website.pdf

In comparison with 2008 Q1, it has similar number of Second hand drawdowns, but around 4 times lower on Total New builds drawdowns.

Year_Q | FTB New | FTB Secondhand | MP New | MP Secondhand | RIL New | RIL Secondhand | Total
2007_Q1 | 3,871 | 4,048 | 3,936 | 3,883 | 2,092 | 3,136 | 20,967
2008_Q1 | 2,786 | 1,542 | 3,137 | 2,032 | 2,147 | 1,653 | 13,299
2009_Q1 | 1,176 | 1,180 | 808 | 1,378 | 215 | 752 | 5,509
2019_Q1 | 1,186 | 2,875 | 610 | 1,730 | 13 | 259 | 6,673
2020_Q1 | 1,411 | 2,989 | 552 | 1,748 | 11 | 221 | 6,932

Pivot Eoin · 13-05-2020 8:03pm

Fall 20-30%

Thanks for this Marius, would be keen to get some engagement going on this to keep it near the top of the Accom/Property Boards- both for the benefit of Relevant stats on the current market, but also to gauge people's views in the Poll above.

WeeCuppaCha · 14-05-2020 10:24am

Fall 10-20%

Bump

Marius34 · 14-05-2020 11:06am

Fall 10-20%

Today CSO published Residential Property Price Index March 2020, this can be seen as the last Pre-Covid transaction report.
Overly property price stable, with minor increase on Year-to-Year basis.
"Residential property prices increased by 1% nationally in the year to March. "
"In Dublin, residential property prices increased by 0.6% in the year to March"

https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/ep/p-rppi/residentialpropertypriceindexmarch2020/

Pivot Eoin · 14-05-2020 6:44pm

Fall 20-30%

Bump: Please answer Poll at the top

Dolbhad · 14-05-2020 6:48pm

Thanks for creating a thread like this!

Hubertj · 14-05-2020 7:13pm

Fall Over 30%

Facts are good. Too many in this forum prefer fiction.

Marius34 · 14-05-2020 8:35pm

Fall 10-20%

I had a look at KBC report published today.
It’s the first Financial institution, that I have seen, which provides forecast for Irish Property price, during the Covid crisis.
https://www.kbc.com/content/dam/kbccom/doc/investor-relations/Results/1Q2020/1Q2020-company-presentation.pdf

Here is their forecast for the Base scenario for Ireland:
Metric | 2020 | 2021 | 2022
GDP | -5.0% | +4.0% | +3.5%
Unemployment | 14.0% | 9.0% | 6.0%
House Price | -12.0% | +8.0% | +5.0%

I understand in current uncertainty it’s very difficult to forecast, but their numbers looks a bit premature to me, if that’s the right term. Property price typically is not as volatile, in other words does not fluctuate that fast. It definitely can happen, in unexpected events, but it’s weird to see it in their base case forecast scenario for 2020 vs 2021.
As well 2020 GDP for Ireland, base forecast is more optimistic than any other reports I've seen, with -5%, whereas for Euro Area their base scenario -11.3%. I can’t grasp how they are getting such massive differences.

Hubertj · 14-05-2020 8:48pm

Fall Over 30%

Marius34 wrote: »

I had a look at KBC report published today.
It’s the first Financial institution, that I have seen, which provides forecast for Irish Property price, during the Covid crisis.
https://www.kbc.com/content/dam/kbccom/doc/investor-relations/Results/1Q2020/1Q2020-company-presentation.pdf

Here is their forecast for the Base scenario for Ireland:
Metric | 2020 | 2021 | 2022
GDP | -5.0% | +4.0% | +3.5%
Unemployment | 14.0% | 9.0% | 6.0%
House Price | -12.0% | +8.0% | +5.0%

I understand in current uncertainty it’s very difficult to forecast, but their numbers looks a bit premature to me, if that’s the right term. Property price typically is not as volatile, in other words does not fluctuate that fast. It definitely can happen, in unexpected events, but it’s weird to see it in their base case forecast scenario for 2020 vs 2021.
As well 2020 GDP for Ireland, base forecast is more optimistic than any other reports I've seen, with -5%, whereas for Euro Area their base scenario -11.3%. I can’t grasp how they are getting such massive differences.

I think slide says situation as of March 31st? Just above tables starting side 21

Marius34 · 14-05-2020 8:59pm

Fall 10-20%

Hubertj wrote: »

I think slide says situation as of March 31st? Just above tables starting side 21

Correct, but it was released today to the press, as well as on their website:
https://www.kbc.com/en/investor-relations/presentations/presentations-2020.html

I guess "situation at March 31,2020", it means based on 2020 Q1 data.

hometruths · 15-05-2020 11:11am

Marius34 wrote: »

I had a look at KBC report published today.
It’s the first Financial institution, that I have seen, which provides forecast for Irish Property price, during the Covid crisis.
https://www.kbc.com/content/dam/kbccom/doc/investor-relations/Results/1Q2020/1Q2020-company-presentation.pdf

Here is their forecast for the Base scenario for Ireland:
Metric | 2020 | 2021 | 2022
GDP | -5.0% | +4.0% | +3.5%
Unemployment | 14.0% | 9.0% | 6.0%
House Price | -12.0% | +8.0% | +5.0%

I understand in current uncertainty it’s very difficult to forecast, but their numbers looks a bit premature to me, if that’s the right term. Property price typically is not as volatile, in other words does not fluctuate that fast. It definitely can happen, in unexpected events, but it’s weird to see it in their base case forecast scenario for 2020 vs 2021.
As well 2020 GDP for Ireland, base forecast is more optimistic than any other reports I've seen, with -5%, whereas for Euro Area their base scenario -11.3%. I can’t grasp how they are getting such massive differences.

The difference in the different impacts relative to the other countries are quite odd as well.

The base case prediction for 2020 GDP Ireland vs Belgium is -5% vs -9.5%; at first glance that looks kind of encouraging.

But they say they this expect to occur alongside 14% unemployment and a 12% drop in house prices in Ireland, vs 6.2% and houses down 3% in Belgium.

And then in 2021 they expect Belgiums GDP to bounce back strongly at 12.3% vs us at 4%.

And that meanwhile Belgian house prices will continue to fall by 2% and that ours will bounce back strongly by 8%.

SO over the three years to 2022 they are predicting that Belgium will have a net gain in GDP with a net fall in house prices and we are the opposite - our economy will be in recession but our house prices will have risen.

Are KBC telling us they think our house prices are fundamentally undervalued? Seems to be the logical conclusion from just looking at their numbers.

Pivot Eoin · 16-05-2020 8:59am

Fall 20-30%

Bump - Please vote on the Poll at Top.

L1011 · 16-05-2020 12:57pm

Pivot Eoin wrote: »

Bump - Please vote on the Poll at Top.

Stop bumping threads

Marius34 · 20-05-2020 5:38pm

Fall 10-20%

Another report with House Price prediction, this one from ESRI.
https://www.esri.ie/system/files/publications/WP661_0.pdf

Unfortunately they don't have base case scenario, but rather 2 scenarios: "V-shaped" & "Sluggish", which I believe would be equivalent of Optimistic & Pessimist scenarios.
In "V-shaped" scenario they see no change in price for 2021 Q4 vs 2020 Q1
In "Sluggish" scenario they see 12% decrease for 2021 Q4 vs 2020 Q1.

Marius34 · 29-05-2020 11:38am

Fall 10-20%

3) Household Mortgage vs Household Deposits
Update for April. It has recorded a big increase in Household deposits (around €3 Billion), details below.
Loans for Private House Purchase:
2020 April - 73,277 mil (decrease -74 mil MoM & -925 mil YoY),
Private Household deposits:
2020 April - 115,978 mil (increase +2,981 mil MoM & +9,699 mil YoY)
https://www.centralbank.ie/statistics/data-and-analysis/credit-and-banking-statistics/bank-balance-sheets/bank-balance-sheets-data

Marius34 · 04-06-2020 10:35am

Fall 10-20%

Mortgage Approvals 2020 April
Published Mortgage Approvals for April. First full month of the Lockdown.
"First-time buyer(FTB) mortgage approval volumes
decreased by 51.0% year-on-year to 1,034 while mover
purchase approval volumes decreased by 51.0%
year-on-year to 528."
https://www.bpfi.ie/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/BPFI-Mortgage-Approvals-Report-Apr-20-for-web.pdf

Marius34 · 11-06-2020 1:55pm

Fall 10-20%

Just reminder, Poll on the TOP of this Thread will close today at 10PM.
This should give an idea of general consensus for this Group.

Hubertj · 11-06-2020 2:49pm

Fall Over 30%

8.2% believe prices will increase!!!!!!???!!!!!
i admire the optimism!

Marius34 · 17-06-2020 11:16am

Fall 10-20%

Today CSO published Residential Property Price Index April 2020.
Overly property price stable.
"Residential property prices increased by 0.5% nationally in the year to April."
"In Dublin, residential property prices decreased by 0.1% in the year to April "

https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/ep/p-rppi/residentialpropertypriceindexapril2020/

Marius34 · 30-06-2020 1:42pm

Fall 10-20%

Mortgage Approvals 2020 May
Second Month of lock-down, as expected April-June should show very low number of Approvals before some kind of recovery.
"First-time buyer (FTB) mortgage approval volumes decreased by 66.2% year-on-year to 852
while mover purchase approval volumes decreased by 67.3% year-on-year to 424."

https://www.bpfi.ie/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/BPFI-Mortgage-Approvals-Report-May-2020.pdf

Marius34 · 30-06-2020 1:50pm

Fall 10-20%

3) Household Mortgage vs Household Deposits
Update for May. It has recorded another big increase in Household deposits (around €1,5 Billion), but not as big as in April.
Details below.
Loans for Private House Purchase:
2020 May- 73,177 mil (decrease -98 mil MoM & -1,123 mil YoY),
Private Household deposits:
2020 May- 117,490 mil (increase +1,483 mil MoM & +10,489 mil YoY)

Pivot Eoin · 30-06-2020 9:32pm

Fall 20-30%

Thanks Marius, very useful reports today.

Marius34 · 30-07-2020 10:05am

Fall 10-20%

Mortgage Approvals 2020 June
Approval slightly higher from lowest month of May, but still only around 50% of Pre-Covid.
"Mortgage approval activity decreased in volume terms by 49.5% year-on-year"
"First-time buyer(FTB) mortgage approval volumes
decreased by 54.6% year-on-year"
https://www.bpfi.ie/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/BPFI-Mortgage-Approvals-Report-Jun-2020-for-web.pdf

Mortgage Drawdowns 2020 Q2
"Mortgage drawdown activity fell in volume terms by 34.8% year-on-year"
"First-time buyer(FTB) mortgage drawdown volumes decreased by 34.8% year-on-year"
https://www.bpfi.ie/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/BPFI-Mortgage-Drawdowns-Report-Q2-2020.pdf

Marius34 · 31-07-2020 12:55pm

Fall 10-20%

3) Household Mortgage vs Household Deposits
Update for June. Another increase in Household deposits (around €0,8 Billion), but lowest increase since lockdown.
Details below.
Loans for Private House Purchase:
2020 Jun- 73,390 mil (increase +213 mil MoM & decrease -1,069 mil YoY),
Private Household deposits:
2020 Jun- 118,301 mil (increase +835 mil MoM & +10,549 mil YoY)

Marius34 · 19-08-2020 10:24am

Fall 10-20%

I have missed prediction from AIB.

This is the base case scenario for their predictions:

Metric|2020|2021|2022
GDP|-7.5%|6.3%|3.5%
Unemployment|10.0%|9.0%|7.1%
House Price|-5.5%|-4.5%|4.0%

https://aib.ie/content/dam/aib/investorrelations/docs/resultscentre/2020/aib-half-yearly-financial-results-presentation-2020.pdf

beauf · 25-08-2020 6:50pm

Decrease 0-10%

Thought there would be more interest in this thread.

The market is stalled at the moment for a variety of reasons. So its in a bubble. So the data comparisons are really only reflecting that pause on economic activity.
It will be while before a useful trend appears. Once the existing pent up demand, and existing supply have been depleted, then we'll start to see to more clearly.
Some of these predictions, especially if they were based on pre covid estimates are largely irrelevant now.

Marius34 · 25-08-2020 8:59pm

Fall 10-20%

beauf wrote: »

Thought there would be more interest in this thread.

The market is stalled at the moment for a variety of reasons. So its in a bubble. So the data comparisons are really only reflecting that pause on economic activity.
It will be while before a useful trend appears. Once the existing pent up demand, and existing supply have been depleted, then we'll start to see to more clearly.
Some of these predictions, especially if they were based on pre covid estimates are largely irrelevant now.

The predictions by KBC, ESRI was create during the full lockdown in May. AIB in July.
I haven't seen any other predictions so far for Irish property on Covid times.

beauf · 25-08-2020 9:12pm

Decrease 0-10%

This has to be based on last year, what happened the last crash and the unpredictable repercussions of the pandemic. Which are still reverberating around the world. So largely unknown.

That said I can't see it being worse than the previous crashes or as quick. I can't see it being v shaped or bouncing back either. I don't believe Chinas reports. So some middle ground in all that.

Which is why comparing all the figures as you have done puts this in context. I think another part of the puzzle is comparing it with the crash.

What do you think.

Marius34 · 25-08-2020 9:27pm

Fall 10-20%

beauf wrote: »

This has to be based on last year, what happened the last crash and the unpredictable repercussions of the pandemic. Which are still reverberating around the world. So largely unknown.

That said I can't see it being worse than the previous crashes or as quick. I can't see it being v shaped or bouncing back either. I don't believe Chinas reports. So some middle ground in all that.

Which is why comparing all the figures as you have done puts this in context. I think another part of the puzzle is comparing it with the crash.

What do you think.

Right, it's very difficult to predict in current situation, but those are not predictions based on the past, but a forward looking conditions. Like for example AIB expect unemployment for next year (or end of 2021) to be at 9%, so the prediction is based on this condition and not past.
I believe they have a hard time currently to make any predictions, as there is little covid data, and things like lockdown does not fall in any of their models.

beauf · 25-08-2020 9:44pm

Decrease 0-10%

I would have assumed that all models have some basis in historical performance.

Since The impact of Covid is not unlike a crash, or some natural disaster, or war etc.

Likewise unemployment https://tradingeconomics.com/ireland/unemployment-rate

Marius34 · 25-08-2020 10:06pm

Fall 10-20%

1) Housing stock/Population

Housing Stock (based on GeoDirectory):
Increased by 16,600 in a year
2019 Q2 - 2,009,089
2020 Q2 - 2,025,732
https://www.geodirectory.ie/getattachment/Knowledge-Centre/Reports-Blogs/GeoView-Residential-Buildings-Report-Q2-2020/GeoDirectory-GeoView-Residential-Issue-13-2.pdf?lang=en-IE

Population CSO:
Increased by 55,900
2019 April - 4,921,500
2020 April - 4,977,400
https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/er/pme/populationandmigrationestimatesapril2020/

Housing stocks per 1000 population decreased:
2019 Q2 - 408.2
2020 Q2 - 407.0

beauf · 25-08-2020 10:09pm

Decrease 0-10%

Not really reflecting lock down yet.

Marius34 · 25-08-2020 10:22pm

Fall 10-20%

beauf wrote: »

Not really reflecting lock down yet.

sorry, this was not response to your previous comment, in case you though so.
I have just found out that there were a new annual stats on CSO about population, so added to updated my very first comment with one of the main indicators.
Yes, it doesn't reflect lock down.

beauf · 25-08-2020 10:27pm

Decrease 0-10%

I realise that. It was just an observation (obvious I suppose) on the figures.

Marius34 · 28-08-2020 3:04pm

Fall 10-20%

Mortgage Approvals 2020 July
Approvals higher from very lows of previous 3 month, but still 34% below Pre-Covid levels.
"First-time buyer(FTB) mortgage approval volumes
decreased by 28.9% year-on-year to 1,883 while mover
purchase approval volumes decreased by 47.4%
year-on-year to 750."
https://www.bpfi.ie/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/BPFI-Mortgage-Approvals-Report-Jul-2020-for-web.pdf

Marius34 · 31-08-2020 2:28pm

Fall 10-20%

3) Household Mortgage vs Household Deposits
Update for July. Another increase in Household deposits (around €1,9 Billion), and as well as increase in Loans (around €0,8 Billion)
Details below.
Loans for Private House Purchase:
2020 Jul- 74,224 mil (increase +834 mil MoM & decrease -323 mil YoY),
Private Household deposits:
2020 Jul- 120,241 mil (increase +1,940 mil MoM & +11,791 mil YoY)

Marius34 · 25-09-2020 8:55pm

Fall 10-20%

Mortgage Approvals 2020 August
Surprising increase in Mortgage approvals for FTB, but overall, including all segments, still 11% below Pre-Covid level.
"First-time buyer(FTB) mortgage approval volumes
increased by 1.4% year-on-year to 2,259 while mover
purchase approval volumes decreased by 17.8%
year-on-year to 1,000."
https://www.bpfi.ie/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/BPFI-Mortgage-Approvals-Report-Aug-20-for-website.pdf

Marius34 · 30-09-2020 7:35pm

Fall 10-20%

3) Household Mortgage vs Household Deposits
Update for August. Smaller increase in Household deposits (around €0,2 Billion), and decrease in Loans (around €-0,1 Billion)
Details below.
Loans for Private House Purchase:
2020 Aug: 74,149 mil (decrease -75mil MoM & decrease -1,497 mil YoY),
Private Household deposits:
2020 Aug: 120,241 mil (increase +243 mil MoM & +11,366 mil YoY)

Marius34 · 28-10-2020 12:13am

Fall 10-20%

Mortgage Approvals 2020 September
It appears Mortgage approvals are close to the record high, since 2008 crisis.
"First-time buyer(FTB) mortgage approval volumes
increased by 33.7% year-on-year to 2,636 while mover
purchase approval volumes increased by 19.0%
year-on-year to 1,191."
https://www.bpfi.ie/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/BPFI-Mortgage-Approvals-Report-September-2020.pdf

Mortgage Drawdowns 2020 Q3
"Mortgage drawdown activity fell in volume terms by 30.3% year-on-year"
"First-time buyer(FTB) mortgage drawdown volumes decreased by 29.7% year-on-year"
https://www.bpfi.ie/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/BPFI-Mortgage-Drawdowns-Report-Q3-2020.pdf

Marius34 · 30-10-2020 2:17pm

Fall 10-20%

3) Household Mortgage vs Household Deposits
Update for September. Monthly Increase in Loans and Deposits.
Details below.
Loans for Private House Purchase:
2020 Sep: 74,402 mil (increase +253mil MoM & decrease -1,637 mil YoY),
Private Household deposits:
2020 Sep: 121,180 mil (increase +696 mil MoM & +11,829 mil YoY)

Marius34 · 07-11-2020 4:32pm

Fall 10-20%

Another forecast on residential property price.
This one from S&P.
Fairly stable across Ireland&Europe for 2020&2021, and increase from 2022.

https://www.spglobal.com/ratings/en/research/articles/201020-economic-research-pandemic-won-t-derail-european-housing-price-rises-11701524

Marius34 · 30-11-2020 1:15pm

Fall 10-20%

3) Household Mortgage vs Household Deposits
Update for October. Another major increase in Household deposits (around €1,7 Billion).
Details below.
Loans for Private House Purchase:
2020 Oct: 74,507 mil (increase +105mil MoM & decrease -1,484 mil YoY),
Private Household deposits:
2020 Oct: 122,917 mil (increase +1,737 mil MoM & +12,593 mil YoY)

Marius34 · 01-12-2020 10:27am

Fall 10-20%

Mortgage Approvals 2020 October
Monthly mortgage approvals reached record high, since 2008 crisis.
"First-time buyer(FTB) mortgage approval volumes
increased by 30.6% year-on-year to 3,041 while mover
purchase approval volumes increased by 3.9%
year-on-year to 1,267."
https://www.bpfi.ie/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/BPFI-Mortgage-Approvals-Report-October-2020.pdf

Reversal · 01-12-2020 11:01am

Fall Over 30%

Marius34 wrote: »

Mortgage Approvals 2020 October
Monthly mortgage approvals reached record high, since 2008 crisis.
"First-time buyer(FTB) mortgage approval volumes
increased by 30.6% year-on-year to 3,041 while mover
purchase approval volumes increased by 3.9%
year-on-year to 1,267."
https://www.bpfi.ie/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/BPFI-Mortgage-Approvals-Report-October-2020.pdf

How does the year as a whole compare? Considering lockdown effects will have compressed mortgage approvals into the months brokers and banks are actually open.

"mortgage approvals are down by 19 per cent in volume terms and 14 per cent in value terms in the first ten months of 2020 compared with the same period in 2019"

So despite the spin, there are less mortgage approved buyers out there than there was in 2019.

Marius34 · 01-12-2020 11:37am

Fall 10-20%

Reversal wrote: »

How does the year as a whole compare? Considering lockdown effects will have compressed mortgage approvals into the months brokers and banks are actually open.

"mortgage approvals are down by 19 per cent in volume terms and 14 per cent in value terms in the first ten months of 2020 compared with the same period in 2019"

So despite the spin, there are less mortgage approved buyers out there than there was in 2019.

Yes, it's lower if we compare a year as a total. There were 41.1K mortgage approvals between 2019 Nov - 2020 Oct. And 48.9K mortgage approvals for the same period year ago.

We don't know how many approved buyers are out there currently on the market.
I would think there are more approved FTB's, than a year ago, but less Mover Purchasers than a year ago.
In total, I think the numbers of approved buyers should be similar to 2019 levels.

Marius34 · 22-12-2020 10:10am

Fall 10-20%

Mortgage Approvals 2020 November
Another month of major annual increase in Mortgage approvals. This time for both FTB and Mover purchase.
"First-time buyer (FTB) mortgage approval volumes
increased by 34.0% year-on-year to 2,826 while mover
purchase approval volumes increased by 23.5%
year-on-year to 1,373."

https://bpfi.ie/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/BPFI-Mortgage-Approvals-Report-Nov-20-for-web.pdf

Marius34 · 06-01-2021 3:56pm

Fall 10-20%

3) Household Mortgage vs Household Deposits
Update for November. Increase in Household deposits (around €0,7 Billion). And large decrease in overall Loans (around €1,2 Billion) likely once-off revaluation.
Details below.
Loans for Private House Purchase:
2020 Nov: 73,324 mil (decrease -1,183 mil MoM & -3,460 mil YoY),
Private Household deposits:
2020 Nov: 123,602 mil (increase +685 mil MoM & +13,330 mil YoY)

Marius34 · 29-01-2021 10:43pm

Fall 10-20%

Mortgage Approvals 2020 December
Another month of large annual increase in Mortgage approvals. For both FTB and Mover purchase.
"First-timebuyer (FTB) mortgage approval volumes
increased by 39.7% year-on-year to 2,139 while mover
purchase approval volumes increased by 30.7%
year-on-year to 997."
https://bpfi.ie/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/BPFI-Mortgage-Approvals-December-2020-for-web.pdf

Mortgage Drawdowns 2020 Q4
Mortgage drawdowns similar to the Pre-Covid levels.
"Mortgage drawdown activity fell in volume terms by 0.9% year-on-year"
"First-time buyer(FTB) mortgage drawdown volumes
increased by 7.8% year-on-year to 6,884 while mover
purchase drawdown volumes decreased by 4.9%
year-on-year to 3,031."
https://bpfi.ie/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/BPFI-Mortgage-Drawdowns-Q4-2020-for-web.pdf

Marius34 · 29-01-2021 10:58pm

Fall 10-20%

3) Household Mortgage vs Household Deposits
Update for December. Increase in Household deposits (around €0,9 Billion). And increase in Loans (around €0,4 Billion).
Details below.
Loans for Private House Purchase:
2020 Dec: 73,770 mil (increase +446 mil MoM & -2,723 mil YoY),
Private Household deposits:
2020 Dec: 124,529 mil (increase +927 mil MoM & +14,064 mil YoY)

Residential Property Data/Statistics/Reports

What will be average property price change by the end of 2021 (vs end of 2019)? 63 votes

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