Brexit discussion thread VIII (Please read OP before posting)

josip · 09-04-2019 9:31am

I find it amusing that today May has finally done what David Davis said they should do initially and gone to Berlin.
Except that she has gone begging, not demanding.

prawnsambo · 09-04-2019 9:33am

It's funny reading the comments on here about Claire Byrne's show. People correctly assessing her as not quite up to the job of pinning down lies - she'll usually give them a free second bite after a challenge. But any comments from the other side of the water are usually along the lines of "Why can't the BBC etc. challenge the lies like she does". We obviously set and expect far higher standards here.

BonnieSituation · 09-04-2019 9:44am

Sam Russell wrote: »

Just to return to the question of the EP elections with and without the UK.

I will use numbers that demonstrate the problem, so bear with me. The constituency has three seats with the UK but four without them.

Let us say we have a three/four seater constituency with 10 or more candidates, but we will only look at the first five candidates and assume transfers from lower ordered candidates does not affect the final running order.

Now candidates A and E are one party, and B and D are another, which means surpluses transfer within the party 100%.

So first count has A=25%, B=22%, C=12%, D=11%, and E=10%.

Now with three seats, the quota is 25% and A, B, C all get elected.

However, with four seats, the quota is 20%, so A and B are elected on the first count. Their surpluses are redistributed so E gets an extra 5% bringing the vote to 15%. D gets B's surplus bring the vote to 12%.

So the final count is: A elected, B elected, with E on 15% - elected, D on 12% - elected, with C with 11% - eliminated.

So three seater gets A, B, C. For seater gets A, B, E, and D elected.

So the conundrum is what happens if the UK gets an extension till say April next year and then leaves. Does MEP C clear their desk in favour of MEP D and MEP E?

I have chosen numbers to show how this can happen, but anyone with experience will remember close fights for the last seat, with recounts changing the result. Often it depends on the order of elimination.

Varadkar outlined that 2 counts will take place for both scenarios.

Enzokk · 09-04-2019 9:47am

Andrea Leadsom has a plan for the PM when she meets with Merkel later,

https://twitter.com/GregHeffer/status/1115521768268161024

https://twitter.com/GregHeffer/status/1115521837646139392

So the plan is to open the withdrawal agreement, I can see that succeeding this time as we are at EU concession time.

Professor Moriarty · 09-04-2019 9:50am

Enzokk wrote: »

Andrea Leadsom has a plan for the PM when she meets with Merkel later,

https://twitter.com/GregHeffer/status/1115521768268161024

https://twitter.com/GregHeffer/status/1115521837646139392

So the plan is to open the withdrawal agreement, I can see that succeeding this time as we are at EU concession time.

The EU to blink and Ireland to be thrown under the bus in 3...2...1...

LeinsterDub · 09-04-2019 9:52am

Enzokk wrote: »

Andrea Leadsom has a plan for the PM when she meets with Merkel later,

https://twitter.com/GregHeffer/status/1115521768268161024

https://twitter.com/GregHeffer/status/1115521837646139392

So the plan is to open the withdrawal agreement, I can see that succeeding this time as we are at EU concession time.

These "rumours" have always been baseless I see no reason to think they aren't baseless now.

It most definitely wont happen unless it's to renegotiate without some of her contradictory red lines .

demfad · 09-04-2019 9:52am

10000maniacs wrote: »

One interesting and positive Barnier comment from todays meeting. Just paraphrasing but he said something like this. "In a hard Brexit, the EU won't do any business with the UK until the Border and the GFA are protected."

Barnier: "Do you choose the Backstop or No Deal Death!"

Brexiteers: "Monsieur Barnier, We would rather choose Death!!"

Barnier: "Death it is then......with Backstop!"

Hurrache · 09-04-2019 9:56am

Enzokk wrote: »

Andrea Leadsom has a plan for the PM when she meets with Merkel later,

https://twitter.com/GregHeffer/status/1115521768268161024

https://twitter.com/GregHeffer/status/1115521837646139392

So the plan is to open the withdrawal agreement, I can see that succeeding this time as we are at EU concession time.

I think those rumours originated from the Brexiters themselves, such as this one
https://twitter.com/GregHands/status/1115317453851111424

lawred2 · 09-04-2019 9:59am

Hurrache wrote: »

I think those rumours originated from the Brexiters themselves, such as this one
https://twitter.com/GregHands/status/1115317453851111424

as per usual he's being taking apart in the replies but the replies never get the same billing as the headline tweet...

it'll be a case of the tweet going twice around the planet before anyone reads a rebuttal..

not that Brexiteers would be bothered reading or absorbing a rebuttal anyway

Mr.Wemmick · 09-04-2019 9:59am

prawnsambo wrote: »

It's funny reading the comments on here about Claire Byrne's show. People correctly assessing her as not quite up to the job of pinning down lies - she'll usually give them a free second bite after a challenge. But any comments from the other side of the water are usually along the lines of "Why can't the BBC etc. challenge the lies like she does". We obviously set and expect far higher standards here.

They're establishment cowed in the UK and it's endemic. Even the Guardian goes gently, gently.. and it's always been like that. In the 90s I remember getting a bee in my bonnet about something and the shrugging-off people did, and continue to do, in response was/is quite staggering.

The French say something similar about the english: get treated like crap and then roll over and to have their tummies tickled.

We Irish say it as it is - honest, open critiques and we queried/question things on all levels. In the UK I am considered a complete pain in the ar$e.. until they want something done and then it's a different story.

Professor Moriarty · 09-04-2019 10:04am

Having threatened to disrupt the smooth functioning of the EU by continuously vetoing everything until the UK leaves, Jacob is now proclaiming that any agreement that May makes with the EU today can be unpicked by the next government. While simultaneously calling the EU liars. Good man Jacob.

Hurrache · 09-04-2019 10:08am

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Having threatened to disrupt the smooth functioning of the EU by continuously vetoing everything until the UK leaves, Jacob is now proclaiming that any agreement that May makes with the EU today can be unpicked by the next government. While simultaneously calling the EU liars. Good man Jacob.

It's been the mood music of late, that future government over there can't be beholden by agreements from previous governments. The simple fact it'll be an international treaty of some sort escapes them.

Peregrinus · 09-04-2019 10:13am

Enzokk wrote: »

Andrea Leadsom has a plan for the PM when she meets with Merkel later,

https://twitter.com/GregHeffer/status/1115521768268161024

https://twitter.com/GregHeffer/status/1115521837646139392

So the plan is to open the withdrawal agreement, I can see that succeeding this time as we are at EU concession time.

Every time, Enzokk! You fall for this one every time!

Seriously, lift your game!

seamus · 09-04-2019 10:14am

Hurrache wrote: »

It's been the mood music of late, that future government over there can't be beholden by agreements from previous governments. The simple fact it'll be an international treaty of some sort escapes them.

So having Brexited, the next UK government will have to declare their intention to exit from the Withdrawal Agreement. This will require a two-year notification period during which time the backstop may be in force, and the UK and EU will have to negotiate a new Withdrawal Agreement from the Withdrawal Agreement, which we can call WA² I guess.

prawnsambo · 09-04-2019 10:17am

Some brexiters have left the reservation completely. Apparently it's all the Queen's fault now.

The replies are gold though.

Tell me how · 09-04-2019 10:19am

The UK hard brexiteers seem to not be able to read the subtle signs of where opinions lie. Macron and Merkel meeting Varadkar recently, specifically with the effort that went in to Merkel meeting border region people and Barnier travelling to Ireland once again is all happening to bolster the impression of the EU standing with Ireland.

It is a choreographed political dance which seems to be completely wasted on many in the UK, hence the likes of Leadsom's comments above.

There are going to be fascinating documentaries and books written about all of this, and we still don't know what the ending is going to be.

lawred2 · 09-04-2019 10:37am

prawnsambo wrote: »

Some brexiters have left the reservation completely. Apparently it's all the Queen's fault now.

The replies are gold though.

these lads seem determined to delegitimize every British insitution

The crown, parliament, the judiciary etc etc

nothing is beyond sacrifice at the Brexit altar

Leroy42 · 09-04-2019 10:41am

I knew it would happen in the end, they have gone after everything else, but finally the Brexiteers now want rid of the queen, or to give the queen unilateral powers over parliament. TBH I'm not really sure what he actually wants.

https://twitter.com/andrew_lilico/status/1115521530480463872

So, the Monarchy can be added to the list of things the Brexiteers want to change about the UK.

GFA
House Of Lords
Judical system
Parliament
PM
Civil Servants
EU (naturally)
Ireland
France
Germany
Media

seamus · 09-04-2019 10:56am

He's really annoyed that an unelected politician whose position is awarded through bloodlines, hasn't massively overreached her legal powers to save the UK from elected foreign politicians who are trying to prevent the UK from shooting its own economy in the face.

So he's calling for the replacement of said politician with "something new", clearly unaware of the irony that without this politician there is no "K" in "UK".

It comes across no more coherent than the ramblings of a vagrant handing out conspiracy theory newsletters in Hyde Park and shouting about mind control and lizards.

Or that guy who believes he's the real Taoiseach of Ireland because he performs some ancient Celtic ritual every year which the Government neglects to do.

Leroy42 · 09-04-2019 10:58am

So what are peoples thoughts on the EU meeting outcome on Wednesday? Will the EU grant a further extension? Will there be amendments to the WA to water down the backstop and thus give it room to pass?

Is the flextentsion idea a runner(seems crazy to me)?

Or will the EU slam the door shut and tell the UK to come back with at least a bottle of wine before they can come into the party?

ancapailldorcha · 09-04-2019 11:01am

Leroy42 wrote: »

So what are peoples thoughts on the EU meeting outcome on Wednesday? Will the EU grant a further extension? Will there be amendments to the WA to water down the backstop and thus give it room to pass?

Is the flextentsion idea a runner(seems crazy to me)?

Or will the EU slam the door shut and tell the UK to come back with at least a bottle of wine before they can come into the party?

I think the EU will offer a longer extension than May wants. They'll also want either a general election or a second referendum to justify it. Allowing the Tories to become more and more unhinged benefits nobody. I can't imagine that the EU will be explicit. It will have to come from May as those are her only options. If Labour run on a People's Vote platform, I can see them repeating Blair's achievement in 1997 when the Tories had drifted too far to the right.

murphaph · 09-04-2019 11:31am

If we have a long delay with Euparl elections in the UK then Brexit is effectively dead IMO.

Leroy42 · 09-04-2019 11:33am

Yes, that is my reading of it. If they accept the EU elections in the UK, which they very much seem to be doing, then why bother leaving at all for the next few years? (that is not of course the only reason not to leave but just yet another reason)

Laois_Man · 09-04-2019 11:36am

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

I think the EU will offer a longer extension than May wants. They'll also want either a general election or a second referendum to justify it. Allowing the Tories to become more and more unhinged benefits nobody. I can't imagine that the EU will be explicit. It will have to come from May as those are her only options. If Labour run on a People's Vote platform, I can see them repeating Blair's achievement in 1997 when the Tories had drifted too far to the right.

This is what I think will happen too - although the Tories won't vote for a General Election until they get rid of May so I'm not sure even a year would be enough!

I would hope Labour would use that time also to replace Corbyn.

With that said, one of the best negotiating factors in favor of the EU is the fact that the UK are totally and utterly unprepared for a hard, no-deal Brexit. Giving them long extensions potentially weakens the EU position in the long term as it gives them the opportunity to get better organized (stop laughing)!

VinLieger · 09-04-2019 11:37am

Leroy42 wrote: »

Yes, that is my reading of it. If they accept the EU elections in the UK, which they very much seem to be doing, then why bother leaving at all for the next few years? (that is not of course the only reason not to leave but just yet another reason)

Indeed and if we have at least 6 month to 1 year delay the only real argument against a 2nd ref or a GE which is the time required goes out the window.

MikeSoys · 09-04-2019 11:37am

so uk government is delaying brexit again ( the more its delayed the softer its getting ( if it happens at all))- but the people did vote to leave so the peoples vote does not matter
...TM folds quicker then Superman on laundry day!!

Infini · 09-04-2019 11:38am

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

I think the EU will offer a longer extension than May wants. They'll also want either a general election or a second referendum to justify it. Allowing the Tories to become more and more unhinged benefits nobody. I can't imagine that the EU will be explicit. It will have to come from May as those are her only options. If Labour run on a People's Vote platform, I can see them repeating Blair's achievement in 1997 when the Tories had drifted too far to the right.

I honestly think it will have to be something along these lines. Britain is utterly paralysed at this point and Brexit is an utter joke and complete scam. Something needs tk give at this point.

Professor Moriarty · 09-04-2019 11:39am

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

I think the EU will offer a longer extension than May wants. They'll also want either a general election or a second referendum to justify it. Allowing the Tories to become more and more unhinged benefits nobody. I can't imagine that the EU will be explicit. It will have to come from May as those are her only options. If Labour run on a People's Vote platform, I can see them repeating Blair's achievement in 1997 when the Tories had drifted too far to the right.

There is one fly in that ointment and his name is Jeremy. At best, he is a soft Leaver. He will do everything he can to ensure there isn't a second referendum and/or that a second referendum isn't in the Labour manifesto.

Zubeneschamali · 09-04-2019 11:41am

Leroy42 wrote: »

So what are peoples thoughts on the EU meeting outcome on Wednesday?

May has asked for an extension to June 30th. The EU will say no.

They'll offer her Tusk's flextension - an extension which ends in 1 year or whenever they ratify the WA. May will have no choice but to accept or crash out on Friday with No Deal.

May's government have already set the EU elections in motion, so there is no real impediment to an extension.

If they are still in a heap in a years time, the EU should offer to renew the flextension to 2100 or so.

AlmightyCushion · 09-04-2019 11:41am

Leroy42 wrote: »

I knew it would happen in the end, they have gone after everything else, but finally the Brexiteers now want rid of the queen, or to give the queen unilateral powers over parliament. TBH I'm not really sure what he actually wants.

https://twitter.com/andrew_lilico/status/1115521530480463872

So, the Monarchy can be added to the list of things the Brexiteers want to change about the UK.

GFA
House Of Lords
Judical system
Parliament
PM
Civil Servants
EU (naturally)
Ireland
France
Germany
Media

So they want to give an unelected official power over their country? Wasn't the whole unelected EU bureaucrats making having control over their country thing part of the reason they want to leave the EU in the first place.

Brexit discussion thread VIII (Please read OP before posting)

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