awec wrote: » It is pretty important to point out that the people who bought around ~2012, and therefore bought at the bottom, had no idea that they were buying at the bottom, it was coincidental and only became clear in retrospect. You can be sure there were people saying that prices were still crazy, buying a house was nuts, just wait a few more years for all the repossessions to really floor the market etc etc.
[Deleted User] wrote: » I was going to buy in late 2012 but at the time everyone was saying I was mad. I read too much boards.ie and property pin and most people thought further drops were inevitable. It was very doom and gloom then and majority of people thought prices would fall more. I convinced myself that's what was going to happen. In 2013 prices started quickly rising and most people thought we were in a dead cat bounce. I bit the bullet and went sale agreed in late 2013 and paid 260k. Just a year earlier a similar house on my road sold for 200k. Current value is about 380k. In hindsight I did well, but at the time I thought I was buying at the top of the market and was sick with myself for not buying earlier. What did I learn? That you cannot time the market, despite thinking you know better. What would I do again? I'd buy as soon as I could and move on with my life and forget about it. Especially with rents being so high.
Marius34 wrote: » There were no signs of any correction in 2019, the property market was stable not pointing to anything, different believes was pointing to different directions. There are plenty stock investors that looking at the historical graph and try to predict future (day traders), normally those ones giving up after sometime. Whereas long term value investors, that doesn't try to catch bottom or tops, normally stay investors for a life.
Mic 1972 wrote: » Q4 2019 was pointing down
Deub wrote: » Trader and investor are 2 different things. Both groups have successful people doing it for life. The property market is no different. However the issue is when non professional people try to do it. Buying a small property to “go on the property ladder” and knowing you will need to sell to get something bigger within 5 years, is a high risk strategy and most of those who managed to gain from it, did it by luck.
The Wordress wrote: » We were on track to being granted a mortgage and buying our first home Pre Covid. However, because we found our dream house, we did a rush job by only applying through the bank we have accounts with. We then withdrew our offer because of the uncertainty around Covid. 3 months later, my husbands job is hanging by a thread. We went back to a broker to apply for a mortgage. As soon as he found out that my husband is still on Covid payment, he sent application in as single income family based on my income. This was over 3 weeks ago. I don't know why anyone would be shocked by AIBs approach. We knew that banks would be reluctant to lend 2-3 months ago and if we can't get a big enough mortgage, then we will continue to rent&save and hopefully strike while the iron is hot coming out of whatever downturn happens. How anyone believes there isn't a major downtown coming is beyond me. As I said before, business is down 60% around here. Every business feeds each other around here and incomes are way down. Basic economics.
GreeBo wrote: » I know a number of high frequency traders who of are laughing at that post.
Assetbacked wrote: » You're friends with computers? So it's official, there is a massive asset price bubble with Wall Street stocks closing out a record quarter and Wall Street investment banks making massive fees from the Fed's QE.https://www.ft.com/content/6d09858e-6dc8-4e74-bbcb-9f837e4aa7c8https://www.ft.com/content/84ee3b24-c7f0-44ba-aeba-5ac9c57f810a The effect of this is to prop up zombie companies and create an asset bubble as the fundamentals of investing are thrown out the window since the Fed is just guaranteeing investments. However, the money printer will need to print money to put into the accounts of small businesses and entice consumers to spend or else the inevitable is just being prolonged. The US economy is on its knees and the social fabric is being torn apart with the BLM protests. It would be fascinating if it wasn't so frighteningly close to home given our reliance on the strength of the US economy for our own economic growth. US property price growth, same thing happened in Ireland. Property crash there, property crash here. Big US tech companies booming, Irish Silicon Docks emerges. US tourists coming to Ireland, tourism booming. US private equity firms with cash to burn, Irish commercial property sector booms.
smurgen wrote: I think it is frightening. Was reading a CNBC analyst factors for the record June quarter close figures 1 was government stimulus 2 was positive trends of the virus. These people are in denile and the longer the bubble goes on the harder and more brutal the correction will be.
awec wrote: Generally, nicer houses in nicer areas will maintain their value for longer, and will attract more interest. Lesser houses in lesser areas will see drops sooner.
Villa05 wrote: » The data completely contradicts your post with Fingal the best performer and Dun laoighre/Rathdown the worst in Dublin on a growth measurement over the last 12 months. If people can't afford current price in high demand areas, they move to areas with greater affordability
Assetbacked wrote: » You're friends with computers? .
GreeBo wrote: » How much space for growth is there in DLR compared to finglas? How many new properties in each over the last 12 months?
Ush1 wrote: » Why would you compare a council to a single area in DCC. Did you mean Fingal?
awec wrote: That’s because houses in DRR had already hit the affordability limits. Of course if you’re looking to measure growth you’re going to see more where there is room for it. But we’re not talking about how the market behaves when it’s growing here.
MattS1 wrote: » Not seeing any slowdown in the Dublin market. Competitive as ever. It's like CoVid didn't happen.
SozBbz wrote: » Where are you looking - always interesting to know what market you're in - general area, property type and price range are good to know.
Markitron wrote: » Tbf, anybody predicting a slowdown has predicted it for late this year or early next.
kippy wrote: Who votes for government? How many governments have been involved in this? Who are the "super rich"? Not suggesting that the housing situation is a mess btw, but they are the cards currently on the table. Waiting for it to become less of a mess has taken the guts of two decades already (and one would argue that for it to be less of a mess we need to go back to 20 percent mortgages, councils being actively involved in both social housing and provision of mortgages and less people working) ie - define me a time when housing wasn't a mess.
kippy wrote: So again, what things have you some control over and what things have you no control over? People here saying I am daft to suggest that people look out for themselves and take into account their own personal situation as well as the variables that are: 1. Within their control. 2. Out of their control.
Villa05 wrote: » 1st question. The people who are slowly coming round to the fact that Governments do not act in their best interest. Before it was either FF or fg in power, now between them they can't come close to 50%. Slow change but I think they have got the message that if housing is not actioned upon they will suffer more next time. There were many governments but led by the 2 mentioned parties 2 the hedge/vulture funds that can access all that money printing at 0% rates and are allowed to hoover up distressed assets and not pay any tax on income or capital appreciation from those assets I understand your frustration. I remember enda Kenny at an international conference, I think it was Davos where the wealthiest most influential people gather to mix ideas. He addressed them not long after our crash and basically laid the blame on Irish people going mad buying property for our woes Yes there were some who went mad but the vast majority were just ordinary citizens looking to put a roof over their heads watching the price go up and up. That system was created by many of the people he was speaking to that pushes up asset prices So in truth I don't blame the people who are buying a house knowing that if they don't buy they will be caught with extortionate rents These people are not the problem, they are the victims of a system that's designed to catch them no matter what they do
MattS1 wrote: » North Dublin on the DART line. Apartments mainly.
Hubertj wrote: » typical irish response - people not willing to take personal responsibility for their actions and they part they played in the last crash/recession etc. WE are world class at it. You keep piping on about different housing models working so well in other countries. Other countries are societally and culturally different to Ireland so it is not as easy to just lift and shift policy. That applies to all policy and not just housing.
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