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Charts ( up to T120 ) Summer to Winter 2018 ** READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**
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Looking like overcast ( Low stratus for a lot of the day ) and damp tomorrow, rain and misty conditions again. Most rain along Atlantic counties. Temps poor along Atlantic coasts bit better inland and warmest the more E ( wonder will the E get a bit of sunshine maybe up until around early afternoon ). Muggy and humid tomorrow.
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Quite a windy Friday night possibly.
Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/
Weather photo portfolio - https://sryanbruen.myportfolio.com/weather-1
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Been watching that aea of LP in the Atlantic W of the Azores for some days. It has been upgraded to subtropical storm status but is set to dissipate within 48 hrs and become embedded in the trough moving E towards Ireland which brings rain and winds to us over the weekend. Earlier predictions were showing the bulk of the rain Fri but this has been pushed back to late Fri into Sat. Amounts have also been downgraded by the models , but still early days. I have observed these setups produce a lot of rain and was thinking it might but maybe not this time. Winds have also been downgraded somewhat at this stage as the system that reaches us has lost its shape and begins to fill becoming occluded and fronts begin to dissipate. Still a few more days of tweaks . ECM and GFS quite similar. the other models have a lot of variation yet.
Feeling mild and humid Fri night into Sat under and behind the warm fronts.
I899
WTNT44 KNHC 071455
TCDAT4
Subtropical Storm Debby Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042018
1100 AM AST Tue Aug 07 2018
The non-tropical low that NHC has been tracking over the North
Atlantic for the past few days has developed subtropical
characteristics and has been upgraded to subtropical storm status.
The tropical-storm-force winds associated with Debby are well
removed from the center as indicated by a recent ASCAT pass and are
occurring within a cyclonically curved band of moderate convection.
Although transition to a tropical cyclone is possible, no
significant strengthening is anticipated since the cyclone will soon
be moving over cool water and become fully embedded within a larger
mid-latitude trough approaching from the west. Debby is expected to
dissipate in about 48 hours or earlier.
The best estimate of the initial motion is toward the north or 355
degrees at 14 kt. The subtropical storm should continue on this
general track with a decrease in forward speed for the next 24
hours or so and then turn to the northeast ahead of the trough,
which will eventually absorb Debby.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 07/1500Z 38.9N 48.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 08/0000Z 41.0N 48.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 08/1200Z 42.7N 48.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 09/0000Z 44.0N 47.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 09/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Avila
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Meteorite58 wrote: »Latest GFS 18Z showing over 25mm of rain for many places in Connaught in 24 hrs between 20.00 Fri and 20.00 Sat .
Is it too soon to start a “will it ever stop raining again thread “
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ECM 12Z not showing the same amount of precipitation as the GFS over the weekend, still showing a decent amount predicted so far. ICON showing a big amount of rainfall for Sat especially the Northern half of the country.
I would not be surprised to see conditions coming close to or exceeding warning level criteria for rainfall over the weekend.
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Tropical Storm Debby got a mention on the Weather Forecast tonight after the News. It will dissipate within about 30 hrs and become absorbed by the system approaching Ireland over the weekend. Although no longer a storm the warm mass of moist air will add to the rainfall amounts. Joanna Donnelly did not give an amount only to mention that Saturday could be very wet, but one could gather by the tone that there is some uncertainty but giving it a bit of caution at the same time.
581
WTNT44 KNHC 082033
TCDAT4
Tropical Storm Debby Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042018
500 PM AST Wed Aug 08 2018
Satellite images indicate that Debby's circulation is becoming
elongated and the low-level center is on the northeastern edge of an
area of moderate convection. A blend of the satellite intensity
estimates, and data from an earlier ASCAT pass yields an intensity
of 35 kt at this time. Debby is already moving over cooler waters,
so additional weakening is anticipated, and the circulation should
should open up into a trough on Thursday. In fact, this is the
solution of the GFS and the ECMWF models.
Satellite fixes indicate that Debby is moving toward the northeast
or 040 degrees at 13 knots. The cyclone is well embedded within the
southwesterly flow ahead of a mid-latitude trough, and this pattern
should continue to steer Debby northeastward with some increase in
forward speed. The track models continue to be in pretty good
agreement.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 08/2100Z 42.0N 47.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 09/0600Z 43.5N 45.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 09/1800Z 45.5N 41.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 10/0600Z...DISSIPATED0 -
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GFS and Icon showing a lot less rain on the latest runs. Models chopping and changing. GFS more in line with the 12Z ECM.
Getting very mild and humid overnight Fri into Sat and mild if not warm on Sat.
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Much reduced rainfall predictions from the models for over the weekend.The LP for the most part stalling off the W coast of Ireland as it fills . Pressure over Europe initially doing a good job of blocking it as it dissipates .The SW of the UK ending up with the heaviest rain as the main Cold front trails up over it, if it were to come closer to Ireland then the E and SE could get a lot of rainfall but the models not showing that atm.
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Not much rainfall over the next 48 hours on the ECM 12z with the west of Britain (particularly south Wales) getting most of it. Southeast looks to be getting between 7-14mm.
Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/
Weather photo portfolio - https://sryanbruen.myportfolio.com/weather-1
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Present charts indicating some windy weather Weds and Thurs as fronts sweep through. ECM 0Z showing plenty of rainfall if this verifies ( Highest along Atlantic coastal counties especially the W and NW ) mostly from Weds and Thurs .
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The W, NW and coastal SW catching some rain during Tuesday . Eastern counties looking mostly dry at this stage. The East may get some light rain or mist and drizzle early as the weak occluded and warm fronts break up and dissipate while heading E. Cloudy day for many. Best in the S and SE.
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It appears that there is considerable uncertainty regarding rainfall amounts over the coming days -
I notice a sizeable downgrade in what the ECM was predicting for accumulated rainfall for the week coming. A lot less rainfall fell than was predicted for last weekend also but that was a very complex messy set up that all the models were struggling with.
sryanbreun posted in the FI thread https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=107778040&postcount=432 stating that the first two weeks in August were difficult weeks for the models. Don't know why this is . Probably best to remain skeptical for now until they get back on track. It seems to me that often during weather transitions from settled conditions to more changeable weather that the models can struggle for a while until they get use to the new patterns. Worth monitoring closely to see how they fare.
Present rainfall accumulations up until Fri Night.
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ECM has upgraded the Total Rainfall up until late Sunday with a spell of rain Sat night into Sun possible with some heavy rain in places perhaps. This spell of rain coming from an area of LP which could be the remnants of a a non tropical low forming which could acquire some subtropical characteristics as outlined by The NHC below. We had the remnants of Debby last weekend but that did not amount to anything but this seems to be moving along quicker which could carry it over Ireland. Worth watching to see if it develops into anything more significant . No winds of note with this, just a warm moist humid airmass .
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Tue Aug 14 2018
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
1. A non-tropical low appears to be forming to the east of the larger
complex low pressure system centered several hundred miles south of
Cape Race, Newfoundland. This new low could acquire some
subtropical characteristics by Wednesday. However, after that time
the low should be moving northeastward over colder waters and be
absorbed by a larger extratropical cyclone.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.
Forecaster Avila
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An indication of some warm and humid weather over the weekend but will need to watch for rainfall . Present ECM 12Z showing wet Sat evening and overnight into Sun morning with much of the rain clearing by early Sunday.
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I'm keenly watching the forecasts for Sunday as I'm playing a two hour gig outdoors from 1PM to 3PM in Dun Laoghaire
It's very uncertain as you say - for example, the GFS precip charts imply that there will be some drizzle during the afternoon, but Met Eireann's rainfall chart on their five-day forecast implies that there'll be no rain at all.
Contrast:
And (2PM-8PM Sunday chart)
And finally yr.no:
It's one of those times I really wish the ECM generated precip charts like the GFS so we could compare. This is obviously symptomatic of the uncertainty ye have all alluded to over the last couple of days, but it's pretty unusual and fascinating to see so much divergence between models on a day which is (just about) within the reliable timeframe as opposed to FI.0 -
hatrickpatrick wrote: »It's one of those times I really wish the ECM generated precip charts like the GFS so we could compare.
You're using the 6hr chart from the GFS, which the ECM does have:
https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/166-w-529-n/precipitation-6h/20180819-1800z.html
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Now named as subtropical storm Ernesto.
By the way hatrickpatrick, sorry I haven't been answering your question in the FI charts thread. I've been busy away working on my site, blog and Twitter.
Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/
Weather photo portfolio - https://sryanbruen.myportfolio.com/weather-1
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Big upgrade now on the ECM 24 hrs total precipitation up to 13.00 Sun, most of which is currently projected to fall between 19.00 Sat and 10.00 Sun.
Most of the rainfall over the Northern half of the country and catching parts of the SW coasts.
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