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Property Market 2020

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    #9722
    GreeBo
    Registered Users Posts: 27,073 ✭✭✭✭GreeBo


    MrMusician18 wrote: »
    Indeed they would have but they're was no indication at that point that price growth would stall. 40% above bottom isn't the cheapest it could be but it is cheaper than every point after that year.

    Holding out in 2014 for the hope of a better price was a poor decision. Holding out on 2019 for a market correction in 2020 was not - all the signs were pointing to the market stalling before Covid was ever a headline.

    I dont think I would every buy a house by timing the market rather than timing when I wanted/needed a house.

    Far too many stories of people stuck renting a decade later with bugger all savings to show for it.


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    #9723
    Marius34
    Registered Users Posts: 1,173 ✭✭✭Marius34


    MrMusician18 wrote: »
    Indeed they would have but they're was no indication at that point that price growth would stall. 40% above bottom isn't the cheapest it could be but it is cheaper than every point after that year.

    Holding out in 2014 for the hope of a better price was a poor decision. Holding out on 2019 for a market correction in 2020 was not - all the signs were pointing to the market stalling before Covid was ever a headline.

    There were no signs of any correction in 2019, the property market was stable not pointing to anything, different believes was pointing to different directions.
    There are plenty stock investors that looking at the historical graph and try to predict future (day traders), normally those ones giving up after sometime. Whereas long term value investors, that doesn't try to catch bottom or tops, normally stay investors for a life.


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    #9724
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    awec wrote: »
    It is pretty important to point out that the people who bought around ~2012, and therefore bought at the bottom, had no idea that they were buying at the bottom, it was coincidental and only became clear in retrospect.

    You can be sure there were people saying that prices were still crazy, buying a house was nuts, just wait a few more years for all the repossessions to really floor the market etc etc.

    I was going to buy in late 2012 but at the time everyone was saying I was mad. I read too much boards.ie and property pin and most people thought further drops were inevitable. It was very doom and gloom then and majority of people thought prices would fall more. I convinced myself that's what was going to happen.

    In 2013 prices started quickly rising and most people thought we were in a dead cat bounce. I bit the bullet and went sale agreed in late 2013 and paid 260k. Just a year earlier a similar house on my road sold for 200k. Current value is about 380k. In hindsight I did well, but at the time I thought I was buying at the top of the market and was sick with myself for not buying earlier.

    What did I learn? That you cannot time the market, despite thinking you know better. What would I do again? I'd buy as soon as I could and move on with my life and forget about it. Especially with rents being so high.


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    #9725
    kippy
    Registered Users Posts: 18,408 ✭✭✭✭kippy


    [Deleted User] wrote: »
    I was going to buy in late 2012 but at the time everyone was saying I was mad. I read too much boards.ie and property pin and most people thought further drops were inevitable. It was very doom and gloom then and majority of people thought prices would fall more. I convinced myself that's what was going to happen.

    In 2013 prices started quickly rising and most people thought we were in a dead cat bounce. I bit the bullet and went sale agreed in late 2013 and paid 260k. Just a year earlier a similar house on my road sold for 200k. Current value is about 380k. In hindsight I did well, but at the time I thought I was buying at the top of the market and was sick with myself for not buying earlier.

    What did I learn? That you cannot time the market, despite thinking you know better. What would I do again? I'd buy as soon as I could and move on with my life and forget about it. Especially with rents being so high.

    This is it for a lot of people. Life is short enough.


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    #9726
    Deub
    Registered Users Posts: 1,285 ✭✭✭Deub


    Marius34 wrote: »
    There were no signs of any correction in 2019, the property market was stable not pointing to anything, different believes was pointing to different directions.
    There are plenty stock investors that looking at the historical graph and try to predict future (day traders), normally those ones giving up after sometime. Whereas long term value investors, that doesn't try to catch bottom or tops, normally stay investors for a life.

    Trader and investor are 2 different things. Both groups have successful people doing it for life.
    The property market is no different. However the issue is when non professional people try to do it. Buying a small property to “go on the property ladder” and knowing you will need to sell to get something bigger within 5 years, is a high risk strategy and most of those who managed to gain from it, did it by luck.


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    #9727
    Mic 1972
    Registered Users Posts: 3,213 ✭✭✭Mic 1972


    Marius34 wrote: »
    There were no signs of any correction in 2019, the property market was stable not pointing to anything, different believes was pointing to different directions.
    There are plenty stock investors that looking at the historical graph and try to predict future (day traders), normally those ones giving up after sometime. Whereas long term value investors, that doesn't try to catch bottom or tops, normally stay investors for a life.


    Q4 2019 was pointing down


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    #9728
    fliball123
    Registered Users Posts: 7,445 ✭✭✭fliball123


    Mic 1972 wrote: »
    Q4 2019 was pointing down

    I think it was more or less steady all 2019 with small drops towards the end but Q1 2020 it came back to what it was. Its hard to know what shape property is in


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    #9729
    Marius34
    Registered Users Posts: 1,173 ✭✭✭Marius34


    Deub wrote: »
    Trader and investor are 2 different things. Both groups have successful people doing it for life.
    The property market is no different. However the issue is when non professional people try to do it. Buying a small property to “go on the property ladder” and knowing you will need to sell to get something bigger within 5 years, is a high risk strategy and most of those who managed to gain from it, did it by luck.

    Investors and long term traders is same thing.
    There is lots research that short-term trading rarely brings profit, you can not catch timing. There are lots scam and fraud involved in day trade.
    Do you know any really rich trader, not a value based, but "day-trader", time catcher?
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stock_trader
    "Day trading sits at the extreme end of the investing spectrum from conventional buy-and-hold wisdom. It is the ultimate market-timing strategy. While all the attention that day trading attracts seems to suggest that the theory is sound, critics argue that, if that were so, at least one famous money manager would have mastered the system and claimed the title of "the Warren Buffett of day trading". The long list of successful investors that have become legends in their own time does not include a single individual that built his or her reputation by day trading."

    Similar with Property (although agree property is easier to predict), but the successful Traders/Investors are typically not the ones that try to catch time, but the ones who try to find good value.


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    #9730
    GreeBo
    Registered Users Posts: 27,073 ✭✭✭✭GreeBo


    I know a number of high frequency traders who of are laughing at that post.


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    #9731
    Walnut Salad
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 34 ✭Walnut Salad


    The Wordress wrote: »
    We were on track to being granted a mortgage and buying our first home Pre Covid. However, because we found our dream house, we did a rush job by only applying through the bank we have accounts with. We then withdrew our offer because of the uncertainty around Covid.

    3 months later, my husbands job is hanging by a thread. We went back to a broker to apply for a mortgage. As soon as he found out that my husband is still on Covid payment, he sent application in as single income family based on my income.

    This was over 3 weeks ago. I don't know why anyone would be shocked by AIBs approach. We knew that banks would be reluctant to lend 2-3 months ago and if we can't get a big enough mortgage, then we will continue to rent&save and hopefully strike while the iron is hot coming out of whatever downturn happens.

    How anyone believes there isn't a major downtown coming is beyond me.

    As I said before, business is down 60% around here. Every business feeds each other around here and incomes are way down.

    Basic economics.

    Good post. You made a prudent decision. The 2008 recession was inevitable and did hit hard especially when many of our young talent had to emigrate. This recession will be way more unpredictable and, for want of a better word, frightening. We wont even begin to understand the impact until the end of the year. Hopefully there wont be a second wave in Europe.


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    #9732
    Assetbacked
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,969 ✭✭✭Assetbacked


    GreeBo wrote: »
    I know a number of high frequency traders who of are laughing at that post.

    You're friends with computers?

    So it's official, there is a massive asset price bubble with Wall Street stocks closing out a record quarter and Wall Street investment banks making massive fees from the Fed's QE.

    https://www.ft.com/content/6d09858e-6dc8-4e74-bbcb-9f837e4aa7c8
    https://www.ft.com/content/84ee3b24-c7f0-44ba-aeba-5ac9c57f810a

    The effect of this is to prop up zombie companies and create an asset bubble as the fundamentals of investing are thrown out the window since the Fed is just guaranteeing investments. However, the money printer will need to print money to put into the accounts of small businesses and entice consumers to spend or else the inevitable is just being prolonged. The US economy is on its knees and the social fabric is being torn apart with the BLM protests. It would be fascinating if it wasn't so frighteningly close to home given our reliance on the strength of the US economy for our own economic growth.

    US property price growth, same thing happened in Ireland. Property crash there, property crash here. Big US tech companies booming, Irish Silicon Docks emerges. US tourists coming to Ireland, tourism booming. US private equity firms with cash to burn, Irish commercial property sector booms.


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    #9733
    smurgen
    Registered Users Posts: 6,933 ✭✭✭smurgen


    Assetbacked wrote: »
    You're friends with computers?

    So it's official, there is a massive asset price bubble with Wall Street stocks closing out a record quarter and Wall Street investment banks making massive fees from the Fed's QE.

    https://www.ft.com/content/6d09858e-6dc8-4e74-bbcb-9f837e4aa7c8
    https://www.ft.com/content/84ee3b24-c7f0-44ba-aeba-5ac9c57f810a

    The effect of this is to prop up zombie companies and create an asset bubble as the fundamentals of investing are thrown out the window since the Fed is just guaranteeing investments. However, the money printer will need to print money to put into the accounts of small businesses and entice consumers to spend or else the inevitable is just being prolonged. The US economy is on its knees and the social fabric is being torn apart with the BLM protests. It would be fascinating if it wasn't so frighteningly close to home given our reliance on the strength of the US economy for our own economic growth.

    US property price growth, same thing happened in Ireland. Property crash there, property crash here. Big US tech companies booming, Irish Silicon Docks emerges. US tourists coming to Ireland, tourism booming. US private equity firms with cash to burn, Irish commercial property sector booms.

    I think it is frightening. Was reading a CNBC analyst factors for the record June quarter close figures 1 was government stimulus 2 was positive trends of the virus.
    These people are in denile and the longer the bubble goes on the harder and more brutal the correction will be.


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    #9734
    Villa05
    Registered Users Posts: 4,513 ✭✭✭Villa05


    smurgen wrote:
    I think it is frightening. Was reading a CNBC analyst factors for the record June quarter close figures 1 was government stimulus 2 was positive trends of the virus. These people are in denile and the longer the bubble goes on the harder and more brutal the correction will be.

    There was analogy with the punch bowl at the party during the last crash and people asking why the punch bowl was not taken away when party got out of hand

    Well now the participants at the party are leg less and the punch is being forced down their throats.

    Lessons learned?


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    #9735
    Villa05
    Registered Users Posts: 4,513 ✭✭✭Villa05


    awec wrote:
    Generally, nicer houses in nicer areas will maintain their value for longer, and will attract more interest. Lesser houses in lesser areas will see drops sooner.

    The data completely contradicts your post with Fingal the best performer and Dun laoighre/Rathdown the worst in Dublin on a growth measurement over the last 12 months.
    If people can't afford current price in high demand areas, they move to areas with greater affordability


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    #9736
    awec
    Administrators Posts: 53,415 Admin ✭✭✭✭✭awec


    Villa05 wrote: »
    The data completely contradicts your post with Fingal the best performer and Dun laoighre/Rathdown the worst in Dublin on a growth measurement over the last 12 months.
    If people can't afford current price in high demand areas, they move to areas with greater affordability

    That’s because houses in DRR had already hit the affordability limits. Of course if you’re looking to measure growth you’re going to see more where there is room for it. But we’re not talking about how the market behaves when it’s growing here.

    If prices start dropping people still buy in the best area they can. Lesser houses in lesser areas will be the first to see lower demand.


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    #9737
    GreeBo
    Registered Users Posts: 27,073 ✭✭✭✭GreeBo


    Assetbacked wrote: »
    You're friends with computers?

    .

    Unless you have some sentient computers that you are keeping to yourself, people are high frequency traders, computers just do the buying and selling, when told to by people.


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    #9738
    GreeBo
    Registered Users Posts: 27,073 ✭✭✭✭GreeBo


    Villa05 wrote: »
    The data completely contradicts your post with Fingal the best performer and Dun laoighre/Rathdown the worst in Dublin on a growth measurement over the last 12 months.
    If people can't afford current price in high demand areas, they move to areas with greater affordability

    How much space for growth is there in DLR compared to Fingal? How many new properties in each over the last 12 months?


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    #9739
    brisan
    Registered Users Posts: 2,242 ✭✭✭brisan


    https://media.myhome.ie/content/propertyreport/2020/q22020/MyHomePropertyReportQ2-2020.pdf

    https://www.daft.ie/report/2020-may-rental-daftreport.pdf

    As the country opens up again, over
    June and July, there will be time to
    assess the economic damage – in
    particular the damage that lasts
    beyond the lockdown. The greater that
    damage is, the more likely it is that both
    sale and rental markets will indeed
    seek out a new lower price level in the
    months ahead.”


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    #9740
    Ush1
    Registered Users Posts: 11,461 ✭✭✭✭Ush1


    GreeBo wrote: »
    How much space for growth is there in DLR compared to finglas? How many new properties in each over the last 12 months?

    Why would you compare a council to a single area in DCC. Did you mean Fingal?


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    #9741
    GreeBo
    Registered Users Posts: 27,073 ✭✭✭✭GreeBo


    Ush1 wrote: »
    Why would you compare a council to a single area in DCC. Did you mean Fingal?

    Yep, auto correct!


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    #9742
    0gac3yjefb5sv7
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,948 ✭✭✭0gac3yjefb5sv7


    Not seeing any slowdown in the Dublin market. Competitive as ever. It's like CoVid didn't happen.


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    #9743
    Villa05
    Registered Users Posts: 4,513 ✭✭✭Villa05


    awec wrote:
    That’s because houses in DRR had already hit the affordability limits. Of course if you’re looking to measure growth you’re going to see more where there is room for it. But we’re not talking about how the market behaves when it’s growing here.


    I know this discussion was had already in this thread but I would disagree. In a recession there is a move away from higher priced (desirable) to lower priced (less desirable substitute). Housing is no different as the affordability range moves downwards.


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    #9744
    SozBbz
    Registered Users Posts: 1,889 ✭✭✭SozBbz


    MattS1 wrote: »
    Not seeing any slowdown in the Dublin market. Competitive as ever. It's like CoVid didn't happen.

    Where are you looking - always interesting to know what market you're in - general area, property type and price range are good to know.


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    #9745
    0gac3yjefb5sv7
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,948 ✭✭✭0gac3yjefb5sv7


    SozBbz wrote: »
    Where are you looking - always interesting to know what market you're in - general area, property type and price range are good to know.

    North Dublin on the DART line. Apartments mainly.


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    #9746
    Markitron
    Registered Users Posts: 3,157 ✭✭✭Markitron


    MattS1 wrote: »
    Not seeing any slowdown in the Dublin market. Competitive as ever. It's like CoVid didn't happen.

    Tbf, anybody predicting a slowdown has predicted it for late this year or early next.


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    #9747
    0gac3yjefb5sv7
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,948 ✭✭✭0gac3yjefb5sv7


    Markitron wrote: »
    Tbf, anybody predicting a slowdown has predicted it for late this year or early next.

    Fair point. But I would say next spring, people will say 2022 will be a bigger dip etc.


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    #9748
    Villa05
    Registered Users Posts: 4,513 ✭✭✭Villa05


    kippy wrote:
    Who votes for government? How many governments have been involved in this? Who are the "super rich"? Not suggesting that the housing situation is a mess btw, but they are the cards currently on the table. Waiting for it to become less of a mess has taken the guts of two decades already (and one would argue that for it to be less of a mess we need to go back to 20 percent mortgages, councils being actively involved in both social housing and provision of mortgages and less people working) ie - define me a time when housing wasn't a mess.
    1st question. The people who are slowly coming round to the fact that Governments do not act in their best interest. Before it was either FF or fg in power, now between them they can't come close to 50%. Slow change but I think they have got the message that if housing is not actioned upon they will suffer more next time. There were many governments but led by the 2 mentioned parties

    2 the hedge/vulture funds that can access all that money printing at 0% rates and are allowed to hoover up distressed assets and not pay any tax on income or capital appreciation from those assets

    kippy wrote:
    So again, what things have you some control over and what things have you no control over? People here saying I am daft to suggest that people look out for themselves and take into account their own personal situation as well as the variables that are: 1. Within their control. 2. Out of their control.

    I understand your frustration. I remember enda Kenny at an international conference, I think it was Davos where the wealthiest most influential people gather to mix ideas.

    He addressed them not long after our crash and basically laid the blame on Irish people going mad buying property for our woes

    Yes there were some who went mad but the vast majority were just ordinary citizens looking to put a roof over their heads watching the price go up and up. That system was created by many of the people he was speaking to that pushes up asset prices

    So in truth I don't blame the people who are buying a house knowing that if they don't buy they will be caught with extortionate rents
    These people are not the problem, they are the victims of a system that's designed to catch them no matter what they do


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    #9749
    Hubertj
    Registered Users Posts: 2,000 ✭✭✭Hubertj


    Villa05 wrote: »
    1st question. The people who are slowly coming round to the fact that Governments do not act in their best interest. Before it was either FF or fg in power, now between them they can't come close to 50%. Slow change but I think they have got the message that if housing is not actioned upon they will suffer more next time. There were many governments but led by the 2 mentioned parties

    2 the hedge/vulture funds that can access all that money printing at 0% rates and are allowed to hoover up distressed assets and not pay any tax on income or capital appreciation from those assets




    I understand your frustration. I remember enda Kenny at an international conference, I think it was Davos where the wealthiest most influential people gather to mix ideas.

    He addressed them not long after our crash and basically laid the blame on Irish people going mad buying property for our woes

    Yes there were some who went mad but the vast majority were just ordinary citizens looking to put a roof over their heads watching the price go up and up. That system was created by many of the people he was speaking to that pushes up asset prices

    So in truth I don't blame the people who are buying a house knowing that if they don't buy they will be caught with extortionate rents
    These people are not the problem, they are the victims of a system that's designed to catch them no matter what they do

    typical irish response - people not willing to take personal responsibility for their actions and they part they played in the last crash/recession etc. WE are world class at it. You keep piping on about different housing models working so well in other countries. Other countries are societally and culturally different to Ireland so it is not as easy to just lift and shift policy. That applies to all policy and not just housing.


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    #9750
    PommieBast
    Registered Users Posts: 2,585 ✭✭✭PommieBast


    MattS1 wrote: »
    North Dublin on the DART line. Apartments mainly.
    Anything near a DART/Luas station will always have that little extra bit of competitiveness. Trouble with apartments is that it is the management company rather than the apartment itself that matters..


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    #9751
    Marius34
    Registered Users Posts: 1,173 ✭✭✭Marius34


    Markitron wrote: »
    Tbf, anybody predicting a slowdown has predicted it for late this year or early next.

    Not really, you may go back to discussions 3-4 months ago. Many saw prices already falling, some saw crash coming in few months.


This discussion has been closed.
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