Storm Dennis Please read Mod Note in OP

Cork Boy 53 · 14-02-2020 1:12am

redsteveireland wrote: »

All this hype with named storms has caused the connacht schools cross country races scheduled for Saturday in Loughrea to be cancelled. If you ask me it is very early to be calling this.

Expect plenty more events to be called off by the end of the weekend. Better safe than sorry.

Donegal Storm · 14-02-2020 1:12am

Looks like some very complex and messy evolution over the next 48 hours with multiple centres each with very low central pressure, should make for some interesting satellite pics!

Storm 10 · 14-02-2020 1:14am

redsteveireland wrote: »

All this hype with named storms has caused the connacht schools cross country races scheduled for Saturday in Loughrea to be cancelled. If you ask me it is very early to be calling this.

So what happens if they go ahead and a kid gets hit on the head by a falling branch or something flying around the place would you take the responsibility in this day and age of claims they are correct.

Gaoth Laidir · 14-02-2020 1:36am

This month so far must rank as one of the lowest average pressures over the Atlantic basin. I'd like to see the anomaly up to now.

watlantic · 14-02-2020 2:03am

Quote: ''Tomer Burg @burgwx:
The upcoming bomb cyclone...''

Language, there Timothy, sorry, eh... Tomer.
Words like 'bomb' should be avoided these days esp.if you want to be taken seriously. It is however shaping up to be a threatening scenario, especially for shipping. Watching the models - we'll know more in another 24-36 hrs. Interesting will be how the lows will interact and where exactly Dennis will march after peaking.

Thepillowman · 14-02-2020 5:44am

Nice and windy here in East Clare something banging woke me up.

redsteveireland · 14-02-2020 7:59am

Storm 10 wrote: »

So what happens if they go ahead and a kid gets hit on the head by a falling branch or something flying around the place would you take the responsibility in this day and age of claims they are correct.

The event was scheduled for tomorrow, Saturday. They have all day today to make a decision. Again the warnings and further forecasts are due today so we will wait and see what conditions will actually be like. What if...

Gaoth Laidir · 14-02-2020 8:48am

There is Dennis at 6 am this morning, 984 hPa southeast of New Foundland. By midday tomorrow it will be 924 hPa south of Iceland, with a messy and potent frontal system crossing Ireland. A filthy day in store tomorrow.

DOCARCH · 14-02-2020 8:59am

Mod Note: As per the OP, we will only have one thread for Storm Dennis (this one), so please keep on topic. Silly and off topic posts will be removed.

ardinn · 14-02-2020 9:36am

Tis bloody windy here in carlow - I thought this didnt kick in tlll tomorrow!

Gaoth Laidir · 14-02-2020 10:10am

ardinn wrote: »

Tis bloody windy here in carlow - I thought this didnt kick in tlll tomorrow!

Today isn't Dennis. It's a completely separate system.

Shane O' Malley · 14-02-2020 10:15am

ardinn wrote: »

Tis bloody windy here in carlow - I thought this didnt kick in tlll tomorrow!

Denis is marked on attachment. Not affect us yet.

mickger844posts · 14-02-2020 11:00am

What a fascinating mess the Atlantic is right now. Unprecedented to have so many deep Low Pressure systems at one time.
On this mornings output ECM showing higher gusts than GFS all weekend.
ECM has been trending to overcook these storms recently so will be interesting to see if the GFS is more accurate again. Met Eireann should come out with warnings later. Heavy rain and flooding may be more of an issue with Storm Dennis.

pauldry · 14-02-2020 11:46am

It looks similar to last weekend so I'd expect

Orange Warning for Atlantic at least

Yellow warning rainfall 20mm to 40mm

Maybe 50 to 60mm in some location

Wev had 82mm since last Friday and rivers in rural Sligo are burst

Urban one near the top of wall at high tides

sryanbruen · 14-02-2020 12:25pm

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

This month so far must rank as one of the lowest average pressures over the Atlantic basin. I'd like to see the anomaly up to now.

As of 11th February:

Credit: NCEP/NCAR.

uck51js9zml2yt · 14-02-2020 12:27pm

I wonder will the sand on Banna Beach be returned to us!!

barneyrub · 14-02-2020 12:28pm

Savage gust just now in Sligo. Really strong. All doors here flew open which rarely happens.

Sligo is saturated already...if we've much more rain I dont know where it will go

Dubh Geannain · 14-02-2020 12:40pm

mickger844posts wrote: »

What a fascinating mess the Atlantic is right now. Unprecedented to have so many deep Low Pressure systems at one time.
On this mornings output ECM showing higher gusts than GFS all weekend.
ECM has been trending to overcook these storms recently so will be interesting to see if the GFS is more accurate again. Met Eireann should come out with warnings later. Heavy rain and flooding may be more of an issue with Storm Dennis.

One theory I've been following is that an increase in charged particles entering our atmosphere will lead to lower lows and higher highs caused by increased current flows in the global electric circuit. The increase being attributed to a weakening of the earths own magnetic field thus allowing in more charged particles from the sun and cosmic radiation from further afield.

munsterlegend · 14-02-2020 1:05pm

Dubh Geannain wrote: »

One theory I've been following is that an increase in charged particles entering our atmosphere will lead to lower lows and higher highs caused by increased current flows in the global electric circuit. The increase being attributed to a weakening of the earths own magnetic field thus allowing in more charged particles from the sun and cosmic radiation from further afield.

Was thinking that myself.

pad199207 · 14-02-2020 1:10pm

Status Yellow - Wind warning for Ireland

Very squally Southerly winds veering Southwesterly with mean speeds 50 to 65 km/hr gusts to around 100 km/hr, strongest on exposed coasts and hills. Winds moderating from the Northwest later.

Valid: 03:00 Saturday 15/02/2020 to 20:00 Saturday 15/02/2020

Issued: 11:00 Friday 14/02/2020
———————————————————————

Status Yellow - Rainfall warning for Ireland

Spells of heavy, locally thundery rain, on Saturday will lead to some flooding.

Valid: 06:00 Saturday 15/02/2020 to 21:00 Saturday 15/02/2020

Issued: 11:00 Friday 14/02/2020

Neddyusa · 14-02-2020 1:10pm

redsteveireland wrote: »

All this hype with named storms has caused the connacht schools cross country races scheduled for Saturday in Loughrea to be cancelled. If you ask me it is very early to be calling this.

Rain and flooding maybe more of a factor than the wind in that

endainoz · 14-02-2020 1:18pm

Flooding will have to be a factor. Ground is saturated already. Rivers still quite high, trees coming down will surely be an issue also.

nthclare · 14-02-2020 1:53pm

Vance Obnoxious Fork wrote: »

I wonder will the sand on Banna Beach be returned to us!!

Is the sand gone?

Love surfing there now and again

spookwoman · 14-02-2020 1:53pm

endainoz wrote: »

Flooding will have to be a factor. Ground is saturated already. Rivers still quite high, trees coming down will surely be an issue also.

Heading towards Dunmore East last night and field near Jaybees had quite a bit of water in it. Noticed the last few days when it does rain it pools a lot more and it's taking longer for the water to drain. Anyone on flood plains would want to think about putting up some defenses if due another deluge.

Remembering the flooding from storm frank near here

RobertKK · 14-02-2020 2:10pm

https://twitter.com/severeweatherEU/status/1228302905842765825?s=20

bazlers · 14-02-2020 2:29pm

RobertKK wrote: »

https://twitter.com/severeweatherEU/status/1228302905842765825?s=20

What wind speeds are they predicting for iceland at its peak?

D9Male · 14-02-2020 2:42pm

Dublin GAA have cancelled all matches this weekend. Both adult and juvenile. I am surprised they have taken this step

Speak Now · 14-02-2020 2:43pm

D9Male wrote: »

Dublin GAA have cancelled all matches this weekend. Both adult and juvenile. I am surprised they have taken this step

Protecting the pitches?

average_runner · 14-02-2020 2:50pm

D9Male wrote: »

Dublin GAA have cancelled all matches this weekend. Both adult and juvenile. I am surprised they have taken this step

Dublin ladies GAA have not cancelled thought :mad:

gozunda · 14-02-2020 4:07pm

I wonder what's the chances the record on last week's storm can be broken?

Experts are hailing a British Airways flight as the fastest subsonic New York to London journey.

The Boeing 747-436 reached speeds of 825 mph (1,327 km/h) as it rode a jet stream accelerated by Storm Ciara.

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-london-51433720

hawkwing · 14-02-2020 4:14pm

gozunda wrote: »

I wonder what's the chances the record on last week's storm can be broken?

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-london-51433720

Must be slow enough going from London to NY

antodeco · 14-02-2020 5:12pm

gozunda wrote: »

I wonder what's the chances the record on last week's storm can be broken?

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-london-51433720

Just realised that's faster than the speed of sound, so would've had some sonic booms!

uck51js9zml2yt · 14-02-2020 5:18pm

nthclare wrote: »

Is the sand gone?

Love surfing there now and again

Ciara stole it.
Same happened in achill a few years ago. Another storm came and put it back

The Nutty M · 14-02-2020 5:22pm

antodeco wrote: »

Just realised that's faster than the speed of sound, so would've had some sonic booms!

No sonic booms because it didn't break the sound "barrier ". The planes ground speed was above mach 1 but it's airspeed was well below mach 1.

Reckless Abandonment · 14-02-2020 5:23pm

antodeco wrote: »

Just realised that's faster than the speed of sound, so would've had some sonic booms!

Dont think a 747 can go through the sound barrier. I think because the wind speed was so fast, it kind of carried the plane to that speed. Could be completely wrong mind you

What Mr Nutty said

Tacitus Kilgore · 14-02-2020 5:25pm

Ground speed ≠ air speed

The air the plane was flying in was moving at a few hundred km/h, so relative to that the plane was subsonic.

seamus · 14-02-2020 5:31pm

antodeco wrote: »

Just realised that's faster than the speed of sound, so would've had some sonic booms!

Technically yes, but actually not. The speed of sound is relative. You're only going faster than sound if you're going 1,200km/h faster than the air around you. This aircraft was travelling about 900km/h faster than the air around it, but 1,327km/h faster than the ground below it.

While it's believed that modern aircraft could be pushed past the speed of sound, there are concerns about airframe fatigue if they were flown routinely like this, so they don't do it.

Tazio · 14-02-2020 5:34pm

Think of the Jet Stream like one of these in an airport... when you walk on one of these at the airport you're still walking at your normal pace, but over ground you're moving twice the speed........

It has been fascinating seeing the momentum of the Jet over the last few weeks.!

RuthieRose · 14-02-2020 5:36pm

Weather Advisory for Ireland
Storm Dennis will bring wet and very windy weather this weekend and into Monday. There is a risk of flooding and damaging gusts.

Warnings for Saturday 15th February have been issued.

Further warnings for Sunday 16th February will be issued on the morning of Saturday 15th February.

Valid: 02:00 Saturday 15/02/2020 to 12:00 Monday 17/02/2020

Issued: 15:00 Friday 14/02/2020

kenmc · 14-02-2020 7:25pm

Supposed to be going to RDS to Leinster match. Not looking forward to it if the forecast is anything to go by...

pad199207 · 14-02-2020 7:51pm

https://twitter.com/aliciambentley/status/1228382807992537094?s=21

aisling86 · 14-02-2020 8:05pm

It's not often the hurricane hunters base themselves out of shannon!

Reckless Abandonment · 14-02-2020 8:35pm

aisling86 wrote: »

It's not often the hurricane hunters base themselves out of shannon!

Is Kermit with them..

that frog gets around

Carol25 · 14-02-2020 8:51pm

Anyone want to hazard a guess as to the warning levels expected for Sunday? Orange for west, and yellow elsewhere? Or if not the warning level, how severe are the gusts expected to be.

Darwin · 14-02-2020 9:00pm

Try several sites and take the average figure for your location (e.g. try windy.com, put in your location and check the different models shown along the bottom to get a rough idea). I'm guessing Orange for most Western coastal counties, Yellow inland. Might get very gusty like last weekend in any convective showers.

Meteorite58 · 14-02-2020 9:39pm

ECM showing Southern counties exceeding yellow warning level tomorrow for a time, showing gusting 110- 120 km/h during the frontal passage.

Is the ECM overdoing the wind speeds, seems to be off kilter for awhile, unusual to see it showing the strongest winds, the odd one out atm.

ICON showing some gusts for a time of 110 to 120km/h , again in S and SE counties but tends to slightly over do it.

ECM and ICON just seem to be too high compared to the Hi Res models.

AROME just up to around 90 km/h at tops overland, bit more perhaps on the coasts but nothing severe.

WRF similar to the ARPEGE keeping strongest winds gusting up to about 100 km/h around the coasts and gusting up to 90 km/h overland with a few pockets inland of up 100 km/h in the W and NW.

So on balance would be inclined at this stage to stick with ARPEGE / WRF

Sunday ECM and ARPEGE is showing it a bit less windy than previous runs. Looks like gusting 100 to 110 on coasts from Kerry to Clare and 110 to 120 km/h from Galway to Donegal and gusts penetrating further inland in the W and NW. Generally looks like gusting 80 to 100 km/h overland. Maybe touching Orange warning in the W.

Might get up around 90 - 100 km/h along S coastal fringes.

For the E looks like gusting 80 to 90 km/h

All just my opinion , and trying to refine my very armature skill of forecasting :pac: !

Meteorite58 · 14-02-2020 10:03pm

Thunderstorm possibility running up along the SW, W coasts tomorrow, lot of shear available, might get a few inland . Sunday a lot of potential around our coasts with cold air aloft and reasonable shear.

Oscar Bravo · 14-02-2020 10:06pm

Also a mention of embedded thunderstorms from Met Eireann

Turning wet and very windy on Saturday with some severe gusts. Outbreaks of heavy rain will extend nationwide during the morning accompanied by gale force southerly winds. The rain will be squally at times with a risk of embedded thunderstorms. Localised flooding is expected with some coastal overtopping along the Atlantic seaboard. Highest temperatures of 9 to 12 degrees.

Oscar Bravo · 14-02-2020 10:29pm

Knock airport TAF forecasting gusts up to 55 knots tomorrow between midday and 3pm in moderate rain. Miserable Saturday ahead

TEMPO 1512/1515 22025G55KT 1200 RA BKN004 OVC008

mickger844posts · 14-02-2020 10:59pm

aisling86 wrote: »

It's not often the hurricane hunters base themselves out of shannon!

She did a test flight on Wednesday and did a number of laps around Waterford at 9000ft. Very cool to see and hear it in the flesh. A very rare bird on this side of the Atlantic.
I would imagine they will make a trip into Storm Dennis in the next few days.

Storm Dennis ** Please read Mod Note in OP**

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Storm Dennis Please read Mod Note in OP